Who is Luke Hughes?

Hughes celebrates with Justin Morneau after hitting a home run off Justin Verlander

Signed out of Australia in July of 2002, Hughes came to the United States as an 18-year old the following year to start his career.  He spent his first two seasons in the Minnesota organization in short-season ball, with the GCL Twins and Elizabethton, respectively, and put up pretty good numbers.  In 2005 he moved up to full-season ball for the first time and the result was relatively disappointing.  His strikeout-to-walk ratio was worrisome, his OBP was unremarkable, and his decent power wasn't enough to make up for those weaknesses.  A 23-game cameo with Ft. Myers only heightened those red flags, as he tallied a pathetic .484 OPS there.

At this point, Hughes looked like the majority of minor leaguers--that is, a player destined to never play in the Majors.  And his full-season performance at Ft. Myers in 2006 did nothing to change that, as he once again demonstrated limited plate discipline and subsequently a limited ability to get on base.  His power numbers also suffered compared to what they were at the lower levels, and his OPS on the season was under .600.

Nonetheless, the Twins pushed him to Double-A the following season.  As it turned out, Hughes responded by playing the best baseball of his career, showing resurgent power and improving his walk rate.  It wasn't until after the 2008 season, though, when he finally got noticed as a prospect.  That's because he took another leap forward that year, posting an excellent .252 ISO and .415 wOBA in repeating Double-A, and playing in that year's Futures Game, before moving up to Triple-A for the end of the year.  A huge strikeout rate and a drop in his plate discipline at that level were concerning in his short stint there, but he also continued to show a good amount of pop.

For those reasons, he entered the 2009 season as a player who could potentially be in Minnesota at some point that season.  However, he started back at Double-A and regressed in most offensive categories.  At the same time, he was forced to move further down the defensive spectrum to third base, after starting his minor league career at shortstop and then playing second base for the majority of the previous seasons.  Upon moving up to Triple-A later in the season, however, he improved both on those numbers and on his performance at Triple-A in 2008.

He entered 2010 as a viable option for the big league club, but did not make the team out of Spring Training and began the season with Rochester.  Within a month, though, he was in Minnesota as a replacement for Nick Punto, who had to be put on the disabled list.  On April 28, he made his Major League debut and homered in his first plate appearance, the fifth Twin ever to do so.  He played the next day too, but was sent down days later on May 1, having made just 7 trips to the plate for Minnesota.  A sports hernia and groin injury he suffered at the beginning of June made it impossible for him to return to Minnesota that year.

Hughes again began 2011 in Rochester, but this time he was called up within a week, as Tsuyoshi Nishioka's broke his leg and needed to be replaced on the roster.  Hughes has spent the rest of the season bouncing between Triple-A and the Majors, at times displaying solid pop, but at other times looking lost at the plate and always looking like a marginal fielder.  Hughes has the potential to be pinch hitter and a backup infielder, but his defensive limitations prevent him from playing a premium position, and his offense isn't good enough for him to be considered a long-term starter at a less important position.

Futility Infielders

Over at SB Nation, Grant Brisbee wrote a humorous piece analyzing the Major League teams based on "how closely their utility infielder matches the Platonic ideal of a utility infielder."  He described a utility infielder as the following:

He's short, scrappy, and probably a switch-hitter, although he can't actually hit. He can field just enough to get by, but not enough to force his way into a starting role. He's not exactly slow, but his SB/CS ratio is often bad and lopsided.

I'd have to disagree slightly with some of that description, but the 'short, scrappy, and probably a switch-hitter, although he can't actually hit' is right on the money.  The Cardinals, thanks to old friend Nick Punto, ranked first on Brisbee's list, while Minnesota came in fourth.  In ranking Minnesota, Brisbee wrote this:

[R]ight now the factory of utility infielder is based in Minneapolis. The factories usually shift every few years because of tax codes and cheap labor and things like that, but right now the Twins are spitting them out. The Twins don't even have scouts for the last half of the draft, they just have experts in utility infielder names. "Go with Tony Mason in the 42nd ... ooh, Andy Rando in the 43rd ... Skip Stansilus in the 44th ..."

It would be funnier if it weren't so true.  Ron Gardenhire, a prototypical utility infielder himself in his playing days, loved no one more than Nick Punto, and has continued that infatuation with Matt Tolbert and others.  Those players who actually have hitting skill and/or potential, such as Danny Valencia, quickly find their way into his doghouse upon making mistakes, while lesser utility players have praise heaped on them.

Brisbee does get it wrong, though, when he also lists Luke Hughes and Trevor Plouffe along with Matt Tolbert as utility infielders.  Tolbert fields well enough, is a switch-hitter, and can't hit a lick, while, despite average speed, also being a sub-par base-stealer.  Meanwhile, both Hughes' and Plouffe's best attribute is their power.  No utility infielder should be able to make that claim.  In addition, both have experienced many doubters in terms of their defensive ability, Hughes especially.

Plouffe has played all over the diamond since his call-up, from outfield to first base to shortstop, but his skill set is simply not that of a utility player, and he's got a good chance to start in a middle infield spot for Minnesota  Meanwhile, Hughes' defense isn't nearly good enough at any position for him to be considered for a spot as a utility infielder.  He much better fits the profile of a bench bat, although he'd obviously have to hit better than he has this year to successfully fill that position.

To sum it up: Matt Tolbert is the very definition of a utility infielder.  Luke Hughes and Trevor Plouffe are not.

Composite Prospect Rankings, #40-#31

As I described yesterday, I'll be taking a look at the Twins' prospects' performance this year, and how it's affected their status from the beginning of the year.  Today I'll explore prospects 40 through 31.

The number in parentheses is where that person ranked the player.  Click the number for the link to the quote provided.  Keep in mind that all quotes were written at some point during the off-season.

Click to enlarge

40. Steve Singleton, 2B
--Seth Stohs (27): "Good D at 2B... If needed today, he could perform well enough to not hurt the team at all."
--DJL44, fan (37): ".750 OPS at AA is nothing special.  If he was above .800 in AAA I could see him as a prospect."
Assigned to AA for a third season, Singleton did hit a little better, nearing the .800 mark in OPS.  Upon a promotion to Rochester, however, he struggled, getting on base under 30 percent of the time and hitting doubles at a much lower rate than in AA, signifying a loss of power too.  Because of those numbers, and some off-the-field issues, Singleton was released a month ago on July 17th.  He signed a minor league contract with Philadelphia.
--Result: Released

39. Danny Rams, C/1B
--roger13 (33): "Power-hitting catcher...took a big step forward last year when nearly half of his hits went for extra bases."
--Aaron Gleeman (37): "He really hasn't developed one bit.  He still swings at everything, still strikes out a ton, and still has people questioning whether he can remain a catcher long term."
After playing the last season-and-a-half with Beloit, Rams moved up to High-A Ft. Myers to start the 2011 season.  Once more, he's shown little ability to adjust his approach, as he has made only very modest improvement to his plate discipline.  His strikeout rate of 29 percent is down slightly from last year, while his walk rate is up slightly to over 8 percent.  These small gains are easily outweighed by the fact that his power has dropped off significantly, with his slugging down to .366 and his ISO down 75 points to .131.
--Result: Downgrade

38. Bobby Lanigan, RHP
--Seth Stohs (20): "Has a good fastball and all reports indicate he has a terrific slider.  To me, he could be a very successful reliever."
--cmathewson, fan (41): "The jury is out as to whether he can become a good reliever in the majors."
Lanigan returned to AA after making 8 starts there in 2010.  He's continued to start, throwing almost 130 innings over 23 games.  His walk rate is very solid, but it's actually the highest it's ever been, and other than that he hasn't shown anything to get excited about.  His piddly strikeout rate of 5.6/9 and the 160 hits allowed in 129.1 innings have led to a less-than-stellar 4.73 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.  Perhaps he has a chance as a reliever, but he doesn't appear to have a future as a big league starter.
--Result: Downgrade

37. Martire Garcia, LHP
--Seth Stohs (29): "Throws hard, good movement.  Young."
--Aaron Gleeman (31): "He's one of the leading candidates to make a big jump up this list in 2012...for now Garcia's rank is on the conservative side and based more on his potential than actual performance."
The owner of some big strikeout rates in previous years, Garcia's rate went down a little at Beloit this season, but was still over one per inning.  The big problem was his control, which he'd had issues with before.  It fell apart completely this season, as he walked 5 men in his first outing, his only start, and finished with 25 walks in 21 innings spread over 14 games.  He pitched in his last game on May 21st, after which he was released.
--Result: Released

36. Kyle Waldrop, RHP
--roger13 (15): "A candidate to be part of the Twins bullpen at some time next year [2011]."
--Seth Stohs (50): "Throws strikes and gets ground balls."
Waldrop has spent the 2011 season at AAA, pitching fairly similarly to the way he did at the same level in 2010.  His strikeout rate has dipped from a little over 6 K/9 to just over 5 K/9, but his walk rate remains very good, hovering around 2 BB/ 9.  The fact that his 70 innings of relief this season haven't been any better than last season isn't a good sign, but Waldrop didn't appear as if he would be a difference maker in the bullpen anyways.  He could still get a call-up in September, but it's looking less likely that he'll be a part of the Twins future.
--Result: Slight downgrade

35. James Beresford, SS
--Aaron Gleeman (24): "Slowly but surely adding some power at the plate to go along with what has always been an outstanding glove."
--b1, fan (39): "ZERO power.  Unless he put[s] on some size, he'll be a back-up."
The 22-year old moved up to Ft. Myers to open the season and has struggled there.  The power he was adding disappeared, as his ISO dropped from an ugly .065 in 2010 to a totally negligible .031.  He's continued to exhibit good bat control, striking out infrequently, but a .328 OBP and .303 SLG at High-A aren't encouraging.  He's also been quite inefficient on the basepaths, swiping 41 bases on 78 attempts in his minor league career, and 4 of 10 this year.
--Result: Downgrade

34. Nate Roberts, OF
--John Sickels (17): "Another '10 draft sleeper.  Solid tools and consistent production."
--Aaron Gleeman (30): "Dominating in a lower-level college conference and then beating up on rookie-ball pitchers hardly guarantees future success."
Roberts has followed up his excellent season at Rookie-ball with a good season at Beloit.  His power has fallen, but his ISO is a still-respectable .123.  His biggest asset is his on-base percent, which for the second straight season is at least .440, despite a decent-but-not-great walk rate of 9.6 %.  What's buoyed his OBP are the 27 occasions on which he's been hit by a pitch in just 260 plate appearances.  He showed a similar ability (yes, ability) in college, so if he can maintain it, he will be significantly more valuable.
--Result: Slight upgrade

33. Luke Hughes, IF
--roger13 (25): "Has one of the more exciting right-handed bats in the organization."
--Seth Stohs (35): "OK at Rochester, but again was injured... Potential big league super utility bat and pinch hitter."
Not only has Hughes has managed to stay healthy this year, he's spent a majority of it with the big league club.  His performance, however, hasn't been all that good.  His .274 wOBA certainly didn't play at first base, the position he played the most, and was only tolerable at second base because of the Twins' lack of other options.  Back in AAA now, his power has returned and he's cut down on his strikeouts, but he's been held back by an unlucky BABIP (.250).  Although he no longer qualifies as a prospect and didn't look good in the majors, Hughes remains one of the few players in the high minors of the Twins system with any semblance of power potential.
--Result: Graduated (Slight downgrade)

32. Dakota Watts, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (29): "Projects as a potential late-inning reliever if things break right... One of the rare pitching prospects not to fit the Twins' preferred mold."
--Seth Stohs (41): "Some control issues, but the guy throws consistently in the upper 90s."
To this point in the 2011 season, things have not broken right.  Watts returned to High-A Ft. Myers to begin the year, and pitched significantly worse.  His strikeout rate (6.44) was well below his previous low for any stretch of time and his walk rate remained about the same as in 2010.  Still, after 29.1 mediocre innings, Watts was promoted to New Britain at the end of June.  His strikeouts have rebounded somewhat, but remain lower than in any other season, and his walks have jumped back up to over 5 per 9 innings.  As a result, he's allowed 28 runs (24 earned) in 24 innings at AA.
--Result: Downgrade

31. Scott Diamond, LHP
--cmathewson, fan (26): "He could be another [Craig] Breslow... Doesn't throw hard but gets a lot of strikeouts."
--Aaron Gleeman (36): "His strikeout and walk rates have been mediocre... He could begin 2011 in a long relief role [with the Twins]."
Diamond's unsightly 4-13 record and 5.42 ERA in Triple-A this season are very misleading.  While he hasn't been a star, his peripherals suggest that he has pitched solidly and merely been the victim of some bad luck.  He's striking out more batters than last year with the Braves' AAA affiliate, and his strikeout-to-walk rate is up also, though they could still be described as mediocre.  His FIP of 3.74 more accurately reflects Diamond's performance in 2011, which isn't far off from his career minor league numbers.
--Result: No change

That's all for today!  Keep coming back to read the rest.

A Look at the Rooks

Due to numerous injuries, the Twins have already turned to a number of rookies thus far in 2010. How they've performed has had a big effect on the fortunes of the Twins through the first three months of the season. Here's how each of them has contributed.

Drew Butera- Butera made the Major League roster out of Spring Training because of Jose Morales' injury, and has been pretty much as advertised. He hasn't hit a lick, even considering his clutch pinch-hit homer on Saturday, but he has been solid on defense, throwing out half of ten attempted base stealers. His batting average is below the Mendoza Line, his wOBA is an atrocious .220, and he's walked just once in 43 plate appearances. All of that results in a below replacement level performance, but I have a hard time being disappointed when that's pretty much what I expected from Butera as Joe Mauer's backup.

Alex Burnett- Burnett was a slight shock to make the team out of Spring Training, as it took an injury to Joe Nathan and Clay Condrey to get him on the roster. And even then many fans, myself included, wanted to see Anthony Slama instead. Burnett, however, has quickly become a fixture in the bullpen, pitching both in long relief and in some high-leverage situations. His ERA is very good (2.70), his FIP is solid (3.22), but his xFIP is only so-so thanks to a very low HR/FB rate of 3.0 %.

Danny Valencia- Valencia, who many wanted to see start the year in Minnesota as the regular third baseman, made his debut in early June after Alexi Casilla underwent elbow surgery. Through 43 plate appearances Valencia has exhibited the characteristics that had others questioning his viability as the long-term answer at the hot corner. He's drawn just 2 walks, has a strikeout rate of 22 %, and has just one extra base hit, leaving his .317 average a very empty one. Of course, it's still very early in his career and we may yet see him make the adjustments to become a future big-league starter.

Wilson Ramos- Ramos burst onto the scene with a 7-9 performance in his first two games that also included 3 doubles. After that, however, Ramos slumped to the tune of one hit in 20 at bats to go with no extra base hits and no walks. At that point, Mauer returned from his injury, forcing Ramos back to AAA. Ramos, a consensus top-5 prospect for the Twins, still has some work to do, particularly in regard to his plate discipline, but his hot start is an indicator of what may be possible in years to come (just not with the Twins!).

Trevor Plouffe- In need of a shortstop after Casilla and J.J. Hardy hit the DL, Minnesota turned to former first-round pick Trevor Plouffe. The prospect seemed to finally be putting things together in AAA and was deserving of the opportunity. His time in the bigs, however, has been largely unsuccessful, to put it gently. So far he has just 3 hits in 23 at bats, an on-base percentage lower than his batting average, and an OPS under .300. Obviously it's far too soon to make any judgment on Plouffe's true ability, but the early returns are not encouraging.

Luke Hughes- On April 29th Hughes made his first big league appearance and promptly homered in his first plate appearance. He got the very definition of a cup of coffee, though, as he played in only one more game the next day before heading back to Rochester. In all he totaled just 7 at bats, collecting 2 hits and the aforementioned home run.


All in all, the Twins call-ups have exhibited one glaring deficiency: a lack of plate discipline. As a whole they've batted 147 times, drawn exactly 3 walks, and accumulated 33 strikeouts. That's a walk rate of just 2.0 %! Even Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young would be ashamed of that! If I sounded like a broken record going through their performances, that's why.

Prospect Videos

I finally uploaded these videos from the 2nd game of a Rock Cats doubleheader on August 1st.

Deolis Guerra:


Luke Hughes:


Juan Portes:


Steve Singleton:

May in Review: Minor Leagues

Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Record: 17-14
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 138/135
Hitter of the Month: Luke Hughes, 3B
90 PA, 5 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 1/1 SB, 10 BB, 19 K, .273/.356/.481/.837
The question with Hughes has always been his defense, as he has done nothing but hit for the past couple seasons. This month was not really anything special for Hughes, but it was still enough for him to be Rochester's top hitter for the month. He still strikes out a lot, but continued his improved plate discipline this season by posting a walk rate over 11% for the 2nd straight month.
Pitcher of the Month: Juan Morillo, RHP
11 G, 17 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 10 H, 5 ER, GB%: 30
Morillo was sent down after a brief walk-filled stint with the Twins, and he pitched well enough to be the Red Wings pitcher of the month for May. He still walks too many hitters, but they did not come back to hurt him as much this month as he allowed hitters to hit only .175 as well as continuing to post an amazing strikeout rate.

New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
Record: 17-13
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 165/161
Hitter of the Month: Whitney Robbins, 1B
109 PA, 6 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 0/0 SB, 15 BB, 15 K, .370/.450/.598/1.048
Robbins's great month was just enough to prevent Danny Valencia from winning this award for the 2nd month in a row. Robbins has always been a patient hitter, and this month he showed a lot of the power that we saw in his minor league debut back in 2006. He now has a nearly .200 ISO on the season along with a .405 wOBA.
Pitcher of the Month: Rob Delaney, RHP
15 G, 21.2 IP, 20 K, 5 BB, 19 H, 4 ER, GB%: 56
I've talked about Delaney a number of times here, and basically his call up to AAA is way overdue. His great numbers this month were actually worse than what he did in April.

Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Record: 20-8
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 134/102
Hitter of the Month: Ben Revere, CF
105 PA, 4 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 10/15 SB, 6 BB, 10 K, .388/.430/.449/.879
Revere had a great month in May, though it was even more batting average dependent than usual for him. Luckily for him, he has shown the consistent ability in the minors to hit for a high average, but hopefully this month's decreases in walk rate and ISO were simply blips on the radar rather than true changes in his ability.
Pitcher of the Month: David Bromberg, RHP
6 G, 31 IP, 27 K, 14 BB, 19 H, 5 ER, GB%: 54
This was a tough choice, as Blair Erickson and Spencer Steedley both had great months out of the bullpen, but they pitched only 12 innings each. Therefore, the Miracle pitcher of the month award goes to Bromberg, who was one of the leaders of a pitching staff that allowed only 3.6 runs per game in May. He closed out the month with 12 strikeouts in 6 innings in his last start, and had an earlier start where he allowed only 1 hit in 7.2 innings.

Beloit Snappers (A)
Record: 11-19
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 147/173
Hitter of the Month: Nathan Hanson, 3B
96 PA, 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 2/2 SB, 8 BB, 16 K, .291/.365/.477/.842
It was a bad month for the Snappers, as they were the only Twins' affiliate to be outscored or under .500, and it wasn't close in either case. Nonetheless, it was not a bad month for the 22 year old former Golden Gopher. He posted a .186 ISO in May after having only 2 extra base hits (both doubles) and an .044 ISO in April.
Pitcher of the Month: Brad Tippett, RHP
6 G, 35 IP, 28 K, 6 BB, 30 H, 9 ER, GB%: 51
Another Australian signing for the Twins, Tippett was one of the few bright spots for the Snappers in May. Tippett showed great control, walking only 1.54 per 9 innings, and induced more ground balls than in the past. His 2.31 ERA led the Snappers' rotation in May, as the staff as a whole allowed almost 6 runs per game.

Top 15 Prospects

Here's my list of the top 15 prospects in the Twins' organization:

1. CF Ben Revere- 20 (A)
Revere was the Twins’ first round draft pick in 2007, and critics instantly panned the pick of the 5-9 outfielder as a cheap move when he signed for the lowest first-round bonus in years. So far, though, the choice has worked out in the Twins’ favor, whether motivated by money or not. Revere batted .325/.388/.461 with 21 stolen bases (out of 30 attempts) in 50 games for the rookie league GCL Twins after signing, and has put up video game numbers so far this season. In 27 games for Class A Beloit, Revere has hit .418/.468/.589 with a 13:10 K:BB ratio. Revere hasn’t walked much in his brief minor league career, but he’s only struck out 30 times in 332 career at bats. Also, for all the talk of his zero power, a .171 isolated power is nothing to sneeze at, especially for a 20-year old with all the other tools that Revere has. He does need to work on his base running, however, as he’s only 17-27 in stolen base attempts this season. Especially with his 6.28 speed over 60 yards, he should be stealing at a much higher percentage.
If he keeps performing like this, Revere will move quickly through the Twins’ system, but as a 20-year old in Class A, he still won’t be playing in the Metrodome. I could see the Twins promoting him to Fort Myers late in this season if he keeps playing so well at Beloit, but it’s more likely that they’ll stick to their general one-level-a-year rule.

2. RHP Deolis Guerra- 19 (A+)
Guerra came over to the Twins from the Mets in the Santana trade as the high-upside 18-year old minor leaguer. If the Twins had signed him, he would probably still be in EST and playing short-season ball now, but after playing in the FSL last year for the Mets and holding his own there, the Twins decided not to demote him and he started the season in Fort Myers. While his won-loss record looks pretty, he has not been very effective thus far in the season. He has a terrible 32:26 K:BB ratio in 55.1 innings and has given up a ton of fly balls (0.64 GO/FO ratio). The most disappointing thing about those numbers is the decline from last year in the same league. Of course, Guerra is still a 6-5 19-year old who is already in Class A Advanced and has the same fastball and great changeup that scouts loved before the season. It’s weird that much of the #2 prospect’s description was spent on negatives, but that’s because all I have to go on are the stats, which aren’t looking so good this year. With the Twins’ conservative ways, Guerra won’t be heading to New Britain anytime soon (which is unfortunate considering the proximity to my home) unless he truly dominates with Fort Myers.

3. LHP Tyler Robertson- 20 (A+)
Robertson was drafted out of high school as the Twins’ 3rd round pick in 2006. An injury in the Beloit rotation in 2007 gave him his first full season opportunity and he hasn’t looked back since. He dominated the Midwest League as a 19-year old last year with 123 strikeouts in 102.1 innings and a 1.85 GO/FO ratio. So far in Fort Myers, Robertson has picked up right where he left off in 2007. Even though his numbers have dropped across the board, as should be expected for a 20-year old getting his first taste of a new level, he’s been very good in the Fort Myers rotation thus far. He doesn’t have a blazing fastball, but he pairs his average fastball with a great hard slider and of course still has time to improve his fastball as well.

4. RHP Anthony Swarzak- 22 (AA)
After a strong season with Fort Myers in 2006, Swarzak was looking towards continuing his road to Minnesota in New Britain in 2007. However, after two bad starts there, the Twins’ 2nd round pick in 2004 was suspended for violating the league’s (non-performance enhancing) drug policy. Once he came back from the suspension, though, he proved that he was still among the Twins’ best pitching prospects. Swarzak has struck out around 8 batters per 9 innings the last two seasons, and this year so far he has bumped that up to almost a batter per inning. More importantly, he cut his BB/9 rate from 3.7 in 2006 to fewer than 3.0 in 2007 and 2008. Of course, Swarzak has always given up a ton of fly balls, and it has been even worse so far this year, which means that his 4.18 ERA might be a little lucky considering he’s only given up 4 homers in 56 innings. After a great start to the season, Swarzak has struggled lately, but he should still be in line for a promotion to Rochester as soon a spot opens up there.

5. C Wilson Ramos- 20 (A+)
Ramos, signed out of Venezuela in 2004, had a fine season for the Beloit Snappers in ’07, but jolted up prospect lists after his dominant performance in the Venezuelan winter league (I’d post stats if I could find them). The Twins moved him up to High Class A for 2008, and after a slow start he has started picking it up of late. A .236/.289/.421 isn’t very flashy or eye-popping, but it is very solid for a 20-year old catcher in the Florida State League, where his OPS is actually slightly above the league average without even adjusting for the fact that he is a catcher. However, he needs to get more selective at the plate, as his 13:50 BB:K ratio suggests. Baseball America ranked Ramos as the best defensive catcher in the Twins’ minor league system, and scouts rave about his defense as much as his offense. The fact that he’s only 9 for 28 throwing out runners this year disputes that fact somewhat, but I’m willing to trust the scouts who’ve watched him play many, many times over me who’s seen him play for exactly zero seconds, especially when it comes to defense. Ramos should spend the 2008 season in Fort Myers, and possibly even start there next year if he doesn’t get comfortable there this year; he’s still got plenty of time, so there’s no need to rush him unless his play absolutely merits it.

6. RHP Jeff Manship- 23 (A+)
The only reason that Manship is ranked this low is that, at 23 years of age, he is old for the league that he’s playing in. Based on performance alone, the Twins’ 2006 14th round pick out of Notre Dame would possibly be the #1 starter in the system. Manship has been a dominating ground-ball machine since joining the Twins’ system, garnering ground balls at about a 2 to 1 rate over his minor league career. His performance at every level has been exceptional as he has issued only one free pass for about every four strikeouts over the course of his career with an 8.3 K/9 rate. Manship’s ERA this season in Fort Myers dropped to 2.72 after his complete game shutout of Dunedin last night and the ground-ball machine still has yet to allow a home run this season. As soon as Swarzak moves up to Rochester or another spot opens up in New Britain, this college pitcher should move up as he has nothing left to prove at these lower levels.

7. 3B Luke Hughes- 23 (AA)
I had a lot of trouble figuring out where to rank this Twins’ farmhand, and there’s a pretty good chance I’ll end up regretting putting him this high if he turns out to be just another guy a little old for his league who mashes for a couple months after a mediocre minor league career, but he’s turned me into a believer. I simply can’t ignore the ridiculous .335/.407/.618 line he’s put up so far this year that is 37% better than average in the Eastern League, which, for comparison, is the just how far above average Justin Morneau was in his stint at AA New Britain (albeit at a younger age). Of course, I’m not suggesting that Hughes will become anything close to what Morneau is, but it gives an idea of exactly how well Hughes has been playing. Hughes is a versatile player who has played third, second, and all three outfield positions this year. Before this season, he had been primarily a second baseman, but in 2008 he has played 30 out of his 46 games at third. Hughes should be promoted to Rochester as soon as possible, as it’s time to find out if he is for real or just another flash in the pan.

8. RHP Kevin Mulvey- 23 (AAA)
Mulvey is the first prospect on the list to be close to actually helping the Twins, though he still probably won’t be called up anytime soon. The Twins already have an extra starter in Boof Bonser, and with the way he’s been pitching of late, Francisco Liriano is probably ahead of Mulvey if the need for another starter arises. Mulvey has been disappointing thus far in 2008, as his ground ball rate has shrunk and his walk rate has risen 50% from last season (when he pitched mainly in AA). His strikeout rate is very good this year, with 54 K in 61.1 innings, a significant increase from his 113 in 157.2 innings last year in the Mets’ organization. The increase in walk rate and decrease in ground ball rate are hopefully just attributable to his getting adjusted to the new level, and Mulvey still has a good shot of fulfilling his potential as a #3 or #4 starter, though that shot probably won’t come this year (at least as a starter).

9. SS Trevor Plouffe- 21 (AA)
The Twins’ first round pick in 2004 has made his way into a lot of discussions about the Twins’ future shortstop plans, but I’m not as high as him as others are despite his #9 ranking. His youth and decent play in a higher level get him ranked ahead of other, younger prospects like Deibinson Romero and Danny Valencia, but I just don’t think his ceiling is very high. To me, he has a good chance of playing in the majors, but does not have the potential of turning into anything more than an average player that someone like Romero has. So far in 2008, Plouffe has performed remarkably similarly to his play last season, which was also in AA. If he showed some improvement over last year, I would believe in his higher ceiling, but his .274/.326/.410 line is almost exactly the same as the .275/.335/.415 that he’s hitting this year. In addition, his plate discipline has improved only marginally (IsoD increased by 8 points), while his BB:K ratio has decreased slightly from 0.43 to 0.37. Of course, I’m focusing only on the negatives. The positive side is that Plouffe is a soon-to-be 22 year old shortstop who has held his own in AA for two years now, and has a very good chance to play with the Twins by the end of next year, though it may be as a backup or role player rather than starter.

10. 3B Deibinson (D.J.) Romero- 21 (A)
Romero is only three months younger than Plouffe, yet is two levels behind him; this is more of a credit to Plouffe than a knock on Romero. Romero, though, has put up excellent numbers thus far in his minor league career. He led the rookie-league Elizabethton Twins to a 50-18 record with his .316/.406/.506 hitting line. He began 2008 with Beloit, but got injured after playing in 17 games, which is too small of a sample to read anything into (though his .214/.242/.339 line was not very pretty). The driving force behind Romero’s breakout year at Elizabethton was his improved pitch selection and plate discipline. After sporting a 1:3 BB:K ratio and about a .065 isolated discipline in his first two minor league seasons, he cut his BB:K ratio to 1:1.4 and upped his IsoD to .080. Romero plays solid defense at third, and projects to be able to play it all the way to the majors if he makes it there. Right now, let’s just hope that he recovers from his injury so he can get back to the field and continue moving up the prospect list.

11. OF/1B Chris Parmelee- 20 (A)

12. OF Joe Benson- 20 (A)

13. 3B Danny Valencia- 23 (A+)

14. RHP Anthony Slama- 24 (A+)

15. OF Rene Tosoni- 21 (A+)

The MLB draft is Thursday at 2 PM, and I hope to have some sort of preview done by Thursday morning. Luckily for me, I'm sure no one reading this actually cares about the draft, so no one will be dissapointed if I don't do it (I'd be happy if someone actually scrolled down far enough to read this).

Minor League Update

I don't know if I'll do this regularly, but I just felt like doing a minor league post today. I check the minor league box scores every night, so it just depends on if I decide to post about them.

Note: I'm not including runs and RBIs as stats, because for me this is a look at who might help the Twins in the future, and I don't think those stats are very indicative of a hitter's talents.

Who's Hot:

Denard Span (AAA): Last 5 games- .450/.500/.545, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 6-6 SB
Span has continued his solid season at Rochester since being sent back down. He's never going to hit for power, but improved plate discipline (10:8 BB:K for the season) and baserunning (11-13 SB compared to 25-39 in 2007) could go a long way toward making him a serviceable major leaguer if he keeps it up this season.

Luke Hughes (AA): Last 10 games- .417/.462/.667, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 1-1 SB
The best part about these numbers is that they're basically equal to Hughes' ridiculous .386/.448/.685 line on the season. He turns 24 in August and has played all over the field so far this season. If he continues to hit anywhere near this level, it doesn't matter where he plays; he'll find a spot in the lineup.

Ben Revere (A): Last 9 games- .432/.475/.568, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 3 K, 4-8 SB
Since getting promoted from EST on April 28th, the Twins' 2007 first round draft pick has done everything to prove that his play in the GCL league last year was no fluke. The Twins obviously thought highly of him when they took him in the first round, so now we just have to sit back and see if he can continue this hot hitting.

Who's Not

Jason Pridie (AAA): Last 5 games- .050/.136/.050, 2 BB, 5 K
When he started the season well, it looked like he would prove his 2007 season was no fluke. However, he has struggled lately and his line on the season has fallen to .270/.324/.381 while he has not had an extra base hit in his last 10 games.

Deolis Guerra (A+): Last 2 starts- 8.1 IP, 15 H, 11 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Guerra just turned 19 and is already in High-A, so these couple of bad starts mean nothing in terms of his long-term potential. Obviously it would be more encouraging if he was lights out for Fort Myers, but his numbers on the season are still decent even with these starts.

Drew Butera (AA): Last 10 games- .067/.263/.067, 8 BB, 11 K
Butera has managed 8 BB in his last 10 games, but when you have 2 singles in your last 30 at bats, it's hard to stay off of this list. His play isn't that concerning to me, though, as I've never expected him to have any role with the big league team since his acquisition in the Castillo trade.