Who is Justin Morneau?

Morneau slides in for the winning run of the 2008 All-Star Game in the 15th inning

Justin Morneau, the Twins' first basemen, hails from Canada and grew up playing and loving hockey.  Although he does not have the hometown appeal that Mauer does, he makes up one half of Minnesota's M&M Boys, beloved by Twins fans and feared by opposing pitchers.  Morneau is one of the very few true power hitters that Minnesota developed in its own minor league system, as the Twins have a penchant for valuing light-hitting speedsters and consequently producing that type of player.

After tearing through the minor leagues, Morneau put on the big league uniform for the first time in June of 2003.  His debut season was brief and not all that impressive, but he built on it in 2004, putting up substantial power numbers in the half-season he spent with the big league club.  The next season, 2005, was a struggle, as he was seemingly never himself for the rest of the year after getting hit in the head with a pitch in April.  This would prove all-too foreboding later on in his career.

Just as Joe Mauer did, Morneau put himself on the map with an awesome year in 2006.  He slugged 34 homers, the first Twin to hit more than 30 in twenty years, and drove in 130 runs, his first of four consecutive seasons with at least 100 RBIs, while also batting .321.  All this was good enough to earn him the MVP award despite the fact that he had not even made the All-Star team.  Morneau's selection was controversial, and rightfully so, but there was no doubt that he had put together a great year.

2007 saw Morneau make his first All-Star team, the first of four consecutive selections, but the second half was rough and he finished with numbers significantly worse than the year before.  He didn't play appreciably better in 2008, but the MVP voters viewed it differently as he finished runner-up.  He did have a great All-Star Weekend, winning the Home Run Derby and then scoring the winning run in the All-Star Game in the 15th inning.  The fact that he played all 163 games for the Twins may have been a factor in the MVP voting, and it certainly was a factor in Morneau again wearing down in September and playing poorly during the stretch run.

This would become a pattern, as Morneau's 2009 season also ended similarly.  He played poorly from mid-August on before his season closed prematurely due to a back injury, putting a damper on an otherwise very good season.  And it happened once more in 2010, although through little fault of Morneau's this time.  He put together an incredible first half, this time legitimately halfway to earning an MVP award, before he took a seemingly innocuous hit to the head when sliding into second base to break up a double play on July 7th.  As it turned out, Morneau had suffered a concussion and would not return to the field until 2011 Spring Training as a result of post-concussion symptoms.

His 2011 season has been a struggle.  Perhaps still affected by the concussion, either mentally or physically, and certainly affected by a myriad of other injuries, Morneau has battled through his worst season ever before finally succumbing to the Disabled List because of neck surgery.  The Twins' biggest power threat, and one of their most popular players, fans continue to hope that when Morneau returns this time it will be with all of these injuries behind him once and for all.

Elf Yourself #2

Roster Updates

The Twins' roster underwent a minor overhaul during the past weekend.  The acquisition of Matt Capps meant the Twins had 13 pitchers, meaning they needed to cut that number down by one.  Nick Punto also hit the disabled list, which is becoming a monthly-scheduled event now, resulting in the need for another middle infielder.

The beneficiary of the Punto injury is Trevor Plouffe, who will see his second stint in the big leagues this season.  The addition of Capps, meanwhile, forced Nick Blackburn to AAA, after his recent demotion to the bullpen.  I was very glad to see it was Blackburn, and not Anthony Slama, who was sent down to the minors.  I figured the Twins, with their obvious reluctance to give Slama a chance, would have seen enough of him after he gave up runs in two of his first three outings.  Fortunately, that's not the case (at least not yet), and Slama will get more opportunities to show off the dominant form that finally earned him the promotion.

In the  meantime, Justin Morneau continues to very slowly work his way back from his concussion.  He was scheduled to take batting practice yesterday, but will instead do so today.  Apparently the decision to hold off a day was made solely because of the amount of people around during the Twins family day on Sunday.  As a very important member of the Twins, and also a member of one of my two fantasy teams, it's painful to see him work his way back so slowly.  Don't mistake that for me calling him weak or anything; head injuries are a serious issue, but when he originally planned to miss just a few days, it's tough to watch his stay on the disabled list become never-ending.  By the way, he still ranks third in MLB with 5.2 WAR.

Morneau, Take Two

As has been the Twins' theme this year, it appears Justin Morneau will belatedly find his way to the disabled list after first trying to stay on the active roster.  As I said in an earlier post, this is particularly worrisome for Morneau, who was the victim of a concussion back in 2004.  That season he was never able to return to form and wound up hitting under .240.  Despite the fact that Morneau himself has said this feels nothing like when he got hit in the head with a pitch six years ago, I remain very concerned that this could affect even when he eventually returns from the disabled list.  In the meantime, it will be interesting to see who the Twins choose to take his place on the 25-man roster.

Twins Update: Starting Rotation, Morneau, Mauer

The Twins hit the All-Star break in a bit of a slide.  They lost four games in a row before their series-salvaging win yesterday against Detroit and enter the break in third place.  Of course it was none other than Carl Pavano who stepped up and pitched an excellent game to put the Twins in position to win.  That followed terrible outings from the Twins' previous two starters, Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn.  Blackburn has been nothing short of horrendous the entire year, which is unfortunate considering a) the Twins signed him to a 4-year deal in the offseason, and b) he's been in the starting rotation the entire year!

I continue to have faith in Liriano, despite some struggles over his last couple of starts.  Maybe that's just the fantasy owner in me--since I own him in both of my leagues--but his FIP is still a dazzling 2.19, even after Friday's meltdown, and his xFIP is just 2.97.  Blackburn, however, has no such redeeming features.  Since the beginning of June, he's lasted more than four innings in just three of his eight starts.  Not coincidentally, those three starts are the only ones in that span in which he's walked more batters than he's struck out.  In total, he's walked 14 batters against just 17 strikeouts and allowed 43 runs (40 earned) in 36 innings.  Yes, his ERA is over nine during that period, which is pretty easy to do when you've surrendered at least 4 runs in all but one start.

Scott Baker is another guy who I have a fantasy investment in, and a lot of patience with.  The cortisone shot he had this past weekend is a little worrisome, but hopefully the extra rest will solve that problem.  Otherwise, I am very confident in Baker.  It's just maddening how poorly he's doing considering his peripheral stats.  He's walking a career low number of batters, and he's striking them out at a career-high rate.  His K:BB ratio on the season is an even 5.00, good for third in the Majors, and he still continues to be battered around on the mound.

That number ranks behind only Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, and just ahead of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke, and Josh Johnson.  That sounds like some pretty good company to me.  Incidentally, the Twins have 4 of the top 16 pitchers in K:BB ratio, with Liriano placing 12th (3.90), Pavano 13th (3.82), and Kevin Slowey 16th (3.58).  The one starter not ranked near the top is, of course, Blackburn, who ranks in the bottom ten with his typically embarrassing mark of 1.26.

Back to Baker, though.  His recent run has been particularly frustrating.  Even though he has struck out 25 batters in his last four starts (23.1 innings) and walked ZERO, he's managed to give up 17 runs.  If you go back one more start, he's struck out 37 batters and walked one over his last 30.1 innings, so suffice to say, I just don't understand how he can possibly continue putting up those ugly surface numbers.


The MVPs are both banged up now, with Justin Morneau suffering from a blow to the head and Joe Mauer dealing with general catcher fatigue.  Generally I think baseball players are pretty much wimps, but anything involving a head injury or the soreness from catching have my sympathy.  (A quick aside: physical exhaustion from DHing a few days in a row certainly qualifies as one of the things that gives me that impression.  I'm looking at you, Jim Thome.)  With Morneau, I think back to the time when he was hit in the head with a pitch all the way back in 2005.  He never seemed to fully recover during the season, and struggled to his worst statistical year by far.  This, however, seems much less serious--and Morneau has said it doesn't feel anything like that time--but I still keep that in the back of my mind.

While Morneau's injury will prevent him from starting or playing in the All-Star game on Tuesday, all indications are that Mauer will play.  If he was sore enough that he couldn't play yesterday, I'd like to see him sit it out, but then again I would be disappointed if neither Mauer nor Morneau were able to play since it would also mean the Twins would not be represented on the playing field.

Just as I have faith in Liriano and Baker, I have faith in the Twins as a whole.  I still think they are the best team in the division, and I think they will prove it in the second half.

Late Review of September and October

With the excitement late in the season, my computer being broken, and the work I had to do, this is way late. But it's here now.

September
Record: 16-11
Best record at any point (games above .500): 82-74
Worst record at any point (games below .500): 70-72
Days in first (and biggest lead): 0 (2.0 GB)
Days in last (and furthest out of first): 0 (7.0 GB)
Longest win streak: 6 games
Longest losing streak: 3 games
Runs scored/runs against: 126/104
Most runs scored/most runs allowed: 11/12
Shutouts/times shut out: 3/0
Extra inning games: 1
Longest game: 10 innings


Hitter of the month: Michael Cuddyer (103 AB, 13 R, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 4 BB:18 K, 1 SB, .282/.321/.563)
After Justin Morneau went down with his injury, with the Twins 7 games behind the Tigers, all seemed lost. It was largely thanks to Cuddyer that the Twins were able to make up the seemingly insurmountable deficit. Not only did he fill the need at first base, he hit the best he had the entire year, and did it in the clutch too. He came up with 8 games with over .100 WPA after Morneau went down, including the huge go-ahead home run against the Royals with two games left in the regular season.

Bizarro World hitter of the month: Justin Morneau (39 AB, 2 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB:8 K, 0 SB, .077/.178/.179)
I hate to pick on Morneau when he was battling through an injured back, but it just wasn't even close. Morneau had only 3 hits in 39 at bats, and every other player with more than 45 at bats had at least a .744 OPS. In order to catch Detroit, everyone had to play well; meaning that it was the one who wasn't playing then who gets this award. At least he got his 30th home run and 100th RBI before he went down for the season.

Pitcher of the month: Jesse Crain (3-0, 13.1 IP, 5 H, 6 BB, 7 K, 0.00/0.83)
Crain was demoted earlier this year, but he came back strong in September to play a role in Minnesota's comeback. Though he had a very weak K:BB ratio, he limited baserunners, didn't allow a single run, and contributed a positive WPA in 12 of the 15 games he pitched. The 3 games in October didn't go as well, since he allowed runs in 2 of those appearances, including a go-ahead run in the 10th inning of the play-in game. But that wasn't September, so it doesn't count.

Bizarro World pitcher of the month: Jeff Manship (0-1, 19.1 IP, 22 H, 11 BB, 14 K, 6.05/1.71)
Manship was booted out of the starting rotation briefly in September, and for good reason. He lasted 5 innings just once in 4 starts, and allowed at least 3 runs in 3 of those starts. All in all, it wasn't a horrible showing from a rookie making his first starts in the big leagues, but most everyone else picked up their game in the Twins' push for the postseason, leaving Manship as the recipient of this award.


October
Record: 5-0
Best record at any point (games above .500): 87-76
Worst record at any point (games below .500): 82-76
Days in first (and biggest lead): 3 (1.0 GB)
Days in last (and furthest out of first): 0 (2.0 GB)
Longest win streak: 5 games
Longest losing streak: 0 games
Runs scored/runs against: 42/23
Most runs scored/most runs allowed: 13/7
Shutouts/times shut out: 0/0
Extra inning games: 1
Longest game: 12 innings

Plays of the Week

At the suggestion of frequent commenter Barnacle, I have decided to start posting defensive plays of the week to go with the Hot & Cold feature. I can't post the videos directly because of Major League Baseball's strict copyright laws, but I will put up pictures and link to the videos.

Usually I'll include it in the same post as Hot & Cold, but since it's the inaugural edition, I figured I'd let it stand alone.

#3- Delmon Young makes the catch in foul ground and completes the double play by nailing Alberto Callaspo at home plate. Unfortunately, even with that play, the Twins were already down 9-1 in the 4th inning.

#2- Orlando Cabrera robs Billy Butler of a base-hit, sliding to his right and getting up quickly to make a strong throw to first base. He would do it again the next day in almost the exact same fashion, but it would be too boring to have both of them on this list.

#1- Matt Guerrier attempts to start a double play, but throws low and Cabrera can't handle it. As the ball bounces away, Josh Anderson takes off for third, but Nick Punto is alert and chases the ball down and fires it to Joe Crede just in time to get Anderson out.


Oddball play of the week: Justin Morneau strikes out and makes it all the way back to the dugout before the umpires confer and allow him to continue hitting. After looking at the ball, they determine that he did tip it (inconclusive on the replay) and that it hit the ground before Kelly Shoppach caught it (also inconclusive). With the Indians already trailing 9-0, Eric Wedge of course gets tossed and really gets his money's worth.

July in Review

The Twins played their fifth extra inning game of their July schedule last night, and it ended in a disappointing manner. Despite leading 5-2, the Twins lost to the Angels 11-5 in 11 innings. Bobby Keppel and Jesse Crain were the bullpen culprits, combining to allow the first 8 batters to reach in the final inning. It was an ugly loss, so let's hope the Twins can start August on a better foot.

Record: 12-12
Best record at any point (games above .500): 47-44
Worst record at any point (games below .500): 48-50
Days in first (and biggest lead): 0 (2.0 GB)
Days in last (and furthest out of first): 0 (5.0 GB)
Longest win streak: 4 games
Longest losing streak: 4 games
Runs scored/runs against: 128/140
Most runs scored/most runs allowed: 13/16
Shutouts/times shut out: 0/0
Extra inning games: 5
Longest game: 16 innings


Hitter of the month: Justin Morneau (93 AB, 16 R, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 15 BB:19 K, .280/.380/.559)
Despite hitting worse than he has for the year as a whole, Morneau finally managed to earn hitter of the month honors in 2009. Yet again it was a close contest between he and Jason Kubel, but Morneau's extra playing time was what pushed me in his favor. In the month, Morneau had two 2-homer games and set a career high with 7 RBIs in one game. He didn't end the month well, though, going 0 for his last 12 and striking out 5 times.

Bizarro World hitter of the month: Brendan Harris (75 AB, 8 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB:17 K, .187/.218/.307)
The whole middle infield was pretty awful this July (as with the entire year), so I could have chosen Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla pretty easily. Punto, though, had slightly better numbers than Harris, and Casilla's 7-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 5 stolen bases, combined with his less time in the lineup, made Harris the choice. While many people, myself included, aren't sure how much of an upgrade Orlando Cabrera will be, it's pretty clear from looking at their July stats that a move of some kind was necessary.


Pitcher of the month: Matt Guerrier (2-0, 16.1 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 0.49/0.55)
Guerrier was magnificent this month, and only in his final outing did he allow a run--unfortunately it was a game-tying homer from Mike Napoli. But enough with the negative, as Guerrier allowed less than a baserunner every other inning. It's all part of an excellent year for Guerrier, who's quietly accumulated an ERA of 2.09 and a WHIP of 0.79. Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan, who combine with Guerrier to be the only legitimate relief options, also had very good months.

Bizarro World pitcher of the month: R.A. Dickey (0-1, 17 IP, 28 H, 9 BB, 9 K, 7.94/2.18)
While the few good relievers the Twins have were pitching very well, the rest of the bullpen was lobbing batting practice to opposing hitters. Dickey, Jesse Crain, Bobby Keppel, Kevin Mulvey, and Brian Duensing combined to throw 57 innings and give up 76 hits and 44 runs, while also walking 29 batters, the same number they struck out. Dickey was the worst of the bunch, allowing more than 2 baserunners per inning and giving up more than 3 runs on four different occasions.

All-Star (?) Rosters: Part 1

Well, for the most part, they are. When all is said and done, the rosters aren't bad. But there are certainly a few egregious mistakes. And why Major League Baseball continues to require one player from each team to make it still mystifies me. Without further ado...


American League

Catcher
Starter: Joe Mauer
Reserve: Victor Martinez
ESPN pick: Joe Mauer
My pick: Joe Mauer
This is the easiest one by far. Mauer is so far ahead of the rest of the catching competition its ridiculous. If you click on the link to catcher stats above, you'll see ESPN doesn't have Martinez in that category, even though he's played 41 of his 81 games there. Martinez is almost as easy a choice for the backup as Mauer is for the starting job.

First Base
Starter: Mark Teixeira
Reserves: Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau
ESPN pick: Justin Morneau
My pick: Justin Morneau
While the last time I updated my All-Star picks my choice of Morneau was a slight stretch, this time it is completely reasonable. He leads AL first basemen in runs, RBIs, batting average, slugging percent, and OPS, and is second in home runs and on base percentage. Youkilis and Teixeira are both deserving All-Stars, though, so I won't complain. Russell Branyan, unsurprisingly, got little support, despite posting numbers that compare favorably to Teixeira. Carlos Pena and Miguel Cabrera are having nice season too, but this position is just too loaded for them to be considered here.

Second Base
Starter: Dustin Pedroia
Reserve: Aaron Hill
ESPN pick: Aaron Hill
My pick: Ian Kinsler
I was afraid this would happen despite the fact that Kinsler had the lead in voting from day one. Pedroia, who is well behind Kinsler (and Hill) in just about every stat, got the start because he wears a Red Sox jersey. And because of that, Kinsler may not even make the All-Star game because Hill got the back-up spot. Hill has been the #2 second basemen in the AL to this point, but Kinsler should have been chosen for the spot after the fans misguidedly picked Pedroia.

Shortstop
Starter: Derek Jeter
Reserve: Jason Bartlett
ESPN pick: Derek Jeter
My pick: Jason Bartlett
This is the one spot where I would break my own rule; no matter how much better than the next guy Jeter was doing, I would not choose him. I would grudgingly choose a Yankee if he deserved it, but I will never pick Derek Jeter. But in this case, I don't think I even have to resort to that. Despite the time he missed with an injury, Bartlett's cumulative stats are comparable to Jeter's, and his slash stats are much better. In fact, I think you'd be hard-pressed to come up with a good argument for Jeter over Bartlett. I suppose Jeter might merit the backup spot, but only because my argument for Marco Scutaro had a ton of holes.

Third Base
Starter: Evan Longoria
Reserve: Michael Young
ESPN pick: Evan Longoria
My pick: Evan Longoria
The only discussion necessary here is whether or not Michael Young was a good choice as a reserve, because Longoria easily outdistanced the rest of the third-base crop. Given more time, Alex Rodriguez could have given him a run for his money, but as it stands now he's not close. Still, I think I'd have to give him the backup spot over Young due to his 45:31 K:BB ratio and AL 3B-high .929 OPS, but since he's a Yankee I don't really mind. I think it was his .244 average that turned off the players and manager from selecting him, though. Brandon Inge and Scott Rolen are comparable to Young, making it basically a toss-up between the three, but I would pick either of them over Young for their defense.

Outfield
Starters: Jason Bay, Ichiro Suzuki, Josh Hamilton
Reserves: Carl Crawford, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter, Adam Jones, Ben Zobrist
ESPN picks: Torii Hunter, Jason Bay, Ichiro Suzuki
My picks: Torii Hunter, Jason Bay, Jermaine Dye
Bay was certainly a good choice, and I'd definitely have Ichiro as a reserve, but Hamilton does not belong here at all. I was really hoping Hunter would overtake him...but oh well. I was surprised to see Zobrist as an All-star selection, but upon looking it up he's quite deserving, though he's actually played more at second base. I was also less surprised when I learned Joe Maddon selected him. Jermaine Dye, along with Shin-Soo Choo (and Johnny Damon to a lesser extent), garnered almost no consideration for the All-star game, which confounds me. Granderson is having a solid year, but there were better choices. Jones, who previously was getting altogether too little support, has plummeted from being the AL leader in OPS to being a borderline All-star choice. So, to make it simple, I'd have these 8 outfielders: Hunter, Bay, Dye, Suzuki, Zobrist, Choo, Damon, and Jones. Crawford and Nelson Cruz just miss the cut.

Roster Updates

There's been a lot going on with the Twins the past few days, so this is as much for me to keep track of everything that's happened recently as it is for you readers.

==>Most notably, Luis Ayala was designated for assignment. I know he wasn't great, but I'd much rather have him than Sean Henn on the roster right now, even if it means there's only one lefty in the bullpen. Bobby Keppel got the call from AAA to replace Ayala.

==>Denard Span is headed to Rochester for a rehab assignment and will hopefully return to the Twins on Wednesday. That means Jason Pridie will be going back to AAA then, and most likely will still be hitless in his big league career. He's made just one pinch-running appearance during his Major League stint.

==>Nick Punto bruised his ribs on Saturday night sliding head first into first base--how appropriate! He might have been safe if he'd run through the base (as it's always quicker), but he definitely would not have gotten injured.

==>Justin Morneau missed his first game in almost 2 years on Sunday, after playing all 163 games last season. With the day off Monday, that makes two consecutive days of rest, but over at the Star Tribune they're only saying it's 'probable' that he'll be ready for today's game.

==>Jason Kubel was pulled from Sunday's game with flu-like symptoms. He will in all likelihood be ready for the Twins' series against the Brewers.

Some thoughts on All-Star voting

Each year, I reluctantly participate in All-Star voting. While I hate the process, I still feel the need to put in an effort to get the deserving players in the game. Why don't I like it? There's really one simple reason, and then one inherent flaw: it starts way too early, and totally undeserving players get voted in.

There are a number of problems with voting starting so early, and you probably are already aware of them, but I'll rehash them anyways since I've become so frustrated. Because the ballots are set so early, the decision for which player will represent their team at each position can look extremely foolish by the time the All-Star game rolls around. Just last year it not only resulted in AAA players being on the ballot (as it always does), but also in 2 players who made the All-Star team through player voting being left off the ballot entirely. In fact, those 2 players were probably deserving of starting the All-Star game, yet they didn't even get their name on the ballot!

Who were they? Carlos Quentin and Milton Bradley. When voting ended on July 2nd, Quentin was batting .281/.386/.525 with 19 homers, 61 RBIs, 5 steals, and a 41:48 BB:K ratio; meanwhile, Jerry Owens, who was on the outfield ballot for the White Sox, had not even appeared in a Major League game that season! Milton Bradley was hitting an absurd .320/.437/.611 with 17 homers, 51 RBIs, and 4 steals, though I couldn't find who was on the ballot instead of him.

This year, one of our own has been affected: Denard Span. With the outfield logjam that was in place at the start of the season, Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young both got on the ballot instead of Span (Michael Cuddyer is the 3rd Twins outfielder on the ballot). While I don't contend Span should be an All-Star, he is leagues more deserving than Young or Gomez.

Although this doesn't happen often, once is too much. What happens more regularly is horrible players, who aren't even in the big leagues anymore, wind up on the ballot, with Owens being one example. This year, Alexi Casilla is on the ballot for the Twins, despite having been sent down to the minors on May 5th, almost two months before All-Star voting will end.

The last problem with the early start is that players who don't perform initially lose votes. A perfect example is Joe Mauer. He certainly lost ground to the other AL catchers since voting started 10 days before he played his first game, but he is now clearly the deserving starter. Fortunately, Mauer's absurd hot streak means he's still in first place right now, but early voting definitely costs players in his situation.


Now I'm going to discuss the inherent flaw: people will always vote for their favorite players, rather than the most deserving. For me, that's not true--only in very close cases will I pick a player based on how much I like him. I'm sure I'm not the only one who was frustrated to see 4 Red Sox starting again last year, or Derek Jeter as the starting shortstop once more. And there's just no easy solution to this problem. As long as fans are voting, undeserving but popular players will continue to start. If it meant that better choices would be made, I would very willingly give up my votes, but there's little to no chance of Major League Baseball going that route.


With that out of the way, I figure I'll run through who I just voted for at every position, starting with the National League. Of course, my opinion can change based on how players perform, and I may post periodic updates on who I'm voting for.

[As an aside, I realize that I'm going against my own ramblings by voting well over a month before balloting concludes. My reasoning is this: after seeing undeserving players topping the voting after MLB.com released results for the first time, people need to start voting immediately to counteract these bad votes. That's why my solution would be to have voting take place for a week only and end on the same date it does now.]

--------------All stats are through Monday's games (5/25)----------------

1B: Albert Pujols
Actual Leaders: Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Carlos Delgado, Lance Berkman.
Pujols is the obvious choice here. I could see an argument for Joey Votto, as his OPS is actually a tad higher than Pujols' at this point, but Pujols' 7 stolen bases and ridiculous BB:K ratio of 35:13 get him my vote. Adrian Gonzalez is also having a nice year and should have more votes.

2B: Chase Utley
Actual Leaders: Utley, Richie Weeks, Orlando Hudson, Skip Schumaker, Luis Castillo.
Utley is another easy choice, with Orlando Hudson an easy second. Utley leads NL second basemen in home runs, OBP, SLG, and is second in RBIs. He leads OPS by a wide margin, .997 to Hudson's .909. Weeks is now out for the year, meaning Felipe Lopez, Freddy Sanchez, and Brandon Phillips are next in line if those two fall apart or get injured. Castillo, and Schumaker to a lesser degree, has no business being in the top five.

SS: Hanley Ramirez
Actual Leaders: J.J. Hardy, Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Khalil Greene.
This one is a little closer, but I'm still confident in saying that Ramirez is the pick. Looking at the stats (AVG, HR, RBI, SB) that are displayed on the ballot, I originally chose Miguel Tejada. While I would still pick him second, other stats show Ramirez to be the best NL shortstop. He leads them in runs, doubles (tied), home runs, OBP, SLG, and OPS, and also has 8 stolen bases. There's no good reason for Hardy currently being the top vote-getter, while Rollins and Greene, and Reyes to a lesser extent, are getting votes solely due to their name as they are having terrible seasons.

3B: Ryan Zimmerman
Actual Leaders: David Wright, Bill Hall, Chipper Jones, Zimmerman, Aramis Ramirez.
Third base is the first position where I can see a real debate--both Zimmerman and Wright are deserving candidates. While Zimmerman has an edge in runs, RBIs, and OPS, and a bigger lead in home runs and SLG, Wright has the advantage in OBP and stolen bases. They are both in the top 3 of NL third basemen in runs, doubles, RBIs, average, OBP, and OPS. For his advantages in the above categories, I chose Zimmerman. Casey Blake and and Chipper Jones aren't horrible picks either, while Hall and Ramirez are not deserving at all, but for different reasons; Hall has a poor .686 OPS (the lowest of the four deserving candidates I mentioned is .936), while Ramirez has only played in 18 games thus far.

C: Brian McCann
Actual Leaders: Yadier Molina, Jason Kendall, Ivan Rodriguez, Russell Martin, McCann.
This is the first one that is totally off-base. Molina, Kendall, Rodriguez, and Martin wouldn't be in my top five, meaning the first deserving candidate is fifth. McCann is first in average, OBP, and SLG among NL catchers with at least 75 plate appearances, and is tied for fourth with 5 homers and 18 RBIs. John Baker, Jesus Flores, and Chris Ianetta (in that order) would be my next choices for catcher. Bengie Molina might look to be the best, as he leads NL catchers with 8 homers and 30 RBIs, but his two walks leave him with a paltry .269 OBP and an OPS that ranks 15th of 18 catchers with at least 75 plate appearances. By the way, Kendall and Martin both rank behind him in that category.

OF: Raul Ibanez, Carlos Beltran, Justin Upton
Actual Leaders: Ryan Braun, Alfonso Soriano, Beltran, Manny Ramirez, Mike Cameron, Ibanez, Corey Hart, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Shane Victorino.
The outfield is 1-for-3, with Beltran currently in the top 3. With Ibanez's current stats, it's an embarrassment that he isn't leading the voting, much less in a starting position. He's first among NL outfielders in homers, RBIs, SLG, and OPS, and third in batting average. He's over 100 points ahead in OPS (1.135) and SLG (.726). Beltran and Upton rank 2nd and 4th, respectively, in OPS, but Upton hasn't even cracked the top 15 in voting. Other deserving players include Adam Dunn, Brad Hawpe, and Ryan Braun (in that order), meaning that the majority of players topping the list should not be there.


And now the American League.

1B: Justin Morneau
Actual Leaders: Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Morneau, Chris Davis.
This is easy both because Morneau is a Twin, but also because he is either first or second among AL first basemen in almost every category. He's first in: runs, triples, RBIs, SLG, and OPS; he's second in: hits, doubles, home runs, average, and OBP. While it's upsetting that Morneau is only 4th right now, this position is pretty stacked, as everyone on this list but Chris Davis (plus Carlos Pena and Russell Branyan) has a pretty solid argument for being the All-Star starter. Youkilis' numbers are very good (he, rather than Morneau, would lead the AL in OPS if he qualified), but he hasn't played that much yet. For those reasons, I think that, as of now, Morneau should be the #1 vote-getter.

2B: Aaron Hill
Actual Leaders: Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Hill, Robinson Cano, Brian Roberts.
This is essentially a toss-up between Hill and Kinsler. They are very similar in every category, except for batting average, OBP, and stolen bases. Hill's large edge in average and smaller edge in OBP convinced me to vote for him. Kinsler, though, is a perfectly reasonable choice and he sits first overall right now. Pedroia, Cano, and Roberts are not terrible choices, as they are having very nice years, but I think Kinsler and Hill are a step above them right now. All in all, the voting for AL second basemen seems to be the most reasonable.

SS: Jason Bartlett
Actual Leaders: Derek Jeter, Marco Scutaro, Elvis Andrus, Bartlett, Alexei Ramirez.
While he's not quite Joe Mauer, Bartlett has been otherworldly this year, making him the blowout winner for AL shortstop. He leads them in almost every statistical category, including hits, doubles, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases, average, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Incredibly, he leads by almost 200 points in OPS! Since I started this post, Bartlett has been placed on the DL. For now, I'll stick with him, but Scutaro is also doing very well, especially his 36:22 BB:K ratio. Of course, none of this really matters, as Derek Jeter is leading shortstop voting by many miles and will undeservedly start the All-Star game yet again.

3B: Evan Longoria
Actual Leaders: Longoria, Michael Young, Alex Rodriguez, Scott Rolen, Mike Lowell.
Bartlett's teammate Longoria takes my third base vote, though in a closer race. For now he has a relatively comfortable margin with me, but Alex Rodriguez may close that gap quickly. As of now, I've got Brandon Inge and Michael Young behind Longoria, with Inge beating Young due to Young's horrible defensive rating at third base.

C: Joe Mauer
Actual Leaders: Mauer, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, Jorge Posada, Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
The voters definitely have this one right. Mauer's April absence may have hurt him, but his scorching streak since his return has made that a moot point. There is no legitimate argument to be made against Mauer starting at catcher at this point. It's all just too bad for Victor Martinez, as he's having a very good year, and is a clear second after Mauer.

OF: Jason Bay, Adam Jones, Torii Hunter
Actual Leaders: Bay, Josh Hamilton, Ichiro Suzuki, Ken Griffey Jr., Nick Markakis, Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, Grady Sizemore, Jacoby Ellsbury, Hunter.
Bay is deserving of his place atop the AL outfield ranks, but Hamilton, Ichiro, and Griffey most certainly are not. Hamilton has an OPS of .791 and has only played in 30 games thus far, and Griffey is in the same camp, having only played in 35 games and sporting an OPS of just .729. In addition, Griffey's only actually played 23 innings in the outfield this season--if he can be on the ballot, why can't Jason Kubel (he's played 51 innings in left field)? Ichiro, meanwhile, ranks only 13th among AL outfielders in OPS (.814) and doesn't have a ton of steals to boost his profile (8). The biggest problem with the current balloting, though, is that Adam Jones, who is second in the AL in OPS, is not in the top 15. This guy completely merits an All-Star game start, yet he is receiving no support.


Well, there you have it. I'm hoping you consider these guys when you vote so that the All-Star game will actually be made up of All-Stars for once. And whatever you do, PLEASE do not vote for Derek Jeter!!

AL MVP

Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer finished 2nd and 4th respectively in the voting. I think most of us realized Morneau had lost his chance for MVP with his horrid stretch to end the season, and Mauer has never really gotten the respect from the writers for how well he plays such a tough position. All in all, a good showing from the Twins, but they were outshone by the Red Sox, who had Dustin Pedrioa win the award and Kevin Youkilis finish third.

And one more thing regarding the MVP award. How did Jason Bartlett receive a vote?! And not a tenth-place vote-- a fifth-place vote! That means one writer thought, out of all the players in the AL, Jason Bartlett was the fifth most valuable... ahead of all of the following save four: Pedroia, Youkilis, Morneau, Mauer, Carlos Quentin, Josh Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rodriguez, Jermaine Dye, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Raul Ibanez, Ichiro Suzuki, Derek Jeter, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Pena, Jim Thome, Michael Young, and Torii Hunter. What do all these players have in common? They all played more games, had more runs, home runs, and RBIs, and had higher on-base percentages and slugging percentages (and thus all had a higher OPS) than Jason Bartlett. Every single one of them was better in every single category, and most outdistanced him by a lot. And that list is certainly not all-inclusive. Then there are the players who aren't better in every above stat, but are obviously better choices, such as Milton Bradley (2 fewer games).

A few more notes: only the last five (Sizemore, Pena, Thome, Young, and Hunter) had lower batting averages. A good number of those players were on playoff teams, or on the cusp of the playoffs. And I didn't even consider any pitchers who were more deserving. And this writer must have also ignored his teammate Evan Longoria (he didn't get higher than a sixth-place vote), who clearly had a far superior season.

Oh, what's that? I seem to have excluded a name familiar to Twins fans that would fit the above description, and thus should be on the list: Delmon Young. That's right, Delmon Young. How many votes did he get for MVP?

____________________
(This post was not meant to disparage Jason Bartlett; he's a solid player in his own respect. But I would like to know why one writer gave him a fifth place vote for MVP. Perhaps the same one that left Dustin Pedroia off entirely?)

An Odd Little Game

Jon Lester may have pitched a no-hitter against the Royals tonight, but the Twins' game was also a very interesting one. A few strange things happened: Alexi Casilla hit a three-run home run, the Twins used their entire bench and every relief pitcher except Brian Bass, and Bobby Korecky got a hit.

One negative first, though. Gardenhire finally brings Joe Nathan in for the tenth inning in a non-save situation, which many of us have said he should be doing, but then he does not leave him in there for the eleventh. Nathan threw five (5!) pitches to get the three outs in the tenth inning, yet Ron Gardenhire would rather have Juan Rincon pitching? I don't understand this at all. And, not unpredictably, Rincon had to be yanked after loading the bases with only one out via a double and two walks.

That's where the next story comes. Bobby Korecky, a rookie, pitching in just his sixth major league game, slammed the door, getting two very key outs. To follow it up, he got a single in the bottom of the inning. He had to hit because the Twins had moved Brendan Harris from designated hitter to shortstop, and the Twins had no one left on their bench to pinch-hit. After a Harris single and a Joe Mauer walk, he was the winning run on third with Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer due up. Needless to say, he didn't score, but he did come back and pitch a perfect twelfth inning.

Now, this kind of game reminds me why I like Joe Mauer so much. In the bottom of the ninth, down 6-5, Mauer comes up with two on and one out. He hits a single and ties the game. In the bottom of the twelfth, with the game tied, he walks to move Korecky to third and Harris to second with only one out. What does Justin Morneau do right after Mauer? And Michael Cuddyer? They make the last two outs in both instances without getting a run across. On the night, they went a combined 0-10, stranding 14 Twins on the basepaths. At least Morneau got two walks; Cuddyer went 0-6 with 9 left on base.

Fortunately, an unlikely hero got the winning hit in the bottom of the twelfth inning. After Carlos Gomez singled and moved to second on a groundout and Mike Lamb was intentionally walked, Howie Clark connected for a double just past centerfielder Josh Hamilton. Gomez jogged home to win the game for the Twins.

What Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer could not do, Howie Clark did.

And seriously, WHY did Joe Nathan not pitch a second inning?! Can someone please tell me what Ron Gardenhire was thinking?

Twins Prevail in Extras

It took ten innings, but the Twins were able to win the series (and game) 2-1 over the Cleveland Indians. The win moved them into a tie with the Royals for second place in the division at 9-10. Looking at the standings, the division is basically upside-down right now when compared to the predictions most people made. Detroit: 6-13?! Cleveland: 7-12?! Chicago: 12-7?! Of course it's early, but it's remarkable how these teams are playing even just one-eighth of the way into the season.

In the 9th inning, after pinch-hitting Craig Monroe for Mike Lamb, Ron Gardenhire had an interesting decision to make: move Justin Morneau to first base from designated hitter, or move someone already in the field to first base (which ended up being Brian Buscher) and bring someone in to replace them. Normally, you would never want to move Morneau there, because it means the pitcher would have to hit, but who else could fill in at first base?

The options were few. Buscher played 7 games there with Rochester last year and one the year before with New Britain. Needless to say, that's not a lot of experience. Matt Tolbert has never played a professional inning there and Nick Punto has, surprisingly, never played a major league inning at first base (he's played LF, CF, RF, 3B, SS, and 2B). Brendan Harris has only played one inning there in his career and that was earlier this season. I guess you could throw Joe Mauer in as a choice, but he's never played first base either. Now, maybe I overestimate the difficulty in transferring to a different position for a Major League player, but the thought of having any of those guys playing first base in extra innings was very worrisome. And, Buscher, who Gardenhire did choose to play first, is a shaky defender at his own position who was playing in his first Major League game this season.

Of course, all this, all my second-guessing, and what happens? Justin Morneau comes up with men on first and third and two outs in the bottom of the tenth. Thank God that wasn't Matt Guerrier.

A few more game notes:

• Buscher doubled for his first hit of the year, while Mike Redmond also collected his first hit, a single in the ninth inning.
• Scott Baker had a fantastic outing, going seven innings and allowing one run, while getting eight Indians to strike out.
• Brendan Harris hit his first home run of the year. He is the third Twins player (and first right-handed one) to hit a home run this season. They're now within two of the Mets and A's who have had five players hit home runs. Pretty pathetic.
• The bullpen came through today, as Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, and Matt Guerrier combined to shut down the Indians for three innings. Neshek was aided by an amazing catch by Carlos Gomez in the ninth (or maybe Reyes was--it was his baserunner on second). It was really some catch.

Statistical Predictions

Well, guesses really. But doesn't it sound a lot more official when I call them predictions? Or maybe I should call them projections. Yeah, that really sounds official. So these will be my statistical projections for the Twins players in 2008. You'll probably disagree with some, perhaps all, but I'll have fun looking back in October to see just how dumb I was those six months ago. Without further ado...

Joe Mauer: .307/.394/.482, 18 HR, 89 RBI, 11 SB
Justin Morneau: .288/.360/.553, 36 HR, 122 RBI, 1 SB
Brendan Harris: .272/.349/.406, 11 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB
Adam Everett: .250/.331/.369, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 6 SB
Mike Lamb: .266/.340/.418, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB
Michael Cuddyer: .281/.351/.441, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 7 SB
Carlos Gomez: .248/.317/.379, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 25 SB
Delmon Young: .295/.332/.509, 27 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB
Jason Kubel: .314/.382/.534, 26 HR, 98 RBI, 3 SB

In reality, I thought of these as I typed them, and it took me no more than fifteen minutes. So, there was no research done, not much thought put into it, just gut feelings. And I'm sure that I have a huge bias because of my Twins fandom, but what's wrong with being optimistic?

As a side note, I may do projections for pitchers but it's a lot more up in the air, and I don't want to embarrass myself too much.

Positional Comparisons

There's no doubt it was a tumultuous offseason for Minnesota. Franchise players came and went, and when the dust settled what we had was a team that looked drastically different than the one the Twins had in 2007. But is it better or worse? I thought I'd take a look at the Twins [projected] roster and compare it to last year. Where did the Twins improve? And where did they lose out?

Catcher:
2007- Joe Mauer
2008- Joe Mauer
Well, there was no change here. Hopefully Mauer can bounce back from a relatively disappointing year and produce closer to his 2006 campaign, so I anticipate this position being a little better than last year.

First Base:
2007- Justin Morneau
2008- Justin Morneau
Again, the same player, but now with a new contract. Will Morneau, like Mauer, be able to return to his 2006 form? Will his new financial security have any effect on his play? Either way, I definitely think that he should improve over last year.

Second Base:
2007- Luis Castillo/Nick Punto/Alexi Casilla
2008- Brendan Harris
Harris is undoubtedly better offensively than the Twins' second basemen last year. Even with modest numbers he'll dwarf Punto's and Casilla's stats from 2007; as long as he's not the worst hitter in the league, this position will be better off. That being said, his defense is more questionable, but I think the significant offensive improvement will prove to be more important.

Third Base:
2007- Nick Punto/Luis Rodriguez/Brian Buscher
2008-Mike Lamb
A similar situation to second base, in which Lamb will in all likelihood be an improvement offensively, but potentially a liability defensively. Compared to the third basemen as a whole, Lamb will also be better than what the Twins had in 2008. It would be a little closer if we considered him versus just Buscher, rather than against Nick Putrid. Whoops, I meant Punto.

Shortstop:
2007- Jason Bartlett
2008- Adam Everett
After the blockbuster trade with the Rays, the Twins were left with a void at shortshop, which they shortly filled by signing ex-Astro Adam Everett. A defensive specialist, he is well below average offensively. That being said, his career OPS of .656 is comparable to the production the Twins got last year (Bartlett's stats were dragged down by Casilla's and Punto's time at shortstop). Hopefully, Everett hits around his career averages, which would allow us to overlook his offense for his defense.

Left Field:
2007- Jason Tyner/Jason Kubel/Rondell White
2008- Delmon Young
The biggest part of the aforementioned trade will take over left field duties for the Twins. This should no doubt be an improvement over last year. Even if Young repeats his performance from last year, he would be better than the combination that was trotted out there last year. White was abysmal again, Tyner was predictably underwhelming, and Kubel didn't play there enough to make the left field stats look good. Hopefully, however, Young will hit markedly better than last year.

Center Field:
2007- Torii Hunter
2008- Carlos Gomez/Jason Pridie/Denard Span??
This is the first position where there isn't a clear-cut frontrunner for the starting job in 2008. New acquisitions Gomez and Pridie, along with former first-round pick Denard Span, all have a chance to start on opening day. I don't know how likely Span is to start, as his minor league record doesn't indicate he's ready, but it seems like Gardenhire is high on him. No matter who it is, we can expect a significant downgrade from 2007. Even though there was basically a consensus that Hunter couldn't be re-signed, there should also be a consensus that none of these guys will come close to matching his production.

Right Field:
2007- Michael Cuddyer
2008- Michael Cuddyer
Only the third of the eight positions that will have the same starter as 2008. Cuddyer had a down year after a great 2006, and was given a new multi-year contract this off-season. Along with Mauer, Morneau, Young, and Kubel, he should combine to make a somewhat formidable middle of the lineup that will help make up for the likes of Adam Everett and probably Nick Punto, who Gardenhire will surely find a way to fit in the lineup.

Designated Hitter:
2007- Jason Tyner/Rondell White/Jason Kubel/myriad of others
2008- Jason Kubel
It's about time Jason Kubel gets a regular starting position, and there doesn't seem to be anyone in the way of him this time. Gardenhire has been known to do stranger things that start Craig Monroe at DH, though (for instance, starting Jason Tyner at DH). Kubel should be much better than what was used as an excuse for a DH last year, and I think he will make significant strides toward becoming a very good player.

Well, that wraps up my positional outlook for 2008. More season preview things to come over the next week and a half, including a divisional preview, statistical predictions (which will admittedly be essentially arbitrary guesses, but will certainly be interesting to look back on at the end of the year), and a comparison between the 2007 and 2008 pitchers.

More on the Press Conference

According to Morneau, the negotiations started about a week ago, after the arbitration deal was reached. Both Bill Smith and Justin Morneau repeatedly talked about the timing being right and how fast the deal was reached. Smith also continually mentioned the fact that Morneau and Michael Cuddyer both wanted to stay in Minnesota and that the organization wanted to keep them in Minnesota.

Asked if he was getting right field or centerfield money, Cuddyer said he didn't know but that Gardy "might have just been saying some stuff" regarding his crazy comments about Cuddyer playing center. It didn't really sound like he was too interested despite saying he was up for any challenge. When Bill Smith was asked about Johan Santana, he again pushed the position that they wished to keep him in the organization, but if that didn't work they would have to move forward.

Incidentally, Morneau's six-year deal (confirmed by Morneau) is the longest in team history. The exact figures are still unknown, but it seems to be in the range of $75-$80 million. Cuddyer's deal is for 3 years and approximately $23 million, with a club option for a fourth year.

I agree with Bill Smith, it's great to have these guys signed!

Morneau, Cuddyer Sign Multi-Year Extensions

According to multiple sources, the Twins have signed Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer long-term. A press conference has been announced for 5 PM eastern time, and you can watch it online at kare11.com. According to the TV station's sources, the deals go "deep into the new stadium." For me, this is the most exciting thing that has happened thus far this offseason, even including the Delmon Young and trade the now slightly-tiring Santana Watch. I can't wait to find out the exact length and terms of the deals, but right now I am very impressed with Mr. Smith.

Kubel, Morneau, Rincon Avoid Arbitration

UPDATE (1/18/07 6:19 PM): MLB.com has a nice table of figures submitted by teams and players for arbitration. Cuddyer wants $6.2M and the Twins want to pay $4.7M. Guerrier wants $1.15M, while the Twins only want to pay 750K.

UPDATE (1/18/07 3:02 PM): Juan Rincon signed a 1yr/$2.475M deal. As of now, Cuddyer and Guerrier are still headed to arbitration.

UPDATE (1/18/07 11:00 AM): The Twins signed Morneau to a 1yr/$7.4M deal. He made 4.5 million last year. The Twins did not sign Morneau to a long-term deal, which many of us were hoping that they would do. They could still open talks at any time, but the fact that there have not yet been any talks is not promising.

The Twins avoided arbitration with Jason Kubel by signing him to a 1 year deal worth 1.3 million dollars. This was Kubel's first year of being eligible for arbitration. Four other Twins (Justin Morneau, Matt Guerrier, Michael Cuddyer, and Juan Rincon) have filed for arbitration, but the Twins still could still reach agreements with them anytime before the hearings, which are from February 1st-21st. According to the article, GM Bill Smith has contacted all of their agents in an attempt to do so.

Also of note Thursday, Jose Mijares, a left-handed relief pitcher on the Twins' 40 man roster, broke his pitching elbow in a car crash. It's unclear how long exactly he'll be out for, but Joe C writes that it will be 4-6 months before he plays baseball again. Mijares spent 2007 in AA and was probably going to move up to AAA-Rochester for 2008.

Trade Rumors

The winter meetings start in less than a week, and there are already plenty of rumors surrounding the Twins and moves that they might make. I don't know about anyone else, but I find all this talk and discussion very exciting, even if they are only "internet rumors." In any case, talks of deals involving Johan Santana and anybody and young pitching to the Devil Rays seem to have the plenty of legitimacy, while there are other deals like Justin Morneau to the Angels that seem totally ridiculous. The removal of two players (pitchers Errol Simonitsch and Ricky Barrett) make it even more apparent that something is going to happen soon. By the way, Simonitsch and Barrett both cleared waivers and are safely on the Rochester roster. I know you were worried.

• To start, there has been plenty of discussions of Santana trades, but now it seems that the Twins have begun preliminary talks with teams, at least with the New York Yankees for sure. As much as I hate to say it, the Yankees would be the most logical landing place for Santana, with their basically unlimited payroll, collection of top prospects, and need for pitching. (As a side note, how amazing is it that the Yankees have spent about $400 million already this offseason, and they haven't even added any players? All they've done is resign their own players.) All the other supposedly interested teams that could possibly pay Santana have foreseeable problems in getting a deal done. The Angels and Dodgers have bigger needs for hitters than pitchers, especially with the Angels trading Orlando Cabrera last week. The Red Sox clearly do not want to part with Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury, and I don't think a deal centered around Jon Lester is enough. Also, more importantly, the Red Sox seem likely to stick to their word, as they did when they held strong and would not offer Mike Lowell a 4 year deal even after Philadelphia made such an offer. As is well known, the Yankees adamantly declared they would not negotiate with Alex Rodriguez after he opted out of his contract, and then they proceeded to sign him to a contract potentially worth over $300 million just a couple weeks later. Now, to get to the potential offers the Yankees could make. The Yankees have been saying all along that Joba Chamberlain is untouchable and now Robinson Cano appears to be in that same category, though the Yankees' adamant statements can be reversed quite quickly it seems. I certainly understand why everyone is so high on Joba, but I see Phil Hughes as at least an equal piece in a trade, and possibly better, simply because he has proven his stuff over a couple years in the minors instead of just one. If the Yankees are not going to offer Chamberlain, then Hughes is a great building block for the trade. I would want to see any trade with the Yankees centered around Hughes or Chamberlain, as Cano will be hitting arbitration this year, and I would rather see the Twins get a cheaper, younger player as the base of the trade. If the Twins could get Hughes/Chamberlain and Cano, then that would be a great deal, but I'm not too sure that that will happen. I know the Twins need offense way more than pitching, but they can trade some young pitching for young hitters, as a deal like this would give them an even bigger surplus of young pitching. I still think a deal to the Dodgers would work best for the Twins, but at this point I'm not sure how involved they'll get in the Santana trade talks.

• Joe Christensen, in an attempt to lessen the hopes of Twins fans like me, wrote up what he felt to be a more realistic trade market for Santana. Obviously, no one outside the teams making the offers knows exactly what the Twins could get for Johan, but if these are the deals that are out there, I would rather keep Santana and let him walk after 2008 if he can't be re-signed. Some people might say this would be the same as the Torii Hunter fiasco. Personally, I did not think the Twins should have traded Hunter, but even for people who did, this is totally different. In this case, if the Twins lost Santana for draft picks, it wouldn't be for a lack of trying; the Twins have been proactive in looking to either deal or re-sign him, and that is the key. With Torii, the Twins waited until the summer to make an offer for an extension, and seemingly never discussed trading him. In any case, I would rather have 1 year of Santana than get what Christensen suggests the Twins would get.

• More indications of talks with the Rays came out today, this time involving Boof Bonser moving to Tampa. I think that a trade of Boof for Rocco Baldelli would be a good deal, although I would feel bad losing a guy with such a great name. Then again, Rocco isn't so bad in itself. If the Twins don't trade Santana, which at this point would surprise me, or if they get another great young pitcher in return (like Hughes), then some of the Twins better young pitchers (like Matt Garza or Kevin Slowey) could possibly be used to get a player like BJ Upton.

• The rumors of a Morneau-to-the-Angels deal are ridiculous. The Twins should NOT trade him, not for anything. He is their only established power threat, and if they lose Hunter, Santana, and Morneau in the offseason, they might as well change the team name to the Minnesota Sideburns. Not to mention the proposed return on the deal, Casey Kotchman and Ervin Santana, is not even close to fair compensation. (As I typed this, I went to look for the link where I found this, but the thread was deleted. So maybe it was totally made up.)

• And, if you've had enough of all this trade talk, check out the latest rumor, this one started by Bob Sansevere over at the Pioneer Press. Just think: this guy gets paid to write about the Twins, while I'm sitting here at 2:2o AM with an 8:50 class in the morning tomorrow, none of my homework started yet, and getting nothing for it.

Finally, was anyone else hoping for a scoreless tie in the Dolphins-Steelers game, or at the very least a 2-0 overtime victory for one of the teams? I guess now the only amazing thing I can hope for is an 0-14 Dolphins team beating a 14-0 Patriots team in Week 16.