Adam Dunn Chases History

You've been reading all year about how terrible Adam Dunn has been.  What's the root of the problem?  Will he re-discover his stroke next year?  Will he retire?  Is this the worst season of all-time given that he plays designated hitter?  Is it the most inexplicable drop-off in performance ever?  Was he the worst free agent signing ever?

Dunn reacts after striking out... again.

Those questions may be answered in the future, and some may never be answered.  But there is one we will have a definite answer to in less than a week: will Adam Dunn break the record for lowest batting average for a player who qualified for the batting title in the modern era (since 1900)?

Here, I am using the modern definition of qualifying for the batting title, which is a minimum of 3.1 PA per team game.  In the past, other standards have been used, including playing in 60% of team games prior to 1920.  Bill Bergen qualified at the time with a .139 average in 1909, and again in 1906 at .159, for the lowest batting averages of the modern era.  However, in both of those years he wouldn't have been particularly close to being eligible for the batting title according to the modern standard, as he only averaged around 2.4 PA per team game in both seasons.

Here's a full list of the worst qualified batting averages of the modern era:

Click to enlarge

Even if you don't care for that bit of posturing, Dunn at the very least is looking to claim the lowest qualified batting average--period--since 1910.

After yet another hitless game yesterday, Dunn's average currently rests at .163 through 481 plate appearances.  The White Sox have five games remaining, and Dunn needs to hit the 502 mark to qualify for the batting title.  That's a tall task, as he needs to come to the plate 21 times in that span.  Considering that he's only averaging 3.06 plate appearances per team game thus far, and has only appeared in 75 percent of Chicago's games on the year, it wouldn't appear likely.

Of course, it's much more telling to look at how much he has been playing lately to determine if he will crack the barrier.  After playing sporadically through the first half of September, Dunn has been in the lineup each of the last 8 games--including both games of a doubleheader on September 20--and has accumulated 33 trips to the plate in the process.  That's exactly what he would need to do over the next five days to make history, so it looks like Ozzie Guillen is doing his part.

If Dunn makes it to the mark, he's already essentially clinched the worst qualified average since 1914.  Rob Deer owns that honor for the time being, with a .179 average in 1991.  In order to overcome that, Dunn would have to do something like get 10 hits in 20 at bats to end the year, which would bring him up to .179.  Congratulations Rob, it seems as if you are out of the ignominious record book.  And before Dunn, Deer had had a stranglehold on the record, as .194 was the second-worst qualified mark since 1950, and .185 was the second-worst qualified mark since 1920.

If he merely stays at .163, Dunn will have the fourth-worst qualified average since 1900, the worst since 1910, and the absolute worst using today's 3.1 PA/team game standard for qualification.  He's got a very good chance to move into third-worst place since 1910 if he can merely put together a 2-for-16 stretch together to end the season, and if he can do something along the lines of 1-for-20 he can nab the second-worst average of the modern era.

Today the White Sox go against Royals lefty Everett Teaford, which may mean Dunn will be out of the lineup.  That would cripple his chances of reaching the 502-plate appearance plateau.  After that it's all righthanders, so let's hope Ozzie sees this opportunity for what its worth.

Only 7 players since 1950 have managed to hit under .200 while coming to the plate often enough to qualify for the batting title.  Since 1920, that number is 14.  Adam Dunn has a chance to blow them all away.  While the Twins fight against the current sweeping them towards an embarrassing 100 losses, Adam Dunn is faced with the potential of holding a much more ignominious place in baseball history.

An Even Rockier Bottom

Just when it seems like things can't get any worse, they do.  Never say never with the Twins this year, as they continue to surpass their low point, time after time.

On Monday, they lost both games of a doubleheader to Chicago.  Anthony Swarzak gave Minnesota a very strong start in the early session, going seven innings and allowing only two runs.  It wasn't enough, though, as the Twins didn't give him any support, scoring just one run in the game.  With runners on the corners in the ninth inning, Luke Hughes lined out to left field for a sacrifice fly, putting the Twins on the board.

Who would have thought that that would be the best game, and the only run, the Twins would score in the first three games of the series?  I suppose if you've been following the season closely, it might have been a logical guess.

In the night half of the doubleheader, Zach Stewart, who came into the game with a 5.48 ERA on the season, made it through 7 innings before he allowed a baserunner.  Danny Valencia broke up the perfect game with a double in the eighth inning, but Stewart went the distance, surrendering the one hit and striking out 9 Minnesota hitters.

Scoring one run across two games, and nearly getting no hit in the second had one positive outcome: Tuesday's game would have to be better.  Instead, the Twins got shut out yet again.

In that game, three Twins made their Major League debuts.  Liam Hendriks got the start, and pitched admirably, throwing seven innings and giving up just four hits.  He made one mistake to Alex Rios, who capitalized and hit a home run, but otherwise he looked quite good, though he did manage to let Adam Dunn on base twice.


Joe Benson didn't help Hendriks out on defense, as he made an ill-advised diving attempt on a Alejandro De Aza liner, letting the ball roll to the wall and De Aza to reach third base.  He didn't pick up a hit either, although he did draw a walk in a long at bat to lead off the game.  Obviously one game is essentially meaningless, so I am excited to see more of what Benson has to offer.

Chris Parmelee also debuted, and he had two fliners drop into centerfield for hits in his first two plate appearances.  He ended the game 2-4 and should see many more opportunities in the waning weeks of the season.

But the Twins as a whole looked ugly, at best.  They went 0-10 with runners in scoring position.  They struck out 14 times.  They are now in last place, behind even the lowly Kansas City Royals, and have been officially eliminated from playoff contention.  If they win their final 21 games, they will tie their worst record under Ron Gardenhire.  They have lost--outright lost, not tied--their last 7 home series, including holding a record of 3-21 in their previous 24 home games.  They have won only 2 series period since the All-Star break.

So, please, next time you write a whole article about how being swept by Baltimore at home, while scoring 4 runs total, is the most embarrassing series Minnesota has ever played, keep in mind that they'll be trying to outdo themselves just two weeks later.

White Sox Put Hurt on Twins

It was a rough night for the Twins, and Carl Pavano in particular.  Pavano got absolutely pounded by the White Sox, allowing 15 hits in 6+ plus innings of work.  I almost had the feeling Livan Hernandez was back as the balls kept falling in.  Somehow Pavano had actually only thrown 87 pitches before he was removed with nobody out in the seventh.  I'm sure Ron Gardenhire wanted to save the bullpen after Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker's short outings the previous two nights, but at that point enough was enough, despite the relatively low pitch count.

A lot of people will point to the fact that so many batted balls fell in for hits and say that Pavano was a victim of an unlucky BABIP this afternoon.  And of course he was--you don't give up 15 hits without getting unfortunate, no matter how badly you're pitching.  But I don't like to blame bad performances on BABIP in such a small sample, especially when Pavano wasn't fooling anybody on his pitches yesterday.  In a case where there really are a bunch of bloops and bleeders that find holes I might point it out, and there were certainly some of those, but balls were flying all over Target Field while Pavano was out there.

Pavano's feat, however, is pretty rare.  It's not easy to give up 15 hits, because most managers will have seen enough well before the pitcher gets to that point.  In fact, only 21 pitchers have allowed at least 15 hits in a game since 1990 (3 of them allowed 16), making it rarer than a no-hitter over that span.  Pavano was able to do it because of his low pitch count and, considering the hit total, low number of runs allowed.  In fact, Brad Radke is the only pitcher to ever allow at least 15 hits with fewer pitches (86) than Pavano.  Now, they haven't always recorded pitch counts, so I don't know how many years back it goes, but it's still impressive.  Pavano kept his pitch count low by walking no one, one of only three players to allow 15 hits and walk no one in a game since 1990.  Radke is also the other one to accomplish that.

Meanwhile, Nick Punto injured himself in the game, and is currently doing his best Carl Pavano circa 2005-2008 impression.  He was placed on the disabled list and Matt Tolbert (a.k.a. Nick Punto Lite or Black Holebert) was recalled from AAA.  Punto's now missed time on four separate occasions in 2010: the second half of April, about a week in late May, the past few weeks, and now this time.  With J.J. Hardy, Orlando Hudson, Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, and Tolbert also unable to play for various amount of time, it's meant a lot of shuffling around the infield for the whole year.  Let's hope everyone can get healthy for the stretch run, especially Morneau.

Jim Thome Beats Former Team (and other ramblings)

It was an interesting night for the Twins.  First, the offense jumped on John Danks, scoring 4 runs in the first inning.  Scott Baker responded by giving back 3 runs in the next half-inning and only managed to make it through 4 2/3 pretty miserable innings.  That was the last straw, as I finally had to jettison him from my fantasy team.  I showed a lot of faith and really wanted to hang on to him, but I could no longer justify rostering him.

After Matt Capps blew a save in the 9th and Jon Rauch gave the White Sox the lead in the 10th, the Twins were facing a 6-5 deficit with 3 outs to go; they would need none of them.  Delmon Young, who'd earlier broken out of a slump with a homer, singled to lead off the Twins' half of the 10th.  Jim Thome followed that with an absolute laser to right field, giving Minnesota a 7-6 victory over the White Sox.

It's fitting that it was Thome who sealed the win, as he spent many seasons with Chicago before signing a one-year deal with the Twins this off-season.  It's fitting because Chicago so clearly has a need for someone exactly like Thome, and because the Twins have benefited so greatly from their signing of Thome.  While the Twins rank third among AL teams in OPS and wOBA from their DH spot (.838 and .360), the White Sox rank in the bottom third in both categories (.715 and .313).

[A quick aside.  The Mariners have received a .256 wOBA from their aggregate DH this season.  The guy who is put in the lineup to do nothing other than hit has a .182 average, a .260 OBP, and a .303 slugging percent.  Again, this guy's ONLY job is to hit.  By definition, he does nothing else.  The Mariners might want to propose a move to the National League.]

Thome, of course, has a significant number of the Twins' designated hitter appearances.  His performance, in fact, is far and above the aggregate DH total for the Twins.  His wOBA sits at a robust .416 and he's slugged 17 homers in his role as a part-time player.  And to think that I questioned his signing at the time!  To be fair, though, as one of Delmon Young's last supporters, I was more worried about him cutting into Delmon's playing time than anything else.

And that has not happened, largely because Young has rebounded and been a productive player this year.  I don't want to go crazy, however, as I am worried the Twins will.  He still doesn't walk at all and even if he's improved on defense, he's still below average--he's just not the worst outfield defender in the league anymore.  But what gets the money is home runs and runs batted in, which Young is doing prolifically.  I'm concerned that the Twins will see that and overpay for a player who, while no longer useless, does have significant flaws.  I would love to see Young continue playing for the Twins but not if he's going to be demonstrably overvalued.

Since I'm on the topic of Young anyways, I would be remiss not to mention his collision with A.J. Pierzynski at home plate yesterday.  Rather than trying to slide in for the run (which possibly could have been successful), Young made a beeline for Pierzynski and shoved him in the face.  It was ostensibly in the course of trying to score, so there won't be a punishment, but it was a pretty blatant maneuver.

One of the things I love about the Twins is that things like that almost never happen.  The Twins don't stoop to the level of immature children like most baseball teams do.  When a Twin gets hit, for instance, they take their lump and thank the opposing team for the automatic base-runner, rather than charging the mound or silently plotting their eventual vindication.  Seeing Glen Perkins hit Carlos Quentin twice after he homered, or seeing Young do what he did yesterday, is the rare exception to the rule.

On the other side are the White Sox announcers.  And the more I listen to them, the more I enjoy beating the White Sox solely to hear them suffer.  They are insufferable and unwatchable, and continue to be the only commentators I've heard who have absolutely no regard for impartiality.  When a ball is hit, you can practically guarantee that you'll hear "Stretch" or "Get down" or any number of prayers sent toward the ball that would help Chicago.  In this case, however, I'm talking about how vengeful they are.  I guess they are like most people in baseball in that respect, but it's a part of the game I could certainly do without.  In response to Young's play on Pierzynski, their immediate reaction was this: "All right.  All right, Delmon.  You got it, buddy.  We'll see what happens either later on this series or when y'all come back to us."  And a few moments later: "I wonder how this Rawlings would look stuck in the earhole of his helmet."

Really?  I don't understand this.  Can't we just admit it was a lapse in judgment and move on?  Do we really need to plot our revenge that we'll take in a few weeks?  Especially a revenge that is so dangerous?  Many people seem to believe that throwing at a player is so innocuous.  What about Justin Morneau?  Remember how much he suffered after he was hit in the head with a pitch back in 2004 (not that that was on purpose)?  I'm sure you're aware of the time he's missed this year from what appeared to be a harmless collision.  Head injuries are serious--players shouldn't have their safety risked just so people can get their petty revenge.

Kenny Williams Matches Bill Smith

Yesterday it was the Twins trading away a prospect for an underwhelming return, but today it was the White Sox who parted ways with a valuable commodity in what appears to be a pretty questionable deal.

Chicago sent starting pitcher Daniel Hudson to Arizona for Edwin Jackson.  The Diamondbacks also received a second prospect, David Holmberg, but I know nothing about him and Hudson is the clear deal-maker anyways.  For those reasons, I’m just going to forget about Holmberg.

To me, this deal looks remarkably similar to the one the Twins pulled off to get Matt Capps.  Like the Twins, the White Sox traded a consensus top-3 prospect in their organization (here’s the proof) and a player ranked highly by Baseball America (#66 in the Spring rankings).  Like the Twins, the White Sox gave up a second player (Holmberg) as a throw-in.  Like the Twins, the White Sox will have control of their new player for next year, too.  And, like the Twins’ trade, this deal makes no sense.

They traded Hudson, their #1 pitching prospect, for a decent pitcher in Edwin Jackson.  Unfortunately, Hudson appears to already be just as good a pitcher, with the potential to be a much better pitcher.  ZIPs projects Hudson to have a 4.06 FIP for the rest of 2010, compared to its projection of 4.16 for Jackson.  In addition, Jackson still has a few million dollars on the docket for this year, plus $8.35 million committed to him for next year.  Hudson, meanwhile, would make a few hundred thousand for the next couple of years, before he could even approach would Jackson is making.

I just don’t understand it at all.  It seems like the White Sox mortgaged the future, but made no improvement for the present.  They’ve replaced Hudson with Jackson in the rotation, but Hudson is probably close to, or as good as, Jackson is right now.  Is this just a total overreaction to Hudson’s 3 less-than-stellar big league starts thus far in 2010?  That’s the only explanation I can see.

In a response to a comment I left on FanGraphs, one White Sox fan offered this reasoning:

"Believe me, most of us White Sox fans don’t understand it either unless it’s because Washington wants Jackson instead of Hudson in a trade for Dunn. Either that, or “The Don” Cooper sees some sort of purportedly easily fixable flaw that will quickly turn him around. None of us discount his ability to change the fortunes of talented pitchers (Thornton, Danks, Floyd, etc) but he’s also got some failures (Mike MacDougal being an obvious one) where he never was able to do much of anything."

All in all, for the second consecutive day, an AL Central General Manager has managed to mystify me with a trade.  The fact that it was a rival of Minnesota significantly lessens the pain of giving away Wilson Ramos.

And I was all excited too

I went to play tennis at the end of the seventh inning of Wednesday's game, looking forward to coming back and writing about the Twins' fourth consecutive victory, their very impressive 7-2 homestand, and them pulling within 3 games of the Tigers. Brian Duensing had pitched seven excellent innings (where has all this come from??) and the Twins had overcome two aggregiously bad calls by the umpires.

First, was the obvious call on Cuddyer's catch against the wall, which was overturned and called a double. Replays clearly showed he made the catch, but Duensing pitched around it and made it a moot point. The second was the pitch that was called a strike against Jason Kubel with 2 outs and the bases loaded on a 3-1 count. I'm not one who normally complains about strikes and balls, as I usually feel as if it evens out and the mistakes are never that bad, but this was awful. It was a straight fastball that was at least six inches outside, had absolutely no business being called a strike, and was at a critical juncture of the game. I don't blame Kubel for bending over to take off his shin protector, but he shook it off and came up with a big 2-RBI single anyways.

I won't dwell on the last inning, as I didn't watch it and am glad I didn't. Overcoming a 2-run deficit in the eighth inning (as it was when I left) is disappointing enough, but to see that the Twins were ahead by 2 with one out to go--and twice within one strike of winning--was heartbreaking. And it didn't end there, as Matt Guerrier only made Joe Nathan's outing messier by allowing the go-ahead run and another on top of it.

It's just one game, but it's one really gut-wrenching game.

Morales Wins It

Jeff Manship made his first Major League start yesterday and had a very respectable performance. He allowed a solo home run to Alexei Ramirez, but that was the only run he would give up. He left after five innings having thrown only eighty pitches. I guess that was the plan before the game, but with Brian Duensing pitching this afternoon I would have preferred they try to get more out of Manship. But, hey, it worked.

After Ramirez's fifth-inning homer, Michael Cuddyer answered immediately with his own solo shot. After Orlando Cabrera broke the tie with a sacrifice fly later in the game, Cuddyer would extend the lead with his second home run, putting the Twins up 3-1. That put Jesse Crain in line for the win, after he pitched 2 perfect innings in relief.

It wouldn't last, though, as Jose Mijares walked the only batter he faced on four pitches and Matt Guerrier followed by surrendering a game-tying longball to Gordon Beckham. He finished the inning without further damage and, after a scoreless bottom half, was replaced by Jon Rauch in the ninth inning. Just a few days ago that easily could have been Bobby Keppel--I think I like this acquisition.

Rauch gave up a single but emerged unscathed, giving the Twins an opportunity to avoid extras. And they did just that, as Jason Kubel and Brendan Harris singled, putting runners on the corners with one out. Carlos Gomez struck out and then Gardenhire sent in Jose Morales to pinch-hit for Alexi Casilla. He hit a sharp "single" (it would have been at least a double in any other situation) to score the winning run, giving Rauch his second victory in as many appearances for the Twins and the White Sox their 11th loss in their last 12 games at the Metrodome.

And, speaking of Rauch, Kevin Mulvey was essentially sent to the Diamondbacks as the player to be named later. I'm not sure why it was done in this roundabout way, rather than making him explicitly the player-to-be-named, but he's gone regardless. With Rauch under contract for next year, I think I like this deal significantly more than the trade for Carl Pavano. Of course, Yohan Pino could flame out and Mulvey could end up being a reliable #4 starter, because you can't ever really tell with prospects.

One last thing: am I the only one who thought Jermaine Dye could have caught the ball standing up on Scott Podsednik's diving catch of Brendan Harris' fly ball in the second inning?

White Sox lose to Twins and call it a season

The Twins defeated the White Sox yesterday behind a strong performance from Nick Blackburn and homers from Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel. The White Sox' loss was their fourth in a row and eighth in their past nine games, dropping them 4 games under .500 and 6 games behind Detroit in the division. That was enough, apparently, for them to decide their playoff hopes were all but gone, as they shipped Jim Thome and Jose Contreras to two NL West contenders.

The Dodgers received Jim Thome, whose contract expires after this year, for minor league infielder Justin Fuller, while the Rockies acquired Jose Contreras for minor league pitcher Brandon Hynick. Fuller doesn't seem to be very intriguing, as he's repeating single-A at the age of 26 and hasn't showed much plate discipline or power, has a big strikeout rate, and is only 3-for-9 in stolen base attempts. I have no idea how his fielding rates, but it would have to be really good for him to have a decent future.

Hynick, meanwhile, is in AAA now, meaning he's much closer to the majors, and "should fit in nicely on a National League club's MLB roster as a No. 4 starter." Obviously he's now in the American League, but it still gives you an idea of his potential. If you want to read more about him, follow the link.

Back on Track

After that sky-is-falling road trip, the Twins have now won three straight, including the last two over the rival White Sox. That also means the Twins are just two games behind Detroit, who lost again to Texas, and are tied with the White Sox at 51-50.

It didn't start so well last night, as Mark Buehrle picked up right where he left off from his perfect game, retiring the first 17 Twins hitters of the game. With that he broke the all-time record for consecutive outs recorded, putting him at 45 (41 was the previous record). Buehrle, I noticed, works very quickly, and that was evidenced by the fact that the Twins were only batting for 22 minutes total for the first five innings. A game that moved that fast would be over in 1 hour and 19 minutes.

But then Alexi Casilla walked to take away the perfect game, Denard Span singled to break up the no-hitter, and Joe Mauer doubled--on a play Scott Podsednik probably should have made--to tie the game at one. They came back out for the seventh with more of the same: 3 singles, a hit batsmen, and a sac bunt chased Buehrle, and Octavio Dotel followed with 3 walks before he was able to finish the inning. By then it was 5-1 Twins and Jose Mijares was in line for his first Major League win.

That's not to say that everything was positive. Scott Baker again struggled with his pitch count, despite not having any control problems. Though he pitched very well, it took him 115 pitches to get through six innings, even with 82 of them (71.3) being for strikes. And Bobby Keppel struggled again, continuing a recent trend (last 4 games: 3.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 4 BB, 1 K) showing that he, and the long relievers in general, are not going to be sufficient plugs for the bullpen.

This division is emminently winnable and a deal for Freddy Sanchez, as discussed in the last post, or a reliever, as I'll discuss later today, will make it the Twins for the taking.

Just what the doctor ordered!

Finally. The Twins were riding a 6-game losing streak and hadn't won in their last 9 games away from the Metrodome before tonight's 20-1 slaughter of the White Sox. It's easy to get disillusioned when the Twins are playing like that, and even easier to lose interest in blogging (as Twin #2 did). Now they're heading back home on the heels of scoring the most runs since they ran up 20 on the White Sox in July of 2007 and achieving their second-largest margin of victory in franchise history. The 19-run loss also tied the White Sox's franchise record for their worst loss, and was the fourth time the White Sox have ever allowed 20 runs.

Joe Mauer continued his mind-boggling start, hitting 2 doubles and a grand slam to set a career high with 6 RBIs. Matt Tolbert mashed his first career home run among his three hits, and Michael Cuddyer added four hits, his sixth home run of the year, four runs, and three RBIs. Joe Crede teamed with Cuddyer to hit back-to-back jacks in the second inning. Jason Kubel had 3 hits and Justin Morneau got on base three times via the walk. Jose Morales reached base five out of six times (3 hits, 2 walks), but was still demoted to Rochester after the game to make room for Delmon Young.

Obviously, there were lots of good hitting performances in a 20-run outburst, but one player stuck out like a sore thumb: Nick Punto. Punto and Morneau (who walked 3 times) were the only starters without a hit, and Punto only reached base on an error made on his sacrifice bunt attempt. All in all, he was 0-5 in a game in which the Twins had 20 hits, and tallied 3 of the team's 5 strikeouts.

The Twins' pitching also stepped up in this game. Nick Blackburn threw 7 scoreless innings with just 82 pitches, surrendering only 7 baserunners, and Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan did not give up an earned run either. Matt Tolbert's error in the eighth kept the inning alive, eventually allowing the Sox's lone run to score on Mijares' watch.

A game like this is one where you can't seem to write enough about it, which is in stark contrast to the previous week of games. You can bet you'll see this game near the top of the rankings at the end of the year when I look back at the best games and moments of the season.

Double Play Delmon

Back-to-back bad losses to the White Sox is never something that gets you in a good mood. This one started well enough, with a homer by Delmon Young in the second inning, but it was only downhill from there. The Twins had only three hits and four baserunners through the first eight innings, which caused me to get sidetracked with a magazine I was reading before I noticed the bases were loaded with no outs in the ninth inning! I was subdued as quickly as I'd gotten excited, though, after Joe Crede struck out and Young grounded into a double play. Immediately before his at-bat, I thought to myself, "And now we've got Double Play Delmon up with the double play perfectly aligned." He obliged.

But, I went to the effort to see if the quick-triggered moniker was accurate. Turns out, Young led the American League in 2007 in GDP with 23, but was tied for 13th last year with 19. So... all in all, I'd say it's fair, but there's an argument against it.

That's the fourth time in their first seven games that the Twins have scored one or fewer runs. Shockingly, they've lost all of them, and won their other three games in which they've scored 6+ runs. It's no secret: if you don't put up multiple runs in a game, it makes it very difficult to win. This time it was Nick Blackburn taking the loss despite a quality start.

A few other non-Twins notes:

• Johan Santana pitched a gem but wound up on the losing end of the game thanks to two unearned runs. His line: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K. His adversary, Josh Johnson, did him one better though: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K.
• Cleveland finally picked up a victory in 2009, beating the Blue Jays 8-4. The Nationals are now the only winless team remaining.
• This is something a lot of us have been hoping to hear from Ron Gardenhire, but in this case it came from Jerry Manuel: "We're not necessarrily identifying saves--we're indentifying wins and losses." Click to read more quotes you wish Gardenhire would say regarding bringing in Joe Nathan in close, non-save situations.

Healthiness

Both Scott Baker and Joe Mauer are looking to return soon, which will certainly give a boost to the (currently) first-place Twins. Baker is scheduled to pitch this Wednesday, which likely means R.A. Dickey will head right back to AAA (although it's possible it will be Brian Duensing). Mauer, meanwhile, is no longer feeling any pain and will start running this coming week, which is what was giving him the most pain before. Lavelle is guessing that he'll be back shortly before the end of the month, and I think that's an accurate, and encouraging, estimation.

Also, A.J. Pierzynski is not playing today for the White Sox, but a former Twin is still manning the catching duties: Corky Miller. Sadly enough, the career .176/.264/.290 hitter already has a hit in the game. Last year he had five hits in sixty at bats, equalling a .083 average. But, compared to a 3-year span in which he went 1-55 with three different teams (including his 0-12 season with the Twins), that's earth-shattering.

It all comes down to this...

Pick any metaphor you want-- it's pretty simple: the Twins have six games left this year, they're 2.5 games out, and they're hosting the White Sox for three games starting tomorrow.

A sweep is essentially necessary. Two out of three wouldn't be the end, but they'd be in dire straits. One win and they're out, regardless of what the math would say. No wins and not even math would argue.

We've been looking forward to this series since the beginning of June. We've had this circled on the calendar for three and a half months, thinking we'd be watching the Twins toast champagne as the White Sox departed the Metrodome. The situation isn't quite what we expected, but the gravity is no less.

A pretty horrible stretch of baseball has put the Twins in this position. But they can right all that and make it a distant memory with six good games of baseball to close the season, and they'll have the chance to do it right at home in Minnesota.

So Far, So....

If you're a White Sox fan, you have to be ecstatic about the results of this weekend's games. Chicago ripped apart Twins pitching to the tune of 33 runs in three games and increased its lead in the division to 5 1/2 games.

As a Twins fan, I'm not quite as thrilled. After allowing ten runs on Friday, but coming up with six of their own, the Twins were blown out 11-2 and 12-2 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. Easily the most important series so far this year, the Twins have been completely outplayed for 27 innings now. Now, it doesn't mean the Twins should give up on their hopes of contending this year--it just became that much harder. The first step, of course, is to salvage the series with a win today to get back to .500.

As I type this, the Twins are leading the White Sox 3-2 in the top of the fifth, so hopefully they can hang on to that lead. Glen Perkins, who started, has already thrown 76 pitches through four innings, so it looks like it will be another long night for the bullpen. I still don't agree with having 13 pitchers on the roster, but if they were ever going to do it, this looks to have been the stretch of games to do so.

A quick thank you to Joe Mauer

Thank you for not allowing the Twins to be no-hit by Gavin Floyd. And thank you for keeping them from being shut-out. And thank you, simply, for getting on base three of four times when the rest of the lineup managed a sole walk and no hits.

Twins Win Home Finale

The home finale could not have gone much better, as the Twins easily defeated the White Sox 7-1. To start, I'm glad that I get to eat my words about Gardy not playing Brian Buscher and Alexi Casilla, as he started both of them while leaving Luis Rodriguez and Nick Punto on the bench. It doesn't make up for all his poor managing this season, but at least maybe this is a step in the right direction. In the game Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett, and Michael Cuddyer all had 2 hits, and Cuddy added 4 RBI in the game. On a special note, Garrett Jones hit his first career home run, a solo shot in the 2nd inning, in order to get the scoring started for the Twins and tie the game at 1. His average still sits at only .175, but, hey, at least now he joins the minority of players who have actually hit a home run in their major league career.

The real star of the game, though, was the starting pitcher Kevin Slowey, as he had the best start of his young career. Slowey set a career high in innings pitched (7) and strikeouts (9), while tying his career low for hits allowed in a start (4) and earned runs allowed (1). Slowey was all over the strike zone today, throwing 75 strikes while not even reaching 100 pitches. He has had a real resurgence during his September call-up, as he has now pitched 24 innings this month, while giving up only 22 hits, 2 walks, and 7 earned runs, while striking out 25, which is over 1 K per inning. His numbers in his starts have been even better, as he has allowed only 4 runs (3 earned), 13 hits, and no walks over 3 September starts (18 innings). Maybe the most telling statistic for Slowey this month, though, is that he has only allowed 3 home runs in 24 innings, including none in his last 2 starts (13 innings). He allowed at least one home run in each of his first 8 starts, giving up 14 round trippers over that span.

And, one last note: I didn't get to watch the game today, so could someone let me know if Justin Morneau actually swung at this pitch today:

Ugh!

It was a rough game for the Twins today, resulting in an 8-3 loss to the White Sox. This is the first time I've started the entry before the game was over, but I just didn't feel like thinking about this game much after it ended. I almost put it off until the conclusion of the game immediately following Jason Kubel's opposite field home run, but then Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer each struck out swinging to suck out any momentum I thought the Twins might have gained. As a whole, the offense couldn't get anything going, striking out eleven times against Javier Vazquez, and fourteen times in the game. Jason Tyner was the only Twin not to strike out, while Kubel and Nick Punto struck out three times apiece. Punto's 0-4 game ended his seven game hitting streak and his streak of three consecutive games with multiple hits. On a bright note, Brian Buscher had his first career double.


Scott Baker was not good to start the game, giving up three earned runs in two innings, but Boof Bonser was even worse, allowing eight hits, two walks, and five earned runs in just three frames. Baker, however, did not leave just because of his sub-par performance; he was hit by a line drive on his pitching hand, which, although evidently not serious, may cause him to miss his last start of the season. This brings up the question of who will pitch in his place. Bonser certainly didn't make a very good case for it to be himself, but he would presumably be the first option. To finish the game, Julio DePaula, Glen Perkins, and Juan Rincon combined for four scoreless innings.


As Jim Thome hit his 32nd home run in the third inning, it dawned on me that he has really been killing the Twins of late. In fact, he has homered in six straight games against the Twins, batting .541 (13-24) with 8 runs and 14 runs batted in during that span. Let's hope that he can be contained tomorrow, because I am hanging on to the slim, slim chance of the silver lining that is a .500 record.

Santana Struggles, Punto Picks It Up

The Twins had another disappointing loss as they continued their trek towards their first sub-.500 record since 2000. Johan Santana struggled once again and this season looks destined to be the worst of his full-time starting career, with an ERA of 3.29 and a whopping 33 home runs allowed. Santana has always been a bit prone to the home run ball, but this year has been absolutely ridiculous. I'm not sure what the cause of this rise has been, as his groundout-to-airout ratio is well above his career ratio, and only in the 2006 season has he ever had a better ratio (as a starter). Like many Twins fans, I wish there was an easy solution to Johan's second-half struggles that would put him right back on track, but obviously it is never that easy. On the bright side, he did strike out 11 in the game and once again, despite the down year, is leading the league in strikeouts as a result of Erik Bedard's season-ending injury, albeit by only 2 over the Rays' Scott Kazmir.

In other news, Joe Mauer had his first 3-hit game since August 13th, and Nick Punto had another multi-hit game. Punto seems to be turning it around in September, as his line is now .360/.396/.460, which is infinitely better than his .127/.210/.155 line in August. I don't know if it is possible to ever make up for a month like his August (and the rest of his putrid season), but at least Punto is showing some improvement. As written over at Nick & Nick's Twins Blog, Punto, though maybe not the .290 hitter he was last year, is not a sub-.200 hitter either, and this September he has already risen his average 16 points to reach .214. And that's what scares me the most: I actually just wrote a positive note about how a player now has a .214 batting average.

One last note: how did Matt LeCroy and Lew Ford manage to get into the starting lineup over Jason Kubel? Oh, I forgot, Ford (.256/.347/.419 this season) and LeCroy (.183/.274/.220 in AAA this year) are much better hitters against lefties than Kubel (.242/.342/.355). Seriously, Kubel is a 25 year old hitter who has been on fire lately and seems to be finally hitting his stride after a major knee injury, while LeCroy and Ford are both 31 and on the decline. Gardy, sometimes you just have to use this thing called your brain in setting the lineups, rather than looking at which arm the pitcher throws with. And just as an aside, Buehrle's splits for the year:

vs. Lefties: .314/.358/.503
vs. Righties: .258/.300/.395