Final Composite Rankings

For ease of reference, here are the final composite rankings of the 2011 Twins prospects, comprised of data from twelve different websites, both national and local.  For more information on the rankings, go here.

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For more information, check out the original sites where the rankings came from.  Here they are again:

Local

Aaron Gleeman, AaronGleeman.com (40 prospects)

Fan Vote (run by roger13), Twinkie Town (50)

La Velle E. Neal III, Minneapolis Star Tribune (10)

Nick Nelson, Nick's Twins Blog (10)

Seth Stohs, Seth Speaks (51)

National

John Manuel, Baseball America (10)

John Sickels, Minor League Ball (22)

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com (10)

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus (20)

Matt Hagen, The Hardball Times (10)

Reed MacPhail, FanGraphs (10)

Satchel Price, Beyond the Box Score (15)

Composite Top 10 Prospect Rankings

We've finally arrived at the best of the best--or at least what we thought were the best of the best at the beginning of the season.  A lot has changed since then so let's dig in and see where these prospects stand now.

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Note: Statistics current through August 17.

10. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, SS

--Aaron Gleeman (4): "He's unlikely to have much pop... His defense and base-running will be key."

--Seth Stohs (15): "He'd probably be higher if he weren't 26... I think he will be solid all-around."
I probably don't need to tell you how Nishioka's done.  His power is non-existent, he hasn't hit for average, he has no plate discipline to speak of, and he's looked lost in the field.  Add it all up and Nishioka has been 69 percent worse than the average major league hitter and has been worth -1.3 wins when compared to a replacement-level player.  He's still only 210 plate appearances into his American baseball career, so hopefully he can turn it around.
--Result: Graduated (Downgrade)

9. Adrian Salcedo, RHP

--Reed MacPhail (6): "The ability to miss bats, limit walks, and keep the ball on the ground is a great recipe for success, and at 6'4" 175, there is still projection remaining in Salcedo's frame."

--Mr. Smokum, fan (13): "Isn't it just as likely as not that Salcedo's career path follows Deolis Guerra's?"
Salcedo celebrated his 20th birthday shortly after the season started and has proceeded to put together a fine year at Low Single-A.  His control has once again been impeccable, as he's issued only 25 walks in 127.1 innings, but his strikeouts have dropped precipitously, going from 8.86 per 9 innings at the rookie level to 5.94 per 9 this season.  He's kept the ball in the ballpark and exhibited good enough control to still have a 3.04 ERA, which is almost equal to his 3.09 FIP.  He was moved to the bullpen very recently, presumably to limit his innings, and has been excellent in his minimal time there.
--Result: No change

8. Oswaldo Arcia, OF

--Jonathan Mayo (5): "He's got power to all fields, though he'll have to swing and miss less if he wants to keep putting up those kinds of numbers."

--Aaron Gleeman (12): "History is filled with hitting prospects who knocked around rookie-ball pitching only to flame out against tougher competition... his 67 strikeouts in 259 at bats are a potential red flag."
Arcia dominated at Beloit during the month of April in his first taste of full-season baseball.  In that small sample, he hit .352, walked a decent amount, and put up ridiculous power numbers with a .352 ISO.  At the end of the month, though, he got injured and was placed on the disabled list.  Despite the time off, Arcia was promoted to High Single-A upon being reinstated towards the end of July.  At that level, his production has really fallen off, with his plate discipline looking particularly bad.  His power has remained respectable, but not anywhere near where it was at Beloit in April or at Elizabethton in 2010.
Result: No change

7. Liam Hendriks, RHP

--John Sickels (5): "Another Twins guy with excellent command of solid stuff."

--Jonathan Mayo (10): "He's had some issues staying healthy, but when he's on he can throw four pitches for strikes."
Following a fantastic year split between two levels of A-ball, Hendriks moved up another level to Double-A.  Through 90 innings there, he once more both demonstrated enviable command and maintained his strikeout rate from High-A.  That resulted in Hendriks moving up to the highest level of the minors as a 22-year old, and he has held his own.  His unsightly 6.34 ERA, caused by a 48.9 LOB %, has hidden some good peripherals.  His strikeout rate is all the way down to 4.68/9 at Rochester, but his walk rate is back under 1 per 9 innings.  Those will both probably rise as he throws more innings at the level, but all in all his performance this year has been quite encouraging.
--Result: Upgrade

6. Joe Benson, OF

--La Velle E. Neal III (3): "He showed in spring training that he can cover some ground in the outfield and he has a strong arm."

--John Sickels (11): "Good progress with his power development, strikeout rate remains scary."
Despite a very good season at New Britain in 2010, the Twins sent Benson back to the same level for 2011.  In his second year at the level, he's done the same thing Chris Parmelee did in 2010, cutting down on his strikeouts--not by that much though--, raising his average, and sacrificing power as a result.  He's still had a very solid season, as a result of a higher on base percentage making up for much of the loss in power.  If he can maintain that, or find his power stroke again, he could be an option for the Twins quite soon.
--Result: Slight downgrade

5. Alex Wimmers, RHP

--John Sickels (2): "I think his stuff is underrated."

--Jonathan Mayo (8): "His changeup stands out as a plus pitch, he's got a decent curve, and his fastball has some life to it.  He's not quite Gibson, but he could follow a somewhat similar trajectory."
Wimmers' first appearance of the year was an unmitigated disaster, a start in which he walked all 6 batters he faced.  He went on the disabled list and finally resurfaced three months later with a rehab game with the GCL Twins, where he pitched 1 inning with just 1 walk.  After that he was back with Ft. Myers and established that he hadn't completely forgotten how to pitch, although he has still walked more than 4.5 batters per 9 innings.  He also just made his first start since returning, a decent 4 inning outing that he can hopefully build on.
--Result: Downgrade

4. Ben Revere, OF

--Nick Nelson (4): "The power might never come, but if he can keep getting on base at a solid clip while covering lots of ground in the outfield, he'll be a valuable big leaguer."

--Seth Stohs (8): "He can still improve his defense, throwing, and base running, things that will do him well over time."
Revere had not played in Triple-A before, despite a September call-up in 2010, so he reported there for the first time this Spring.  After showcasing the exact same skill set he has at every level--ability to hit for a high average, steal bases, and run down lots of balls in the outfield with a noodle arm--for the first month of the season, Revere got his second opportunity to play in Minnesota.  His average has been lower than expected, probably the result of a .279 BABIP, but otherwise he's performed similarly at the big league level, too.  He's going to need that number to rise to be a starting-caliber player, even in centerfield.
--Result: Graduated (No change)

3. Miguel Sano, 3B/SS

--Kevin Goldstein (1): "He has the bat speed and hands to hit for average, as well as the plus-plus raw power that combine to make him a potential middle-of-the-order force."

--La Velle E. Neal III (4): "He's got work to do with strike zone judgment and really doesn't know what a good curveball is like."
The negatives have shown up, as Sano has struck out in over 27 percent of his at bats, but the power is only getting better, and he allegedly only turned 18 this summer.  In 52 games at Elizabethton, he's hit 14 homers and put up a .320 ISO, both of which rank first in the Appalachian League.  Obviously he's not polished yet, but the raw power makes it very easy to get carried away with his potential.
--Result: Slight upgrade

2. Aaron Hicks, OF

--Satchel Paige (1): "It seems like some are becoming unfairly impatient with Hicks' development.  He's still an elite prospect with unreal upside, and he could be an impact player both in the field and at the plate."

--Matt Hagen (3): "[2010] was a solid season for Hicks, but everyone expects more from him, and for it to be coming at a level beyond Single-A."
After two full seasons at Low-A, Hicks joined the Ft. Myers Miracle for the 2011 season and has had his worst offensive season in the minor leagues.  His average, which is the main contributing factor, is all the way down to .236.  He's still showing impressive patience at the plate, with an excellent walk rate once again, and has posted moderate power numbers again this season.  Much of his promise is still based on his tools, as the skills he's demonstrated to this point in his professional career are solid but not worthy of the reviews he has gotten from scouts.
--Result: Downgrade

1. Kyle Gibson, RHP

--Seth Stohs (1): "A ground ball machine when he is on, Gibson has four big league caliber pitches and the confidence to use them at any time.  He is also a great competitor."

--Reed MacPhail (2): "With his struggles to miss bats on a consistent basis, Gibson strikes me as more of a solid starter than a front-of-the-rotation arm some are billing him as."
The composite top prospect in the Twins' system, Gibson was pushing to make an appearance with Minnesota this year before an elbow injury prematurely ended his season.  He struggled in his final three starts, possibly due to the injury, but before that he had struck out more than a batter an inning in 83.1 innings at Rochester.  He had also only issued 19 walks, giving him a fantastic K/BB ratio.  That made the news that he will likely require Tommy John surgery all the more disappointing, as that would force him out to miss the 2012 season.  Perhaps rehab will fix what ails them, but more likely than not Gibson will be out of action for all of next season.
--Result: Downgrade


Well, that's the end of my review of the top 40 prospects as determined by the rankings comprised of opinions from 12 different websites.  I hope you learned a lot about the players who make up Minnesota's future, because I certainly did.  And be sure to check out the opinions from the sites that provided the information, as they are all more knowledgeable about the prospects than I am.

**Same thing as Alex Burnett.  I assume that Nishioka was only included on 3 lists because the other authors either made their lists before he was signed or didn't consider him a prospect.  Thus he was not penalized for being absent from the other lists.

Composite Prospect Rankings, #20-#11

Now we're getting to some exciting players, as we move to those prospects ranked from 20 to 11.

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Note: Statistics current through August 17.

20. Pat Dean, LHP
--Kevin Goldstein (15): "A classic Twins-style strike-thrower, equipped with more command than stuff."
--b1, fan (28): "If Dean gets promoted quickly then next year [2011] he'll be ranked higher."
Dean opened the season on the disabled list and remained there until mid-May.  Upon returning, he was assigned to Low-A, one level above where he spent the 2011 season.  He continued to demonstrate precise control, walking 1.84 batter per 9 innings, and missed enough bats to be promising.  After making 8 starts there, and allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in 7 of them, Dean moved up to Ft. Myers.  He's had a much tougher go of it there, as his control, while still solid, hasn't made up for a big drop in strikeouts.  His 6.70 ERA makes it seem worse than it is, but he certainly hasn't been good in his 9 starts at High-A.
--Result: Slight downgrade

19. Eddie Rosario, OF
--John Sickels (16): "Sleeper outfielder from '10 draft, speed, on-base skills, some power potential."
--Aaron Gleeman (26): "He's a long way from the majors and may not even get his first crack at full-season competition until 2012."
The 19-year old has wound up in short-season ball again this year, playing for Elizabethton in the Appalachian League.  He's certainly built on his solid performance in the Gulf Coast League in 2010, though, hitting for average (.301) and power (.551 slugging).  He is striking out more, albeit not at a horrible rate, and isn't walking a whole lot, but the .250 ISO helps to overshadow that.  In all, Rosario's is hitting 40 % better than the league average, and has also been effective on the basepaths, stealing bases on 14 of 18 attempts.
--Result: Upgrade

18. Alex Burnett, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (18): "Capable of becoming a key component of the Twins' bullpen long term."
Outside of two insignificant stints with Rochester in April this year, Burnett has spent all his time in Minnesota. Unfortunately, he hasn't really built on his experience with the Twins in 2010.  His ERA, FIP, and xFIP aren't much better, if at all, than they were last year, and his peripheral statistics don't suggest much improvement either.  He could certainly still develop, but as of now it doesn't look like he will become a true late-inning option for the Twins.
--Result: Graduated (Downgrade)

17. Chris Parmelee, 1B
--Seth Stohs (12): "Cut down strikeouts and hit for average in 2010, but the power is still there."
--Aaron Gleeman (19): "As his contact and average increased Parmelee's power vanished... if Parmelee can't rediscover his power everything else will be a moot point."
Parmelee has repeated AA this year, but has vastly improved on his 2010 showing.  He continued to use the new approach he and the Twins developed last year, concentrating on striking out less and hitting for a higher average.  He did both of those things but also saw a rebound in his walk rate and power, which both rose back within the vicinity of what they were in past years, albeit in a more hitter-friendly environment.  He'll probably still need to take another step up with his power, but this was a good sign.
--Slight upgrade

16. Manuel Soliman, RHP
--Kevin Goldstein (14): "A converted infielder with arm strength and improving secondary stuff, he could move up after his full-season debut."
--Aaron Gleeman (21): "He's a long way from way from potentially entering the Twins' plans and still needs plenty of refinement."
Soliman's first time in full-season ball has had its positives and negatives.  He's not getting as many strikeouts, but still has a good amount with a rate of 8.31 K/9.  His walk rate, up to 3.51 BB/9, is also a concern, but it's not terrible.  The biggest problem is that he's surrendered 16 home runs in 118 innings, a rate of 1.22 per 9 innings.  It's hard to say whether that's bad luck or not without knowing his batted ball profile, but regardless it needs to come down.  If that happens, his numbers could look much better across the board.
--Result: No change

15. Billy Bullock, RHP
--John Sickels (8): "Could be a huge bullpen force if the command sharpens up a bit more."
--Seth Stohs (23): "The only concern is how quickly his walk rate has [risen] at each level the past two years."
Before the start of the 2011 season, Bullock was traded to the Braves so the Twins could keep Rule V pick Scott Diamond.
--Result: Traded

14. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
--Jonathan Mayo (9): "He's got a nasty hard sinker that generates a ton of groundballs."
--Aaron Gleeman (17): "He's been dominant at times and awful at others, but the overall performance is mediocre... Gutierrez's upside is based more on the praise for his "power sinker" than his actual performance."
For the last couple seasons, Gutierrez's statistics have not quite kept up with his prospect status.  In 2011 he was finally shifted to the bullpen full time after being jerked around between starter and reliever since he was drafted.  Probably not coincidentally, his strikeout rate has climbed to the highest it has been at any point in the minors, though at 7.26 K/9 it's still not particularly noteworthy.  Combined with giving up just one homer in over 50 innings, something that may not be far off from his true talent given his ground-balling tendencies, he's had a solid year at Rochester.
--Result: No change

13. David Bromberg, RHP
--Nick Nelson (6): "He lacks huge upside, but has a big curveball and profiles as a better version of Jeff Manship."
--Kevin Goldstein (17): "He's nearly big-league ready... but scouts see nothing special in him."
A broken arm early in the season has really set Bromberg back to this point.  In four starts at Double-A prior to the injury Bromberg had pitched solidly, perhaps readying himself to return to Triple-A, where he ended the 2010 season.  Instead he broke his arm and required surgery, and didn't return to the mound until July.  After a couple mediocre outings with the GCL Twins he was back in New Britain.  He's struggled since then, not lasting more than 4 innings in any of his four starts and not exhibiting his normally good control with 11 walks in 14.2 innings.
--Result: Downgrade

12. Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF
--Matt Hagen (8): "Young, high-upside position player... His bat is quick and he looks and carries himself like an athlete."
--Seth Stohs (17): "He's a five-tool talent... Long ways to go, but huge upside."
The 18-year old German has played at Elizabethton for all of 2011 after spending 2010 in the Gulf Coast League.  His performances have been pretty similar, though his average is down while his walks and strikeouts are up this year.  He's also played almost exclusively left field with the E-Twins after bouncing between all three outfield positions in 2010.  As he's still so young, he's got plenty of time to develop, making it tough to evaluate him solely on his statistics.
--Result: No change

11. Angel Morales, OF
--Seth Stohs (7): "Although the strikeouts are still high, his approach at the plate is terrific... No one questions his power potential."
--John Sickels (14): "Great tools, high strikeout rate, high risk/high reward guy."
On the disabled list following elbow surgery to start the year, Morales played in his first game of 2011 in mid-July.  After a brief rehab stint with the GCL Twins, Morales reported to High-A, where he spent the second half of 2011.  His strikeout rate continues to be very worrisome, but more importantly his power has dissipated significantly in his month with Ft. Myers.  Hopefully once he fully works back from the elbow injury it will return.
--Result: Slight downgrade


**Burnett was only ranked on one list, but I have to assume that was because the other list-makers determined he had exhausted his prospect eligibility.  For that reason, he's not downgraded for only being on one list.

Composite Prospect Rankings, #30-#21

I'll continue examining Minnesota's prospects, today delving into those ranked from 21 to 30.

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30. Anthony Slama, RHP
--roger13 (23): "One of minor league baseball's top relievers throughout his career."
--Seth Stohs (33.5): "Reliever with [a] tremendous K-rate...should be in the Twins bullpen throughout 2011."
Slama struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings and allowed opponents to hit .200 or under again at Triple-A. He's done that at every level in every year of his minor league career.  Ho hum.  He got just 2.1 innings with the Twins this year at the beginning of June, as he was relegated to overpowering minor league hitters again.  He even dropped his walk rate a little there, but no matter.  Now he's dealing with an elbow injury, but at least it looks like he will avoid Tommy John surgery.  Through no fault of his own he will fall on prospect lists as he is another year older.
--Result: Downgrade

29. Daniel Ortiz, OF
--Seth Stohs (19): "My choice for breakout hitter of the 2011 Twins minor league season."
--cmathewson, fan (36): "Skeptical about E-Town numbers, particularly power numbers."
A diminutive outfielder, Ortiz is getting his first shot at full-season competition this year.  His power numbers have not been quite as good, but he's still accumulated 30 doubles and 10 homers, resulting in a .167 ISO.  He's also showed improved plate discipline, upping his walk rate and cutting down on his strikeouts.  It adds up to a performance that has been slightly above average in the Midwest League.
--Result: No change

28. Kane Holbrooks, RHP
--John Sickels (19): "Overlooked... Looks like a sleeper to me."
--Aaron Gleeman (27): "To stick as a starter Holbrooks needs to develop his off speed offerings."
Holbrooks made 7 starts at Ft. Myers last year to end the season, and even started one game with New Britain, but he returned to Ft. Myers this season as a 24-year old.  His numbers have not been as good either,  as he has a pathetic strikeout rate of 4.48 batters per 9 innings, a full 3 K/9 lower than last year at the same level.  He was recently placed on the restricted list for reasons I don't know and hasn't pitched since July 17.
--Result: Downgrade

27. Bruce Pugh, RHP
--John Sickels (21): "Live arm, strikes people out, could surprise if his command sharpens up."
--DJL44, fan (34): "Has a live arm but a 4 ERA in Ft. Myers isn't impressive."
After starting at High-A last season and throwing over 100 innings there, Pugh began the season as a reliever at the same level.  With 27 strikeouts and 6 walks in 24.1 innings, Pugh continued striking out lots of hitters while also harnessing his control.  Upon being promoted to Double-A, though, he struggled mightily, imploding with 8 runs allowed in his first outing (1.1 IP).  In total, he surrendered 16 hits, 16 runs, and 15 walks in 16 innings.  He was then demoted back to Ft. Myers, where he's again been very good, striking out 28 against 7 walks in 19.1 IP.
--Result: Downgrade

26. Tom Stuifbergen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (20): "Raw stuff isn't overpowering, but Stuifbergen throws strikes, misses a fair number of bats, and induces grounders in bunches."
--Seth Stohs (30): "Will move up this list if he is healthy in 2010."
Stuifbergen has stayed healthy this season except for a very brief trip to the disabled list at the end of April, pitching 111 innings for Ft. Myers to this point.  He's given up a ton of hits in that time and has seen a precipitous drop in his strikeout rate, but at least has maintained his pinpoint control, walking only 1.46 hitters per 9 innings.  His ERA is a misleading 4.54, as his BABIP and LOB% indicate he is suffering from bad luck. Still, he's probably going to have to rediscover his strikeout rate to remain relevant.
--Result: Slight downgrade

24 (tie). Trevor Plouffe, SS
--Jon Kammerer, fan (21): "At least a utility guy with the potential to be an average regular if he can make more contact or increase his power."
--Aaron Gleeman (32): "It's pretty safe to conclude that Plouffe simply can't hit... A career as a utility man looks like his most realistic upside."
Plouffe got a cup of coffee with Minnesota in 2010, but found himself at Triple-A again in 2011.  All of a sudden, though, he started to hit.  In just 220 plate appearances, he had 15 home runs and 29 total extra base hits, good for a .323 ISO, which was nearly twice as high as in any previous season.  In addition, he began walking a little more and hit for a high average, something he had never done before.  Of course he is now 25 years old and has spent four seasons at AAA, casting some negative spin on his performance.  His audition in the big leagues has predictably been less impressive, and his defense will prove key to making him a useful player.
--Result: Graduated (Upgrade)

24 (tie). Deolis Guerra, RHP
--Seth Stohs (24): "Has a tremendous changeup and he's got great makeup.  2011 is a big year for him as it is his final option season."
--Aaron Gleeman (34): "Struggled to maintain peak velocity and and ceased being a ground-baller.  He's still young, but that's about all he has left in his favor."
At New Britain for the third consecutive season, Guerra once again failed to live up to his promise as a starting pitcher.  For the first two months of the season, Guerra floundered in the rotation, allowing 49 runs (43 earned) in 43 innings with a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  At that point the Twins shifted him to the bullpen, where's he's been very effective.  He's thrown 43 innings in that role, punching out 55 batters and 5 for every walk, and allowed only 16 runs (14 earned).  Somehow still just 22 years old, it's good to see Guerra finally pitching well in any capacity.
--Result: Upgrade

23. Niko Goodrum, IF/OF
--Kevin Goldstein (16): "A fantastic up-the-middle athlete... he was lost with the bat after signing."
--roger13 (30): "Tremendous athlete who struggled in his adjustment to professional baseball."
Despite hitting .161 with a .414 OPS in 36 games with the GCL Twins in 2010, Goodrum moved up to rookie-level Elizabethton this year.  He hasn't been as bad as last year (how could he be?), but his batting average is still just .239.  His strikeout rate is also high, at 24 %, and his ISO is an unimpressive .094.  If you're looking for positives I suppose they're that that offensive performance is only 13% below average in the Appalachian League and that he's 6-for-7 stealing bases.
--Result: Slight downgrade

22. Rene Tosoni, OF
--Aaron Gleeman (14): "Has consistently been above average at each stop without really flashing any standout skills... could be in line to replace Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer in 2012."
--Seth Stohs (32): "Solid all-around player.  If healthy, he will move up quickly."
In his first taste of Triple-A Tosoni has disappointed.  Just as he was consistently solid across the board at the other levels, he has been consistently below average in every category with Rochester.  He's walking less, showing less power, and hitting for a lower average.  Despite that, he's gotten a couple calls to the big leagues where he's almost exactly duplicated his AAA performance.  He still has a chance to make a case for a spot on the big league roster next season with a month and a half left in this season.
--Downgrade

21. B.J. Hermsen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (22): "He makes up for [a] lack of missed bats with pinpoint control and a fair number of ground balls."
--cmathewson, fan (27): "A marginal prospect in my book.  He never throws harder than 88 with little movement."
Hermsen spent most of the 2011 season at Beloit, essentially replicating his numbers from 2010.  In 124.2 innings, his FIP was exactly the same (3.76) while his K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 were very similar.  He was recently promoted to High-A Ft. Myers where he's made two starts.  The early returns were good, but it's much too soon to make any sort of judgment on his performance there.
--Slight upgrade


Check back tomorrow for the next installment!

*Slama is ranked 33.5 because Seth originally left him out altogether by accident.  Rather than move every player down one, he put Slama at 33.5

Composite Prospect Rankings, #40-#31

As I described yesterday, I'll be taking a look at the Twins' prospects' performance this year, and how it's affected their status from the beginning of the year.  Today I'll explore prospects 40 through 31.

The number in parentheses is where that person ranked the player.  Click the number for the link to the quote provided.  Keep in mind that all quotes were written at some point during the off-season.

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40. Steve Singleton, 2B
--Seth Stohs (27): "Good D at 2B... If needed today, he could perform well enough to not hurt the team at all."
--DJL44, fan (37): ".750 OPS at AA is nothing special.  If he was above .800 in AAA I could see him as a prospect."
Assigned to AA for a third season, Singleton did hit a little better, nearing the .800 mark in OPS.  Upon a promotion to Rochester, however, he struggled, getting on base under 30 percent of the time and hitting doubles at a much lower rate than in AA, signifying a loss of power too.  Because of those numbers, and some off-the-field issues, Singleton was released a month ago on July 17th.  He signed a minor league contract with Philadelphia.
--Result: Released

39. Danny Rams, C/1B
--roger13 (33): "Power-hitting catcher...took a big step forward last year when nearly half of his hits went for extra bases."
--Aaron Gleeman (37): "He really hasn't developed one bit.  He still swings at everything, still strikes out a ton, and still has people questioning whether he can remain a catcher long term."
After playing the last season-and-a-half with Beloit, Rams moved up to High-A Ft. Myers to start the 2011 season.  Once more, he's shown little ability to adjust his approach, as he has made only very modest improvement to his plate discipline.  His strikeout rate of 29 percent is down slightly from last year, while his walk rate is up slightly to over 8 percent.  These small gains are easily outweighed by the fact that his power has dropped off significantly, with his slugging down to .366 and his ISO down 75 points to .131.
--Result: Downgrade

38. Bobby Lanigan, RHP
--Seth Stohs (20): "Has a good fastball and all reports indicate he has a terrific slider.  To me, he could be a very successful reliever."
--cmathewson, fan (41): "The jury is out as to whether he can become a good reliever in the majors."
Lanigan returned to AA after making 8 starts there in 2010.  He's continued to start, throwing almost 130 innings over 23 games.  His walk rate is very solid, but it's actually the highest it's ever been, and other than that he hasn't shown anything to get excited about.  His piddly strikeout rate of 5.6/9 and the 160 hits allowed in 129.1 innings have led to a less-than-stellar 4.73 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.  Perhaps he has a chance as a reliever, but he doesn't appear to have a future as a big league starter.
--Result: Downgrade

37. Martire Garcia, LHP
--Seth Stohs (29): "Throws hard, good movement.  Young."
--Aaron Gleeman (31): "He's one of the leading candidates to make a big jump up this list in 2012...for now Garcia's rank is on the conservative side and based more on his potential than actual performance."
The owner of some big strikeout rates in previous years, Garcia's rate went down a little at Beloit this season, but was still over one per inning.  The big problem was his control, which he'd had issues with before.  It fell apart completely this season, as he walked 5 men in his first outing, his only start, and finished with 25 walks in 21 innings spread over 14 games.  He pitched in his last game on May 21st, after which he was released.
--Result: Released

36. Kyle Waldrop, RHP
--roger13 (15): "A candidate to be part of the Twins bullpen at some time next year [2011]."
--Seth Stohs (50): "Throws strikes and gets ground balls."
Waldrop has spent the 2011 season at AAA, pitching fairly similarly to the way he did at the same level in 2010.  His strikeout rate has dipped from a little over 6 K/9 to just over 5 K/9, but his walk rate remains very good, hovering around 2 BB/ 9.  The fact that his 70 innings of relief this season haven't been any better than last season isn't a good sign, but Waldrop didn't appear as if he would be a difference maker in the bullpen anyways.  He could still get a call-up in September, but it's looking less likely that he'll be a part of the Twins future.
--Result: Slight downgrade

35. James Beresford, SS
--Aaron Gleeman (24): "Slowly but surely adding some power at the plate to go along with what has always been an outstanding glove."
--b1, fan (39): "ZERO power.  Unless he put[s] on some size, he'll be a back-up."
The 22-year old moved up to Ft. Myers to open the season and has struggled there.  The power he was adding disappeared, as his ISO dropped from an ugly .065 in 2010 to a totally negligible .031.  He's continued to exhibit good bat control, striking out infrequently, but a .328 OBP and .303 SLG at High-A aren't encouraging.  He's also been quite inefficient on the basepaths, swiping 41 bases on 78 attempts in his minor league career, and 4 of 10 this year.
--Result: Downgrade

34. Nate Roberts, OF
--John Sickels (17): "Another '10 draft sleeper.  Solid tools and consistent production."
--Aaron Gleeman (30): "Dominating in a lower-level college conference and then beating up on rookie-ball pitchers hardly guarantees future success."
Roberts has followed up his excellent season at Rookie-ball with a good season at Beloit.  His power has fallen, but his ISO is a still-respectable .123.  His biggest asset is his on-base percent, which for the second straight season is at least .440, despite a decent-but-not-great walk rate of 9.6 %.  What's buoyed his OBP are the 27 occasions on which he's been hit by a pitch in just 260 plate appearances.  He showed a similar ability (yes, ability) in college, so if he can maintain it, he will be significantly more valuable.
--Result: Slight upgrade

33. Luke Hughes, IF
--roger13 (25): "Has one of the more exciting right-handed bats in the organization."
--Seth Stohs (35): "OK at Rochester, but again was injured... Potential big league super utility bat and pinch hitter."
Not only has Hughes has managed to stay healthy this year, he's spent a majority of it with the big league club.  His performance, however, hasn't been all that good.  His .274 wOBA certainly didn't play at first base, the position he played the most, and was only tolerable at second base because of the Twins' lack of other options.  Back in AAA now, his power has returned and he's cut down on his strikeouts, but he's been held back by an unlucky BABIP (.250).  Although he no longer qualifies as a prospect and didn't look good in the majors, Hughes remains one of the few players in the high minors of the Twins system with any semblance of power potential.
--Result: Graduated (Slight downgrade)

32. Dakota Watts, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (29): "Projects as a potential late-inning reliever if things break right... One of the rare pitching prospects not to fit the Twins' preferred mold."
--Seth Stohs (41): "Some control issues, but the guy throws consistently in the upper 90s."
To this point in the 2011 season, things have not broken right.  Watts returned to High-A Ft. Myers to begin the year, and pitched significantly worse.  His strikeout rate (6.44) was well below his previous low for any stretch of time and his walk rate remained about the same as in 2010.  Still, after 29.1 mediocre innings, Watts was promoted to New Britain at the end of June.  His strikeouts have rebounded somewhat, but remain lower than in any other season, and his walks have jumped back up to over 5 per 9 innings.  As a result, he's allowed 28 runs (24 earned) in 24 innings at AA.
--Result: Downgrade

31. Scott Diamond, LHP
--cmathewson, fan (26): "He could be another [Craig] Breslow... Doesn't throw hard but gets a lot of strikeouts."
--Aaron Gleeman (36): "His strikeout and walk rates have been mediocre... He could begin 2011 in a long relief role [with the Twins]."
Diamond's unsightly 4-13 record and 5.42 ERA in Triple-A this season are very misleading.  While he hasn't been a star, his peripherals suggest that he has pitched solidly and merely been the victim of some bad luck.  He's striking out more batters than last year with the Braves' AAA affiliate, and his strikeout-to-walk rate is up also, though they could still be described as mediocre.  His FIP of 3.74 more accurately reflects Diamond's performance in 2011, which isn't far off from his career minor league numbers.
--Result: No change

That's all for today!  Keep coming back to read the rest.

An Update on the Twins Prospects

With the Twins just having signed their top three picks from the 2011 draft, among many others, at the deadline, today seems like an appropriate time to review their minor league system as a whole.  What I've done here is comb through 12 different sets of rankings of the Twins prospects prior to the 2011 season, from both national writers and Twins writers, in order to come up with a composite ranking.  I did this, rather than form my own list, because I quite honestly don't know nearly as much about these minor league players as these other writers.

For each of the top 40 prospects, I offered short quotes from both the high and low ranker to gain insight into their reasoning, in addition to examining the impact of their performance so far this season on their prospect status.  In cases where the high and/or low ranker didn't provide an explanation, I gave arguments from other writers.  Also, players who have moved down are not necessarily moving down in the rankings, and vice versa, as that depends a lot on how other players around them are doing.  And it depends on how you feel about Levi Michael, Travis Harrison, Hudson Boyd, and the rest of Minnesota's 2011 draft class.

First, here's the breakdown of which prospect lists I used:

Local
Aaron Gleeman, AaronGleeman.com (40 prospects)
Fan Vote (run by roger13), Twinkie Town (50)
La Velle E. Neal III, Minneapolis Star Tribune (10)
Nick Nelson, Nick's Twins Blog (10)
Seth Stohs, Seth Speaks (51)

National
John Manuel, Baseball America (10)
John Sickels, Minor League Ball (22)
Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com (10)
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus (20)
Matt Hagen, The Hardball Times (10)
Reed MacPhail, FanGraphs (10)
Satchel Price, Beyond the Box Score (15)


And for today I'll just reveal those guys who were outside the top 40 in the composite rankings, but did appear on at least one list.

Click to enlarge

As you may notice, the list is not in order of average rank.  That is on purpose, as compiling a sensible composite ranking is not as simple as you might think since many lists rank a different number of prospects and not every prospect appears on every list.  For instance, Chris Herrmann averages a rank of 37 for the one list (Seth Stohs') that he is on, while Evan Bigley averages a lesser 44.  However, Bigley is on Twinkie Town's list in addition to Seth's, so you have to consider that Twinkie Town essentially rated Chris Hermann the 51st best prospect at best by leaving him out of their top 50.  The exact calculation of the order was a little confusing because of some problems this caused; if you want the full explanation, please ask.  It's a little wordy so I'm leaving it out of the post.

The top 40, with analysis as described above, will be revealed in the coming week.

More Rock Cats Videos

I uploaded a bunch of new Rock Cats videos to YouTube. All of the new videos are from the game on Friday, August 14th, 2009, when the Rock Cats won 7-0 behind a combined one hitter. Here are a couple of the videos from that game; go to my channel to see all of them.

Deolis Guerra:


Loek Van Mil:

Putting Up Zeros

That's exactly what the Rock Cats pitching staff has been doing over the past 4 days. In those 4 games, Rock Cats pitchers combined to allow 2 runs on 24 hits over 39 innings, including the combined one-hitter on Friday night and 12 inning shutout on Thursday. After Mike McCardell allowed a run in the 5th inning on Wednesday night against Erie, New Britain's opponents wouldn't score again until the 8th inning last night, a streak of 32 full innings of shutout baseball. And this wasn't against the bottom feeders of the league either: the first two games were against 62-56 Erie (Detroit affiliate) and the second two against first place Akron (Cleveland affiliate). Let's take a look at some of the statistics from this amazing run and the pitchers who made it happen:

-------------------------Total----------------------Shutout Streak
Innings Pitched:-----------39------------------------------32
Strikeouts:----------------37------------------------------32
Walks:----------------------8-------------------------------6
Hits:----------------------24------------------------------17
Runs:-----------------------2-------------------------------0
ERA:----------------------0.46----------------------------0.00
WHIP:---------------------0.82----------------------------0.72
Opponents Batting:---.172/.221/.201------------------.153/.203/.180

Mike McCardell: McCardell had the shakiest outing of the four starters during this run. He only went 5 innings, throwing 98 pitches and allowing 7 baserunners, though he was the only pitcher who had to deal with any errors as a result of Toby Gardenhire's 4th inning miscue. He still pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball while striking out 4.

Carlos Gutierrez: Gutierrez started the 32 inning shutout streak with a seemingly unspectular 1 inning stint, giving up 2 hits while striking out 1. This was his only appearance in the 4 games, but it continued a good recent run for him with no runs allowed in 5 of his last 6 outings.

Frank Mata: Mata appeared in 3 of the 4 games, missing out only on Friday night's one hitter. He pitched 2 innings on Wednesday and 1.2 on Thursday before an ineffective appearance last night, when he gave up 2 singles to lead off the 8th and was pulled before getting an out. Carlos Rivero eventually came around to score after his leadoff line drive single, charging the run that ended the shutout streak to Mata.

Alex Burnett: Burnett took over closer duties from Anthony Slama after the latter's promotion to AAA and he got the save in both games that he pitched. He picked up a standard 3-out save in the Cats 4-1 Wednesday night and then came in for the more unconventional 5-out save last night. Indians catching prospect Carlos Santana crushed a potential game-tying fly ball off of him, but fortunately it died at the warning track and the lead was preserved.

Ryan Mullins: Mullins continued his unheralded season on Thursday night, padding his Eastern League leading strikeout total with 9 over 7 shutout innings. He also induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls and walked only one in one of his best starts of the season.

Spencer Steedley: The lefty had a rough start to life in New Britain, but pitched well in 3 appearences in these 4 games. On Thursday, he struck out the only batter he faced. On Friday, he got three ground ball outs in a perfect ninth to close out the one-hitter for New Britain. Last night, he did allow an inherited runner to score to end the scoreless streak, but it was on a bloop single followed by a sacrifice fly.

Kyle Waldrop: No longer the giant he once seemed with the call up of Loek Van Mil, Waldrop picked up the win in the 12 inning marathon on Thursday night after pitching 3 shutout innings without allowing a baserunner.

Deolis Guerra: Guerra had arguably the best appearance of any pitcher during this stretch as he threw 6 no hit innings while striking out 9 before his pitch count (93) caught up to him. He looked shaky early on, walking 2 in the first 2 innings, but settled down and really found a groove in the 4th and 5th innings, striking out 5 of 6 batters and winning a fan a Weber grill in the process.

Loek Van Mil: The 7-1 Dutch righthander made his AA debut in relief of Guerra, and he struck out the first batter he faced. He looked impressive over his 2 innings, coaxing ground balls from the next 6 hitters, but unfortunately one of them found a hole and ended the chance for a team no hitter.

Matt Fox: With the shutout streak at 25 innings, Fox got the chance to continue it last night, and that's exactly what he did. Despite struggling over the past month and a half (44 innings, 38 strikeouts, 23 walks, 28 earned runs), Fox shut down the first place Aeros, giving up only 2 hits while striking out 6.

Prospect Videos

I finally uploaded these videos from the 2nd game of a Rock Cats doubleheader on August 1st.

Deolis Guerra:


Luke Hughes:


Juan Portes:


Steve Singleton:

Minor League Players of the Month: July

Rochester (AAA):

Juan Morillo: 11 G, 15.3 IP, 21 K, 9 BB, 4.11 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 3.40 FIP, 56.8 GB%
Morillo has won this award for three months running now. He continues to rack up the strikeouts, but as was the case last month, his win is more a reflection of the unimpressive pitching performances put together by the Rochester pitching staff.


Justin Huber: .286/.381/.536, 9 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 1/1 SB, 11 BB, 24 K in 97 PA
Huber improved upon all three components of his slash line compared to June, when he was also Rochester's top hitter. Huber has struggled in his limited major league opportunities, but he is ready should the Twins ever need a right-handed first baseman.

New Britain:

Ryan Mullins: 4 G, 23.3 IP, 25 K, 3 BB, 3.47 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 1.91 FIP, 45.2 GB%
Mullins cut down on his walks in July which allowed him to win his first pitcher of the month award. The lefty again struck out around 1 batter per inning and he leads the Eastern League with 100 strikeouts on the season.

Erik Lis: .305/.377/.552, 5 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 1/1 SB, 12 BB, 20 K in 122 PA
Lis was clearly the best hitter for the Rock Cats in July. He hit more home runs (7) in July than he did in the first three months of the season combined (6), including 4 homers in 4 games in a series against the Binghamton Mets.

Fort Myers:

Michael McCardell: 3 G, 21 IP, 21 K, 1 BB, 2.57 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 1.68 FIP, 42.6 GB%
McCardell was promoted to New Britain mid-month, but his three 7 inning starts for the Miracle were so good that he was still the best pitcher for Fort Myers. He continued his strong performance, minus a misleading ERA, after his promotion to New Britain, but was placed on the DL near the end of the month.

Joe Benson: .277/.434/.369, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4/8 SB, 16 BB, 15 K in 85 PA
After missing almost two months with an injury, Benson came back on July 5th and continued his best season by far as a pro. He has posted an OPS over .800 in every month and shown much improved plate discipline, including walking in 18.8% of his plate appearances in July.

Beloit:

Andrew Thompson: .333/.403/.449, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3/3 SB, 8 BB, 10 K in 78 PA
Thompson had a great month in July and as a middle infielder could have an impact in a system lacking at that position. However, at 22 he's not young for the league and has been pretty unimpressive overall, though his BB:K ratio has been solid all season long.

Liam Hendriks: 4 G, 24.3 IP, 23 K, 4 BB, 3.33 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 2.71 FIP, 57.0 GB%
The 20 year old Hendriks has been impressive in his first taste of full season ball, with a lot of groundballs and just around 1 strikeout per inning.

Elizabethton:

Josmil Pinto: .368/.414/.671, 7 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 0/0 SB, 7 BB, 12 K in 87 PA
Pinto had the highest OPS (1.085) in July of any hitter in the Twins' system. He benefited from a high BABIP, but still had 13 extra base hits and a .303 ISO.

Tom Stuifbergen: 5 G, 30.7 IP, 24 K, 4 BB, 3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.55 FIP, 69.0 GB%
Kyle Carr also had a great month before being promoted, but Stuifbergen had a much greater impact with almost twice as many innings pitched. He didn't have the best strikeout rate (7.04 K/9), but he didn't walk many (1.17 BB/9) and induced ground balls at almost a 70% clip.

GCL:

Andrei Lobanov: 8 G, 13 IP, 19 K, 0 BB, 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 1.69 FIP, 71.9 GB%
The numbers say it all for Lobanov. He had about the best month possible for a pitcher: lots of strikeouts and groundballs with literally no walks.

Wang-Wei Lin: .333/.455/.556, 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0/0 SB, 2 BB, 1 K in 11 PA
The GCL Twins struggled offensively this month, so I had no choice but to give the award to Lin despite his 11 plate appearances. No other hitter even had an OPS of .700 in the month of July.

More on Gutierrez

With the news that Carlos Gutierrez was being moved back to the bullpen, this post started to seem a little superfluous. However, I already typed the data in and Gutierrez made a start on Independence Day in Trenton, so I'm not quite sure what lies ahead for him and I'll continue with this analysis. In Gutierrez's 2nd start that I saw (June 24th against Harrisburg), he changed his pitch usage markedly from his first start. He threw 70 pitches, apparently on a pitch count because of his planned move back to the bullpen, 66 of which were fastballs and only 4 of which were sliders. 94.2% of his pitches were fastballs, and yet he was much more effective in this start than in his previous start. That could easily be small sample size issues, as I'm considering only one start in each case, but it is still interesting to note. He had 4 strikeouts and no walks, compared to no strikeouts and 3 walks in his previous home start. He gave up only one hard hit ball in the start, a home run after he threw consecutive fastballs in the 87-88 MPH range. In this start, he also held his fastball velocity much better than his previous one. He averaged 91.1 MPH on his fastball, but maybe more importantly held it consistently for all five innings this time. Here's his velocity by pitch number plot, with the low 80s pitches being the four sliders that he threw.



As usual, Gutierrez got groundballs with his sinking fastball, with 9 of his 13 balls in play being grounders, and 1 of the fly balls was off a slider. This start was one of his best at AA, but most of his starts haven't been nearly as good, and the chances of a one-pitch starter having success at higher levels are pretty low. It's unclear whether this move to the bullpen is a permanent one or if it is to help limit his innings because of his previous shoulder surgery, but if he doesn't improve his secondary pitches it will certainly be the former.

Oh, and here's Deolis Guerra in the stands last night before his first AA start tonight.

Minor League Review: June

Rochester Red Wings (AAA):

Hitter of the Month: Justin Huber, 1B
.264/.333/.500, 4 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 1/2 SB, 11 BB, 19 K in 120 PA
The former top catching prospect pounded International League pitching in the month of June to the tune of a .236 ISO. He turned 27 last week and doesn't figure to have much of a future at the major league level with Justin Morneau manning first base for the Twins, but he has consistently put up good numbers at AAA over the years.

Pitcher of the Month: Juan Morillo, RHP
10 G, 13 IP, 20 K, 10 BB, 4.15 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 2.59 FIP, 39.3 GB%
Morillo's line basically sums up the Red Wings pitching woes during the month of June, as he managed to win pitcher of the month honors for the 2nd straight month despite a decidedly average ERA and WHIP. His strikeout rate, 13.85 K/9 in June, along with his 95+ MPH fastball, remain his two great attributes.

New Britain Rock Cats (AA):

Hitter of the Month: Rene Tosoni, OF
.304/.439/.494, 7 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 2/5 SB, 15 BB, 13 K in 99 PA
Tosoni followed up his .971 OPS in May with a .933 OPS in June. He also sliced his strikeout rate almost in half from the first two months of the season, and walked more than he struck out in June. With the Red Wings featuring only three outfielders on their roster, Tosoni could see a promotion sooner rather than later.

Pitcher of the Month: Yohan Pino, RHP
8 G, 13 IP, 10 K, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA, 0.31 WHIP, 2.39 FIP, 46.4 GB%
At 23 years old, Pino is putting himself firmly on the prospect map with over 1 strikeout per inning out of the bullpen for New Britain this season. In June, Pino did not allow any runs while limiting opponents to 4 baserunners in 13 innings.

Fort Myers Miracle (A+):

Hitter of the Month: Chris Parmelee, OF
.297/.391/.554, 7 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 0/0 SB, 11 BB, 17 K in 87 PA
The Twins' 2006 first round draft pick has always shown impressive power and posted a good walk rate, but with his low average, high strikeout rate, and lack of speed he has been the opposite of the typical Twins' prospect. That, of course, is not a bad thing. At 21 years old in his first season at high-A ball, Parmelee has posted a .190 ISO and .359 WOBA, without any help from a near career low .311 BABIP.

Pitcher of the Month: Henry Arias, RHP
8 G, 16 IP, 14 K, 4 BB, 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.32 FIP, 47.7 GB%
In his first season with the Twins' organization, Arias has produced an underwhelming overall line for the season. The 24 year old had an outstanding month of June, though, as his line above demonstrates. Arias has also shown improved control this year, with a K:BB over 2 for the first time in his career.

Beloit Snappers (A):

Hitter of the Month: Ozzie Lewis, OF
.319/.329/.500, 4 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 0/1 SB, 2 BB, 15 K in 76 PA
As you can tell from the fact that I chose a hitter with 2 walks all month, there weren't any really impressive among performances among the Beloit hitters in June. Lewis showed some power in June, with a .181 ISO, and that was enough for him to take top honors in June.

Pitcher of the Month: Daniel Osterbrock, LHP
5 G, 27.7 IP, 23 K, 2 BB, 2.28 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2.97 FIP, 47.4 GB%
This was a much tougher choice than the hitter, as the entire Beloit starting rotation had an impressive month, with Osterbrock, Bobby Lanigan, Brad Tippett, and Michael Tarsi combining for 91 strikeouts and 17 walks in 104 innings. Osterbrock was the best of the bunch, though, as he began to show the same kind of complete domincance that he displayed in rookie league last season.

Rock Cats Report

The Rock Cats are now in second place in the North Division, with a record of 33-29 that puts them 1.5 games behind first place Connecticut. I attended all six games of the Twins' AA affiliate's recent homestand, and here are some observations from those games.

-This was my first chance to see the recently promoted Carlos Gutierrez, one of the Twins' first round draft choices from a year ago. He dominated for Fort Myers, earning my minor league pitcher of the month award for April. He struggled with his command a bit in May, but I was still excited to see the former Hurricane pitch for the Cats. Gutierrez's biggest strength is his primary pitch, a sinking fastball, which he uses to induce tons of ground balls. However, his main weakness is his lack of a second pitch to offset the sinker, which is why many feel he will eventually be more well suited to pitch out of the bullpen. Here's the velocity histogram from his start on Saturday in which he walked three and struck out none over 5 innings:



There seem to be three groups of speeds, which indicate that Gutierrez was throwing three different pitches. The fastest and largest group is obviously his fastball, which ranged from 86-93 MPH and averaged 90.1 MPH on the night. The middle group is his slider, which he threw between 79 and 84 MPH and averaged 80.9 MPH. The final group, three pitches at 75 MPH, I am going to call a curveball, though I'm not sure that's what it was. Certainly, with such a small sample, those could just be slower sliders, but watching him pitch they looked like they were different pitches, so I've grouped those three, plus one of his 78 MPH offerings which looked like it had similar movement, into their own group. There were also five pitches which were either missed by the radar gun or obviously recorded incorrectly, so the data only includes 70 of his 75 pitches on the night.

Another interesting graph to look at is the relationship between velocity and pitch number:



Clearly, like any starter, Gutierrez's fastball velocity diminished over the course of the game. However, it seems that the velocity fell rather quickly, especially considering he only threw 75 pitches in the game. This could be due to the fact that he's only returning to starting after Tommy John surgery and then pitching as a reliever at Miami, or it could mean that he is destined for the bullpen as a ground ball specialist. To further emphasize the decreased velocity, his fastball averaged 91.4 MPH with a range from 89-93 in the first inning, compared to 88.4 and 86-90 in the fifth inning.

-The other new player who I was excited to see this past week was the Twins' top catching prospect, Wilson Ramos. He was injured for all the home games in April, so this week was my first chance to watch him in person, and he did not disappoint, hitting long home runs in consecutive games on Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately, he got injured again while running the bases on Friday. After lining a single into left, Ramos injured his hamstring trying to stop at third on Erik Lis's double. Hopefully it doesn't end up being too serious, but he could barely put any weight on it afterwards and missed the last two games of the homestand.

-Danny Valencia has really fallen into a slump of late. After being one of the Twins' top minor league performers in April and May, Valencia has watched his overall numbers plummet over the past two weeks. In June, he has gone 6-52 with 11 strikeouts and has produced a slash line of .115/.207/.173. In fact, in his last 8 games, he's struck out 7 times without walking once. His June BABIP is only .146, though, so the numbers should turn around for him soon, but the strikeout and walk numbers are still a bit discouraging.

-On the other hand, Whit Robbins has continued his hot hitting in June. He has hit .400/.471/.578 this month with 5 walks compared to only 4 strikeouts. On this most recent homestand, 42% of Robbins's balls in play were line drives.

-Finally, here are some videos I took from the Rock Cats game against Bowie on Friday.

Here's the first video, Wilson Ramos's last at bat on Friday before his injury. He lined a single into left off of Timothy Bascom of the Bowie Bay Sox in the 4th inning.



The second video is of Danny Valencia's at bat two batters later, with pinch runner Jeff Christy on third and Erik Lis on second. I missed the first pitch of this at bat, but Valencia struck out against Bascom.



This last video is of Alex Burnett pitching to Ambiorix Concepcion in the 9th inning of Friday's game. Burnett was just recently called up from Fort Myers.

May in Review: Minor Leagues

Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Record: 17-14
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 138/135
Hitter of the Month: Luke Hughes, 3B
90 PA, 5 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 1/1 SB, 10 BB, 19 K, .273/.356/.481/.837
The question with Hughes has always been his defense, as he has done nothing but hit for the past couple seasons. This month was not really anything special for Hughes, but it was still enough for him to be Rochester's top hitter for the month. He still strikes out a lot, but continued his improved plate discipline this season by posting a walk rate over 11% for the 2nd straight month.
Pitcher of the Month: Juan Morillo, RHP
11 G, 17 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 10 H, 5 ER, GB%: 30
Morillo was sent down after a brief walk-filled stint with the Twins, and he pitched well enough to be the Red Wings pitcher of the month for May. He still walks too many hitters, but they did not come back to hurt him as much this month as he allowed hitters to hit only .175 as well as continuing to post an amazing strikeout rate.

New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
Record: 17-13
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 165/161
Hitter of the Month: Whitney Robbins, 1B
109 PA, 6 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 0/0 SB, 15 BB, 15 K, .370/.450/.598/1.048
Robbins's great month was just enough to prevent Danny Valencia from winning this award for the 2nd month in a row. Robbins has always been a patient hitter, and this month he showed a lot of the power that we saw in his minor league debut back in 2006. He now has a nearly .200 ISO on the season along with a .405 wOBA.
Pitcher of the Month: Rob Delaney, RHP
15 G, 21.2 IP, 20 K, 5 BB, 19 H, 4 ER, GB%: 56
I've talked about Delaney a number of times here, and basically his call up to AAA is way overdue. His great numbers this month were actually worse than what he did in April.

Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Record: 20-8
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 134/102
Hitter of the Month: Ben Revere, CF
105 PA, 4 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 10/15 SB, 6 BB, 10 K, .388/.430/.449/.879
Revere had a great month in May, though it was even more batting average dependent than usual for him. Luckily for him, he has shown the consistent ability in the minors to hit for a high average, but hopefully this month's decreases in walk rate and ISO were simply blips on the radar rather than true changes in his ability.
Pitcher of the Month: David Bromberg, RHP
6 G, 31 IP, 27 K, 14 BB, 19 H, 5 ER, GB%: 54
This was a tough choice, as Blair Erickson and Spencer Steedley both had great months out of the bullpen, but they pitched only 12 innings each. Therefore, the Miracle pitcher of the month award goes to Bromberg, who was one of the leaders of a pitching staff that allowed only 3.6 runs per game in May. He closed out the month with 12 strikeouts in 6 innings in his last start, and had an earlier start where he allowed only 1 hit in 7.2 innings.

Beloit Snappers (A)
Record: 11-19
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 147/173
Hitter of the Month: Nathan Hanson, 3B
96 PA, 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 2/2 SB, 8 BB, 16 K, .291/.365/.477/.842
It was a bad month for the Snappers, as they were the only Twins' affiliate to be outscored or under .500, and it wasn't close in either case. Nonetheless, it was not a bad month for the 22 year old former Golden Gopher. He posted a .186 ISO in May after having only 2 extra base hits (both doubles) and an .044 ISO in April.
Pitcher of the Month: Brad Tippett, RHP
6 G, 35 IP, 28 K, 6 BB, 30 H, 9 ER, GB%: 51
Another Australian signing for the Twins, Tippett was one of the few bright spots for the Snappers in May. Tippett showed great control, walking only 1.54 per 9 innings, and induced more ground balls than in the past. His 2.31 ERA led the Snappers' rotation in May, as the staff as a whole allowed almost 6 runs per game.

Rock Cats Videos

Yesterday I made my first trip to see a New Britain Rock Cats (the Twins' AA affiliate) game. Twin #2 scores games there officially (for an independent company), so he's at almost every home game, but it was my first chance to see the likes of Danny Valencia, Brian Dinkelman, Rene Tosoni, Rob Delaney, Anthony Slama, and the rest of the Rock Cats play in person. I was fortunate in that I got to see both Delaney and Slama pitch, and the Rock Cats eke out a 6-5 victory. Tosoni hit a three-run homer and Valencia also hit a home run. Jay Rainville and Frank Mata combined to give up five runs through six innings, but Delaney pitched 2 scoreless innings and Slama closed it out for the save.

I also attempted to take videos of the game, but the quality was very poor as I was using a cell phone camera. All in all I thought I did a pretty good job filming, but there's only so much I could do with such a low quality camera.

Valencia had already homered and singled, but unfortunately I got his groundout to third in the 7th inning against the Binghamton Mets' Stephen Clyne.
Pitch-by-pitch: Ball, Ball, Foul, Ground out


Delaney then pitched the bottom of seventh and struck out the side. I'm actually not sure what I filmed, because I didn't get nearly every pitch, but the play-by-play of the inning is as follows: Lucas Duda strikes out, Shawn Bowman strikes out, D.J. Wabick doubles, Josh Peterson strikes out. Oh, and the ball I completely lose and frantically search for was a foul ball that was well out of play.


After Delaney pitched another scoreless inning, Slama came in for the save. He gave up a line drive single, but then got a strikeout and double play to end the game. I missed the final pitch of his strikeout (a called strike) because I thought the batter had already struck out, but that was the only pitch of the inning that I didn't get. This video is two parts.
Pitch-by-pitch: Called strike, Single; Ball, Swinging strike, Ball, Swinging Strike, Called strike (not in video)


Pitch-by-pitch: Called strike, Ball, Swinging strike, GIDP



Sorry about the quality, but I hope the descriptions helped you at least follow what was going on. If I had a better camera of any sort, I would have used that!

Oh, and click here if you want to see the videos on Youtube.

Rock Cats Observations

Yesterday, I made it to my first Rock Cats game of the year and watched the Twins' AA affiliate take on the Connecticut Defenders (AA affiliate of the Giants). Madison Bumgarner, the #6 ranked prospect in all of baseball by MiLB.com, made his AA debut and got the win against Cole DeVries and the Rock Cats. His final stat line was very good (1 run in 7), but he didn't look particularly impressive in his first start at AA as there were a couple hard hit balls that were caught and he only had 2 strikeouts. Here are some other observations from the game:

-Toby Gardenhire cannot play first base. Maybe he just had a bad night last night, but I don't know how he can play shortstop if that's what he looks like at first. He had one error on a grounder that he missed, and there were two other plays where he did not field the ball cleanly and had to toss it to the pitcher on close plays at first. He also failed to scoop a pickoff throw in the first inning, though it was a bad throw by DeVries and the error was correctly charged to the pitcher.

-The two offensive players I was most looking forward to watching were Wilson Ramos and Danny Valencia, my minor league hitter of the month in April. Unfortunately Ramos went on the DL recently with a thumb injury, but Valencia was still starting at third base. He didn't really get tested on defense as he only had to handle a couple of easy plays, but he looked impressive at the plate. He didn't swing at bad pitches and got 3 hits, including a double, on the day.

-Defense is significantly worse in the minors than in the majors, and the Rock Cats had an especially bad night last night. DeVries had a throwing error on a pickoff attempt, Rob Delaney threw a potential double play ball into centerfield, and Brandon Roberts allowed a run to score when he picked up Delaney's errant throw and subsequently threw the ball away again. I already mentioned Toby Gardenhire's shoddy defense at first base, and Yancarlos Ortiz also had a ball bounce of his glove on a borderline call that went for a hit.

-I just mentioned Delaney, and he and Anthony Slama were the two pitchers I was most excited to see. Slama did not get into the game last night, but Delaney came on in the 8th in relief of Jose Lugo. He only faced three batters, but he looked pretty impressive to me. He struck out one and got two groundballs, though he threw one of those away as I already mentioned. The starting pitcher, DeVries, pitched very well, striking out 6 over 7 innings and allowing no earned runs. He had a big breaking ball, but none of the hitters were biting on it and he couldn't seem to throw it for strikes. Nonetheless, he had a great start which ended in a tough luck loss.

April in Review: Minor Leagues

Minor League Hitter of the Month: Danny Valencia, 3B, New Britain (AA)
81 PA, 3 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 0/1 SB, 13 BB, 14 K, .269/.395/.463/.858
Valencia has hit at every step in the minors, posting an OPS over .800 at each stop despite playing in pitchers' parks. As a now 24-year old college hitter, this was not exactly awe-inspiring or even unexpected. What got Valencia the top spot this month, though, was the improvement in his plate discipline. His strikeout rate has not changed significantly from his career average, but in April he walked in 16% of his plate appearances, a huge jump from the 6.3% walk rate he posted at New Britain in the second half of last season. The question now becomes whether this is a sustainable change or just the result of a small sample size, but either way it was enough for him to be the Twins' top minor league hitter in April.

Honorable Mentions: Ramon Santana, SS, Beloit (A); Rene Leveret, 1B, Fort Myers (A+)

Minor League Pitcher of the Month: Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Fort Myers (A+)
4 G, 18 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 8 H, 1 ER, 5.14 GO/AO
One of the Twins' two first round picks in the 2008 draft, Gutierrez did not impress those of us who subsequently watched his poor pitching performance in the College World Series. His performance out of the Fort Myers bullpen last season was impressive and then the Twins decided to turn Gutierrez into a starter; the early results could not be better. Known as a sinkerballer, Gutierrez has coaxed 5.14 ground outs for every air out, while only walking 1 batter per nine innings. Sure, his strikeout numbers have not been great, but if he can continue to force the ball into the ground that won't matter, as shown by his sparkling 0.50 ERA in April (due to some luck, as his FIP is "only" 2.70, but still very good).


Honorable Mentions: Rob Delaney, RHP, New Britain (AA); Anthony Slama, RHP, New Britain (AA)

Minor League Disappointment of the Month: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Beloit (A)
4 G, 11.2 IP, 10 K, 23 BB, 9 H, 14 ER, 0.85 GO/AO
Shooter Hunt got off to about the best start possible in his professional debut at Elizabethtown after the Twins chose him at #31 in the 2008 draft. Unfortunately, the whispers about his struggles with his control showed up when he moved up to Beloit, and those whispers have turned into shouts this season. Taking a quick glance at his statistics, it's not hard to figure out what Hunt's problem has been: the 23 walks in only 11.2 frames, nearly 2 per inning. There's not much else to say other than that if Hunt can't throw the ball over the plate, he'll never be a useful pitcher at any level.