Jeff Manship made his first Major League start yesterday and had a very respectable performance. He allowed a solo home run to Alexei Ramirez, but that was the only run he would give up. He left after five innings having thrown only eighty pitches. I guess that was the plan before the game, but with Brian Duensing pitching this afternoon I would have preferred they try to get more out of Manship. But, hey, it worked.
After Ramirez's fifth-inning homer, Michael Cuddyer answered immediately with his own solo shot. After Orlando Cabrera broke the tie with a sacrifice fly later in the game, Cuddyer would extend the lead with his second home run, putting the Twins up 3-1. That put Jesse Crain in line for the win, after he pitched 2 perfect innings in relief.
It wouldn't last, though, as Jose Mijares walked the only batter he faced on four pitches and Matt Guerrier followed by surrendering a game-tying longball to Gordon Beckham. He finished the inning without further damage and, after a scoreless bottom half, was replaced by Jon Rauch in the ninth inning. Just a few days ago that easily could have been Bobby Keppel--I think I like this acquisition.
Rauch gave up a single but emerged unscathed, giving the Twins an opportunity to avoid extras. And they did just that, as Jason Kubel and Brendan Harris singled, putting runners on the corners with one out. Carlos Gomez struck out and then Gardenhire sent in Jose Morales to pinch-hit for Alexi Casilla. He hit a sharp "single" (it would have been at least a double in any other situation) to score the winning run, giving Rauch his second victory in as many appearances for the Twins and the White Sox their 11th loss in their last 12 games at the Metrodome.
And, speaking of Rauch, Kevin Mulvey was essentially sent to the Diamondbacks as the player to be named later. I'm not sure why it was done in this roundabout way, rather than making him explicitly the player-to-be-named, but he's gone regardless. With Rauch under contract for next year, I think I like this deal significantly more than the trade for Carl Pavano. Of course, Yohan Pino could flame out and Mulvey could end up being a reliable #4 starter, because you can't ever really tell with prospects.
One last thing: am I the only one who thought Jermaine Dye could have caught the ball standing up on Scott Podsednik's diving catch of Brendan Harris' fly ball in the second inning?
Showing posts with label kevin mulvey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kevin mulvey. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Thursday, July 23, 2009
GM Analysis: Trades
On September 14, 2007, Twin #1 made the inaugural post on this blog. About 12 hours earlier, Terry Ryan had announced his resignation from the general manager position that he held since the early 1990s. The Twins announced that his successor would be his former right-hand man, assistant GM Bill Smith. In his first offseason, Smith guided the Twins through tough situations with Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. The team finished his first season at the helm in a tie for first place, but missed the playoffs when they lost the memorable one-game playoff against the White Sox. The following winter was much quieter than his first, with the biggest move being the signing of Joe Crede in late February. With the trade deadline fast approaching, I thought now would be a good time to take a more detailed look at Smith's (mostly underwhelming) work thus far.
November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.
November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.
January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.
August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.
So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.
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November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.
November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.
January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.
August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.
So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.
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Friday, July 17, 2009
Back to Blogging
I took the week off from blogging with the All-Star break going on for most of it. I would say nothing happened either, but that wouldn't be true. The Twins called up Alexi Casilla for his third shot with the club this season, with Matt Tolbert mercifully being sent back to AAA (I don't think any team wants a guy on their roster who can be most aptly described as a poor man's Nick Punto).
The Twins also called up Kevin Mulvey to replace Jose Morales and add a twelfth pitcher to the roster. A twelfth pitcher isn't a necessity, but I'd rather have that than a third catcher who wins the lottery more often than he gets to play. I'm not sure Mulvey is the right pitcher, though. Bill Smith pointed to his ability to pitch in long relief for why he was the choice; if I'm not mistaken, though, Minnesota already has three pitchers who fit that role very well in R.A. Dickey, Bobby Keppel, and Brian Duensing.
What the Twins really need is another late-inning arm, which is why I would have rather given Juan Morillo, Jesse Crain, or Rob Delaney a shot instead. Mulvey has value, but he is just overkill at this point in time. Obviously, none of these players are slam dunks, or that move would have been made. Morillo is still walking a lot of batters, but it's way down from last year in AAA (from 8.45 BB/9 to 5.21) and his strikeout rate is incredible (13.50 K/9). Additionally, he's holding opponents to a .195 batting average with a totally average BABIP of .301. All of that results in a 2.84 ERA, which is just .02 off his FIP of 2.86. So, after typing all that, I'm pretty convinced I want Morillo in the bigs; the only reason I'd think otherwise is if he wouldn't be able to be sent back down if he struggled. Anyone want to help me out on that?
Delaney, meanwhile, was recently promoted to AAA and has not been nearly as dominant as he was at AA, but is holding his own. His K:BB ratio is down from 40-to-6 to 17-to-9, resulting in easily his worst BB/9, K/9, and K/BB numbers in a few years. However, he's still holding opponents to a .234 average, but that's aided by a .233 BABIP. His ERA is probably a little bloated, though, due to his 1.21 HR/9 rate that's more than twice as high as at any stop in the minors since Ft. Myers in 2006, when he threw just 5 innings.
Crain is in the same camp as Morillo, having been demoted from the Twins and with similar peripherals. He's walked too many (7 in 14.1 IP), but he's got a good strikeout rate (10.67 K/9) and opponents are batting only .216 against him.
All in all, I don't mind Mulvey getting promoted because Crain and Morillo both already showed they aren't sure things, and Delaney hasn't been great thus far in AAA.
The Twins also called up Kevin Mulvey to replace Jose Morales and add a twelfth pitcher to the roster. A twelfth pitcher isn't a necessity, but I'd rather have that than a third catcher who wins the lottery more often than he gets to play. I'm not sure Mulvey is the right pitcher, though. Bill Smith pointed to his ability to pitch in long relief for why he was the choice; if I'm not mistaken, though, Minnesota already has three pitchers who fit that role very well in R.A. Dickey, Bobby Keppel, and Brian Duensing.
What the Twins really need is another late-inning arm, which is why I would have rather given Juan Morillo, Jesse Crain, or Rob Delaney a shot instead. Mulvey has value, but he is just overkill at this point in time. Obviously, none of these players are slam dunks, or that move would have been made. Morillo is still walking a lot of batters, but it's way down from last year in AAA (from 8.45 BB/9 to 5.21) and his strikeout rate is incredible (13.50 K/9). Additionally, he's holding opponents to a .195 batting average with a totally average BABIP of .301. All of that results in a 2.84 ERA, which is just .02 off his FIP of 2.86. So, after typing all that, I'm pretty convinced I want Morillo in the bigs; the only reason I'd think otherwise is if he wouldn't be able to be sent back down if he struggled. Anyone want to help me out on that?
Delaney, meanwhile, was recently promoted to AAA and has not been nearly as dominant as he was at AA, but is holding his own. His K:BB ratio is down from 40-to-6 to 17-to-9, resulting in easily his worst BB/9, K/9, and K/BB numbers in a few years. However, he's still holding opponents to a .234 average, but that's aided by a .233 BABIP. His ERA is probably a little bloated, though, due to his 1.21 HR/9 rate that's more than twice as high as at any stop in the minors since Ft. Myers in 2006, when he threw just 5 innings.
Crain is in the same camp as Morillo, having been demoted from the Twins and with similar peripherals. He's walked too many (7 in 14.1 IP), but he's got a good strikeout rate (10.67 K/9) and opponents are batting only .216 against him.
All in all, I don't mind Mulvey getting promoted because Crain and Morillo both already showed they aren't sure things, and Delaney hasn't been great thus far in AAA.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Top 15 Prospects
Here's my list of the top 15 prospects in the Twins' organization:
1. CF Ben Revere- 20 (A)
Revere was the Twins’ first round draft pick in 2007, and critics instantly panned the pick of the 5-9 outfielder as a cheap move when he signed for the lowest first-round bonus in years. So far, though, the choice has worked out in the Twins’ favor, whether motivated by money or not. Revere batted .325/.388/.461 with 21 stolen bases (out of 30 attempts) in 50 games for the rookie league GCL Twins after signing, and has put up video game numbers so far this season. In 27 games for Class A Beloit, Revere has hit .418/.468/.589 with a 13:10 K:BB ratio. Revere hasn’t walked much in his brief minor league career, but he’s only struck out 30 times in 332 career at bats. Also, for all the talk of his zero power, a .171 isolated power is nothing to sneeze at, especially for a 20-year old with all the other tools that Revere has. He does need to work on his base running, however, as he’s only 17-27 in stolen base attempts this season. Especially with his 6.28 speed over 60 yards, he should be stealing at a much higher percentage.
If he keeps performing like this, Revere will move quickly through the Twins’ system, but as a 20-year old in Class A, he still won’t be playing in the Metrodome. I could see the Twins promoting him to Fort Myers late in this season if he keeps playing so well at Beloit, but it’s more likely that they’ll stick to their general one-level-a-year rule.
2. RHP Deolis Guerra- 19 (A+)
Guerra came over to the Twins from the Mets in the Santana trade as the high-upside 18-year old minor leaguer. If the Twins had signed him, he would probably still be in EST and playing short-season ball now, but after playing in the FSL last year for the Mets and holding his own there, the Twins decided not to demote him and he started the season in Fort Myers. While his won-loss record looks pretty, he has not been very effective thus far in the season. He has a terrible 32:26 K:BB ratio in 55.1 innings and has given up a ton of fly balls (0.64 GO/FO ratio). The most disappointing thing about those numbers is the decline from last year in the same league. Of course, Guerra is still a 6-5 19-year old who is already in Class A Advanced and has the same fastball and great changeup that scouts loved before the season. It’s weird that much of the #2 prospect’s description was spent on negatives, but that’s because all I have to go on are the stats, which aren’t looking so good this year. With the Twins’ conservative ways, Guerra won’t be heading to New Britain anytime soon (which is unfortunate considering the proximity to my home) unless he truly dominates with Fort Myers.
3. LHP Tyler Robertson- 20 (A+)
Robertson was drafted out of high school as the Twins’ 3rd round pick in 2006. An injury in the Beloit rotation in 2007 gave him his first full season opportunity and he hasn’t looked back since. He dominated the Midwest League as a 19-year old last year with 123 strikeouts in 102.1 innings and a 1.85 GO/FO ratio. So far in Fort Myers, Robertson has picked up right where he left off in 2007. Even though his numbers have dropped across the board, as should be expected for a 20-year old getting his first taste of a new level, he’s been very good in the Fort Myers rotation thus far. He doesn’t have a blazing fastball, but he pairs his average fastball with a great hard slider and of course still has time to improve his fastball as well.
4. RHP Anthony Swarzak- 22 (AA)
After a strong season with Fort Myers in 2006, Swarzak was looking towards continuing his road to Minnesota in New Britain in 2007. However, after two bad starts there, the Twins’ 2nd round pick in 2004 was suspended for violating the league’s (non-performance enhancing) drug policy. Once he came back from the suspension, though, he proved that he was still among the Twins’ best pitching prospects. Swarzak has struck out around 8 batters per 9 innings the last two seasons, and this year so far he has bumped that up to almost a batter per inning. More importantly, he cut his BB/9 rate from 3.7 in 2006 to fewer than 3.0 in 2007 and 2008. Of course, Swarzak has always given up a ton of fly balls, and it has been even worse so far this year, which means that his 4.18 ERA might be a little lucky considering he’s only given up 4 homers in 56 innings. After a great start to the season, Swarzak has struggled lately, but he should still be in line for a promotion to Rochester as soon a spot opens up there.
5. C Wilson Ramos- 20 (A+)
Ramos, signed out of Venezuela in 2004, had a fine season for the Beloit Snappers in ’07, but jolted up prospect lists after his dominant performance in the Venezuelan winter league (I’d post stats if I could find them). The Twins moved him up to High Class A for 2008, and after a slow start he has started picking it up of late. A .236/.289/.421 isn’t very flashy or eye-popping, but it is very solid for a 20-year old catcher in the Florida State League, where his OPS is actually slightly above the league average without even adjusting for the fact that he is a catcher. However, he needs to get more selective at the plate, as his 13:50 BB:K ratio suggests. Baseball America ranked Ramos as the best defensive catcher in the Twins’ minor league system, and scouts rave about his defense as much as his offense. The fact that he’s only 9 for 28 throwing out runners this year disputes that fact somewhat, but I’m willing to trust the scouts who’ve watched him play many, many times over me who’s seen him play for exactly zero seconds, especially when it comes to defense. Ramos should spend the 2008 season in Fort Myers, and possibly even start there next year if he doesn’t get comfortable there this year; he’s still got plenty of time, so there’s no need to rush him unless his play absolutely merits it.
6. RHP Jeff Manship- 23 (A+)
The only reason that Manship is ranked this low is that, at 23 years of age, he is old for the league that he’s playing in. Based on performance alone, the Twins’ 2006 14th round pick out of Notre Dame would possibly be the #1 starter in the system. Manship has been a dominating ground-ball machine since joining the Twins’ system, garnering ground balls at about a 2 to 1 rate over his minor league career. His performance at every level has been exceptional as he has issued only one free pass for about every four strikeouts over the course of his career with an 8.3 K/9 rate. Manship’s ERA this season in Fort Myers dropped to 2.72 after his complete game shutout of Dunedin last night and the ground-ball machine still has yet to allow a home run this season. As soon as Swarzak moves up to Rochester or another spot opens up in New Britain, this college pitcher should move up as he has nothing left to prove at these lower levels.
7. 3B Luke Hughes- 23 (AA)
I had a lot of trouble figuring out where to rank this Twins’ farmhand, and there’s a pretty good chance I’ll end up regretting putting him this high if he turns out to be just another guy a little old for his league who mashes for a couple months after a mediocre minor league career, but he’s turned me into a believer. I simply can’t ignore the ridiculous .335/.407/.618 line he’s put up so far this year that is 37% better than average in the Eastern League, which, for comparison, is the just how far above average Justin Morneau was in his stint at AA New Britain (albeit at a younger age). Of course, I’m not suggesting that Hughes will become anything close to what Morneau is, but it gives an idea of exactly how well Hughes has been playing. Hughes is a versatile player who has played third, second, and all three outfield positions this year. Before this season, he had been primarily a second baseman, but in 2008 he has played 30 out of his 46 games at third. Hughes should be promoted to Rochester as soon as possible, as it’s time to find out if he is for real or just another flash in the pan.
8. RHP Kevin Mulvey- 23 (AAA)
Mulvey is the first prospect on the list to be close to actually helping the Twins, though he still probably won’t be called up anytime soon. The Twins already have an extra starter in Boof Bonser, and with the way he’s been pitching of late, Francisco Liriano is probably ahead of Mulvey if the need for another starter arises. Mulvey has been disappointing thus far in 2008, as his ground ball rate has shrunk and his walk rate has risen 50% from last season (when he pitched mainly in AA). His strikeout rate is very good this year, with 54 K in 61.1 innings, a significant increase from his 113 in 157.2 innings last year in the Mets’ organization. The increase in walk rate and decrease in ground ball rate are hopefully just attributable to his getting adjusted to the new level, and Mulvey still has a good shot of fulfilling his potential as a #3 or #4 starter, though that shot probably won’t come this year (at least as a starter).
9. SS Trevor Plouffe- 21 (AA)
The Twins’ first round pick in 2004 has made his way into a lot of discussions about the Twins’ future shortstop plans, but I’m not as high as him as others are despite his #9 ranking. His youth and decent play in a higher level get him ranked ahead of other, younger prospects like Deibinson Romero and Danny Valencia, but I just don’t think his ceiling is very high. To me, he has a good chance of playing in the majors, but does not have the potential of turning into anything more than an average player that someone like Romero has. So far in 2008, Plouffe has performed remarkably similarly to his play last season, which was also in AA. If he showed some improvement over last year, I would believe in his higher ceiling, but his .274/.326/.410 line is almost exactly the same as the .275/.335/.415 that he’s hitting this year. In addition, his plate discipline has improved only marginally (IsoD increased by 8 points), while his BB:K ratio has decreased slightly from 0.43 to 0.37. Of course, I’m focusing only on the negatives. The positive side is that Plouffe is a soon-to-be 22 year old shortstop who has held his own in AA for two years now, and has a very good chance to play with the Twins by the end of next year, though it may be as a backup or role player rather than starter.
10. 3B Deibinson (D.J.) Romero- 21 (A)
Romero is only three months younger than Plouffe, yet is two levels behind him; this is more of a credit to Plouffe than a knock on Romero. Romero, though, has put up excellent numbers thus far in his minor league career. He led the rookie-league Elizabethton Twins to a 50-18 record with his .316/.406/.506 hitting line. He began 2008 with Beloit, but got injured after playing in 17 games, which is too small of a sample to read anything into (though his .214/.242/.339 line was not very pretty). The driving force behind Romero’s breakout year at Elizabethton was his improved pitch selection and plate discipline. After sporting a 1:3 BB:K ratio and about a .065 isolated discipline in his first two minor league seasons, he cut his BB:K ratio to 1:1.4 and upped his IsoD to .080. Romero plays solid defense at third, and projects to be able to play it all the way to the majors if he makes it there. Right now, let’s just hope that he recovers from his injury so he can get back to the field and continue moving up the prospect list.
11. OF/1B Chris Parmelee- 20 (A)
12. OF Joe Benson- 20 (A)
13. 3B Danny Valencia- 23 (A+)
14. RHP Anthony Slama- 24 (A+)
15. OF Rene Tosoni- 21 (A+)
The MLB draft is Thursday at 2 PM, and I hope to have some sort of preview done by Thursday morning. Luckily for me, I'm sure no one reading this actually cares about the draft, so no one will be dissapointed if I don't do it (I'd be happy if someone actually scrolled down far enough to read this).
1. CF Ben Revere- 20 (A)
Revere was the Twins’ first round draft pick in 2007, and critics instantly panned the pick of the 5-9 outfielder as a cheap move when he signed for the lowest first-round bonus in years. So far, though, the choice has worked out in the Twins’ favor, whether motivated by money or not. Revere batted .325/.388/.461 with 21 stolen bases (out of 30 attempts) in 50 games for the rookie league GCL Twins after signing, and has put up video game numbers so far this season. In 27 games for Class A Beloit, Revere has hit .418/.468/.589 with a 13:10 K:BB ratio. Revere hasn’t walked much in his brief minor league career, but he’s only struck out 30 times in 332 career at bats. Also, for all the talk of his zero power, a .171 isolated power is nothing to sneeze at, especially for a 20-year old with all the other tools that Revere has. He does need to work on his base running, however, as he’s only 17-27 in stolen base attempts this season. Especially with his 6.28 speed over 60 yards, he should be stealing at a much higher percentage.
If he keeps performing like this, Revere will move quickly through the Twins’ system, but as a 20-year old in Class A, he still won’t be playing in the Metrodome. I could see the Twins promoting him to Fort Myers late in this season if he keeps playing so well at Beloit, but it’s more likely that they’ll stick to their general one-level-a-year rule.
2. RHP Deolis Guerra- 19 (A+)
Guerra came over to the Twins from the Mets in the Santana trade as the high-upside 18-year old minor leaguer. If the Twins had signed him, he would probably still be in EST and playing short-season ball now, but after playing in the FSL last year for the Mets and holding his own there, the Twins decided not to demote him and he started the season in Fort Myers. While his won-loss record looks pretty, he has not been very effective thus far in the season. He has a terrible 32:26 K:BB ratio in 55.1 innings and has given up a ton of fly balls (0.64 GO/FO ratio). The most disappointing thing about those numbers is the decline from last year in the same league. Of course, Guerra is still a 6-5 19-year old who is already in Class A Advanced and has the same fastball and great changeup that scouts loved before the season. It’s weird that much of the #2 prospect’s description was spent on negatives, but that’s because all I have to go on are the stats, which aren’t looking so good this year. With the Twins’ conservative ways, Guerra won’t be heading to New Britain anytime soon (which is unfortunate considering the proximity to my home) unless he truly dominates with Fort Myers.
3. LHP Tyler Robertson- 20 (A+)
Robertson was drafted out of high school as the Twins’ 3rd round pick in 2006. An injury in the Beloit rotation in 2007 gave him his first full season opportunity and he hasn’t looked back since. He dominated the Midwest League as a 19-year old last year with 123 strikeouts in 102.1 innings and a 1.85 GO/FO ratio. So far in Fort Myers, Robertson has picked up right where he left off in 2007. Even though his numbers have dropped across the board, as should be expected for a 20-year old getting his first taste of a new level, he’s been very good in the Fort Myers rotation thus far. He doesn’t have a blazing fastball, but he pairs his average fastball with a great hard slider and of course still has time to improve his fastball as well.
4. RHP Anthony Swarzak- 22 (AA)
After a strong season with Fort Myers in 2006, Swarzak was looking towards continuing his road to Minnesota in New Britain in 2007. However, after two bad starts there, the Twins’ 2nd round pick in 2004 was suspended for violating the league’s (non-performance enhancing) drug policy. Once he came back from the suspension, though, he proved that he was still among the Twins’ best pitching prospects. Swarzak has struck out around 8 batters per 9 innings the last two seasons, and this year so far he has bumped that up to almost a batter per inning. More importantly, he cut his BB/9 rate from 3.7 in 2006 to fewer than 3.0 in 2007 and 2008. Of course, Swarzak has always given up a ton of fly balls, and it has been even worse so far this year, which means that his 4.18 ERA might be a little lucky considering he’s only given up 4 homers in 56 innings. After a great start to the season, Swarzak has struggled lately, but he should still be in line for a promotion to Rochester as soon a spot opens up there.
5. C Wilson Ramos- 20 (A+)
Ramos, signed out of Venezuela in 2004, had a fine season for the Beloit Snappers in ’07, but jolted up prospect lists after his dominant performance in the Venezuelan winter league (I’d post stats if I could find them). The Twins moved him up to High Class A for 2008, and after a slow start he has started picking it up of late. A .236/.289/.421 isn’t very flashy or eye-popping, but it is very solid for a 20-year old catcher in the Florida State League, where his OPS is actually slightly above the league average without even adjusting for the fact that he is a catcher. However, he needs to get more selective at the plate, as his 13:50 BB:K ratio suggests. Baseball America ranked Ramos as the best defensive catcher in the Twins’ minor league system, and scouts rave about his defense as much as his offense. The fact that he’s only 9 for 28 throwing out runners this year disputes that fact somewhat, but I’m willing to trust the scouts who’ve watched him play many, many times over me who’s seen him play for exactly zero seconds, especially when it comes to defense. Ramos should spend the 2008 season in Fort Myers, and possibly even start there next year if he doesn’t get comfortable there this year; he’s still got plenty of time, so there’s no need to rush him unless his play absolutely merits it.
6. RHP Jeff Manship- 23 (A+)
The only reason that Manship is ranked this low is that, at 23 years of age, he is old for the league that he’s playing in. Based on performance alone, the Twins’ 2006 14th round pick out of Notre Dame would possibly be the #1 starter in the system. Manship has been a dominating ground-ball machine since joining the Twins’ system, garnering ground balls at about a 2 to 1 rate over his minor league career. His performance at every level has been exceptional as he has issued only one free pass for about every four strikeouts over the course of his career with an 8.3 K/9 rate. Manship’s ERA this season in Fort Myers dropped to 2.72 after his complete game shutout of Dunedin last night and the ground-ball machine still has yet to allow a home run this season. As soon as Swarzak moves up to Rochester or another spot opens up in New Britain, this college pitcher should move up as he has nothing left to prove at these lower levels.
7. 3B Luke Hughes- 23 (AA)
I had a lot of trouble figuring out where to rank this Twins’ farmhand, and there’s a pretty good chance I’ll end up regretting putting him this high if he turns out to be just another guy a little old for his league who mashes for a couple months after a mediocre minor league career, but he’s turned me into a believer. I simply can’t ignore the ridiculous .335/.407/.618 line he’s put up so far this year that is 37% better than average in the Eastern League, which, for comparison, is the just how far above average Justin Morneau was in his stint at AA New Britain (albeit at a younger age). Of course, I’m not suggesting that Hughes will become anything close to what Morneau is, but it gives an idea of exactly how well Hughes has been playing. Hughes is a versatile player who has played third, second, and all three outfield positions this year. Before this season, he had been primarily a second baseman, but in 2008 he has played 30 out of his 46 games at third. Hughes should be promoted to Rochester as soon as possible, as it’s time to find out if he is for real or just another flash in the pan.
8. RHP Kevin Mulvey- 23 (AAA)
Mulvey is the first prospect on the list to be close to actually helping the Twins, though he still probably won’t be called up anytime soon. The Twins already have an extra starter in Boof Bonser, and with the way he’s been pitching of late, Francisco Liriano is probably ahead of Mulvey if the need for another starter arises. Mulvey has been disappointing thus far in 2008, as his ground ball rate has shrunk and his walk rate has risen 50% from last season (when he pitched mainly in AA). His strikeout rate is very good this year, with 54 K in 61.1 innings, a significant increase from his 113 in 157.2 innings last year in the Mets’ organization. The increase in walk rate and decrease in ground ball rate are hopefully just attributable to his getting adjusted to the new level, and Mulvey still has a good shot of fulfilling his potential as a #3 or #4 starter, though that shot probably won’t come this year (at least as a starter).
9. SS Trevor Plouffe- 21 (AA)
The Twins’ first round pick in 2004 has made his way into a lot of discussions about the Twins’ future shortstop plans, but I’m not as high as him as others are despite his #9 ranking. His youth and decent play in a higher level get him ranked ahead of other, younger prospects like Deibinson Romero and Danny Valencia, but I just don’t think his ceiling is very high. To me, he has a good chance of playing in the majors, but does not have the potential of turning into anything more than an average player that someone like Romero has. So far in 2008, Plouffe has performed remarkably similarly to his play last season, which was also in AA. If he showed some improvement over last year, I would believe in his higher ceiling, but his .274/.326/.410 line is almost exactly the same as the .275/.335/.415 that he’s hitting this year. In addition, his plate discipline has improved only marginally (IsoD increased by 8 points), while his BB:K ratio has decreased slightly from 0.43 to 0.37. Of course, I’m focusing only on the negatives. The positive side is that Plouffe is a soon-to-be 22 year old shortstop who has held his own in AA for two years now, and has a very good chance to play with the Twins by the end of next year, though it may be as a backup or role player rather than starter.
10. 3B Deibinson (D.J.) Romero- 21 (A)
Romero is only three months younger than Plouffe, yet is two levels behind him; this is more of a credit to Plouffe than a knock on Romero. Romero, though, has put up excellent numbers thus far in his minor league career. He led the rookie-league Elizabethton Twins to a 50-18 record with his .316/.406/.506 hitting line. He began 2008 with Beloit, but got injured after playing in 17 games, which is too small of a sample to read anything into (though his .214/.242/.339 line was not very pretty). The driving force behind Romero’s breakout year at Elizabethton was his improved pitch selection and plate discipline. After sporting a 1:3 BB:K ratio and about a .065 isolated discipline in his first two minor league seasons, he cut his BB:K ratio to 1:1.4 and upped his IsoD to .080. Romero plays solid defense at third, and projects to be able to play it all the way to the majors if he makes it there. Right now, let’s just hope that he recovers from his injury so he can get back to the field and continue moving up the prospect list.
11. OF/1B Chris Parmelee- 20 (A)
12. OF Joe Benson- 20 (A)
13. 3B Danny Valencia- 23 (A+)
14. RHP Anthony Slama- 24 (A+)
15. OF Rene Tosoni- 21 (A+)
The MLB draft is Thursday at 2 PM, and I hope to have some sort of preview done by Thursday morning. Luckily for me, I'm sure no one reading this actually cares about the draft, so no one will be dissapointed if I don't do it (I'd be happy if someone actually scrolled down far enough to read this).
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
On to Queens
It's finally over. And after all that waiting, it's very disappointing. The Twins have agreed to trade Johan Santana to the Mets for 4 of the Mets' prospects: OF Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber. No Fernando Martinez. No Mike Pelfrey. No Ryan Church. I really like Gomez and Guerra in this deal, but those last two pitchers do not seem special to me at all. On the bright side, at least he didn't go to the Yankees, but I can still go watch Johan pitch in Shea while wearing my Twins' #57 jersey. Anyways, possibly more to come later, if I can recover from the shock of the lack of quality coming to Minnesota. (To be clear, I'm not angry or one of thos epeople calling for Bill Smith's job, I'm just disappointed in the return for Santana.)
Friday, January 4, 2008
Mets Rumors
Well, it certainly has been a while. With little news over the holidays and a lot of holiday things going on, we didn't have a chance to make any posts. And I personally haven't written in probably two months, as Twin #2 took over the reigns because I got very busy with schoolwork. However, with that over, you can expect sporadic postings amounting to a few each week until the season draws nearer.
Today I wanted to re-visit the Johan Santana issue since it has been a while and even a rehashing of where it stands would be useful. I've read the general feeling around the league is that he will be traded and that Bill Smith knows he "needs" to trade him. And I think most of us believe now that he should be traded, so that is a good sign. The problem is that the offers just aren't all that scintillating at this point. The Red Sox and Yankees haven't changed their original offers; in fact, the only possible change it seems is the Yankees considering removing Phillip Hughes from the deal.
The one new piece or news (or more accurately, the new rumor) circulating is that the Mets would offer any four of their prospects in a deal for Santana. Throughout the whole process, the Mets have certainly seemed the most interested in Santana and the ones willing to give up the most for him. But again, there was a problem with this situation, it being that the Mets didn't have much to offer. Still, if this rumor is true, which is never easy to decifer, it could be tempting, especially because Santana would wind up in the NL.
Just to look at a possibility, it could be something like Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Martinez is an 18-year old prospect who finished last year in Double-A. Although his stats are by no means great, scouts are touting him as a huge prospect, while still raw. Gomez is further along, as he played in the majors last year, but does not have as high of a ceiling. He is still young too, at age 21, and is as fast as they come. He played only 36 games in Triple-A before being promoted to the big leagues. Gomez might be able to fill centerfield for the Twins this year, and I would definitely be willing to count on him filling it in 2009.
Guerra is almost a pitching version of Martinez. He is only 18, pitching in high-A, and has only average stats. He isn't touted as highly as Martinez but many believe he will be very good. Mulvey, although not a great prospect, is one of the Mets' best pitching prospects. He pitched just one game in Triple-A last year, though, so he would definitely not be ready to step in this year. This is the major hang-up on this deal: after trading Santana (in this deal) and Garza, I would like to see the Twins pick up a major league-ready arm. The Mets don't really have that to offer, whereas the Red Sox have Lester and the Yankees have Hughes.
So let's continue to play the waiting game.
Today I wanted to re-visit the Johan Santana issue since it has been a while and even a rehashing of where it stands would be useful. I've read the general feeling around the league is that he will be traded and that Bill Smith knows he "needs" to trade him. And I think most of us believe now that he should be traded, so that is a good sign. The problem is that the offers just aren't all that scintillating at this point. The Red Sox and Yankees haven't changed their original offers; in fact, the only possible change it seems is the Yankees considering removing Phillip Hughes from the deal.
The one new piece or news (or more accurately, the new rumor) circulating is that the Mets would offer any four of their prospects in a deal for Santana. Throughout the whole process, the Mets have certainly seemed the most interested in Santana and the ones willing to give up the most for him. But again, there was a problem with this situation, it being that the Mets didn't have much to offer. Still, if this rumor is true, which is never easy to decifer, it could be tempting, especially because Santana would wind up in the NL.
Just to look at a possibility, it could be something like Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Martinez is an 18-year old prospect who finished last year in Double-A. Although his stats are by no means great, scouts are touting him as a huge prospect, while still raw. Gomez is further along, as he played in the majors last year, but does not have as high of a ceiling. He is still young too, at age 21, and is as fast as they come. He played only 36 games in Triple-A before being promoted to the big leagues. Gomez might be able to fill centerfield for the Twins this year, and I would definitely be willing to count on him filling it in 2009.
Guerra is almost a pitching version of Martinez. He is only 18, pitching in high-A, and has only average stats. He isn't touted as highly as Martinez but many believe he will be very good. Mulvey, although not a great prospect, is one of the Mets' best pitching prospects. He pitched just one game in Triple-A last year, though, so he would definitely not be ready to step in this year. This is the major hang-up on this deal: after trading Santana (in this deal) and Garza, I would like to see the Twins pick up a major league-ready arm. The Mets don't really have that to offer, whereas the Red Sox have Lester and the Yankees have Hughes.
So let's continue to play the waiting game.
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