Friday, August 19, 2011

Composite Prospect Rankings, #20-#11

Now we're getting to some exciting players, as we move to those prospects ranked from 20 to 11.

Click to enlarge
Note: Statistics current through August 17.

20. Pat Dean, LHP
--Kevin Goldstein (15): "A classic Twins-style strike-thrower, equipped with more command than stuff."
--b1, fan (28): "If Dean gets promoted quickly then next year [2011] he'll be ranked higher."
Dean opened the season on the disabled list and remained there until mid-May.  Upon returning, he was assigned to Low-A, one level above where he spent the 2011 season.  He continued to demonstrate precise control, walking 1.84 batter per 9 innings, and missed enough bats to be promising.  After making 8 starts there, and allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in 7 of them, Dean moved up to Ft. Myers.  He's had a much tougher go of it there, as his control, while still solid, hasn't made up for a big drop in strikeouts.  His 6.70 ERA makes it seem worse than it is, but he certainly hasn't been good in his 9 starts at High-A.
--Result: Slight downgrade

19. Eddie Rosario, OF
--John Sickels (16): "Sleeper outfielder from '10 draft, speed, on-base skills, some power potential."
--Aaron Gleeman (26): "He's a long way from the majors and may not even get his first crack at full-season competition until 2012."
The 19-year old has wound up in short-season ball again this year, playing for Elizabethton in the Appalachian League.  He's certainly built on his solid performance in the Gulf Coast League in 2010, though, hitting for average (.301) and power (.551 slugging).  He is striking out more, albeit not at a horrible rate, and isn't walking a whole lot, but the .250 ISO helps to overshadow that.  In all, Rosario's is hitting 40 % better than the league average, and has also been effective on the basepaths, stealing bases on 14 of 18 attempts.
--Result: Upgrade

18. Alex Burnett, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (18): "Capable of becoming a key component of the Twins' bullpen long term."
Outside of two insignificant stints with Rochester in April this year, Burnett has spent all his time in Minnesota. Unfortunately, he hasn't really built on his experience with the Twins in 2010.  His ERA, FIP, and xFIP aren't much better, if at all, than they were last year, and his peripheral statistics don't suggest much improvement either.  He could certainly still develop, but as of now it doesn't look like he will become a true late-inning option for the Twins.
--Result: Graduated (Downgrade)

17. Chris Parmelee, 1B
--Seth Stohs (12): "Cut down strikeouts and hit for average in 2010, but the power is still there."
--Aaron Gleeman (19): "As his contact and average increased Parmelee's power vanished... if Parmelee can't rediscover his power everything else will be a moot point."
Parmelee has repeated AA this year, but has vastly improved on his 2010 showing.  He continued to use the new approach he and the Twins developed last year, concentrating on striking out less and hitting for a higher average.  He did both of those things but also saw a rebound in his walk rate and power, which both rose back within the vicinity of what they were in past years, albeit in a more hitter-friendly environment.  He'll probably still need to take another step up with his power, but this was a good sign.
--Slight upgrade

16. Manuel Soliman, RHP
--Kevin Goldstein (14): "A converted infielder with arm strength and improving secondary stuff, he could move up after his full-season debut."
--Aaron Gleeman (21): "He's a long way from way from potentially entering the Twins' plans and still needs plenty of refinement."
Soliman's first time in full-season ball has had its positives and negatives.  He's not getting as many strikeouts, but still has a good amount with a rate of 8.31 K/9.  His walk rate, up to 3.51 BB/9, is also a concern, but it's not terrible.  The biggest problem is that he's surrendered 16 home runs in 118 innings, a rate of 1.22 per 9 innings.  It's hard to say whether that's bad luck or not without knowing his batted ball profile, but regardless it needs to come down.  If that happens, his numbers could look much better across the board.
--Result: No change

15. Billy Bullock, RHP
--John Sickels (8): "Could be a huge bullpen force if the command sharpens up a bit more."
--Seth Stohs (23): "The only concern is how quickly his walk rate has [risen] at each level the past two years."
Before the start of the 2011 season, Bullock was traded to the Braves so the Twins could keep Rule V pick Scott Diamond.
--Result: Traded

14. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
--Jonathan Mayo (9): "He's got a nasty hard sinker that generates a ton of groundballs."
--Aaron Gleeman (17): "He's been dominant at times and awful at others, but the overall performance is mediocre... Gutierrez's upside is based more on the praise for his "power sinker" than his actual performance."
For the last couple seasons, Gutierrez's statistics have not quite kept up with his prospect status.  In 2011 he was finally shifted to the bullpen full time after being jerked around between starter and reliever since he was drafted.  Probably not coincidentally, his strikeout rate has climbed to the highest it has been at any point in the minors, though at 7.26 K/9 it's still not particularly noteworthy.  Combined with giving up just one homer in over 50 innings, something that may not be far off from his true talent given his ground-balling tendencies, he's had a solid year at Rochester.
--Result: No change

13. David Bromberg, RHP
--Nick Nelson (6): "He lacks huge upside, but has a big curveball and profiles as a better version of Jeff Manship."
--Kevin Goldstein (17): "He's nearly big-league ready... but scouts see nothing special in him."
A broken arm early in the season has really set Bromberg back to this point.  In four starts at Double-A prior to the injury Bromberg had pitched solidly, perhaps readying himself to return to Triple-A, where he ended the 2010 season.  Instead he broke his arm and required surgery, and didn't return to the mound until July.  After a couple mediocre outings with the GCL Twins he was back in New Britain.  He's struggled since then, not lasting more than 4 innings in any of his four starts and not exhibiting his normally good control with 11 walks in 14.2 innings.
--Result: Downgrade

12. Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF
--Matt Hagen (8): "Young, high-upside position player... His bat is quick and he looks and carries himself like an athlete."
--Seth Stohs (17): "He's a five-tool talent... Long ways to go, but huge upside."
The 18-year old German has played at Elizabethton for all of 2011 after spending 2010 in the Gulf Coast League.  His performances have been pretty similar, though his average is down while his walks and strikeouts are up this year.  He's also played almost exclusively left field with the E-Twins after bouncing between all three outfield positions in 2010.  As he's still so young, he's got plenty of time to develop, making it tough to evaluate him solely on his statistics.
--Result: No change

11. Angel Morales, OF
--Seth Stohs (7): "Although the strikeouts are still high, his approach at the plate is terrific... No one questions his power potential."
--John Sickels (14): "Great tools, high strikeout rate, high risk/high reward guy."
On the disabled list following elbow surgery to start the year, Morales played in his first game of 2011 in mid-July.  After a brief rehab stint with the GCL Twins, Morales reported to High-A, where he spent the second half of 2011.  His strikeout rate continues to be very worrisome, but more importantly his power has dissipated significantly in his month with Ft. Myers.  Hopefully once he fully works back from the elbow injury it will return.
--Result: Slight downgrade

**Burnett was only ranked on one list, but I have to assume that was because the other list-makers determined he had exhausted his prospect eligibility.  For that reason, he's not downgraded for only being on one list.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Let us hear your thoughts!