Composite Prospect Rankings, #30-#21

I'll continue examining Minnesota's prospects, today delving into those ranked from 21 to 30.

Click to enlarge

30. Anthony Slama, RHP
--roger13 (23): "One of minor league baseball's top relievers throughout his career."
--Seth Stohs (33.5): "Reliever with [a] tremendous K-rate...should be in the Twins bullpen throughout 2011."
Slama struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings and allowed opponents to hit .200 or under again at Triple-A. He's done that at every level in every year of his minor league career.  Ho hum.  He got just 2.1 innings with the Twins this year at the beginning of June, as he was relegated to overpowering minor league hitters again.  He even dropped his walk rate a little there, but no matter.  Now he's dealing with an elbow injury, but at least it looks like he will avoid Tommy John surgery.  Through no fault of his own he will fall on prospect lists as he is another year older.
--Result: Downgrade

29. Daniel Ortiz, OF
--Seth Stohs (19): "My choice for breakout hitter of the 2011 Twins minor league season."
--cmathewson, fan (36): "Skeptical about E-Town numbers, particularly power numbers."
A diminutive outfielder, Ortiz is getting his first shot at full-season competition this year.  His power numbers have not been quite as good, but he's still accumulated 30 doubles and 10 homers, resulting in a .167 ISO.  He's also showed improved plate discipline, upping his walk rate and cutting down on his strikeouts.  It adds up to a performance that has been slightly above average in the Midwest League.
--Result: No change

28. Kane Holbrooks, RHP
--John Sickels (19): "Overlooked... Looks like a sleeper to me."
--Aaron Gleeman (27): "To stick as a starter Holbrooks needs to develop his off speed offerings."
Holbrooks made 7 starts at Ft. Myers last year to end the season, and even started one game with New Britain, but he returned to Ft. Myers this season as a 24-year old.  His numbers have not been as good either,  as he has a pathetic strikeout rate of 4.48 batters per 9 innings, a full 3 K/9 lower than last year at the same level.  He was recently placed on the restricted list for reasons I don't know and hasn't pitched since July 17.
--Result: Downgrade

27. Bruce Pugh, RHP
--John Sickels (21): "Live arm, strikes people out, could surprise if his command sharpens up."
--DJL44, fan (34): "Has a live arm but a 4 ERA in Ft. Myers isn't impressive."
After starting at High-A last season and throwing over 100 innings there, Pugh began the season as a reliever at the same level.  With 27 strikeouts and 6 walks in 24.1 innings, Pugh continued striking out lots of hitters while also harnessing his control.  Upon being promoted to Double-A, though, he struggled mightily, imploding with 8 runs allowed in his first outing (1.1 IP).  In total, he surrendered 16 hits, 16 runs, and 15 walks in 16 innings.  He was then demoted back to Ft. Myers, where he's again been very good, striking out 28 against 7 walks in 19.1 IP.
--Result: Downgrade

26. Tom Stuifbergen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (20): "Raw stuff isn't overpowering, but Stuifbergen throws strikes, misses a fair number of bats, and induces grounders in bunches."
--Seth Stohs (30): "Will move up this list if he is healthy in 2010."
Stuifbergen has stayed healthy this season except for a very brief trip to the disabled list at the end of April, pitching 111 innings for Ft. Myers to this point.  He's given up a ton of hits in that time and has seen a precipitous drop in his strikeout rate, but at least has maintained his pinpoint control, walking only 1.46 hitters per 9 innings.  His ERA is a misleading 4.54, as his BABIP and LOB% indicate he is suffering from bad luck. Still, he's probably going to have to rediscover his strikeout rate to remain relevant.
--Result: Slight downgrade

24 (tie). Trevor Plouffe, SS
--Jon Kammerer, fan (21): "At least a utility guy with the potential to be an average regular if he can make more contact or increase his power."
--Aaron Gleeman (32): "It's pretty safe to conclude that Plouffe simply can't hit... A career as a utility man looks like his most realistic upside."
Plouffe got a cup of coffee with Minnesota in 2010, but found himself at Triple-A again in 2011.  All of a sudden, though, he started to hit.  In just 220 plate appearances, he had 15 home runs and 29 total extra base hits, good for a .323 ISO, which was nearly twice as high as in any previous season.  In addition, he began walking a little more and hit for a high average, something he had never done before.  Of course he is now 25 years old and has spent four seasons at AAA, casting some negative spin on his performance.  His audition in the big leagues has predictably been less impressive, and his defense will prove key to making him a useful player.
--Result: Graduated (Upgrade)

24 (tie). Deolis Guerra, RHP
--Seth Stohs (24): "Has a tremendous changeup and he's got great makeup.  2011 is a big year for him as it is his final option season."
--Aaron Gleeman (34): "Struggled to maintain peak velocity and and ceased being a ground-baller.  He's still young, but that's about all he has left in his favor."
At New Britain for the third consecutive season, Guerra once again failed to live up to his promise as a starting pitcher.  For the first two months of the season, Guerra floundered in the rotation, allowing 49 runs (43 earned) in 43 innings with a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  At that point the Twins shifted him to the bullpen, where's he's been very effective.  He's thrown 43 innings in that role, punching out 55 batters and 5 for every walk, and allowed only 16 runs (14 earned).  Somehow still just 22 years old, it's good to see Guerra finally pitching well in any capacity.
--Result: Upgrade

23. Niko Goodrum, IF/OF
--Kevin Goldstein (16): "A fantastic up-the-middle athlete... he was lost with the bat after signing."
--roger13 (30): "Tremendous athlete who struggled in his adjustment to professional baseball."
Despite hitting .161 with a .414 OPS in 36 games with the GCL Twins in 2010, Goodrum moved up to rookie-level Elizabethton this year.  He hasn't been as bad as last year (how could he be?), but his batting average is still just .239.  His strikeout rate is also high, at 24 %, and his ISO is an unimpressive .094.  If you're looking for positives I suppose they're that that offensive performance is only 13% below average in the Appalachian League and that he's 6-for-7 stealing bases.
--Result: Slight downgrade

22. Rene Tosoni, OF
--Aaron Gleeman (14): "Has consistently been above average at each stop without really flashing any standout skills... could be in line to replace Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer in 2012."
--Seth Stohs (32): "Solid all-around player.  If healthy, he will move up quickly."
In his first taste of Triple-A Tosoni has disappointed.  Just as he was consistently solid across the board at the other levels, he has been consistently below average in every category with Rochester.  He's walking less, showing less power, and hitting for a lower average.  Despite that, he's gotten a couple calls to the big leagues where he's almost exactly duplicated his AAA performance.  He still has a chance to make a case for a spot on the big league roster next season with a month and a half left in this season.
--Downgrade

21. B.J. Hermsen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (22): "He makes up for [a] lack of missed bats with pinpoint control and a fair number of ground balls."
--cmathewson, fan (27): "A marginal prospect in my book.  He never throws harder than 88 with little movement."
Hermsen spent most of the 2011 season at Beloit, essentially replicating his numbers from 2010.  In 124.2 innings, his FIP was exactly the same (3.76) while his K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 were very similar.  He was recently promoted to High-A Ft. Myers where he's made two starts.  The early returns were good, but it's much too soon to make any sort of judgment on his performance there.
--Slight upgrade


Check back tomorrow for the next installment!

*Slama is ranked 33.5 because Seth originally left him out altogether by accident.  Rather than move every player down one, he put Slama at 33.5

Carnage in Minnesota

A day after Nick Punto hit the disabled list, two Twins pitchers will join him there.  Kevin Slowey and Ron Mahay both suffered injuries during Saturday's game against the Angels.  Things looked bright after the first inning, as the Twins mounted a 3-0 lead.  But, as has become commonplace over the last week, Minnesota's starting pitcher kindly handed back all those runs as soon as he could.  This time Slowey was the culprit, allowing 4 runs in the second inning.  The Twins didn't score any runs the rest of the game and went quietly, 9-3.  Fortunately the White Sox lost the first game of their doubleheader, meaning the Twins retain their 4.5 game lead, and hopefully they haven't done all their losing for today as they currently trail 4-3 in the nightcap.

But the story, of course, was Slowey's early exit due to an elbow problem and Mahay's shoulder injury.  That means two familiar faces will be rejoining the Twins: Nick Blackburn and Anthony Slama.  If only they could get Anthony Swarzak up here, they'd have a full docket of guys who were at one point good prospects for the Twins but now profile as little more than replaceable long relievers (Blackburn, Glen Perkins, and Jeff Manship).  Since his demotion, Blackburn has impressed some with his 2.49 ERA in four starts at AAA.  I'm not very optimistic, however; he didn't really show much with his strikeout rate (13 in 21.2 innings) or his walk rate (2.49 BB/9).  Regardless, it was a very small sample against inferior hitters, so I'd be hard-pressed to get excited about his performance.  He'll immediately take Slowey's spot in the rotation, so let's hope he's at least better than he was in his first stint with the big league club this year.

Meanwhile, Slama's had a grand total of just 6.2 innings pitched at AAA since he was sent down, so I'm not even going to mention his stats.  I have a lot of confidence that Slama can at least be a decent major league reliever, but he'll have to show it quickly because the Twins don't--and he sure didn't do that last time around.

The two pitchers the Twins just brought up have both been below replacement level so far, costing them half a win on the season.  That is to say, had they had any random scrubs from AAA on the roster in place of them, the idea is that the Twins would have half a win more so far in 2010.  That may paint a bleak picture, but I don't believe either of them is truly that bad.  While Blackburn is no star, and while he may not even be able to replicate his performances from 2008 and 2009, I do think he can strike out more than 3.03 batter per nine innings, which will greatly help his run prevention abilities.  Slama I truly think can contribute, so I don't think that will really be a downgrade at all.

At Long Last

Anthony Slama will finally join the Minnesota Twins.  Alex Burnett has been sent down, as his recent troubles became overwhelming.  He's allowed multiple hits in each of his last six appearances, and only one of those appearances lasted more than one inning.  He also gave up 8 runs over that span, which covers just 6 1/3 innings.  Not that you want to make a decision based on two games, but he struggled to throw strikes both times, getting just 20 of his 41 pitches over the plate.

But back to the real story--Slama.  Twins bloggers have been critical of the Twins' handling of him and complaining about their unwillingness to give him a chance for years now.  As early as July 2, 2008, Aaron Gleeman wrote: "Keeping Slama at Ft. Myers is absurd.  Not only are his numbers there absolutely incredible and not only did he dominate between rookie-ball and low Single-A in his pro debut last season, but Slama is already 24 years old.  He was a 39th-round pick after a so-so career at the University of San Diego, so the Twins are understandably skeptical that they have something special in Slama, but there's clearly no need for a 24-year old to be eviscerating Single-A hitters."

That's pretty much been the story ever since, as the Twins show no confidence and Slama while he relentlessly mows down hitters at every level.  Just look at the numbers:

Rookie: 7.1 IP, 12.27 K/9, 1.23 BB/9, .091 BAA, 0.88 FIP
Low-A: 24.1 IP, 14.42 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, .172 BAA , 1.23 FIP
High-A: 71.0 IP, 13.94 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, .173 BAA, 1.24 FIP
Double-A: 65.1 IP, 12.81 K/9, 4.41 BB/9, .201 BAA, 2.91 FIP
Triple-A: 68.1 IP, 10.93 K/9, 4.21 BB/9**

Yes, the strikeout rate has dropped at every level, save his brief stint at Rookie ball, but it remains outstanding at 10.93 per 9 innings.  And the walk rate is worrisome, as it has generally climbed upward to a pretty high mark, but the success he has experienced can't be ignored.  The best batters have ever hit against him is .212 in his first stint at AAA in 2009!  Over his time in the minors, Slama has accumulated 335 strikeouts against 98 walks in 236.1 IP.  That's a strikeout rate of 12.76 and walk rate of 3.73.  His WHIP is 1.04 and his ERA is an outstanding 1.83.

This is a guy who absolutely deserves an opportunity, so it's great to see him finally get it despite the Twins' reluctance to give it to him.

**FanGraphs for some reason does not have data for 2010, so I don't have his BAA or FIP for AAA.

Rock Cats Videos

Yesterday I made my first trip to see a New Britain Rock Cats (the Twins' AA affiliate) game. Twin #2 scores games there officially (for an independent company), so he's at almost every home game, but it was my first chance to see the likes of Danny Valencia, Brian Dinkelman, Rene Tosoni, Rob Delaney, Anthony Slama, and the rest of the Rock Cats play in person. I was fortunate in that I got to see both Delaney and Slama pitch, and the Rock Cats eke out a 6-5 victory. Tosoni hit a three-run homer and Valencia also hit a home run. Jay Rainville and Frank Mata combined to give up five runs through six innings, but Delaney pitched 2 scoreless innings and Slama closed it out for the save.

I also attempted to take videos of the game, but the quality was very poor as I was using a cell phone camera. All in all I thought I did a pretty good job filming, but there's only so much I could do with such a low quality camera.

Valencia had already homered and singled, but unfortunately I got his groundout to third in the 7th inning against the Binghamton Mets' Stephen Clyne.
Pitch-by-pitch: Ball, Ball, Foul, Ground out


Delaney then pitched the bottom of seventh and struck out the side. I'm actually not sure what I filmed, because I didn't get nearly every pitch, but the play-by-play of the inning is as follows: Lucas Duda strikes out, Shawn Bowman strikes out, D.J. Wabick doubles, Josh Peterson strikes out. Oh, and the ball I completely lose and frantically search for was a foul ball that was well out of play.


After Delaney pitched another scoreless inning, Slama came in for the save. He gave up a line drive single, but then got a strikeout and double play to end the game. I missed the final pitch of his strikeout (a called strike) because I thought the batter had already struck out, but that was the only pitch of the inning that I didn't get. This video is two parts.
Pitch-by-pitch: Called strike, Single; Ball, Swinging strike, Ball, Swinging Strike, Called strike (not in video)


Pitch-by-pitch: Called strike, Ball, Swinging strike, GIDP



Sorry about the quality, but I hope the descriptions helped you at least follow what was going on. If I had a better camera of any sort, I would have used that!

Oh, and click here if you want to see the videos on Youtube.

Help on the Way?

With the Twins' bullpen struggling, having allowed 26 runs in 34 innings thus far (6.88 ERA), here's a look at who could be called up to help in the near future.

LHP Jose Mijares- After his sparkling performance down the stretch last season, Mijares was assumed to be an important part of the 2009 bullpen. However, he showed up to camp overweight and pitched his way to AAA during the spring. Thus far in Rochester, though, Mijares has returned to last season's dominating form, giving up just one hit and striking out 4 in 5.1 innings. If he keeps pitching this well, it shouldn't be long before he rejoins the Twins and either R.A. Dickey or Phil Humber heads to Rochester.

RHP Anthony Swarzak- Swarzak had a very disappointing first half of 2008 at New Britain, but then turned in a much better 2nd half after an undeserved promotion to Rochester. However, despite the pretty ERA and win-loss record, his K:BB ratio was not particularly impressive. The start to the 2009 season, though, has been different, as he has struck out 9 and walked only 1 in his 2 starts thus far. He's only pitched in relief three times in his 5 year minor league career, but he could be called upon to help the big league club later this season.

RHP Anthony Slama- The last two pitchers on my list may not be as high on the Twins' list of potential bullpen options, but I think both of them could make the jump and really help the Twins, much like Mijares did last season. Slama has absolutely dominated throughout his minor league career, although he has been old for each level. In his career, he has 166 Ks and only 35 BBs in 106.2 innings. This season, the Twins have finally allowed the 25 year old to reach AA, which is usually considered the biggest jump in the minor league level. Thus far, he has continued his dominance, striking out 7, walking 1, and giving up 1 hit in 4 innings. If the Twins ever let Slama move up according to his performance, he'll be in AAA or the majors quite soon.

RHP Rob Delaney- Delaney is in a similar situation to Slama, having been old for each level he's pitched at, but also dominating wherever he's been, as shown by his career 7:1 K:BB ratio. In 2009 for New Britain, Delaney has 11 Ks and no walks in 7 innings. He already spent a half season at New Britain last year, so he should be headed to Rochester whenever a spot opens up there in the bullpen.