How Sweet It Is

Rumor has it that Livan Hernandez will be designated for assignment very soon, with Francisco Liriano taking his place in the starting rotation. I think most Twins fans, myself certainly included, are going to be very excited for his return (hopefully this time for good). Dumping dead weight for a lights-out pitcher can only be a good thing. Okay, I should probably calm down--Liriano is not going to be that good, I have to accept that. When I write about Liriano, though, you should keep in mind that I said at the beginning of the year "I've tempered my expectations for Liriano" and still concluded he would end the year with this stat line: 3.41 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 196 K/47 BB.

And Livan was not a complete waste. Yes, he was totally overpaid. Yes, there were certainly cheaper options who could have pitched better. And yes, at this point, he needs to go. But he pitched well in the beginning of the year, he did fill a rotation spot, as none of the Rochester starters really seemed ready (until now), and, who knows, maybe he did provide a "veteran influence", whatever that may be. When I say he needs to go, though, I don't necessarily mean off the team. Ideally, it would be Brian Bass who would be released right now. He hasn't pitched much better than Livan and has done it in a much less important role. In addition, as excited as I am for Liriano's return, what if something happens? Didn't some of us think he'd be back for good last time? As good as he's been at Rochester, who knows how he'll respond to the big leagues again? It'd be nice to have the insurance of Livan rather than Bass. And it's not just in case Liriano struggles; Hernandez, I think, is a better option as a spot starter than Bass.

But really I'm splitting hairs. It's really very incredibly superbly exciting that Liriano is coming back, this time after actually having shown a lot of improvement (and dominance) that indicates he may actually do well at the big league level. Mark the date, clear your plans, and glue yourself to your television (or computer in my case): Francisco Liriano is pitching for the Twins again!

What Twins Fans are Saying

I was reading Nick & Nick's blog entry today when I decided to check out the comments section. What I found were many ideas being bounced around that just seemed to be so ludicrous I had to post about them here.

The first one was this: why Livan Hernandez's innings pitched total affect the numbers of runs he gives up.

Why would getting batters out lead to him giving up more runs?
Any pitcher will give up more runs as he gets more batters out aka pitches more innings. It's just common sense. If his ERA is 5.31, on average he'll give up 5.31 runs per nine innings (or per 27 batters he gets out). There's no conceivable reason that this will suddenly improve, which means he will most likely continue pitching many innings while allowing many more runs than most pitchers would in those innings.

This one was the worst, by far. Someone argues that Livan's agent would have a legitimate grievance if the Twins demoted Livan to the bullpen because he has escalator clauses based on the number of innings he pitches.

Now there would be a legitimate grievance by his agent, who I believe is also Liriano's agent.
If Hernandez was good, maybe. But he hasn't been good at all. Out of 46 pitchers in the AL who qualify for the ERA title, he ranks 42nd in ERA, 45th in WHIP, 44th in OppOBP, 45th in K/9, and dead last in OppAVG, OppSLG, and H/9. Now how would his agent argue that the Twins are demoting him solely to avoid paying him bonuses and not because of his performance, especially when they are trying to find room for someone currently dominating AAA who dominated the Majors two years ago? Asserting that would be completely ridiculous.

A discussion about Livan's value as a reliever versus as a starter was also taking place.

The last time I looked, mop-up pitchers don't pitch complete games.
Yes, but an eight inning complete game in which you allow 5 ER on 12 hits and 3 walks is not a good outing. His ERA for that game was 5.63 and his WHIP was 1.88. So yes, I want him in the bullpen pitching in a mop-up role because his "value" of going deep into games is not valuable if he's going deep into games and pitching poorly. If he's in a mop-up role he'll be pitching less (a good thing because he's not a good pitcher) and be pitching mostly in games that are already out of reach (also a good thing).

Livan is still Livan

Yesterday, over at aarongleeman.com, I read an interesting entry about Livan Hernandez. A very informative piece, it detailed what Hernandez was doing in his first three starts and how it translated into his improved performance. Unfortunately, it also described why his success was unlikely to continue.

And he couldn't have been any more correct. Gleeman cited Hernandez's one walk in twenty-one innings and the fact that he hasn't given up any home runs, along with his 50 percent ground balls so far this year (as opposed to 38 percent last year). In yesterday's game, Hernandez walked three and allowed three home runs, producing a much worse line than in his previous three starts: 6 IP, 5 R, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K. Now, none of this is to say that Hernandez will be horrible (and yesterday's performance wasn't that bad either); just that there are clear reasons why he has been doing well early on, and just as clear reasons why he may very well struggle to continue doing those things.

As for the rest of the game, a few guys faced their former team for the first time. Delmon Young went 1-4 with a stolen base and scored the game winning run on Mike Lamb's sacrifice fly in the ninth. Brendan Harris went 2-4 with a run scored, while Jason Bartlett was 1-4 with a stolen base. Both Harris and Bartlett made errors which eventually allowed two unearned runs to score.

Joe Mauer had a fantastic game. He went 3-4 with two runs and an RBI, bringing his average up to .300. That shows what early season averages mean; just two days ago, I was worried about him because he was hitting in the .230's! He also made a big difference on the defensive end, throwing out two potential base stealers in the early going (although Bartlett did have a successful steal in the ninth). Compare Mauer with Rays' catcher Shawn Riggins, who allowed the Twins to go 3-3 in base stealing attempts. Carlos Gomez swiped two of those and Delmon Young had the other. In a one-run game, those extra bases--or extra outs--have a huge impact.

And, yet again, Joe Nathan came in to shut the door, making him five for five in save chances this year. After watching Todd Jones struggle and keep Tigers' fans on the edge of their seats, and seeing struggles from the Twins' bullpen recently, it was refreshing to be reminded of who's at the back of the bullpen and how reliable he is.

Opening Day!

Well, it's finally here! The Twins open the season in the Metrodome as the Angels come to town, bringing with them Torii Hunter. I'm rooting for Torii to do well regardless of what his attitude was about returning to the Twins; he was a good player for many seasons and I always found him fun to watch. That being said, I won't be rooting for him tomorrow. Hopefully Livan Hernandez can handle him and the rest of the Angels' line-up, as he takes on Jered Weaver in the starting pitching matchup. I don't have much confidence in Hernandez, but maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised.

In reality, I'm much more excited to see the re-tooled offense in its first game. Hopefully Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, and Jason Kubel can combine to provide a pretty formidable middle of the lineup. They'll definately need to for the Twins to have any chance of making the postseason this season. Truthfully, it's not very likely we'll be seeing the Twins in October, but who knows? If Francisco Liriano comes back strong, the new additions live up to their potential, and Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and the other young pitchers excel, don't the Twins sound like a pretty good team?

Of course, that case--the "if everything works out" case--could be made for practically any team. Clearly, the Indians and Tigers have very good teams and it will be very tough for the Twins to finish ahead of either of them. But I was surprised to see Sports Illustrated project Minnesota to finish last in the AL Central. They had them winning 72 games, finishing a game behind the Royals. Perhaps I am quite biased, but I think the Twins are definitely still a better team than the White Sox and Royals. I guess we'll see who's right as the summer months roll along.

I'll be anxiously awaiting the official line-ups to be posted, and of course for the game to start. In case any of you weren't aware, it will be televised nationally on ESPN2 at 7:05. That's great news for people like me, who aren't in the Minnesota area, and thus wouldn't be able to watch their opening game otherwise. Let's hope they start the season off with a bang!

More Predictions!

As if my last ones weren't bad enough, I'm coming back with my predictions for the Twins pitchers. I've tempered my expectations for Liriano, but still include him as one of the five starters.

Livan Hernandez: 11-15, 5.09, 1.51, 151 K/82 BB
Scott Baker: 12-12, 4.32, 1.29, 173 K/56 BB
Boof Bonser: 14-9, 4.11, 1.30, 189 K/69 BB
Kevin Slowey: 11-10, 4.47, 1.23, 160 K/43 BB
Francisco Liriano: 12-7, 3.41, 1.11, 196 K/47 BB
---------------------------------------------------
Joe Nathan: 2-3, 2.09, 0.97, 85 K/22 BB
Pat Neshek: 7-3, 2.95, 1.04, 91 K/24 BB
Matt Guerrier: 4-5, 3.55, 1.19, 67 K/31 BB
Dennys Reyes: 2-1, 4.18, 1.43, 37 K/20 BB

Twins Find Johan's Replacement

And it is..... Livan Hernandez, for one year and $5 million in base salary. Despite the Twins' recent habit of signing veteran starters, I was actually surprised by this signing since both Gardy and Rick Anderson had been quoted as saying that they weren't sure any one out there in free agency was better than who was already in the Twins' organization. I mean, if Gardy of all people feels he doesn't need a veteran at a position, then you've got to feel pretty comfortable with the kids. However, Bill Smith went out and got Livan, one of the best starters left in a now very weak market. I find myself not really having a reaction either way to this trade. My first thought was "oh great, here's the next Sidney Ponson," but this rotation is so young, and Livan is much better and more durable than the man who was once nicknamed the "beluga whale." Plus, there are always the parts of a trade that I find it very hard to measure. In this case, it is the veteran presence that Livan provides to this young rotation. I could try to analyze the importance of this, but I really wouldn't have any idea what I was talking about, since I've never been around anything resembling a major league clubhouse (though in Babe Ruth baseball I did a pretty good job filling the Nick Punto role- I was fast and a good defensive player, but couldn't hit the ball out of the infield or even lay a bunt down). The idea of a veteran presence in the rotation is also something that is almost impossible to study in statistical terms, so I can't even turn there for answers. In the end, the Twins operate on a 1-year budget, so any extra profit this year will most likely not be put into salaries next year or any other upcoming year. Therefore, I don't see that spending causing a problem in that sense, and the Twins are still saving plenty if they want to pay over slot in the draft (I know a lot of fans want them to do this with the extra money, but I really don't see them doing it in any situation). Livan could also become a valuable trade piece at the deadline or could be a Type B free agent after 2008 (like he was this year).

I've heard a lot of talk about how the Twins could have spent the money paid to Craig Monroe and Hernandez (could be almost 11 million total with incentives) to acquire one much better player. Even if you throw in Adam Everett and Mike Lamb, the total money paid to free agents still only comes to, at most, around 17 million dollars in 2008. Clearly, if the Twins hadn't signed these guys, they would have had plenty of money to pay Torii and Johan this year. However, only Lamb is being paid beyond 2008, so this money will be freed up after 2008, unlike with Torii (got 5 years) and Johan (6 years). The question never was whether those two should be paid that much and whether the Twins could pay them that much in 2008. It was always the number of years that would have to be committed to these guys, and it is just perplexing to me when this 1-year deal with Livan makes people say stuff like "we should have spent this money on big-name free agent or to re-sign Torii and/or Johan." A) Who was this big name free agent we should have signed/re-signed? Alex Rodriguez? That player has to both be available and want to come here. B) A big-name free agent signing costs a lot of years as well, which obviously makes it a much bigger overall money commitment if people look beyond just this one season. Unless you've got a great shot at a championship, you don't risk your future signing an older player like Torii to a long term deal.

On an unrelated note, does anyone care what Jose Canseco has to say? Does his word really mean anything? Though he may be right about much of what he's said, the way he's gone about it shows that he's really about the money. His most recent act of basically blackmailing Magglio Ordonez to help him out on his movie project discredits him even more, and I don't see how his word could somehow prove to anyone that Clemens is innocent.