==> Let's start with the worst things first, as the Twins scored fewer than 2 runs in 6 straight games for the first time in franchise history last week. That feat has only been accomplished 14 other times since 1919, and only two times was it done in more consecutive games than what the Twins just did (the record is 9). If you limit it to streaks of home games, as the Twins' was, it's only happened 4 times previously, and just one of those instances went for 7 straight. Therefore, the 4 runs the Twins scored on Saturday against Justin Verlander kept them out of some pretty ignominious company.
==> Ron Gardenhire spoke with Phil Mackey and Patrick Reusse on KSTP radio on Thursday, and let out a few tidbits. For one, he offered Jim Hoey, Chuck James, and Deolis Guerra as players who may get call-ups after September 1. The exciting name on that list is Guerra, who, as we discussed in the first episode of our podcast, has pitched excellently since being moved to the bullpen in New Britain and will be out of options next year. Granted, he was essentially listing players on the 40-man roster, but he did leave off one or two other pitchers, indicating Guerra is at least on the radar.
"Yes, well, maybe ours," Gardenhire responded to Reusse's suggestions that Jim Thome may have offers from some teams to come to Spring Training next season. He definitely passed it off as a joke, but I am a big believer that behind almost every joke there is some truth. Whether or not the front office would be interested, I definitely think Gardy will be in favor of inviting Thome back to the club next year.
==> Lester Oliveros made his Twins debut on Tuesday against the Baltimore Orioles and pitched decently, allowing a run on two hits and a walk in two innings. His second outing, however, came against the Tigers on Friday and was fairly disastrous. He got just two outs and allowed 3 hits, 2 walks, and 3 runs, including a bases loaded RBI single to Delmon Young, the man the Twins traded to get Oliveros. Of course, it was an infield single that dribbled right down the third base line, but it still counts as a hit.
==> Francisco Liriano lasted only two innings in his start against Baltimore before he was removed due to shoulder soreness. He was diagnosed with a posterior strain in his left shoulder, which very well could mean his season is over. Scott Diamond was called up to replace him on the Major League roster, and started immediately on Friday. He pitched to contact, as his numbers would suggest, giving up 11 hits and 5 runs in 6.1 innings. His line could have been better, but he left with the bases loaded and Glen Perkins allowed all three inherited runners to score.
==> On Saturday night, Stephen Strasburg started against the Rochester Red Wings as part of his rehab assignment. He thoroughly dominated the Red Wings hitters, pitching five perfect innings with 7 strikeouts. He came out for the sixth frame, however, and gave up singles to Aaron Bates and Steve Holm, who's now hitting .179 in Triple-A, before he reached his pitch limit. Bates wound up scoring, meaning Strasburg was charged with one run on his ledger. Still, it was clear that one player belongs in the Majors and one team was well under .500 in Triple-A.
==> Matt Tolbert is back at Rochester in order to make room on the roster for Rene Rivera while Joe Mauer is limited by a neck injury. It's really good to see the Twins keep Trevor Plouffe on the roster and in a starting role as he tries to establish himself as an option for 2012, rather than allowing Tolbert to continue putting up his usual pathetic offensive numbers. Everyone knows what Tolbert offers, and it's not exciting.
Showing posts with label deolis guerra. Show all posts
Showing posts with label deolis guerra. Show all posts
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Composite Prospect Rankings, #30-#21
I'll continue examining Minnesota's prospects, today delving into those ranked from 21 to 30.
30. Anthony Slama, RHP
--roger13 (23): "One of minor league baseball's top relievers throughout his career."
--Seth Stohs (33.5): "Reliever with [a] tremendous K-rate...should be in the Twins bullpen throughout 2011."
Slama struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings and allowed opponents to hit .200 or under again at Triple-A. He's done that at every level in every year of his minor league career. Ho hum. He got just 2.1 innings with the Twins this year at the beginning of June, as he was relegated to overpowering minor league hitters again. He even dropped his walk rate a little there, but no matter. Now he's dealing with an elbow injury, but at least it looks like he will avoid Tommy John surgery. Through no fault of his own he will fall on prospect lists as he is another year older.
--Result: Downgrade
29. Daniel Ortiz, OF
--Seth Stohs (19): "My choice for breakout hitter of the 2011 Twins minor league season."
--cmathewson, fan (36): "Skeptical about E-Town numbers, particularly power numbers."
A diminutive outfielder, Ortiz is getting his first shot at full-season competition this year. His power numbers have not been quite as good, but he's still accumulated 30 doubles and 10 homers, resulting in a .167 ISO. He's also showed improved plate discipline, upping his walk rate and cutting down on his strikeouts. It adds up to a performance that has been slightly above average in the Midwest League.
--Result: No change
28. Kane Holbrooks, RHP
--John Sickels (19): "Overlooked... Looks like a sleeper to me."
--Aaron Gleeman (27): "To stick as a starter Holbrooks needs to develop his off speed offerings."
Holbrooks made 7 starts at Ft. Myers last year to end the season, and even started one game with New Britain, but he returned to Ft. Myers this season as a 24-year old. His numbers have not been as good either, as he has a pathetic strikeout rate of 4.48 batters per 9 innings, a full 3 K/9 lower than last year at the same level. He was recently placed on the restricted list for reasons I don't know and hasn't pitched since July 17.
--Result: Downgrade
27. Bruce Pugh, RHP
--John Sickels (21): "Live arm, strikes people out, could surprise if his command sharpens up."
--DJL44, fan (34): "Has a live arm but a 4 ERA in Ft. Myers isn't impressive."
After starting at High-A last season and throwing over 100 innings there, Pugh began the season as a reliever at the same level. With 27 strikeouts and 6 walks in 24.1 innings, Pugh continued striking out lots of hitters while also harnessing his control. Upon being promoted to Double-A, though, he struggled mightily, imploding with 8 runs allowed in his first outing (1.1 IP). In total, he surrendered 16 hits, 16 runs, and 15 walks in 16 innings. He was then demoted back to Ft. Myers, where he's again been very good, striking out 28 against 7 walks in 19.1 IP.
--Result: Downgrade
26. Tom Stuifbergen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (20): "Raw stuff isn't overpowering, but Stuifbergen throws strikes, misses a fair number of bats, and induces grounders in bunches."
--Seth Stohs (30): "Will move up this list if he is healthy in 2010."
Stuifbergen has stayed healthy this season except for a very brief trip to the disabled list at the end of April, pitching 111 innings for Ft. Myers to this point. He's given up a ton of hits in that time and has seen a precipitous drop in his strikeout rate, but at least has maintained his pinpoint control, walking only 1.46 hitters per 9 innings. His ERA is a misleading 4.54, as his BABIP and LOB% indicate he is suffering from bad luck. Still, he's probably going to have to rediscover his strikeout rate to remain relevant.
--Result: Slight downgrade
24 (tie). Trevor Plouffe, SS
--Jon Kammerer, fan (21): "At least a utility guy with the potential to be an average regular if he can make more contact or increase his power."
--Aaron Gleeman (32): "It's pretty safe to conclude that Plouffe simply can't hit... A career as a utility man looks like his most realistic upside."
Plouffe got a cup of coffee with Minnesota in 2010, but found himself at Triple-A again in 2011. All of a sudden, though, he started to hit. In just 220 plate appearances, he had 15 home runs and 29 total extra base hits, good for a .323 ISO, which was nearly twice as high as in any previous season. In addition, he began walking a little more and hit for a high average, something he had never done before. Of course he is now 25 years old and has spent four seasons at AAA, casting some negative spin on his performance. His audition in the big leagues has predictably been less impressive, and his defense will prove key to making him a useful player.
--Result: Graduated (Upgrade)
24 (tie). Deolis Guerra, RHP
--Seth Stohs (24): "Has a tremendous changeup and he's got great makeup. 2011 is a big year for him as it is his final option season."
--Aaron Gleeman (34): "Struggled to maintain peak velocity and and ceased being a ground-baller. He's still young, but that's about all he has left in his favor."
At New Britain for the third consecutive season, Guerra once again failed to live up to his promise as a starting pitcher. For the first two months of the season, Guerra floundered in the rotation, allowing 49 runs (43 earned) in 43 innings with a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. At that point the Twins shifted him to the bullpen, where's he's been very effective. He's thrown 43 innings in that role, punching out 55 batters and 5 for every walk, and allowed only 16 runs (14 earned). Somehow still just 22 years old, it's good to see Guerra finally pitching well in any capacity.
--Result: Upgrade
23. Niko Goodrum, IF/OF
--Kevin Goldstein (16): "A fantastic up-the-middle athlete... he was lost with the bat after signing."
--roger13 (30): "Tremendous athlete who struggled in his adjustment to professional baseball."
Despite hitting .161 with a .414 OPS in 36 games with the GCL Twins in 2010, Goodrum moved up to rookie-level Elizabethton this year. He hasn't been as bad as last year (how could he be?), but his batting average is still just .239. His strikeout rate is also high, at 24 %, and his ISO is an unimpressive .094. If you're looking for positives I suppose they're that that offensive performance is only 13% below average in the Appalachian League and that he's 6-for-7 stealing bases.
--Result: Slight downgrade
22. Rene Tosoni, OF
--Aaron Gleeman (14): "Has consistently been above average at each stop without really flashing any standout skills... could be in line to replace Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer in 2012."
--Seth Stohs (32): "Solid all-around player. If healthy, he will move up quickly."
In his first taste of Triple-A Tosoni has disappointed. Just as he was consistently solid across the board at the other levels, he has been consistently below average in every category with Rochester. He's walking less, showing less power, and hitting for a lower average. Despite that, he's gotten a couple calls to the big leagues where he's almost exactly duplicated his AAA performance. He still has a chance to make a case for a spot on the big league roster next season with a month and a half left in this season.
--Downgrade
21. B.J. Hermsen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (22): "He makes up for [a] lack of missed bats with pinpoint control and a fair number of ground balls."
--cmathewson, fan (27): "A marginal prospect in my book. He never throws harder than 88 with little movement."
Hermsen spent most of the 2011 season at Beloit, essentially replicating his numbers from 2010. In 124.2 innings, his FIP was exactly the same (3.76) while his K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 were very similar. He was recently promoted to High-A Ft. Myers where he's made two starts. The early returns were good, but it's much too soon to make any sort of judgment on his performance there.
--Slight upgrade
Check back tomorrow for the next installment!
*Slama is ranked 33.5 because Seth originally left him out altogether by accident. Rather than move every player down one, he put Slama at 33.5
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30. Anthony Slama, RHP
--roger13 (23): "One of minor league baseball's top relievers throughout his career."
--Seth Stohs (33.5): "Reliever with [a] tremendous K-rate...should be in the Twins bullpen throughout 2011."
Slama struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings and allowed opponents to hit .200 or under again at Triple-A. He's done that at every level in every year of his minor league career. Ho hum. He got just 2.1 innings with the Twins this year at the beginning of June, as he was relegated to overpowering minor league hitters again. He even dropped his walk rate a little there, but no matter. Now he's dealing with an elbow injury, but at least it looks like he will avoid Tommy John surgery. Through no fault of his own he will fall on prospect lists as he is another year older.
--Result: Downgrade
29. Daniel Ortiz, OF
--Seth Stohs (19): "My choice for breakout hitter of the 2011 Twins minor league season."
--cmathewson, fan (36): "Skeptical about E-Town numbers, particularly power numbers."
A diminutive outfielder, Ortiz is getting his first shot at full-season competition this year. His power numbers have not been quite as good, but he's still accumulated 30 doubles and 10 homers, resulting in a .167 ISO. He's also showed improved plate discipline, upping his walk rate and cutting down on his strikeouts. It adds up to a performance that has been slightly above average in the Midwest League.
--Result: No change
28. Kane Holbrooks, RHP
--John Sickels (19): "Overlooked... Looks like a sleeper to me."
--Aaron Gleeman (27): "To stick as a starter Holbrooks needs to develop his off speed offerings."
Holbrooks made 7 starts at Ft. Myers last year to end the season, and even started one game with New Britain, but he returned to Ft. Myers this season as a 24-year old. His numbers have not been as good either, as he has a pathetic strikeout rate of 4.48 batters per 9 innings, a full 3 K/9 lower than last year at the same level. He was recently placed on the restricted list for reasons I don't know and hasn't pitched since July 17.
--Result: Downgrade
27. Bruce Pugh, RHP
--John Sickels (21): "Live arm, strikes people out, could surprise if his command sharpens up."
--DJL44, fan (34): "Has a live arm but a 4 ERA in Ft. Myers isn't impressive."
After starting at High-A last season and throwing over 100 innings there, Pugh began the season as a reliever at the same level. With 27 strikeouts and 6 walks in 24.1 innings, Pugh continued striking out lots of hitters while also harnessing his control. Upon being promoted to Double-A, though, he struggled mightily, imploding with 8 runs allowed in his first outing (1.1 IP). In total, he surrendered 16 hits, 16 runs, and 15 walks in 16 innings. He was then demoted back to Ft. Myers, where he's again been very good, striking out 28 against 7 walks in 19.1 IP.
--Result: Downgrade
26. Tom Stuifbergen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (20): "Raw stuff isn't overpowering, but Stuifbergen throws strikes, misses a fair number of bats, and induces grounders in bunches."
--Seth Stohs (30): "Will move up this list if he is healthy in 2010."
Stuifbergen has stayed healthy this season except for a very brief trip to the disabled list at the end of April, pitching 111 innings for Ft. Myers to this point. He's given up a ton of hits in that time and has seen a precipitous drop in his strikeout rate, but at least has maintained his pinpoint control, walking only 1.46 hitters per 9 innings. His ERA is a misleading 4.54, as his BABIP and LOB% indicate he is suffering from bad luck. Still, he's probably going to have to rediscover his strikeout rate to remain relevant.
--Result: Slight downgrade
24 (tie). Trevor Plouffe, SS
--Jon Kammerer, fan (21): "At least a utility guy with the potential to be an average regular if he can make more contact or increase his power."
--Aaron Gleeman (32): "It's pretty safe to conclude that Plouffe simply can't hit... A career as a utility man looks like his most realistic upside."
Plouffe got a cup of coffee with Minnesota in 2010, but found himself at Triple-A again in 2011. All of a sudden, though, he started to hit. In just 220 plate appearances, he had 15 home runs and 29 total extra base hits, good for a .323 ISO, which was nearly twice as high as in any previous season. In addition, he began walking a little more and hit for a high average, something he had never done before. Of course he is now 25 years old and has spent four seasons at AAA, casting some negative spin on his performance. His audition in the big leagues has predictably been less impressive, and his defense will prove key to making him a useful player.
--Result: Graduated (Upgrade)
24 (tie). Deolis Guerra, RHP
--Seth Stohs (24): "Has a tremendous changeup and he's got great makeup. 2011 is a big year for him as it is his final option season."
--Aaron Gleeman (34): "Struggled to maintain peak velocity and and ceased being a ground-baller. He's still young, but that's about all he has left in his favor."
At New Britain for the third consecutive season, Guerra once again failed to live up to his promise as a starting pitcher. For the first two months of the season, Guerra floundered in the rotation, allowing 49 runs (43 earned) in 43 innings with a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. At that point the Twins shifted him to the bullpen, where's he's been very effective. He's thrown 43 innings in that role, punching out 55 batters and 5 for every walk, and allowed only 16 runs (14 earned). Somehow still just 22 years old, it's good to see Guerra finally pitching well in any capacity.
--Result: Upgrade
23. Niko Goodrum, IF/OF
--Kevin Goldstein (16): "A fantastic up-the-middle athlete... he was lost with the bat after signing."
--roger13 (30): "Tremendous athlete who struggled in his adjustment to professional baseball."
Despite hitting .161 with a .414 OPS in 36 games with the GCL Twins in 2010, Goodrum moved up to rookie-level Elizabethton this year. He hasn't been as bad as last year (how could he be?), but his batting average is still just .239. His strikeout rate is also high, at 24 %, and his ISO is an unimpressive .094. If you're looking for positives I suppose they're that that offensive performance is only 13% below average in the Appalachian League and that he's 6-for-7 stealing bases.
--Result: Slight downgrade
22. Rene Tosoni, OF
--Aaron Gleeman (14): "Has consistently been above average at each stop without really flashing any standout skills... could be in line to replace Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer in 2012."
--Seth Stohs (32): "Solid all-around player. If healthy, he will move up quickly."
In his first taste of Triple-A Tosoni has disappointed. Just as he was consistently solid across the board at the other levels, he has been consistently below average in every category with Rochester. He's walking less, showing less power, and hitting for a lower average. Despite that, he's gotten a couple calls to the big leagues where he's almost exactly duplicated his AAA performance. He still has a chance to make a case for a spot on the big league roster next season with a month and a half left in this season.
--Downgrade
21. B.J. Hermsen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (22): "He makes up for [a] lack of missed bats with pinpoint control and a fair number of ground balls."
--cmathewson, fan (27): "A marginal prospect in my book. He never throws harder than 88 with little movement."
Hermsen spent most of the 2011 season at Beloit, essentially replicating his numbers from 2010. In 124.2 innings, his FIP was exactly the same (3.76) while his K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 were very similar. He was recently promoted to High-A Ft. Myers where he's made two starts. The early returns were good, but it's much too soon to make any sort of judgment on his performance there.
--Slight upgrade
Check back tomorrow for the next installment!
*Slama is ranked 33.5 because Seth originally left him out altogether by accident. Rather than move every player down one, he put Slama at 33.5
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
More Rock Cats Videos
I uploaded a bunch of new Rock Cats videos to YouTube. All of the new videos are from the game on Friday, August 14th, 2009, when the Rock Cats won 7-0 behind a combined one hitter. Here are a couple of the videos from that game; go to my channel to see all of them.
Deolis Guerra:
Loek Van Mil:
Deolis Guerra:
Loek Van Mil:
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Putting Up Zeros
That's exactly what the Rock Cats pitching staff has been doing over the past 4 days. In those 4 games, Rock Cats pitchers combined to allow 2 runs on 24 hits over 39 innings, including the combined one-hitter on Friday night and 12 inning shutout on Thursday. After Mike McCardell allowed a run in the 5th inning on Wednesday night against Erie, New Britain's opponents wouldn't score again until the 8th inning last night, a streak of 32 full innings of shutout baseball. And this wasn't against the bottom feeders of the league either: the first two games were against 62-56 Erie (Detroit affiliate) and the second two against first place Akron (Cleveland affiliate). Let's take a look at some of the statistics from this amazing run and the pitchers who made it happen:
-------------------------Total----------------------Shutout Streak
Innings Pitched:-----------39------------------------------32
Strikeouts:----------------37------------------------------32
Walks:----------------------8-------------------------------6
Hits:----------------------24------------------------------17
Runs:-----------------------2-------------------------------0
ERA:----------------------0.46----------------------------0.00
WHIP:---------------------0.82----------------------------0.72
Opponents Batting:---.172/.221/.201------------------.153/.203/.180
Mike McCardell: McCardell had the shakiest outing of the four starters during this run. He only went 5 innings, throwing 98 pitches and allowing 7 baserunners, though he was the only pitcher who had to deal with any errors as a result of Toby Gardenhire's 4th inning miscue. He still pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball while striking out 4.
Carlos Gutierrez: Gutierrez started the 32 inning shutout streak with a seemingly unspectular 1 inning stint, giving up 2 hits while striking out 1. This was his only appearance in the 4 games, but it continued a good recent run for him with no runs allowed in 5 of his last 6 outings.
Frank Mata: Mata appeared in 3 of the 4 games, missing out only on Friday night's one hitter. He pitched 2 innings on Wednesday and 1.2 on Thursday before an ineffective appearance last night, when he gave up 2 singles to lead off the 8th and was pulled before getting an out. Carlos Rivero eventually came around to score after his leadoff line drive single, charging the run that ended the shutout streak to Mata.
Alex Burnett: Burnett took over closer duties from Anthony Slama after the latter's promotion to AAA and he got the save in both games that he pitched. He picked up a standard 3-out save in the Cats 4-1 Wednesday night and then came in for the more unconventional 5-out save last night. Indians catching prospect Carlos Santana crushed a potential game-tying fly ball off of him, but fortunately it died at the warning track and the lead was preserved.
Ryan Mullins: Mullins continued his unheralded season on Thursday night, padding his Eastern League leading strikeout total with 9 over 7 shutout innings. He also induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls and walked only one in one of his best starts of the season.
Spencer Steedley: The lefty had a rough start to life in New Britain, but pitched well in 3 appearences in these 4 games. On Thursday, he struck out the only batter he faced. On Friday, he got three ground ball outs in a perfect ninth to close out the one-hitter for New Britain. Last night, he did allow an inherited runner to score to end the scoreless streak, but it was on a bloop single followed by a sacrifice fly.
Kyle Waldrop: No longer the giant he once seemed with the call up of Loek Van Mil, Waldrop picked up the win in the 12 inning marathon on Thursday night after pitching 3 shutout innings without allowing a baserunner.
Deolis Guerra: Guerra had arguably the best appearance of any pitcher during this stretch as he threw 6 no hit innings while striking out 9 before his pitch count (93) caught up to him. He looked shaky early on, walking 2 in the first 2 innings, but settled down and really found a groove in the 4th and 5th innings, striking out 5 of 6 batters and winning a fan a Weber grill in the process.
Loek Van Mil: The 7-1 Dutch righthander made his AA debut in relief of Guerra, and he struck out the first batter he faced. He looked impressive over his 2 innings, coaxing ground balls from the next 6 hitters, but unfortunately one of them found a hole and ended the chance for a team no hitter.
Matt Fox: With the shutout streak at 25 innings, Fox got the chance to continue it last night, and that's exactly what he did. Despite struggling over the past month and a half (44 innings, 38 strikeouts, 23 walks, 28 earned runs), Fox shut down the first place Aeros, giving up only 2 hits while striking out 6.
-------------------------Total----------------------Shutout Streak
Innings Pitched:-----------39------------------------------32
Strikeouts:----------------37------------------------------32
Walks:----------------------8-------------------------------6
Hits:----------------------24------------------------------17
Runs:-----------------------2-------------------------------0
ERA:----------------------0.46----------------------------0.00
WHIP:---------------------0.82----------------------------0.72
Opponents Batting:---.172/.221/.201------------------.153/.203/.180
Mike McCardell: McCardell had the shakiest outing of the four starters during this run. He only went 5 innings, throwing 98 pitches and allowing 7 baserunners, though he was the only pitcher who had to deal with any errors as a result of Toby Gardenhire's 4th inning miscue. He still pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball while striking out 4.
Carlos Gutierrez: Gutierrez started the 32 inning shutout streak with a seemingly unspectular 1 inning stint, giving up 2 hits while striking out 1. This was his only appearance in the 4 games, but it continued a good recent run for him with no runs allowed in 5 of his last 6 outings.
Frank Mata: Mata appeared in 3 of the 4 games, missing out only on Friday night's one hitter. He pitched 2 innings on Wednesday and 1.2 on Thursday before an ineffective appearance last night, when he gave up 2 singles to lead off the 8th and was pulled before getting an out. Carlos Rivero eventually came around to score after his leadoff line drive single, charging the run that ended the shutout streak to Mata.
Alex Burnett: Burnett took over closer duties from Anthony Slama after the latter's promotion to AAA and he got the save in both games that he pitched. He picked up a standard 3-out save in the Cats 4-1 Wednesday night and then came in for the more unconventional 5-out save last night. Indians catching prospect Carlos Santana crushed a potential game-tying fly ball off of him, but fortunately it died at the warning track and the lead was preserved.
Ryan Mullins: Mullins continued his unheralded season on Thursday night, padding his Eastern League leading strikeout total with 9 over 7 shutout innings. He also induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls and walked only one in one of his best starts of the season.
Spencer Steedley: The lefty had a rough start to life in New Britain, but pitched well in 3 appearences in these 4 games. On Thursday, he struck out the only batter he faced. On Friday, he got three ground ball outs in a perfect ninth to close out the one-hitter for New Britain. Last night, he did allow an inherited runner to score to end the scoreless streak, but it was on a bloop single followed by a sacrifice fly.
Kyle Waldrop: No longer the giant he once seemed with the call up of Loek Van Mil, Waldrop picked up the win in the 12 inning marathon on Thursday night after pitching 3 shutout innings without allowing a baserunner.
Deolis Guerra: Guerra had arguably the best appearance of any pitcher during this stretch as he threw 6 no hit innings while striking out 9 before his pitch count (93) caught up to him. He looked shaky early on, walking 2 in the first 2 innings, but settled down and really found a groove in the 4th and 5th innings, striking out 5 of 6 batters and winning a fan a Weber grill in the process.
Loek Van Mil: The 7-1 Dutch righthander made his AA debut in relief of Guerra, and he struck out the first batter he faced. He looked impressive over his 2 innings, coaxing ground balls from the next 6 hitters, but unfortunately one of them found a hole and ended the chance for a team no hitter.
Matt Fox: With the shutout streak at 25 innings, Fox got the chance to continue it last night, and that's exactly what he did. Despite struggling over the past month and a half (44 innings, 38 strikeouts, 23 walks, 28 earned runs), Fox shut down the first place Aeros, giving up only 2 hits while striking out 6.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Prospect Videos
I finally uploaded these videos from the 2nd game of a Rock Cats doubleheader on August 1st.
Deolis Guerra:
Luke Hughes:
Juan Portes:
Steve Singleton:
Deolis Guerra:
Luke Hughes:
Juan Portes:
Steve Singleton:
Thursday, July 23, 2009
GM Analysis: Trades
On September 14, 2007, Twin #1 made the inaugural post on this blog. About 12 hours earlier, Terry Ryan had announced his resignation from the general manager position that he held since the early 1990s. The Twins announced that his successor would be his former right-hand man, assistant GM Bill Smith. In his first offseason, Smith guided the Twins through tough situations with Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. The team finished his first season at the helm in a tie for first place, but missed the playoffs when they lost the memorable one-game playoff against the White Sox. The following winter was much quieter than his first, with the biggest move being the signing of Joe Crede in late February. With the trade deadline fast approaching, I thought now would be a good time to take a more detailed look at Smith's (mostly underwhelming) work thus far.
November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.
November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.
January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.
August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.
So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.
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November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.
November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.
January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.
August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.
So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.
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Wednesday, July 8, 2009
More on Gutierrez
With the news that Carlos Gutierrez was being moved back to the bullpen, this post started to seem a little superfluous. However, I already typed the data in and Gutierrez made a start on Independence Day in Trenton, so I'm not quite sure what lies ahead for him and I'll continue with this analysis. In Gutierrez's 2nd start that I saw (June 24th against Harrisburg), he changed his pitch usage markedly from his first start. He threw 70 pitches, apparently on a pitch count because of his planned move back to the bullpen, 66 of which were fastballs and only 4 of which were sliders. 94.2% of his pitches were fastballs, and yet he was much more effective in this start than in his previous start. That could easily be small sample size issues, as I'm considering only one start in each case, but it is still interesting to note. He had 4 strikeouts and no walks, compared to no strikeouts and 3 walks in his previous home start. He gave up only one hard hit ball in the start, a home run after he threw consecutive fastballs in the 87-88 MPH range. In this start, he also held his fastball velocity much better than his previous one. He averaged 91.1 MPH on his fastball, but maybe more importantly held it consistently for all five innings this time. Here's his velocity by pitch number plot, with the low 80s pitches being the four sliders that he threw.
As usual, Gutierrez got groundballs with his sinking fastball, with 9 of his 13 balls in play being grounders, and 1 of the fly balls was off a slider. This start was one of his best at AA, but most of his starts haven't been nearly as good, and the chances of a one-pitch starter having success at higher levels are pretty low. It's unclear whether this move to the bullpen is a permanent one or if it is to help limit his innings because of his previous shoulder surgery, but if he doesn't improve his secondary pitches it will certainly be the former.
Oh, and here's Deolis Guerra in the stands last night before his first AA start tonight.
As usual, Gutierrez got groundballs with his sinking fastball, with 9 of his 13 balls in play being grounders, and 1 of the fly balls was off a slider. This start was one of his best at AA, but most of his starts haven't been nearly as good, and the chances of a one-pitch starter having success at higher levels are pretty low. It's unclear whether this move to the bullpen is a permanent one or if it is to help limit his innings because of his previous shoulder surgery, but if he doesn't improve his secondary pitches it will certainly be the former.
Oh, and here's Deolis Guerra in the stands last night before his first AA start tonight.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Top 15 Prospects
Here's my list of the top 15 prospects in the Twins' organization:
1. CF Ben Revere- 20 (A)
Revere was the Twins’ first round draft pick in 2007, and critics instantly panned the pick of the 5-9 outfielder as a cheap move when he signed for the lowest first-round bonus in years. So far, though, the choice has worked out in the Twins’ favor, whether motivated by money or not. Revere batted .325/.388/.461 with 21 stolen bases (out of 30 attempts) in 50 games for the rookie league GCL Twins after signing, and has put up video game numbers so far this season. In 27 games for Class A Beloit, Revere has hit .418/.468/.589 with a 13:10 K:BB ratio. Revere hasn’t walked much in his brief minor league career, but he’s only struck out 30 times in 332 career at bats. Also, for all the talk of his zero power, a .171 isolated power is nothing to sneeze at, especially for a 20-year old with all the other tools that Revere has. He does need to work on his base running, however, as he’s only 17-27 in stolen base attempts this season. Especially with his 6.28 speed over 60 yards, he should be stealing at a much higher percentage.
If he keeps performing like this, Revere will move quickly through the Twins’ system, but as a 20-year old in Class A, he still won’t be playing in the Metrodome. I could see the Twins promoting him to Fort Myers late in this season if he keeps playing so well at Beloit, but it’s more likely that they’ll stick to their general one-level-a-year rule.
2. RHP Deolis Guerra- 19 (A+)
Guerra came over to the Twins from the Mets in the Santana trade as the high-upside 18-year old minor leaguer. If the Twins had signed him, he would probably still be in EST and playing short-season ball now, but after playing in the FSL last year for the Mets and holding his own there, the Twins decided not to demote him and he started the season in Fort Myers. While his won-loss record looks pretty, he has not been very effective thus far in the season. He has a terrible 32:26 K:BB ratio in 55.1 innings and has given up a ton of fly balls (0.64 GO/FO ratio). The most disappointing thing about those numbers is the decline from last year in the same league. Of course, Guerra is still a 6-5 19-year old who is already in Class A Advanced and has the same fastball and great changeup that scouts loved before the season. It’s weird that much of the #2 prospect’s description was spent on negatives, but that’s because all I have to go on are the stats, which aren’t looking so good this year. With the Twins’ conservative ways, Guerra won’t be heading to New Britain anytime soon (which is unfortunate considering the proximity to my home) unless he truly dominates with Fort Myers.
3. LHP Tyler Robertson- 20 (A+)
Robertson was drafted out of high school as the Twins’ 3rd round pick in 2006. An injury in the Beloit rotation in 2007 gave him his first full season opportunity and he hasn’t looked back since. He dominated the Midwest League as a 19-year old last year with 123 strikeouts in 102.1 innings and a 1.85 GO/FO ratio. So far in Fort Myers, Robertson has picked up right where he left off in 2007. Even though his numbers have dropped across the board, as should be expected for a 20-year old getting his first taste of a new level, he’s been very good in the Fort Myers rotation thus far. He doesn’t have a blazing fastball, but he pairs his average fastball with a great hard slider and of course still has time to improve his fastball as well.
4. RHP Anthony Swarzak- 22 (AA)
After a strong season with Fort Myers in 2006, Swarzak was looking towards continuing his road to Minnesota in New Britain in 2007. However, after two bad starts there, the Twins’ 2nd round pick in 2004 was suspended for violating the league’s (non-performance enhancing) drug policy. Once he came back from the suspension, though, he proved that he was still among the Twins’ best pitching prospects. Swarzak has struck out around 8 batters per 9 innings the last two seasons, and this year so far he has bumped that up to almost a batter per inning. More importantly, he cut his BB/9 rate from 3.7 in 2006 to fewer than 3.0 in 2007 and 2008. Of course, Swarzak has always given up a ton of fly balls, and it has been even worse so far this year, which means that his 4.18 ERA might be a little lucky considering he’s only given up 4 homers in 56 innings. After a great start to the season, Swarzak has struggled lately, but he should still be in line for a promotion to Rochester as soon a spot opens up there.
5. C Wilson Ramos- 20 (A+)
Ramos, signed out of Venezuela in 2004, had a fine season for the Beloit Snappers in ’07, but jolted up prospect lists after his dominant performance in the Venezuelan winter league (I’d post stats if I could find them). The Twins moved him up to High Class A for 2008, and after a slow start he has started picking it up of late. A .236/.289/.421 isn’t very flashy or eye-popping, but it is very solid for a 20-year old catcher in the Florida State League, where his OPS is actually slightly above the league average without even adjusting for the fact that he is a catcher. However, he needs to get more selective at the plate, as his 13:50 BB:K ratio suggests. Baseball America ranked Ramos as the best defensive catcher in the Twins’ minor league system, and scouts rave about his defense as much as his offense. The fact that he’s only 9 for 28 throwing out runners this year disputes that fact somewhat, but I’m willing to trust the scouts who’ve watched him play many, many times over me who’s seen him play for exactly zero seconds, especially when it comes to defense. Ramos should spend the 2008 season in Fort Myers, and possibly even start there next year if he doesn’t get comfortable there this year; he’s still got plenty of time, so there’s no need to rush him unless his play absolutely merits it.
6. RHP Jeff Manship- 23 (A+)
The only reason that Manship is ranked this low is that, at 23 years of age, he is old for the league that he’s playing in. Based on performance alone, the Twins’ 2006 14th round pick out of Notre Dame would possibly be the #1 starter in the system. Manship has been a dominating ground-ball machine since joining the Twins’ system, garnering ground balls at about a 2 to 1 rate over his minor league career. His performance at every level has been exceptional as he has issued only one free pass for about every four strikeouts over the course of his career with an 8.3 K/9 rate. Manship’s ERA this season in Fort Myers dropped to 2.72 after his complete game shutout of Dunedin last night and the ground-ball machine still has yet to allow a home run this season. As soon as Swarzak moves up to Rochester or another spot opens up in New Britain, this college pitcher should move up as he has nothing left to prove at these lower levels.
7. 3B Luke Hughes- 23 (AA)
I had a lot of trouble figuring out where to rank this Twins’ farmhand, and there’s a pretty good chance I’ll end up regretting putting him this high if he turns out to be just another guy a little old for his league who mashes for a couple months after a mediocre minor league career, but he’s turned me into a believer. I simply can’t ignore the ridiculous .335/.407/.618 line he’s put up so far this year that is 37% better than average in the Eastern League, which, for comparison, is the just how far above average Justin Morneau was in his stint at AA New Britain (albeit at a younger age). Of course, I’m not suggesting that Hughes will become anything close to what Morneau is, but it gives an idea of exactly how well Hughes has been playing. Hughes is a versatile player who has played third, second, and all three outfield positions this year. Before this season, he had been primarily a second baseman, but in 2008 he has played 30 out of his 46 games at third. Hughes should be promoted to Rochester as soon as possible, as it’s time to find out if he is for real or just another flash in the pan.
8. RHP Kevin Mulvey- 23 (AAA)
Mulvey is the first prospect on the list to be close to actually helping the Twins, though he still probably won’t be called up anytime soon. The Twins already have an extra starter in Boof Bonser, and with the way he’s been pitching of late, Francisco Liriano is probably ahead of Mulvey if the need for another starter arises. Mulvey has been disappointing thus far in 2008, as his ground ball rate has shrunk and his walk rate has risen 50% from last season (when he pitched mainly in AA). His strikeout rate is very good this year, with 54 K in 61.1 innings, a significant increase from his 113 in 157.2 innings last year in the Mets’ organization. The increase in walk rate and decrease in ground ball rate are hopefully just attributable to his getting adjusted to the new level, and Mulvey still has a good shot of fulfilling his potential as a #3 or #4 starter, though that shot probably won’t come this year (at least as a starter).
9. SS Trevor Plouffe- 21 (AA)
The Twins’ first round pick in 2004 has made his way into a lot of discussions about the Twins’ future shortstop plans, but I’m not as high as him as others are despite his #9 ranking. His youth and decent play in a higher level get him ranked ahead of other, younger prospects like Deibinson Romero and Danny Valencia, but I just don’t think his ceiling is very high. To me, he has a good chance of playing in the majors, but does not have the potential of turning into anything more than an average player that someone like Romero has. So far in 2008, Plouffe has performed remarkably similarly to his play last season, which was also in AA. If he showed some improvement over last year, I would believe in his higher ceiling, but his .274/.326/.410 line is almost exactly the same as the .275/.335/.415 that he’s hitting this year. In addition, his plate discipline has improved only marginally (IsoD increased by 8 points), while his BB:K ratio has decreased slightly from 0.43 to 0.37. Of course, I’m focusing only on the negatives. The positive side is that Plouffe is a soon-to-be 22 year old shortstop who has held his own in AA for two years now, and has a very good chance to play with the Twins by the end of next year, though it may be as a backup or role player rather than starter.
10. 3B Deibinson (D.J.) Romero- 21 (A)
Romero is only three months younger than Plouffe, yet is two levels behind him; this is more of a credit to Plouffe than a knock on Romero. Romero, though, has put up excellent numbers thus far in his minor league career. He led the rookie-league Elizabethton Twins to a 50-18 record with his .316/.406/.506 hitting line. He began 2008 with Beloit, but got injured after playing in 17 games, which is too small of a sample to read anything into (though his .214/.242/.339 line was not very pretty). The driving force behind Romero’s breakout year at Elizabethton was his improved pitch selection and plate discipline. After sporting a 1:3 BB:K ratio and about a .065 isolated discipline in his first two minor league seasons, he cut his BB:K ratio to 1:1.4 and upped his IsoD to .080. Romero plays solid defense at third, and projects to be able to play it all the way to the majors if he makes it there. Right now, let’s just hope that he recovers from his injury so he can get back to the field and continue moving up the prospect list.
11. OF/1B Chris Parmelee- 20 (A)
12. OF Joe Benson- 20 (A)
13. 3B Danny Valencia- 23 (A+)
14. RHP Anthony Slama- 24 (A+)
15. OF Rene Tosoni- 21 (A+)
The MLB draft is Thursday at 2 PM, and I hope to have some sort of preview done by Thursday morning. Luckily for me, I'm sure no one reading this actually cares about the draft, so no one will be dissapointed if I don't do it (I'd be happy if someone actually scrolled down far enough to read this).
1. CF Ben Revere- 20 (A)
Revere was the Twins’ first round draft pick in 2007, and critics instantly panned the pick of the 5-9 outfielder as a cheap move when he signed for the lowest first-round bonus in years. So far, though, the choice has worked out in the Twins’ favor, whether motivated by money or not. Revere batted .325/.388/.461 with 21 stolen bases (out of 30 attempts) in 50 games for the rookie league GCL Twins after signing, and has put up video game numbers so far this season. In 27 games for Class A Beloit, Revere has hit .418/.468/.589 with a 13:10 K:BB ratio. Revere hasn’t walked much in his brief minor league career, but he’s only struck out 30 times in 332 career at bats. Also, for all the talk of his zero power, a .171 isolated power is nothing to sneeze at, especially for a 20-year old with all the other tools that Revere has. He does need to work on his base running, however, as he’s only 17-27 in stolen base attempts this season. Especially with his 6.28 speed over 60 yards, he should be stealing at a much higher percentage.
If he keeps performing like this, Revere will move quickly through the Twins’ system, but as a 20-year old in Class A, he still won’t be playing in the Metrodome. I could see the Twins promoting him to Fort Myers late in this season if he keeps playing so well at Beloit, but it’s more likely that they’ll stick to their general one-level-a-year rule.
2. RHP Deolis Guerra- 19 (A+)
Guerra came over to the Twins from the Mets in the Santana trade as the high-upside 18-year old minor leaguer. If the Twins had signed him, he would probably still be in EST and playing short-season ball now, but after playing in the FSL last year for the Mets and holding his own there, the Twins decided not to demote him and he started the season in Fort Myers. While his won-loss record looks pretty, he has not been very effective thus far in the season. He has a terrible 32:26 K:BB ratio in 55.1 innings and has given up a ton of fly balls (0.64 GO/FO ratio). The most disappointing thing about those numbers is the decline from last year in the same league. Of course, Guerra is still a 6-5 19-year old who is already in Class A Advanced and has the same fastball and great changeup that scouts loved before the season. It’s weird that much of the #2 prospect’s description was spent on negatives, but that’s because all I have to go on are the stats, which aren’t looking so good this year. With the Twins’ conservative ways, Guerra won’t be heading to New Britain anytime soon (which is unfortunate considering the proximity to my home) unless he truly dominates with Fort Myers.
3. LHP Tyler Robertson- 20 (A+)
Robertson was drafted out of high school as the Twins’ 3rd round pick in 2006. An injury in the Beloit rotation in 2007 gave him his first full season opportunity and he hasn’t looked back since. He dominated the Midwest League as a 19-year old last year with 123 strikeouts in 102.1 innings and a 1.85 GO/FO ratio. So far in Fort Myers, Robertson has picked up right where he left off in 2007. Even though his numbers have dropped across the board, as should be expected for a 20-year old getting his first taste of a new level, he’s been very good in the Fort Myers rotation thus far. He doesn’t have a blazing fastball, but he pairs his average fastball with a great hard slider and of course still has time to improve his fastball as well.
4. RHP Anthony Swarzak- 22 (AA)
After a strong season with Fort Myers in 2006, Swarzak was looking towards continuing his road to Minnesota in New Britain in 2007. However, after two bad starts there, the Twins’ 2nd round pick in 2004 was suspended for violating the league’s (non-performance enhancing) drug policy. Once he came back from the suspension, though, he proved that he was still among the Twins’ best pitching prospects. Swarzak has struck out around 8 batters per 9 innings the last two seasons, and this year so far he has bumped that up to almost a batter per inning. More importantly, he cut his BB/9 rate from 3.7 in 2006 to fewer than 3.0 in 2007 and 2008. Of course, Swarzak has always given up a ton of fly balls, and it has been even worse so far this year, which means that his 4.18 ERA might be a little lucky considering he’s only given up 4 homers in 56 innings. After a great start to the season, Swarzak has struggled lately, but he should still be in line for a promotion to Rochester as soon a spot opens up there.
5. C Wilson Ramos- 20 (A+)
Ramos, signed out of Venezuela in 2004, had a fine season for the Beloit Snappers in ’07, but jolted up prospect lists after his dominant performance in the Venezuelan winter league (I’d post stats if I could find them). The Twins moved him up to High Class A for 2008, and after a slow start he has started picking it up of late. A .236/.289/.421 isn’t very flashy or eye-popping, but it is very solid for a 20-year old catcher in the Florida State League, where his OPS is actually slightly above the league average without even adjusting for the fact that he is a catcher. However, he needs to get more selective at the plate, as his 13:50 BB:K ratio suggests. Baseball America ranked Ramos as the best defensive catcher in the Twins’ minor league system, and scouts rave about his defense as much as his offense. The fact that he’s only 9 for 28 throwing out runners this year disputes that fact somewhat, but I’m willing to trust the scouts who’ve watched him play many, many times over me who’s seen him play for exactly zero seconds, especially when it comes to defense. Ramos should spend the 2008 season in Fort Myers, and possibly even start there next year if he doesn’t get comfortable there this year; he’s still got plenty of time, so there’s no need to rush him unless his play absolutely merits it.
6. RHP Jeff Manship- 23 (A+)
The only reason that Manship is ranked this low is that, at 23 years of age, he is old for the league that he’s playing in. Based on performance alone, the Twins’ 2006 14th round pick out of Notre Dame would possibly be the #1 starter in the system. Manship has been a dominating ground-ball machine since joining the Twins’ system, garnering ground balls at about a 2 to 1 rate over his minor league career. His performance at every level has been exceptional as he has issued only one free pass for about every four strikeouts over the course of his career with an 8.3 K/9 rate. Manship’s ERA this season in Fort Myers dropped to 2.72 after his complete game shutout of Dunedin last night and the ground-ball machine still has yet to allow a home run this season. As soon as Swarzak moves up to Rochester or another spot opens up in New Britain, this college pitcher should move up as he has nothing left to prove at these lower levels.
7. 3B Luke Hughes- 23 (AA)
I had a lot of trouble figuring out where to rank this Twins’ farmhand, and there’s a pretty good chance I’ll end up regretting putting him this high if he turns out to be just another guy a little old for his league who mashes for a couple months after a mediocre minor league career, but he’s turned me into a believer. I simply can’t ignore the ridiculous .335/.407/.618 line he’s put up so far this year that is 37% better than average in the Eastern League, which, for comparison, is the just how far above average Justin Morneau was in his stint at AA New Britain (albeit at a younger age). Of course, I’m not suggesting that Hughes will become anything close to what Morneau is, but it gives an idea of exactly how well Hughes has been playing. Hughes is a versatile player who has played third, second, and all three outfield positions this year. Before this season, he had been primarily a second baseman, but in 2008 he has played 30 out of his 46 games at third. Hughes should be promoted to Rochester as soon as possible, as it’s time to find out if he is for real or just another flash in the pan.
8. RHP Kevin Mulvey- 23 (AAA)
Mulvey is the first prospect on the list to be close to actually helping the Twins, though he still probably won’t be called up anytime soon. The Twins already have an extra starter in Boof Bonser, and with the way he’s been pitching of late, Francisco Liriano is probably ahead of Mulvey if the need for another starter arises. Mulvey has been disappointing thus far in 2008, as his ground ball rate has shrunk and his walk rate has risen 50% from last season (when he pitched mainly in AA). His strikeout rate is very good this year, with 54 K in 61.1 innings, a significant increase from his 113 in 157.2 innings last year in the Mets’ organization. The increase in walk rate and decrease in ground ball rate are hopefully just attributable to his getting adjusted to the new level, and Mulvey still has a good shot of fulfilling his potential as a #3 or #4 starter, though that shot probably won’t come this year (at least as a starter).
9. SS Trevor Plouffe- 21 (AA)
The Twins’ first round pick in 2004 has made his way into a lot of discussions about the Twins’ future shortstop plans, but I’m not as high as him as others are despite his #9 ranking. His youth and decent play in a higher level get him ranked ahead of other, younger prospects like Deibinson Romero and Danny Valencia, but I just don’t think his ceiling is very high. To me, he has a good chance of playing in the majors, but does not have the potential of turning into anything more than an average player that someone like Romero has. So far in 2008, Plouffe has performed remarkably similarly to his play last season, which was also in AA. If he showed some improvement over last year, I would believe in his higher ceiling, but his .274/.326/.410 line is almost exactly the same as the .275/.335/.415 that he’s hitting this year. In addition, his plate discipline has improved only marginally (IsoD increased by 8 points), while his BB:K ratio has decreased slightly from 0.43 to 0.37. Of course, I’m focusing only on the negatives. The positive side is that Plouffe is a soon-to-be 22 year old shortstop who has held his own in AA for two years now, and has a very good chance to play with the Twins by the end of next year, though it may be as a backup or role player rather than starter.
10. 3B Deibinson (D.J.) Romero- 21 (A)
Romero is only three months younger than Plouffe, yet is two levels behind him; this is more of a credit to Plouffe than a knock on Romero. Romero, though, has put up excellent numbers thus far in his minor league career. He led the rookie-league Elizabethton Twins to a 50-18 record with his .316/.406/.506 hitting line. He began 2008 with Beloit, but got injured after playing in 17 games, which is too small of a sample to read anything into (though his .214/.242/.339 line was not very pretty). The driving force behind Romero’s breakout year at Elizabethton was his improved pitch selection and plate discipline. After sporting a 1:3 BB:K ratio and about a .065 isolated discipline in his first two minor league seasons, he cut his BB:K ratio to 1:1.4 and upped his IsoD to .080. Romero plays solid defense at third, and projects to be able to play it all the way to the majors if he makes it there. Right now, let’s just hope that he recovers from his injury so he can get back to the field and continue moving up the prospect list.
11. OF/1B Chris Parmelee- 20 (A)
12. OF Joe Benson- 20 (A)
13. 3B Danny Valencia- 23 (A+)
14. RHP Anthony Slama- 24 (A+)
15. OF Rene Tosoni- 21 (A+)
The MLB draft is Thursday at 2 PM, and I hope to have some sort of preview done by Thursday morning. Luckily for me, I'm sure no one reading this actually cares about the draft, so no one will be dissapointed if I don't do it (I'd be happy if someone actually scrolled down far enough to read this).
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Minor League Update
I don't know if I'll do this regularly, but I just felt like doing a minor league post today. I check the minor league box scores every night, so it just depends on if I decide to post about them.
Note: I'm not including runs and RBIs as stats, because for me this is a look at who might help the Twins in the future, and I don't think those stats are very indicative of a hitter's talents.
Who's Hot:
Denard Span (AAA): Last 5 games- .450/.500/.545, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 6-6 SB
Span has continued his solid season at Rochester since being sent back down. He's never going to hit for power, but improved plate discipline (10:8 BB:K for the season) and baserunning (11-13 SB compared to 25-39 in 2007) could go a long way toward making him a serviceable major leaguer if he keeps it up this season.
Luke Hughes (AA): Last 10 games- .417/.462/.667, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 1-1 SB
The best part about these numbers is that they're basically equal to Hughes' ridiculous .386/.448/.685 line on the season. He turns 24 in August and has played all over the field so far this season. If he continues to hit anywhere near this level, it doesn't matter where he plays; he'll find a spot in the lineup.
Ben Revere (A): Last 9 games- .432/.475/.568, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 3 K, 4-8 SB
Since getting promoted from EST on April 28th, the Twins' 2007 first round draft pick has done everything to prove that his play in the GCL league last year was no fluke. The Twins obviously thought highly of him when they took him in the first round, so now we just have to sit back and see if he can continue this hot hitting.
Who's Not
Jason Pridie (AAA): Last 5 games- .050/.136/.050, 2 BB, 5 K
When he started the season well, it looked like he would prove his 2007 season was no fluke. However, he has struggled lately and his line on the season has fallen to .270/.324/.381 while he has not had an extra base hit in his last 10 games.
Deolis Guerra (A+): Last 2 starts- 8.1 IP, 15 H, 11 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Guerra just turned 19 and is already in High-A, so these couple of bad starts mean nothing in terms of his long-term potential. Obviously it would be more encouraging if he was lights out for Fort Myers, but his numbers on the season are still decent even with these starts.
Drew Butera (AA): Last 10 games- .067/.263/.067, 8 BB, 11 K
Butera has managed 8 BB in his last 10 games, but when you have 2 singles in your last 30 at bats, it's hard to stay off of this list. His play isn't that concerning to me, though, as I've never expected him to have any role with the big league team since his acquisition in the Castillo trade.
Note: I'm not including runs and RBIs as stats, because for me this is a look at who might help the Twins in the future, and I don't think those stats are very indicative of a hitter's talents.
Who's Hot:
Denard Span (AAA): Last 5 games- .450/.500/.545, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 6-6 SB
Span has continued his solid season at Rochester since being sent back down. He's never going to hit for power, but improved plate discipline (10:8 BB:K for the season) and baserunning (11-13 SB compared to 25-39 in 2007) could go a long way toward making him a serviceable major leaguer if he keeps it up this season.
Luke Hughes (AA): Last 10 games- .417/.462/.667, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 1-1 SB
The best part about these numbers is that they're basically equal to Hughes' ridiculous .386/.448/.685 line on the season. He turns 24 in August and has played all over the field so far this season. If he continues to hit anywhere near this level, it doesn't matter where he plays; he'll find a spot in the lineup.
Ben Revere (A): Last 9 games- .432/.475/.568, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 3 K, 4-8 SB
Since getting promoted from EST on April 28th, the Twins' 2007 first round draft pick has done everything to prove that his play in the GCL league last year was no fluke. The Twins obviously thought highly of him when they took him in the first round, so now we just have to sit back and see if he can continue this hot hitting.
Who's Not
Jason Pridie (AAA): Last 5 games- .050/.136/.050, 2 BB, 5 K
When he started the season well, it looked like he would prove his 2007 season was no fluke. However, he has struggled lately and his line on the season has fallen to .270/.324/.381 while he has not had an extra base hit in his last 10 games.
Deolis Guerra (A+): Last 2 starts- 8.1 IP, 15 H, 11 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Guerra just turned 19 and is already in High-A, so these couple of bad starts mean nothing in terms of his long-term potential. Obviously it would be more encouraging if he was lights out for Fort Myers, but his numbers on the season are still decent even with these starts.
Drew Butera (AA): Last 10 games- .067/.263/.067, 8 BB, 11 K
Butera has managed 8 BB in his last 10 games, but when you have 2 singles in your last 30 at bats, it's hard to stay off of this list. His play isn't that concerning to me, though, as I've never expected him to have any role with the big league team since his acquisition in the Castillo trade.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
On to Queens
It's finally over. And after all that waiting, it's very disappointing. The Twins have agreed to trade Johan Santana to the Mets for 4 of the Mets' prospects: OF Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber. No Fernando Martinez. No Mike Pelfrey. No Ryan Church. I really like Gomez and Guerra in this deal, but those last two pitchers do not seem special to me at all. On the bright side, at least he didn't go to the Yankees, but I can still go watch Johan pitch in Shea while wearing my Twins' #57 jersey. Anyways, possibly more to come later, if I can recover from the shock of the lack of quality coming to Minnesota. (To be clear, I'm not angry or one of thos epeople calling for Bill Smith's job, I'm just disappointed in the return for Santana.)
Friday, January 4, 2008
Mets Rumors
Well, it certainly has been a while. With little news over the holidays and a lot of holiday things going on, we didn't have a chance to make any posts. And I personally haven't written in probably two months, as Twin #2 took over the reigns because I got very busy with schoolwork. However, with that over, you can expect sporadic postings amounting to a few each week until the season draws nearer.
Today I wanted to re-visit the Johan Santana issue since it has been a while and even a rehashing of where it stands would be useful. I've read the general feeling around the league is that he will be traded and that Bill Smith knows he "needs" to trade him. And I think most of us believe now that he should be traded, so that is a good sign. The problem is that the offers just aren't all that scintillating at this point. The Red Sox and Yankees haven't changed their original offers; in fact, the only possible change it seems is the Yankees considering removing Phillip Hughes from the deal.
The one new piece or news (or more accurately, the new rumor) circulating is that the Mets would offer any four of their prospects in a deal for Santana. Throughout the whole process, the Mets have certainly seemed the most interested in Santana and the ones willing to give up the most for him. But again, there was a problem with this situation, it being that the Mets didn't have much to offer. Still, if this rumor is true, which is never easy to decifer, it could be tempting, especially because Santana would wind up in the NL.
Just to look at a possibility, it could be something like Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Martinez is an 18-year old prospect who finished last year in Double-A. Although his stats are by no means great, scouts are touting him as a huge prospect, while still raw. Gomez is further along, as he played in the majors last year, but does not have as high of a ceiling. He is still young too, at age 21, and is as fast as they come. He played only 36 games in Triple-A before being promoted to the big leagues. Gomez might be able to fill centerfield for the Twins this year, and I would definitely be willing to count on him filling it in 2009.
Guerra is almost a pitching version of Martinez. He is only 18, pitching in high-A, and has only average stats. He isn't touted as highly as Martinez but many believe he will be very good. Mulvey, although not a great prospect, is one of the Mets' best pitching prospects. He pitched just one game in Triple-A last year, though, so he would definitely not be ready to step in this year. This is the major hang-up on this deal: after trading Santana (in this deal) and Garza, I would like to see the Twins pick up a major league-ready arm. The Mets don't really have that to offer, whereas the Red Sox have Lester and the Yankees have Hughes.
So let's continue to play the waiting game.
Today I wanted to re-visit the Johan Santana issue since it has been a while and even a rehashing of where it stands would be useful. I've read the general feeling around the league is that he will be traded and that Bill Smith knows he "needs" to trade him. And I think most of us believe now that he should be traded, so that is a good sign. The problem is that the offers just aren't all that scintillating at this point. The Red Sox and Yankees haven't changed their original offers; in fact, the only possible change it seems is the Yankees considering removing Phillip Hughes from the deal.
The one new piece or news (or more accurately, the new rumor) circulating is that the Mets would offer any four of their prospects in a deal for Santana. Throughout the whole process, the Mets have certainly seemed the most interested in Santana and the ones willing to give up the most for him. But again, there was a problem with this situation, it being that the Mets didn't have much to offer. Still, if this rumor is true, which is never easy to decifer, it could be tempting, especially because Santana would wind up in the NL.
Just to look at a possibility, it could be something like Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Martinez is an 18-year old prospect who finished last year in Double-A. Although his stats are by no means great, scouts are touting him as a huge prospect, while still raw. Gomez is further along, as he played in the majors last year, but does not have as high of a ceiling. He is still young too, at age 21, and is as fast as they come. He played only 36 games in Triple-A before being promoted to the big leagues. Gomez might be able to fill centerfield for the Twins this year, and I would definitely be willing to count on him filling it in 2009.
Guerra is almost a pitching version of Martinez. He is only 18, pitching in high-A, and has only average stats. He isn't touted as highly as Martinez but many believe he will be very good. Mulvey, although not a great prospect, is one of the Mets' best pitching prospects. He pitched just one game in Triple-A last year, though, so he would definitely not be ready to step in this year. This is the major hang-up on this deal: after trading Santana (in this deal) and Garza, I would like to see the Twins pick up a major league-ready arm. The Mets don't really have that to offer, whereas the Red Sox have Lester and the Yankees have Hughes.
So let's continue to play the waiting game.
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