Futility Infielders

Over at SB Nation, Grant Brisbee wrote a humorous piece analyzing the Major League teams based on "how closely their utility infielder matches the Platonic ideal of a utility infielder."  He described a utility infielder as the following:

He's short, scrappy, and probably a switch-hitter, although he can't actually hit. He can field just enough to get by, but not enough to force his way into a starting role. He's not exactly slow, but his SB/CS ratio is often bad and lopsided.

I'd have to disagree slightly with some of that description, but the 'short, scrappy, and probably a switch-hitter, although he can't actually hit' is right on the money.  The Cardinals, thanks to old friend Nick Punto, ranked first on Brisbee's list, while Minnesota came in fourth.  In ranking Minnesota, Brisbee wrote this:

[R]ight now the factory of utility infielder is based in Minneapolis. The factories usually shift every few years because of tax codes and cheap labor and things like that, but right now the Twins are spitting them out. The Twins don't even have scouts for the last half of the draft, they just have experts in utility infielder names. "Go with Tony Mason in the 42nd ... ooh, Andy Rando in the 43rd ... Skip Stansilus in the 44th ..."

It would be funnier if it weren't so true.  Ron Gardenhire, a prototypical utility infielder himself in his playing days, loved no one more than Nick Punto, and has continued that infatuation with Matt Tolbert and others.  Those players who actually have hitting skill and/or potential, such as Danny Valencia, quickly find their way into his doghouse upon making mistakes, while lesser utility players have praise heaped on them.

Brisbee does get it wrong, though, when he also lists Luke Hughes and Trevor Plouffe along with Matt Tolbert as utility infielders.  Tolbert fields well enough, is a switch-hitter, and can't hit a lick, while, despite average speed, also being a sub-par base-stealer.  Meanwhile, both Hughes' and Plouffe's best attribute is their power.  No utility infielder should be able to make that claim.  In addition, both have experienced many doubters in terms of their defensive ability, Hughes especially.

Plouffe has played all over the diamond since his call-up, from outfield to first base to shortstop, but his skill set is simply not that of a utility player, and he's got a good chance to start in a middle infield spot for Minnesota  Meanwhile, Hughes' defense isn't nearly good enough at any position for him to be considered for a spot as a utility infielder.  He much better fits the profile of a bench bat, although he'd obviously have to hit better than he has this year to successfully fill that position.

To sum it up: Matt Tolbert is the very definition of a utility infielder.  Luke Hughes and Trevor Plouffe are not.

Who is Trevor Plouffe?

Plouffe tags out Delmon Young as he tries to stretch a single into a double

Trevor Plouffe joined the Minnesota Twins organization in 2004 as a first-round draft choice out of a California high school.  Chosen 20th overall, Plouffe was immediately anointed the future starting shortstop for the Twins.  About a week later, he signed and reported to Elizabethton in the Appalachian League to begin his professional baseball career.  In that first exposure he merely treaded water, posting a .719 OPS in 60 games with the E-Twins.

That was better than he would perform in his next two seasons, as unproductive full seasons at each level of A-ball in 2005 and 2006, respectively, had a lot of fans doubting Plouffe's chances of contributing at the big league level.  He was plummeting down prospect lists, but his potential and his age kept him relevant.  Still, he moved up another level, to Double-A, in 2007 and showed some improvement.  His batting average jumped by about 30 points to .274, aided by a slightly lower strikeout rate, and his power saw an uptick from the lower levels.  At the same time, he didn't get on base nearly as often because his walks dried up.

Minnesota decided his performance was good enough to warrant sending him to the Arizona Fall League that off-season, a league reserved for some of each team's more developed prospects.  The experience didn't seem to change much, though, as Plouffe returned to Double-A in 2008 and almost perfectly replicated his batting line from the year before.  Once again the Twins thought this was sufficient and promoted him to Triple-A at the tender age of 22.  There, he showcased the same mediocre skill set, save for a lower BABIP which resulted in a lower OPS.

Plouffe spent almost all of the following two seasons at Rochester, demonstrating the same offensive ability each season.  In 2008, his wOBA at Triple-A was .311; in 2009, .315; in 2010, .316.  At this point, Twins fans thought it was pretty clear what they had in Plouffe, and they were fairly disappointed.  Even though he played shortstop, the combination of his defense, which drew less-than-stellar reviews, and his below average offense seemed destined to prevent him from approaching the level expected when the Twins drafted him.  His 44-at bat tryout with Minnesota in 2010 that resulted in a .460 OPS only solidified this fact.

That all changed in 2011, when Plouffe suddenly began to hit.  Back in Rochester for the fourth straight year, his average climbed to .313, by far its highest point in his minor league career, but a higher-than-normal BABIP meant that it was probably bound to fall.  More promising was the power explosion, as he smashed 15 homers in only 192 at bats and had an awesome .323 ISO.  With that performance, he finally got an extended chance with the Twins, though he was initially forced into a utility role, playing positions he hadn't played at all in the minors.

Back at second base and then shortstop regularly with injuries to Alexi Casilla and then Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Plouffe has shown that he may yet have a future as a starter for the Twins.  He unsurprisingly hasn't hit as well as he did at Triple-A earlier in the year, but he has done enough to put himself on the map for 2012 and beyond.  Whether the part-season power surge in Rochester was for real or not, only time will tell, but it will likely determine whether Plouffe grabs and then holds onto a starting job.

Composite Prospect Rankings, #30-#21

I'll continue examining Minnesota's prospects, today delving into those ranked from 21 to 30.

Click to enlarge

30. Anthony Slama, RHP
--roger13 (23): "One of minor league baseball's top relievers throughout his career."
--Seth Stohs (33.5): "Reliever with [a] tremendous K-rate...should be in the Twins bullpen throughout 2011."
Slama struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings and allowed opponents to hit .200 or under again at Triple-A. He's done that at every level in every year of his minor league career.  Ho hum.  He got just 2.1 innings with the Twins this year at the beginning of June, as he was relegated to overpowering minor league hitters again.  He even dropped his walk rate a little there, but no matter.  Now he's dealing with an elbow injury, but at least it looks like he will avoid Tommy John surgery.  Through no fault of his own he will fall on prospect lists as he is another year older.
--Result: Downgrade

29. Daniel Ortiz, OF
--Seth Stohs (19): "My choice for breakout hitter of the 2011 Twins minor league season."
--cmathewson, fan (36): "Skeptical about E-Town numbers, particularly power numbers."
A diminutive outfielder, Ortiz is getting his first shot at full-season competition this year.  His power numbers have not been quite as good, but he's still accumulated 30 doubles and 10 homers, resulting in a .167 ISO.  He's also showed improved plate discipline, upping his walk rate and cutting down on his strikeouts.  It adds up to a performance that has been slightly above average in the Midwest League.
--Result: No change

28. Kane Holbrooks, RHP
--John Sickels (19): "Overlooked... Looks like a sleeper to me."
--Aaron Gleeman (27): "To stick as a starter Holbrooks needs to develop his off speed offerings."
Holbrooks made 7 starts at Ft. Myers last year to end the season, and even started one game with New Britain, but he returned to Ft. Myers this season as a 24-year old.  His numbers have not been as good either,  as he has a pathetic strikeout rate of 4.48 batters per 9 innings, a full 3 K/9 lower than last year at the same level.  He was recently placed on the restricted list for reasons I don't know and hasn't pitched since July 17.
--Result: Downgrade

27. Bruce Pugh, RHP
--John Sickels (21): "Live arm, strikes people out, could surprise if his command sharpens up."
--DJL44, fan (34): "Has a live arm but a 4 ERA in Ft. Myers isn't impressive."
After starting at High-A last season and throwing over 100 innings there, Pugh began the season as a reliever at the same level.  With 27 strikeouts and 6 walks in 24.1 innings, Pugh continued striking out lots of hitters while also harnessing his control.  Upon being promoted to Double-A, though, he struggled mightily, imploding with 8 runs allowed in his first outing (1.1 IP).  In total, he surrendered 16 hits, 16 runs, and 15 walks in 16 innings.  He was then demoted back to Ft. Myers, where he's again been very good, striking out 28 against 7 walks in 19.1 IP.
--Result: Downgrade

26. Tom Stuifbergen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (20): "Raw stuff isn't overpowering, but Stuifbergen throws strikes, misses a fair number of bats, and induces grounders in bunches."
--Seth Stohs (30): "Will move up this list if he is healthy in 2010."
Stuifbergen has stayed healthy this season except for a very brief trip to the disabled list at the end of April, pitching 111 innings for Ft. Myers to this point.  He's given up a ton of hits in that time and has seen a precipitous drop in his strikeout rate, but at least has maintained his pinpoint control, walking only 1.46 hitters per 9 innings.  His ERA is a misleading 4.54, as his BABIP and LOB% indicate he is suffering from bad luck. Still, he's probably going to have to rediscover his strikeout rate to remain relevant.
--Result: Slight downgrade

24 (tie). Trevor Plouffe, SS
--Jon Kammerer, fan (21): "At least a utility guy with the potential to be an average regular if he can make more contact or increase his power."
--Aaron Gleeman (32): "It's pretty safe to conclude that Plouffe simply can't hit... A career as a utility man looks like his most realistic upside."
Plouffe got a cup of coffee with Minnesota in 2010, but found himself at Triple-A again in 2011.  All of a sudden, though, he started to hit.  In just 220 plate appearances, he had 15 home runs and 29 total extra base hits, good for a .323 ISO, which was nearly twice as high as in any previous season.  In addition, he began walking a little more and hit for a high average, something he had never done before.  Of course he is now 25 years old and has spent four seasons at AAA, casting some negative spin on his performance.  His audition in the big leagues has predictably been less impressive, and his defense will prove key to making him a useful player.
--Result: Graduated (Upgrade)

24 (tie). Deolis Guerra, RHP
--Seth Stohs (24): "Has a tremendous changeup and he's got great makeup.  2011 is a big year for him as it is his final option season."
--Aaron Gleeman (34): "Struggled to maintain peak velocity and and ceased being a ground-baller.  He's still young, but that's about all he has left in his favor."
At New Britain for the third consecutive season, Guerra once again failed to live up to his promise as a starting pitcher.  For the first two months of the season, Guerra floundered in the rotation, allowing 49 runs (43 earned) in 43 innings with a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  At that point the Twins shifted him to the bullpen, where's he's been very effective.  He's thrown 43 innings in that role, punching out 55 batters and 5 for every walk, and allowed only 16 runs (14 earned).  Somehow still just 22 years old, it's good to see Guerra finally pitching well in any capacity.
--Result: Upgrade

23. Niko Goodrum, IF/OF
--Kevin Goldstein (16): "A fantastic up-the-middle athlete... he was lost with the bat after signing."
--roger13 (30): "Tremendous athlete who struggled in his adjustment to professional baseball."
Despite hitting .161 with a .414 OPS in 36 games with the GCL Twins in 2010, Goodrum moved up to rookie-level Elizabethton this year.  He hasn't been as bad as last year (how could he be?), but his batting average is still just .239.  His strikeout rate is also high, at 24 %, and his ISO is an unimpressive .094.  If you're looking for positives I suppose they're that that offensive performance is only 13% below average in the Appalachian League and that he's 6-for-7 stealing bases.
--Result: Slight downgrade

22. Rene Tosoni, OF
--Aaron Gleeman (14): "Has consistently been above average at each stop without really flashing any standout skills... could be in line to replace Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer in 2012."
--Seth Stohs (32): "Solid all-around player.  If healthy, he will move up quickly."
In his first taste of Triple-A Tosoni has disappointed.  Just as he was consistently solid across the board at the other levels, he has been consistently below average in every category with Rochester.  He's walking less, showing less power, and hitting for a lower average.  Despite that, he's gotten a couple calls to the big leagues where he's almost exactly duplicated his AAA performance.  He still has a chance to make a case for a spot on the big league roster next season with a month and a half left in this season.
--Downgrade

21. B.J. Hermsen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (22): "He makes up for [a] lack of missed bats with pinpoint control and a fair number of ground balls."
--cmathewson, fan (27): "A marginal prospect in my book.  He never throws harder than 88 with little movement."
Hermsen spent most of the 2011 season at Beloit, essentially replicating his numbers from 2010.  In 124.2 innings, his FIP was exactly the same (3.76) while his K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 were very similar.  He was recently promoted to High-A Ft. Myers where he's made two starts.  The early returns were good, but it's much too soon to make any sort of judgment on his performance there.
--Slight upgrade


Check back tomorrow for the next installment!

*Slama is ranked 33.5 because Seth originally left him out altogether by accident.  Rather than move every player down one, he put Slama at 33.5

Roster Updates

The Twins' roster underwent a minor overhaul during the past weekend.  The acquisition of Matt Capps meant the Twins had 13 pitchers, meaning they needed to cut that number down by one.  Nick Punto also hit the disabled list, which is becoming a monthly-scheduled event now, resulting in the need for another middle infielder.

The beneficiary of the Punto injury is Trevor Plouffe, who will see his second stint in the big leagues this season.  The addition of Capps, meanwhile, forced Nick Blackburn to AAA, after his recent demotion to the bullpen.  I was very glad to see it was Blackburn, and not Anthony Slama, who was sent down to the minors.  I figured the Twins, with their obvious reluctance to give Slama a chance, would have seen enough of him after he gave up runs in two of his first three outings.  Fortunately, that's not the case (at least not yet), and Slama will get more opportunities to show off the dominant form that finally earned him the promotion.

In the  meantime, Justin Morneau continues to very slowly work his way back from his concussion.  He was scheduled to take batting practice yesterday, but will instead do so today.  Apparently the decision to hold off a day was made solely because of the amount of people around during the Twins family day on Sunday.  As a very important member of the Twins, and also a member of one of my two fantasy teams, it's painful to see him work his way back so slowly.  Don't mistake that for me calling him weak or anything; head injuries are a serious issue, but when he originally planned to miss just a few days, it's tough to watch his stay on the disabled list become never-ending.  By the way, he still ranks third in MLB with 5.2 WAR.

A Look at the Rooks

Due to numerous injuries, the Twins have already turned to a number of rookies thus far in 2010. How they've performed has had a big effect on the fortunes of the Twins through the first three months of the season. Here's how each of them has contributed.

Drew Butera- Butera made the Major League roster out of Spring Training because of Jose Morales' injury, and has been pretty much as advertised. He hasn't hit a lick, even considering his clutch pinch-hit homer on Saturday, but he has been solid on defense, throwing out half of ten attempted base stealers. His batting average is below the Mendoza Line, his wOBA is an atrocious .220, and he's walked just once in 43 plate appearances. All of that results in a below replacement level performance, but I have a hard time being disappointed when that's pretty much what I expected from Butera as Joe Mauer's backup.

Alex Burnett- Burnett was a slight shock to make the team out of Spring Training, as it took an injury to Joe Nathan and Clay Condrey to get him on the roster. And even then many fans, myself included, wanted to see Anthony Slama instead. Burnett, however, has quickly become a fixture in the bullpen, pitching both in long relief and in some high-leverage situations. His ERA is very good (2.70), his FIP is solid (3.22), but his xFIP is only so-so thanks to a very low HR/FB rate of 3.0 %.

Danny Valencia- Valencia, who many wanted to see start the year in Minnesota as the regular third baseman, made his debut in early June after Alexi Casilla underwent elbow surgery. Through 43 plate appearances Valencia has exhibited the characteristics that had others questioning his viability as the long-term answer at the hot corner. He's drawn just 2 walks, has a strikeout rate of 22 %, and has just one extra base hit, leaving his .317 average a very empty one. Of course, it's still very early in his career and we may yet see him make the adjustments to become a future big-league starter.

Wilson Ramos- Ramos burst onto the scene with a 7-9 performance in his first two games that also included 3 doubles. After that, however, Ramos slumped to the tune of one hit in 20 at bats to go with no extra base hits and no walks. At that point, Mauer returned from his injury, forcing Ramos back to AAA. Ramos, a consensus top-5 prospect for the Twins, still has some work to do, particularly in regard to his plate discipline, but his hot start is an indicator of what may be possible in years to come (just not with the Twins!).

Trevor Plouffe- In need of a shortstop after Casilla and J.J. Hardy hit the DL, Minnesota turned to former first-round pick Trevor Plouffe. The prospect seemed to finally be putting things together in AAA and was deserving of the opportunity. His time in the bigs, however, has been largely unsuccessful, to put it gently. So far he has just 3 hits in 23 at bats, an on-base percentage lower than his batting average, and an OPS under .300. Obviously it's far too soon to make any judgment on Plouffe's true ability, but the early returns are not encouraging.

Luke Hughes- On April 29th Hughes made his first big league appearance and promptly homered in his first plate appearance. He got the very definition of a cup of coffee, though, as he played in only one more game the next day before heading back to Rochester. In all he totaled just 7 at bats, collecting 2 hits and the aforementioned home run.


All in all, the Twins call-ups have exhibited one glaring deficiency: a lack of plate discipline. As a whole they've batted 147 times, drawn exactly 3 walks, and accumulated 33 strikeouts. That's a walk rate of just 2.0 %! Even Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young would be ashamed of that! If I sounded like a broken record going through their performances, that's why.

Top 15 Prospects

Here's my list of the top 15 prospects in the Twins' organization:

1. CF Ben Revere- 20 (A)
Revere was the Twins’ first round draft pick in 2007, and critics instantly panned the pick of the 5-9 outfielder as a cheap move when he signed for the lowest first-round bonus in years. So far, though, the choice has worked out in the Twins’ favor, whether motivated by money or not. Revere batted .325/.388/.461 with 21 stolen bases (out of 30 attempts) in 50 games for the rookie league GCL Twins after signing, and has put up video game numbers so far this season. In 27 games for Class A Beloit, Revere has hit .418/.468/.589 with a 13:10 K:BB ratio. Revere hasn’t walked much in his brief minor league career, but he’s only struck out 30 times in 332 career at bats. Also, for all the talk of his zero power, a .171 isolated power is nothing to sneeze at, especially for a 20-year old with all the other tools that Revere has. He does need to work on his base running, however, as he’s only 17-27 in stolen base attempts this season. Especially with his 6.28 speed over 60 yards, he should be stealing at a much higher percentage.
If he keeps performing like this, Revere will move quickly through the Twins’ system, but as a 20-year old in Class A, he still won’t be playing in the Metrodome. I could see the Twins promoting him to Fort Myers late in this season if he keeps playing so well at Beloit, but it’s more likely that they’ll stick to their general one-level-a-year rule.

2. RHP Deolis Guerra- 19 (A+)
Guerra came over to the Twins from the Mets in the Santana trade as the high-upside 18-year old minor leaguer. If the Twins had signed him, he would probably still be in EST and playing short-season ball now, but after playing in the FSL last year for the Mets and holding his own there, the Twins decided not to demote him and he started the season in Fort Myers. While his won-loss record looks pretty, he has not been very effective thus far in the season. He has a terrible 32:26 K:BB ratio in 55.1 innings and has given up a ton of fly balls (0.64 GO/FO ratio). The most disappointing thing about those numbers is the decline from last year in the same league. Of course, Guerra is still a 6-5 19-year old who is already in Class A Advanced and has the same fastball and great changeup that scouts loved before the season. It’s weird that much of the #2 prospect’s description was spent on negatives, but that’s because all I have to go on are the stats, which aren’t looking so good this year. With the Twins’ conservative ways, Guerra won’t be heading to New Britain anytime soon (which is unfortunate considering the proximity to my home) unless he truly dominates with Fort Myers.

3. LHP Tyler Robertson- 20 (A+)
Robertson was drafted out of high school as the Twins’ 3rd round pick in 2006. An injury in the Beloit rotation in 2007 gave him his first full season opportunity and he hasn’t looked back since. He dominated the Midwest League as a 19-year old last year with 123 strikeouts in 102.1 innings and a 1.85 GO/FO ratio. So far in Fort Myers, Robertson has picked up right where he left off in 2007. Even though his numbers have dropped across the board, as should be expected for a 20-year old getting his first taste of a new level, he’s been very good in the Fort Myers rotation thus far. He doesn’t have a blazing fastball, but he pairs his average fastball with a great hard slider and of course still has time to improve his fastball as well.

4. RHP Anthony Swarzak- 22 (AA)
After a strong season with Fort Myers in 2006, Swarzak was looking towards continuing his road to Minnesota in New Britain in 2007. However, after two bad starts there, the Twins’ 2nd round pick in 2004 was suspended for violating the league’s (non-performance enhancing) drug policy. Once he came back from the suspension, though, he proved that he was still among the Twins’ best pitching prospects. Swarzak has struck out around 8 batters per 9 innings the last two seasons, and this year so far he has bumped that up to almost a batter per inning. More importantly, he cut his BB/9 rate from 3.7 in 2006 to fewer than 3.0 in 2007 and 2008. Of course, Swarzak has always given up a ton of fly balls, and it has been even worse so far this year, which means that his 4.18 ERA might be a little lucky considering he’s only given up 4 homers in 56 innings. After a great start to the season, Swarzak has struggled lately, but he should still be in line for a promotion to Rochester as soon a spot opens up there.

5. C Wilson Ramos- 20 (A+)
Ramos, signed out of Venezuela in 2004, had a fine season for the Beloit Snappers in ’07, but jolted up prospect lists after his dominant performance in the Venezuelan winter league (I’d post stats if I could find them). The Twins moved him up to High Class A for 2008, and after a slow start he has started picking it up of late. A .236/.289/.421 isn’t very flashy or eye-popping, but it is very solid for a 20-year old catcher in the Florida State League, where his OPS is actually slightly above the league average without even adjusting for the fact that he is a catcher. However, he needs to get more selective at the plate, as his 13:50 BB:K ratio suggests. Baseball America ranked Ramos as the best defensive catcher in the Twins’ minor league system, and scouts rave about his defense as much as his offense. The fact that he’s only 9 for 28 throwing out runners this year disputes that fact somewhat, but I’m willing to trust the scouts who’ve watched him play many, many times over me who’s seen him play for exactly zero seconds, especially when it comes to defense. Ramos should spend the 2008 season in Fort Myers, and possibly even start there next year if he doesn’t get comfortable there this year; he’s still got plenty of time, so there’s no need to rush him unless his play absolutely merits it.

6. RHP Jeff Manship- 23 (A+)
The only reason that Manship is ranked this low is that, at 23 years of age, he is old for the league that he’s playing in. Based on performance alone, the Twins’ 2006 14th round pick out of Notre Dame would possibly be the #1 starter in the system. Manship has been a dominating ground-ball machine since joining the Twins’ system, garnering ground balls at about a 2 to 1 rate over his minor league career. His performance at every level has been exceptional as he has issued only one free pass for about every four strikeouts over the course of his career with an 8.3 K/9 rate. Manship’s ERA this season in Fort Myers dropped to 2.72 after his complete game shutout of Dunedin last night and the ground-ball machine still has yet to allow a home run this season. As soon as Swarzak moves up to Rochester or another spot opens up in New Britain, this college pitcher should move up as he has nothing left to prove at these lower levels.

7. 3B Luke Hughes- 23 (AA)
I had a lot of trouble figuring out where to rank this Twins’ farmhand, and there’s a pretty good chance I’ll end up regretting putting him this high if he turns out to be just another guy a little old for his league who mashes for a couple months after a mediocre minor league career, but he’s turned me into a believer. I simply can’t ignore the ridiculous .335/.407/.618 line he’s put up so far this year that is 37% better than average in the Eastern League, which, for comparison, is the just how far above average Justin Morneau was in his stint at AA New Britain (albeit at a younger age). Of course, I’m not suggesting that Hughes will become anything close to what Morneau is, but it gives an idea of exactly how well Hughes has been playing. Hughes is a versatile player who has played third, second, and all three outfield positions this year. Before this season, he had been primarily a second baseman, but in 2008 he has played 30 out of his 46 games at third. Hughes should be promoted to Rochester as soon as possible, as it’s time to find out if he is for real or just another flash in the pan.

8. RHP Kevin Mulvey- 23 (AAA)
Mulvey is the first prospect on the list to be close to actually helping the Twins, though he still probably won’t be called up anytime soon. The Twins already have an extra starter in Boof Bonser, and with the way he’s been pitching of late, Francisco Liriano is probably ahead of Mulvey if the need for another starter arises. Mulvey has been disappointing thus far in 2008, as his ground ball rate has shrunk and his walk rate has risen 50% from last season (when he pitched mainly in AA). His strikeout rate is very good this year, with 54 K in 61.1 innings, a significant increase from his 113 in 157.2 innings last year in the Mets’ organization. The increase in walk rate and decrease in ground ball rate are hopefully just attributable to his getting adjusted to the new level, and Mulvey still has a good shot of fulfilling his potential as a #3 or #4 starter, though that shot probably won’t come this year (at least as a starter).

9. SS Trevor Plouffe- 21 (AA)
The Twins’ first round pick in 2004 has made his way into a lot of discussions about the Twins’ future shortstop plans, but I’m not as high as him as others are despite his #9 ranking. His youth and decent play in a higher level get him ranked ahead of other, younger prospects like Deibinson Romero and Danny Valencia, but I just don’t think his ceiling is very high. To me, he has a good chance of playing in the majors, but does not have the potential of turning into anything more than an average player that someone like Romero has. So far in 2008, Plouffe has performed remarkably similarly to his play last season, which was also in AA. If he showed some improvement over last year, I would believe in his higher ceiling, but his .274/.326/.410 line is almost exactly the same as the .275/.335/.415 that he’s hitting this year. In addition, his plate discipline has improved only marginally (IsoD increased by 8 points), while his BB:K ratio has decreased slightly from 0.43 to 0.37. Of course, I’m focusing only on the negatives. The positive side is that Plouffe is a soon-to-be 22 year old shortstop who has held his own in AA for two years now, and has a very good chance to play with the Twins by the end of next year, though it may be as a backup or role player rather than starter.

10. 3B Deibinson (D.J.) Romero- 21 (A)
Romero is only three months younger than Plouffe, yet is two levels behind him; this is more of a credit to Plouffe than a knock on Romero. Romero, though, has put up excellent numbers thus far in his minor league career. He led the rookie-league Elizabethton Twins to a 50-18 record with his .316/.406/.506 hitting line. He began 2008 with Beloit, but got injured after playing in 17 games, which is too small of a sample to read anything into (though his .214/.242/.339 line was not very pretty). The driving force behind Romero’s breakout year at Elizabethton was his improved pitch selection and plate discipline. After sporting a 1:3 BB:K ratio and about a .065 isolated discipline in his first two minor league seasons, he cut his BB:K ratio to 1:1.4 and upped his IsoD to .080. Romero plays solid defense at third, and projects to be able to play it all the way to the majors if he makes it there. Right now, let’s just hope that he recovers from his injury so he can get back to the field and continue moving up the prospect list.

11. OF/1B Chris Parmelee- 20 (A)

12. OF Joe Benson- 20 (A)

13. 3B Danny Valencia- 23 (A+)

14. RHP Anthony Slama- 24 (A+)

15. OF Rene Tosoni- 21 (A+)

The MLB draft is Thursday at 2 PM, and I hope to have some sort of preview done by Thursday morning. Luckily for me, I'm sure no one reading this actually cares about the draft, so no one will be dissapointed if I don't do it (I'd be happy if someone actually scrolled down far enough to read this).