Showing posts with label carlos gutierrez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label carlos gutierrez. Show all posts

Friday, August 19, 2011

Composite Prospect Rankings, #20-#11

Now we're getting to some exciting players, as we move to those prospects ranked from 20 to 11.

Click to enlarge
Note: Statistics current through August 17.

20. Pat Dean, LHP
--Kevin Goldstein (15): "A classic Twins-style strike-thrower, equipped with more command than stuff."
--b1, fan (28): "If Dean gets promoted quickly then next year [2011] he'll be ranked higher."
Dean opened the season on the disabled list and remained there until mid-May.  Upon returning, he was assigned to Low-A, one level above where he spent the 2011 season.  He continued to demonstrate precise control, walking 1.84 batter per 9 innings, and missed enough bats to be promising.  After making 8 starts there, and allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in 7 of them, Dean moved up to Ft. Myers.  He's had a much tougher go of it there, as his control, while still solid, hasn't made up for a big drop in strikeouts.  His 6.70 ERA makes it seem worse than it is, but he certainly hasn't been good in his 9 starts at High-A.
--Result: Slight downgrade

19. Eddie Rosario, OF
--John Sickels (16): "Sleeper outfielder from '10 draft, speed, on-base skills, some power potential."
--Aaron Gleeman (26): "He's a long way from the majors and may not even get his first crack at full-season competition until 2012."
The 19-year old has wound up in short-season ball again this year, playing for Elizabethton in the Appalachian League.  He's certainly built on his solid performance in the Gulf Coast League in 2010, though, hitting for average (.301) and power (.551 slugging).  He is striking out more, albeit not at a horrible rate, and isn't walking a whole lot, but the .250 ISO helps to overshadow that.  In all, Rosario's is hitting 40 % better than the league average, and has also been effective on the basepaths, stealing bases on 14 of 18 attempts.
--Result: Upgrade

18. Alex Burnett, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (18): "Capable of becoming a key component of the Twins' bullpen long term."
Outside of two insignificant stints with Rochester in April this year, Burnett has spent all his time in Minnesota. Unfortunately, he hasn't really built on his experience with the Twins in 2010.  His ERA, FIP, and xFIP aren't much better, if at all, than they were last year, and his peripheral statistics don't suggest much improvement either.  He could certainly still develop, but as of now it doesn't look like he will become a true late-inning option for the Twins.
--Result: Graduated (Downgrade)

17. Chris Parmelee, 1B
--Seth Stohs (12): "Cut down strikeouts and hit for average in 2010, but the power is still there."
--Aaron Gleeman (19): "As his contact and average increased Parmelee's power vanished... if Parmelee can't rediscover his power everything else will be a moot point."
Parmelee has repeated AA this year, but has vastly improved on his 2010 showing.  He continued to use the new approach he and the Twins developed last year, concentrating on striking out less and hitting for a higher average.  He did both of those things but also saw a rebound in his walk rate and power, which both rose back within the vicinity of what they were in past years, albeit in a more hitter-friendly environment.  He'll probably still need to take another step up with his power, but this was a good sign.
--Slight upgrade

16. Manuel Soliman, RHP
--Kevin Goldstein (14): "A converted infielder with arm strength and improving secondary stuff, he could move up after his full-season debut."
--Aaron Gleeman (21): "He's a long way from way from potentially entering the Twins' plans and still needs plenty of refinement."
Soliman's first time in full-season ball has had its positives and negatives.  He's not getting as many strikeouts, but still has a good amount with a rate of 8.31 K/9.  His walk rate, up to 3.51 BB/9, is also a concern, but it's not terrible.  The biggest problem is that he's surrendered 16 home runs in 118 innings, a rate of 1.22 per 9 innings.  It's hard to say whether that's bad luck or not without knowing his batted ball profile, but regardless it needs to come down.  If that happens, his numbers could look much better across the board.
--Result: No change

15. Billy Bullock, RHP
--John Sickels (8): "Could be a huge bullpen force if the command sharpens up a bit more."
--Seth Stohs (23): "The only concern is how quickly his walk rate has [risen] at each level the past two years."
Before the start of the 2011 season, Bullock was traded to the Braves so the Twins could keep Rule V pick Scott Diamond.
--Result: Traded

14. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
--Jonathan Mayo (9): "He's got a nasty hard sinker that generates a ton of groundballs."
--Aaron Gleeman (17): "He's been dominant at times and awful at others, but the overall performance is mediocre... Gutierrez's upside is based more on the praise for his "power sinker" than his actual performance."
For the last couple seasons, Gutierrez's statistics have not quite kept up with his prospect status.  In 2011 he was finally shifted to the bullpen full time after being jerked around between starter and reliever since he was drafted.  Probably not coincidentally, his strikeout rate has climbed to the highest it has been at any point in the minors, though at 7.26 K/9 it's still not particularly noteworthy.  Combined with giving up just one homer in over 50 innings, something that may not be far off from his true talent given his ground-balling tendencies, he's had a solid year at Rochester.
--Result: No change

13. David Bromberg, RHP
--Nick Nelson (6): "He lacks huge upside, but has a big curveball and profiles as a better version of Jeff Manship."
--Kevin Goldstein (17): "He's nearly big-league ready... but scouts see nothing special in him."
A broken arm early in the season has really set Bromberg back to this point.  In four starts at Double-A prior to the injury Bromberg had pitched solidly, perhaps readying himself to return to Triple-A, where he ended the 2010 season.  Instead he broke his arm and required surgery, and didn't return to the mound until July.  After a couple mediocre outings with the GCL Twins he was back in New Britain.  He's struggled since then, not lasting more than 4 innings in any of his four starts and not exhibiting his normally good control with 11 walks in 14.2 innings.
--Result: Downgrade

12. Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF
--Matt Hagen (8): "Young, high-upside position player... His bat is quick and he looks and carries himself like an athlete."
--Seth Stohs (17): "He's a five-tool talent... Long ways to go, but huge upside."
The 18-year old German has played at Elizabethton for all of 2011 after spending 2010 in the Gulf Coast League.  His performances have been pretty similar, though his average is down while his walks and strikeouts are up this year.  He's also played almost exclusively left field with the E-Twins after bouncing between all three outfield positions in 2010.  As he's still so young, he's got plenty of time to develop, making it tough to evaluate him solely on his statistics.
--Result: No change

11. Angel Morales, OF
--Seth Stohs (7): "Although the strikeouts are still high, his approach at the plate is terrific... No one questions his power potential."
--John Sickels (14): "Great tools, high strikeout rate, high risk/high reward guy."
On the disabled list following elbow surgery to start the year, Morales played in his first game of 2011 in mid-July.  After a brief rehab stint with the GCL Twins, Morales reported to High-A, where he spent the second half of 2011.  His strikeout rate continues to be very worrisome, but more importantly his power has dissipated significantly in his month with Ft. Myers.  Hopefully once he fully works back from the elbow injury it will return.
--Result: Slight downgrade


**Burnett was only ranked on one list, but I have to assume that was because the other list-makers determined he had exhausted his prospect eligibility.  For that reason, he's not downgraded for only being on one list.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Putting Up Zeros

That's exactly what the Rock Cats pitching staff has been doing over the past 4 days. In those 4 games, Rock Cats pitchers combined to allow 2 runs on 24 hits over 39 innings, including the combined one-hitter on Friday night and 12 inning shutout on Thursday. After Mike McCardell allowed a run in the 5th inning on Wednesday night against Erie, New Britain's opponents wouldn't score again until the 8th inning last night, a streak of 32 full innings of shutout baseball. And this wasn't against the bottom feeders of the league either: the first two games were against 62-56 Erie (Detroit affiliate) and the second two against first place Akron (Cleveland affiliate). Let's take a look at some of the statistics from this amazing run and the pitchers who made it happen:

-------------------------Total----------------------Shutout Streak
Innings Pitched:-----------39------------------------------32
Strikeouts:----------------37------------------------------32
Walks:----------------------8-------------------------------6
Hits:----------------------24------------------------------17
Runs:-----------------------2-------------------------------0
ERA:----------------------0.46----------------------------0.00
WHIP:---------------------0.82----------------------------0.72
Opponents Batting:---.172/.221/.201------------------.153/.203/.180

Mike McCardell: McCardell had the shakiest outing of the four starters during this run. He only went 5 innings, throwing 98 pitches and allowing 7 baserunners, though he was the only pitcher who had to deal with any errors as a result of Toby Gardenhire's 4th inning miscue. He still pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball while striking out 4.

Carlos Gutierrez: Gutierrez started the 32 inning shutout streak with a seemingly unspectular 1 inning stint, giving up 2 hits while striking out 1. This was his only appearance in the 4 games, but it continued a good recent run for him with no runs allowed in 5 of his last 6 outings.

Frank Mata: Mata appeared in 3 of the 4 games, missing out only on Friday night's one hitter. He pitched 2 innings on Wednesday and 1.2 on Thursday before an ineffective appearance last night, when he gave up 2 singles to lead off the 8th and was pulled before getting an out. Carlos Rivero eventually came around to score after his leadoff line drive single, charging the run that ended the shutout streak to Mata.

Alex Burnett: Burnett took over closer duties from Anthony Slama after the latter's promotion to AAA and he got the save in both games that he pitched. He picked up a standard 3-out save in the Cats 4-1 Wednesday night and then came in for the more unconventional 5-out save last night. Indians catching prospect Carlos Santana crushed a potential game-tying fly ball off of him, but fortunately it died at the warning track and the lead was preserved.

Ryan Mullins: Mullins continued his unheralded season on Thursday night, padding his Eastern League leading strikeout total with 9 over 7 shutout innings. He also induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls and walked only one in one of his best starts of the season.

Spencer Steedley: The lefty had a rough start to life in New Britain, but pitched well in 3 appearences in these 4 games. On Thursday, he struck out the only batter he faced. On Friday, he got three ground ball outs in a perfect ninth to close out the one-hitter for New Britain. Last night, he did allow an inherited runner to score to end the scoreless streak, but it was on a bloop single followed by a sacrifice fly.

Kyle Waldrop: No longer the giant he once seemed with the call up of Loek Van Mil, Waldrop picked up the win in the 12 inning marathon on Thursday night after pitching 3 shutout innings without allowing a baserunner.

Deolis Guerra: Guerra had arguably the best appearance of any pitcher during this stretch as he threw 6 no hit innings while striking out 9 before his pitch count (93) caught up to him. He looked shaky early on, walking 2 in the first 2 innings, but settled down and really found a groove in the 4th and 5th innings, striking out 5 of 6 batters and winning a fan a Weber grill in the process.

Loek Van Mil: The 7-1 Dutch righthander made his AA debut in relief of Guerra, and he struck out the first batter he faced. He looked impressive over his 2 innings, coaxing ground balls from the next 6 hitters, but unfortunately one of them found a hole and ended the chance for a team no hitter.

Matt Fox: With the shutout streak at 25 innings, Fox got the chance to continue it last night, and that's exactly what he did. Despite struggling over the past month and a half (44 innings, 38 strikeouts, 23 walks, 28 earned runs), Fox shut down the first place Aeros, giving up only 2 hits while striking out 6.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

More on Gutierrez


With the news that Carlos Gutierrez was being moved back to the bullpen, this post started to seem a little superfluous. However, I already typed the data in and Gutierrez made a start on Independence Day in Trenton, so I'm not quite sure what lies ahead for him and I'll continue with this analysis. In Gutierrez's 2nd start that I saw (June 24th against Harrisburg), he changed his pitch usage markedly from his first start. He threw 70 pitches, apparently on a pitch count because of his planned move back to the bullpen, 66 of which were fastballs and only 4 of which were sliders. 94.2% of his pitches were fastballs, and yet he was much more effective in this start than in his previous start. That could easily be small sample size issues, as I'm considering only one start in each case, but it is still interesting to note. He had 4 strikeouts and no walks, compared to no strikeouts and 3 walks in his previous home start. He gave up only one hard hit ball in the start, a home run after he threw consecutive fastballs in the 87-88 MPH range. In this start, he also held his fastball velocity much better than his previous one. He averaged 91.1 MPH on his fastball, but maybe more importantly held it consistently for all five innings this time. Here's his velocity by pitch number plot, with the low 80s pitches being the four sliders that he threw.



As usual, Gutierrez got groundballs with his sinking fastball, with 9 of his 13 balls in play being grounders, and 1 of the fly balls was off a slider. This start was one of his best at AA, but most of his starts haven't been nearly as good, and the chances of a one-pitch starter having success at higher levels are pretty low. It's unclear whether this move to the bullpen is a permanent one or if it is to help limit his innings because of his previous shoulder surgery, but if he doesn't improve his secondary pitches it will certainly be the former.

Oh, and here's Deolis Guerra in the stands last night before his first AA start tonight.


Sunday, June 14, 2009

Rock Cats Report

The Rock Cats are now in second place in the North Division, with a record of 33-29 that puts them 1.5 games behind first place Connecticut. I attended all six games of the Twins' AA affiliate's recent homestand, and here are some observations from those games.

-This was my first chance to see the recently promoted Carlos Gutierrez, one of the Twins' first round draft choices from a year ago. He dominated for Fort Myers, earning my minor league pitcher of the month award for April. He struggled with his command a bit in May, but I was still excited to see the former Hurricane pitch for the Cats. Gutierrez's biggest strength is his primary pitch, a sinking fastball, which he uses to induce tons of ground balls. However, his main weakness is his lack of a second pitch to offset the sinker, which is why many feel he will eventually be more well suited to pitch out of the bullpen. Here's the velocity histogram from his start on Saturday in which he walked three and struck out none over 5 innings:



There seem to be three groups of speeds, which indicate that Gutierrez was throwing three different pitches. The fastest and largest group is obviously his fastball, which ranged from 86-93 MPH and averaged 90.1 MPH on the night. The middle group is his slider, which he threw between 79 and 84 MPH and averaged 80.9 MPH. The final group, three pitches at 75 MPH, I am going to call a curveball, though I'm not sure that's what it was. Certainly, with such a small sample, those could just be slower sliders, but watching him pitch they looked like they were different pitches, so I've grouped those three, plus one of his 78 MPH offerings which looked like it had similar movement, into their own group. There were also five pitches which were either missed by the radar gun or obviously recorded incorrectly, so the data only includes 70 of his 75 pitches on the night.

Another interesting graph to look at is the relationship between velocity and pitch number:



Clearly, like any starter, Gutierrez's fastball velocity diminished over the course of the game. However, it seems that the velocity fell rather quickly, especially considering he only threw 75 pitches in the game. This could be due to the fact that he's only returning to starting after Tommy John surgery and then pitching as a reliever at Miami, or it could mean that he is destined for the bullpen as a ground ball specialist. To further emphasize the decreased velocity, his fastball averaged 91.4 MPH with a range from 89-93 in the first inning, compared to 88.4 and 86-90 in the fifth inning.

-The other new player who I was excited to see this past week was the Twins' top catching prospect, Wilson Ramos. He was injured for all the home games in April, so this week was my first chance to watch him in person, and he did not disappoint, hitting long home runs in consecutive games on Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately, he got injured again while running the bases on Friday. After lining a single into left, Ramos injured his hamstring trying to stop at third on Erik Lis's double. Hopefully it doesn't end up being too serious, but he could barely put any weight on it afterwards and missed the last two games of the homestand.

-Danny Valencia has really fallen into a slump of late. After being one of the Twins' top minor league performers in April and May, Valencia has watched his overall numbers plummet over the past two weeks. In June, he has gone 6-52 with 11 strikeouts and has produced a slash line of .115/.207/.173. In fact, in his last 8 games, he's struck out 7 times without walking once. His June BABIP is only .146, though, so the numbers should turn around for him soon, but the strikeout and walk numbers are still a bit discouraging.

-On the other hand, Whit Robbins has continued his hot hitting in June. He has hit .400/.471/.578 this month with 5 walks compared to only 4 strikeouts. On this most recent homestand, 42% of Robbins's balls in play were line drives.

-Finally, here are some videos I took from the Rock Cats game against Bowie on Friday.

Here's the first video, Wilson Ramos's last at bat on Friday before his injury. He lined a single into left off of Timothy Bascom of the Bowie Bay Sox in the 4th inning.



The second video is of Danny Valencia's at bat two batters later, with pinch runner Jeff Christy on third and Erik Lis on second. I missed the first pitch of this at bat, but Valencia struck out against Bascom.



This last video is of Alex Burnett pitching to Ambiorix Concepcion in the 9th inning of Friday's game. Burnett was just recently called up from Fort Myers.

Thursday, April 30, 2009

April in Review: Minor Leagues

Minor League Hitter of the Month: Danny Valencia, 3B, New Britain (AA)
81 PA, 3 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 0/1 SB, 13 BB, 14 K, .269/.395/.463/.858
Valencia has hit at every step in the minors, posting an OPS over .800 at each stop despite playing in pitchers' parks. As a now 24-year old college hitter, this was not exactly awe-inspiring or even unexpected. What got Valencia the top spot this month, though, was the improvement in his plate discipline. His strikeout rate has not changed significantly from his career average, but in April he walked in 16% of his plate appearances, a huge jump from the 6.3% walk rate he posted at New Britain in the second half of last season. The question now becomes whether this is a sustainable change or just the result of a small sample size, but either way it was enough for him to be the Twins' top minor league hitter in April.

Honorable Mentions: Ramon Santana, SS, Beloit (A); Rene Leveret, 1B, Fort Myers (A+)

Minor League Pitcher of the Month: Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Fort Myers (A+)
4 G, 18 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 8 H, 1 ER, 5.14 GO/AO
One of the Twins' two first round picks in the 2008 draft, Gutierrez did not impress those of us who subsequently watched his poor pitching performance in the College World Series. His performance out of the Fort Myers bullpen last season was impressive and then the Twins decided to turn Gutierrez into a starter; the early results could not be better. Known as a sinkerballer, Gutierrez has coaxed 5.14 ground outs for every air out, while only walking 1 batter per nine innings. Sure, his strikeout numbers have not been great, but if he can continue to force the ball into the ground that won't matter, as shown by his sparkling 0.50 ERA in April (due to some luck, as his FIP is "only" 2.70, but still very good).


Honorable Mentions: Rob Delaney, RHP, New Britain (AA); Anthony Slama, RHP, New Britain (AA)

Minor League Disappointment of the Month: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Beloit (A)
4 G, 11.2 IP, 10 K, 23 BB, 9 H, 14 ER, 0.85 GO/AO
Shooter Hunt got off to about the best start possible in his professional debut at Elizabethtown after the Twins chose him at #31 in the 2008 draft. Unfortunately, the whispers about his struggles with his control showed up when he moved up to Beloit, and those whispers have turned into shouts this season. Taking a quick glance at his statistics, it's not hard to figure out what Hunt's problem has been: the 23 walks in only 11.2 frames, nearly 2 per inning. There's not much else to say other than that if Hunt can't throw the ball over the plate, he'll never be a useful pitcher at any level.