The Twins had a 99.4 % chance to win yesterday's game when they were up 12-2 midway through the 3rd inning. They still had a 99.0 % chance to win when they entered the seventh inning up 13-7, around the time I went to bed. Entering the bottom of that inning, the A's were hanging on to their miniscule 1.5 % chance of victory. Seven runs later, after Matt Holliday's grand slam and Jack Cust's subsequent solo shot, the A's were leading.
Of course, I was most certain the Twins would be victorious when I went to bed. I'm sure this happened to many others, too. When they score 12 runs in the first three inning, hit 4 homers in that same span, and still lead by 6 runs in the late innings, they'll win it, well, about 99.0% of the time. So when I checked in and saw they lost 14-13...it was unbelievably disappointing. And then to watch Michael Cuddyer slide in safely at home only to be called out to end the game? I'm just glad I did not stay up to see it live--I would have been bouncing off the walls in grief and anger.
On the bright side, the next 99 times the Twins play a game like this, we can really expect them to win.