[Edit, 11:42 AM 8/18/09: The Twins managed to sign first-round choice Kyle Gibson for $1.85 million just before the deadline last night. This means they signed each of their top 10 picks. Gibson won't pitch this year, but it's very exciting to see a guy with his upside in the Twins system.
Oh, and Francisco Liriano went the Glen Perkins route, ending up on the disabled list after the horrible start. I'm assuming it's a bruised ego and lack of confidence that's really put him there more than any physical problem, and I have no issue with the Twins taking that path. Liriano just hasn't been right all year.]
The Twins take an early lead. The starting pitcher (this time Francisco Liriano) gives it all back and more in a hurry. The offense scores a solid number of runs (in this case 5) but can't come through in big spots (2-11 with runners in scoring position). Joe Mauer tries to win the game all by himself, and raises his average to .380 and his OPS to 1.083 in the process. He even decides, what the heck, those pitchers really aren't getting anyone out--I'm gonna have to start stealing bases.
And it's just so tough to watch his season go to waste. Even if they don't have a shot at the postseason, finishing around .500 would at least give him a better chance to win the MVP. And, if he wins that, I'd never consider his season wasted.
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
A draft and an unnecessarily close game
Yesterday was the first day of the MLB first-year player draft, and the Twins selected college pitchers with each of their four picks: righthander Kyle Gibson, lefty Matt Bashore, and righties Billy Bullock and Ben Tootle. Gibson, Bashore, and Tootle were starters in college, while Bullock was the closer for the University of Florida. Tootle, though, may end up a reliever at some point along with him, though Gibson and Bashore definitely project as starters.
I won't go any further into it because I honestly don't know much about them, so I'll direct you to Aaron Gleeman and Nick's Twins Blog for some good analysis of the picks.
In the meantime, the Twins were playing the Oakland Athletics, and were walloping them 10-0 through 8 1/2 innings. Then the bottom of the ninth rolled around, and Ron Gardenhire reasonably left Scott Baker in to go for the shutout. Baker was cruising, having thrown fewer than 100 pitches at the start of the inning, and the Twins had a seemingly comfortable 10-0 lead. It was disappointing that Baker wound up giving up 3 runs as his overall line did not end up looking so spectactular; through 8 innings, he had struck out 8 and surrendered just 2 hits. I know I'm too focused on stats, but his ERA would look a lot prettier if he'd pitched better in the last inning, or if the relievers had done any relieving at all.
With the bases loaded and no one out, Jesse Crain and then Jose Mijares came in to attempt to finish the game. Combined, they issued 3 walks and gave up one hit while only getting one out. Alexi Casilla didn't help them out by making an error, but they both really struggled last night and have been struggling recently. Mijares still has a nice ERA, but if he keeps pitching this way, that will eventually catch up to him too. Since May 15, Mijares has walked eight batters and given up nine hits in nine innings (11 games), while accumulating only 4 strikeouts--yet he's been charged with two earned runs in that span.
Of course, when the potential tying run stepped into the on-deck circle, the Twins called Joe Nathan into the game, and he promptly struck out two batters on 7 pitches, all of which were strikes. It's nice to have that insurance sitting in the bullpen.
I won't go any further into it because I honestly don't know much about them, so I'll direct you to Aaron Gleeman and Nick's Twins Blog for some good analysis of the picks.
In the meantime, the Twins were playing the Oakland Athletics, and were walloping them 10-0 through 8 1/2 innings. Then the bottom of the ninth rolled around, and Ron Gardenhire reasonably left Scott Baker in to go for the shutout. Baker was cruising, having thrown fewer than 100 pitches at the start of the inning, and the Twins had a seemingly comfortable 10-0 lead. It was disappointing that Baker wound up giving up 3 runs as his overall line did not end up looking so spectactular; through 8 innings, he had struck out 8 and surrendered just 2 hits. I know I'm too focused on stats, but his ERA would look a lot prettier if he'd pitched better in the last inning, or if the relievers had done any relieving at all.
With the bases loaded and no one out, Jesse Crain and then Jose Mijares came in to attempt to finish the game. Combined, they issued 3 walks and gave up one hit while only getting one out. Alexi Casilla didn't help them out by making an error, but they both really struggled last night and have been struggling recently. Mijares still has a nice ERA, but if he keeps pitching this way, that will eventually catch up to him too. Since May 15, Mijares has walked eight batters and given up nine hits in nine innings (11 games), while accumulating only 4 strikeouts--yet he's been charged with two earned runs in that span.
Of course, when the potential tying run stepped into the on-deck circle, the Twins called Joe Nathan into the game, and he promptly struck out two batters on 7 pitches, all of which were strikes. It's nice to have that insurance sitting in the bullpen.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Draft tidbits
Just wanted to share three things while scrolling around Baseball-Reference's awesome draft coverage.
==>One player has actually been drafted #1 overall twice, in 1971 and 1975. The White Sox drafted Danny Goodwin out of high school, but he went to college and was later selected first again by the Angels.
==>Among #1 overall picks, high school hitters have fared much better than college hitters. 20 of the 30 different hitters drafted (Goodwin was drafted twice) were picked out of high school, and the top 7 career OPSes of #1 picks belong to high schoolers (Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, and Darryl Strawberry). On the other hand, no college draftee save Goodwin has failed to play 700 career MLB games, and only one other hasn't hit 1000 (Dave Roberts--not the one you're thinking of--709). Meanwhile, 2 high school hitters never reached the majors and 3 others didn't reach 500 career games. That excludes current players (Tim Beckham, Justin Upton, Delmon Young, etc.), of course, and Goodwin.
==>The opposite has been true for pitchers selected #1 overall, as only 2 high school pitchers have ever been picked in that position. One (Brien Taylor) didn't even get a cup of coffee and the other (David Clyde) threw just 416.1 innings in 84 games over 5 seasons. Every college pitcher appeared in at least twice that many games, except for 3 current players (David Price, Luke Hochevar, and Bryan Bullington).
==>Actually, Brien Taylor's story was sort of interesting. He was pretty awesome in high-A ball in his opening season (1992), striking out 187 versus 66 walks in 161 innings, while only allowing 121 hits. The next year he moved up to AA and was still decent, but control issues started to surface, as he walked 102 against 150 strikeouts in 163 innings. Then, he tore his labrum in a fist fight, and was never remotely the same. From the time he returned in 1995 to the end of his career he walked 184 batters in 111.1 innings! He struck out only 88 batters in that span. In one year, he walked 43 batters and struck out 11 in 16.1 innings! And he did all that in lower levels (Rookie and low-A) than he was pitching at before the injury.
==>Ten players have been drafted out of Cretin-Derham Hall HS (where Joe Mauer attended), and not so surprisingly, 5 have been selected by the Twins. Three other notable players have been selected from there, although none by Minnesota: Hall of Famer Paul Moliter was drafted by the Cardinals, Chris Schwab, the only other first-rounder for Cretin, was picked by the Nationals in 1993, and Chris Weinke was drafted by the Blue Jays. He would play six years in their minor league system, reaching AAA, before going to Florida State to play football where he would win the Heisman Trophy.
==>Arizona State University is the only college or high school to have multiple players drafted #1 overall, and they have had 3 alumni picked in the spot: Bob Horner, Floyd Bannister, and Rick Monday.
==>One player has actually been drafted #1 overall twice, in 1971 and 1975. The White Sox drafted Danny Goodwin out of high school, but he went to college and was later selected first again by the Angels.
==>Among #1 overall picks, high school hitters have fared much better than college hitters. 20 of the 30 different hitters drafted (Goodwin was drafted twice) were picked out of high school, and the top 7 career OPSes of #1 picks belong to high schoolers (Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, and Darryl Strawberry). On the other hand, no college draftee save Goodwin has failed to play 700 career MLB games, and only one other hasn't hit 1000 (Dave Roberts--not the one you're thinking of--709). Meanwhile, 2 high school hitters never reached the majors and 3 others didn't reach 500 career games. That excludes current players (Tim Beckham, Justin Upton, Delmon Young, etc.), of course, and Goodwin.
==>The opposite has been true for pitchers selected #1 overall, as only 2 high school pitchers have ever been picked in that position. One (Brien Taylor) didn't even get a cup of coffee and the other (David Clyde) threw just 416.1 innings in 84 games over 5 seasons. Every college pitcher appeared in at least twice that many games, except for 3 current players (David Price, Luke Hochevar, and Bryan Bullington).
==>Actually, Brien Taylor's story was sort of interesting. He was pretty awesome in high-A ball in his opening season (1992), striking out 187 versus 66 walks in 161 innings, while only allowing 121 hits. The next year he moved up to AA and was still decent, but control issues started to surface, as he walked 102 against 150 strikeouts in 163 innings. Then, he tore his labrum in a fist fight, and was never remotely the same. From the time he returned in 1995 to the end of his career he walked 184 batters in 111.1 innings! He struck out only 88 batters in that span. In one year, he walked 43 batters and struck out 11 in 16.1 innings! And he did all that in lower levels (Rookie and low-A) than he was pitching at before the injury.
==>Ten players have been drafted out of Cretin-Derham Hall HS (where Joe Mauer attended), and not so surprisingly, 5 have been selected by the Twins. Three other notable players have been selected from there, although none by Minnesota: Hall of Famer Paul Moliter was drafted by the Cardinals, Chris Schwab, the only other first-rounder for Cretin, was picked by the Nationals in 1993, and Chris Weinke was drafted by the Blue Jays. He would play six years in their minor league system, reaching AAA, before going to Florida State to play football where he would win the Heisman Trophy.
==>Arizona State University is the only college or high school to have multiple players drafted #1 overall, and they have had 3 alumni picked in the spot: Bob Horner, Floyd Bannister, and Rick Monday.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Draft Preview
Tomorrow is day one of the 2008 MLB draft, and this is an important one for the Twins, who hold picks #14, #27, and #31 after the departure of Type A free agent Torii Hunter. I've never paid any attention to the draft in the past, but this year I'm really excited to follow the action starting tomorrow at 2 PM on ESPN2. Before the draft takes place though, I'm going to go over some of the players who have been linked to the Twins (or who I think should be linked to them at least). There's a good article in the Star Tribune today about the Twins' draft options here, and the quotes about the players come from this article.
Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia (Jr.)
I'll start off with this: I know that there's no chance of Beckham falling to #14, but I just wish there were. He started every game and led the SEC champion Bulldogs by hitting .397/.505/.781 with 24 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and only 29 strikeouts. Beckham was a first team All-American, the SEC Player of the Year, and is one of five finalists for the Golden Spikes Award, given to the top US amateur. All in all, he's an established college player who could be playing for the Twins in a couple of years and he projects to be able to stay at shortstop, which is a very weak position in the organization. It's too bad that those are the same reasons that he'll be gone by the time the Twins make their first pick of the day.
Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky (Jr.)
Unlike Beckham, most mock drafts actually have Friedrich being available at pick 14, and I haven't seen any that put him in the top 10. Friedrich is the best college lefty in the draft, and he absolutely dominated the Ohio Valley Conference for his sub-.500 team, as a potential top 15 pick should. He started 10 games and allowed only 32 hits (including just one home run) in 65.2 innings, which works out to a miniscule .142 BAA. He also struck out 86 batters and walked only 24 with a 1.78 ERA. All in all, if the Twins liked Friedrich here, I would be happy with the pick, but I'd rather see them go for a top college hitter if one is available at this spot. According to Neal's article, the Twins "like" Friedrich (really candid, I know), and he is a definite possibility at #14.
Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Arizona State (Jr.)
Another Golden Spikes Award finalist, Wallace led the Sun Devils to a 48-11 record and a spot in the NCAA Super Regionals this week. Wallace has a good shot at being around when the Twins pick, although there are a few teams in front of the Twins who could also take him, especially the Athletics at #12. At first, I thought Wallace would be the best reasonable pick (reasonable=excluding guys like Beckham) for the Twins, but since then I've read that his 6-1, 245 pound body will force him to leave his college position of third base for first base. I don't really buy into the whole body-type-forcing-a-guy-to-change-positions thing, but scouts still think he won't be able to play first in the majors, which significantly alters his value. Nonetheless, the the 2-time Pac-10 Player of the Year and 2-time Pac-10 triple crown winner would still be a great pick for the Twins, a polished college slugger with great plate discipline. He has hit .414/.531/.762 with 21 homers and 16 stolen bases for the Sun Devils so far in 2008. Wallace does not seem like a typical Twins' pick, and I haven't seen any substantive rumors about him going to the Twins, so this probably won't happen.
Jemile Weeks, 2B, University of Miami (Jr.)
Weeks, the brother of the Brewers' Rickie Weeks, is projected to go in the first round, though I've seen varying reports on where exactly. The Twins "really like" Weeks, though the article mentions him being taken at 27 or 31, not #14. He's only 5-9 and does not have nearly the power of many of the college sluggers, but plays a more valuable defensive position. Nonetheless I don't think the Twins should take him at 14 either, and there's a pretty good chance he'll be taken by a team like the Mets before pick #27. Weeks has paced the ACC Champion and #1 ranked Hurricanes with 19 stolen bases while hitting .366/.447/.639 this season.
Reese Havens, SS/3B, University of South Carolina (Jr.)
I haven't really heard Havens' name linked to the Twins, but I think he could be a good pick for them. Most projections have him going #29 to the Red Sox, and like Wallace, a lot of value rides on his position. If he can stay at shortstop, he'd be much more valuable than if he has to move over to the more offensive-oriented third base position. Of course, Havens is no slouch on offense either; he hit .359/.486/.645 for the Gamecocks this season. I think Havens would be a nice pick for the Twins at #27 and a great pick at 31, especially if he can stay at short, though most reports I've seen have him eventually needing to move to third.
Aaron Hicks, RHP/OF, Woodrow Wilson HS (CA)
Hicks is your typical high-upside, toolsy high schooler, similar to former Twins' former 2nd round pick Joe Benson. These types of guys tend to be very hit or miss, in the sense of whether they ever put the tools together to become a baseball player in addition to an amazing athlete. Equal numbers of mocks have had him as a pitcher and an outfielder, though Hicks himself has stated a preference to hit. I'm assuming that the Twins would draft him as a hitter, but I obviously don't really know. It's hard to be disappointed when your team picks a guy as athletic as Hicks, and if the Twins do pick him I'm sure I'll be excited about him. However, while being rational and unbiased before the draft, I'd prefer it if the Twins chose someone more polished and less risky (namely a college player). The Twins are "impressed with" Hicks, but he might be gone by pick 14, as he's been linked to multiple teams including the Rangers and (surprisingly) the A's.
Brett Lawrie, 3B/C, Brookswood HS (Canada)
Lawrie is a guy who has been absolutely rocketing up draft lists, moving from unheard of to now possibly going #7 to the Reds. He's considered by scouts to be one of the most polished high school hitters in recent memory. If he doesn't go to the Reds at #7, he has a good chance of falling to the Twins, and, being a guy that they "really like," the Canadian could easily be their choice. For the same reasons I mentioned above, I'd rather have the Twins take a more proven hitter, but the scouts' talk of Lawrie is very encouraging.
Here is my (reasonable) wish list of what I'd like the Twins to do:
14- Brett Wallace
27- Jemile Weeks
31- Reese Havens
These are my predictions of what the Twins will actually do today (yes, they'll all be wrong I'm sure):
14- Brett Lawrie
27- Jemile Weeks
31- Brett DeVall (he's a high school pitcher, and no, I didn't feel like writing about any more guys)
Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia (Jr.)
I'll start off with this: I know that there's no chance of Beckham falling to #14, but I just wish there were. He started every game and led the SEC champion Bulldogs by hitting .397/.505/.781 with 24 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and only 29 strikeouts. Beckham was a first team All-American, the SEC Player of the Year, and is one of five finalists for the Golden Spikes Award, given to the top US amateur. All in all, he's an established college player who could be playing for the Twins in a couple of years and he projects to be able to stay at shortstop, which is a very weak position in the organization. It's too bad that those are the same reasons that he'll be gone by the time the Twins make their first pick of the day.
Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky (Jr.)
Unlike Beckham, most mock drafts actually have Friedrich being available at pick 14, and I haven't seen any that put him in the top 10. Friedrich is the best college lefty in the draft, and he absolutely dominated the Ohio Valley Conference for his sub-.500 team, as a potential top 15 pick should. He started 10 games and allowed only 32 hits (including just one home run) in 65.2 innings, which works out to a miniscule .142 BAA. He also struck out 86 batters and walked only 24 with a 1.78 ERA. All in all, if the Twins liked Friedrich here, I would be happy with the pick, but I'd rather see them go for a top college hitter if one is available at this spot. According to Neal's article, the Twins "like" Friedrich (really candid, I know), and he is a definite possibility at #14.
Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Arizona State (Jr.)
Another Golden Spikes Award finalist, Wallace led the Sun Devils to a 48-11 record and a spot in the NCAA Super Regionals this week. Wallace has a good shot at being around when the Twins pick, although there are a few teams in front of the Twins who could also take him, especially the Athletics at #12. At first, I thought Wallace would be the best reasonable pick (reasonable=excluding guys like Beckham) for the Twins, but since then I've read that his 6-1, 245 pound body will force him to leave his college position of third base for first base. I don't really buy into the whole body-type-forcing-a-guy-to-change-positions thing, but scouts still think he won't be able to play first in the majors, which significantly alters his value. Nonetheless, the the 2-time Pac-10 Player of the Year and 2-time Pac-10 triple crown winner would still be a great pick for the Twins, a polished college slugger with great plate discipline. He has hit .414/.531/.762 with 21 homers and 16 stolen bases for the Sun Devils so far in 2008. Wallace does not seem like a typical Twins' pick, and I haven't seen any substantive rumors about him going to the Twins, so this probably won't happen.
Jemile Weeks, 2B, University of Miami (Jr.)
Weeks, the brother of the Brewers' Rickie Weeks, is projected to go in the first round, though I've seen varying reports on where exactly. The Twins "really like" Weeks, though the article mentions him being taken at 27 or 31, not #14. He's only 5-9 and does not have nearly the power of many of the college sluggers, but plays a more valuable defensive position. Nonetheless I don't think the Twins should take him at 14 either, and there's a pretty good chance he'll be taken by a team like the Mets before pick #27. Weeks has paced the ACC Champion and #1 ranked Hurricanes with 19 stolen bases while hitting .366/.447/.639 this season.
Reese Havens, SS/3B, University of South Carolina (Jr.)
I haven't really heard Havens' name linked to the Twins, but I think he could be a good pick for them. Most projections have him going #29 to the Red Sox, and like Wallace, a lot of value rides on his position. If he can stay at shortstop, he'd be much more valuable than if he has to move over to the more offensive-oriented third base position. Of course, Havens is no slouch on offense either; he hit .359/.486/.645 for the Gamecocks this season. I think Havens would be a nice pick for the Twins at #27 and a great pick at 31, especially if he can stay at short, though most reports I've seen have him eventually needing to move to third.
Aaron Hicks, RHP/OF, Woodrow Wilson HS (CA)
Hicks is your typical high-upside, toolsy high schooler, similar to former Twins' former 2nd round pick Joe Benson. These types of guys tend to be very hit or miss, in the sense of whether they ever put the tools together to become a baseball player in addition to an amazing athlete. Equal numbers of mocks have had him as a pitcher and an outfielder, though Hicks himself has stated a preference to hit. I'm assuming that the Twins would draft him as a hitter, but I obviously don't really know. It's hard to be disappointed when your team picks a guy as athletic as Hicks, and if the Twins do pick him I'm sure I'll be excited about him. However, while being rational and unbiased before the draft, I'd prefer it if the Twins chose someone more polished and less risky (namely a college player). The Twins are "impressed with" Hicks, but he might be gone by pick 14, as he's been linked to multiple teams including the Rangers and (surprisingly) the A's.
Brett Lawrie, 3B/C, Brookswood HS (Canada)
Lawrie is a guy who has been absolutely rocketing up draft lists, moving from unheard of to now possibly going #7 to the Reds. He's considered by scouts to be one of the most polished high school hitters in recent memory. If he doesn't go to the Reds at #7, he has a good chance of falling to the Twins, and, being a guy that they "really like," the Canadian could easily be their choice. For the same reasons I mentioned above, I'd rather have the Twins take a more proven hitter, but the scouts' talk of Lawrie is very encouraging.
Here is my (reasonable) wish list of what I'd like the Twins to do:
14- Brett Wallace
27- Jemile Weeks
31- Reese Havens
These are my predictions of what the Twins will actually do today (yes, they'll all be wrong I'm sure):
14- Brett Lawrie
27- Jemile Weeks
31- Brett DeVall (he's a high school pitcher, and no, I didn't feel like writing about any more guys)
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