GM Analysis: Trades

On September 14, 2007, Twin #1 made the inaugural post on this blog. About 12 hours earlier, Terry Ryan had announced his resignation from the general manager position that he held since the early 1990s. The Twins announced that his successor would be his former right-hand man, assistant GM Bill Smith. In his first offseason, Smith guided the Twins through tough situations with Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. The team finished his first season at the helm in a tie for first place, but missed the playoffs when they lost the memorable one-game playoff against the White Sox. The following winter was much quieter than his first, with the biggest move being the signing of Joe Crede in late February. With the trade deadline fast approaching, I thought now would be a good time to take a more detailed look at Smith's (mostly underwhelming) work thus far.

November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.

November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.

January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.

August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.

So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.

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(Way too) Early Cy Young Awards

With the Twins game in another rain delay, I realized I don't want to have to wait for it to end to do today's entry, as it could get late and I have some work to do. Therefore, I decided to focus on another game that happened today between the Mets and the Phillies. Johan Santana stayed red hot, pitching 7 innings and allowing only 5 baserunners and no runs. He also struck out ten. So far this season, he's 4-1 with a 0.91 WHIP and ERA and 54 strikeouts in 39.2 innings. That's good for a rate of 12.25 K/9 and 4.5 K/BB, in addition to a measly .168 batting average against. If not for the Mets' paltry 12 runs scored in his six starts, he could easily be 6-0 already.

6-0? Well, there is somebody who is 6-0... Zack Greinke. His fast start has been much more heralded (and with good reason), but Santana is not far behind. The two are clearly the top choices if anybody (as I am) were foolish enough to talk about a Cy Young award in early May. Greinke, for the year, has a 0.40 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, 54 strikeouts in 45 innings, and 3 complete games and 2 shutouts. His K/9 is 10.8, his BB/9 a slim 1.6, and his K/BB 6.75, while opponents are hitting .189 against him. In essence, both pitchers have turned every opposing hitter into Alexi Casilla circa 2009. Sorry, but I couldn't resist another jab at the poor guy.

My point is simply that these guys have both been pitching out of this world and, at this point, are head and shoulders above anybody else in their respective leagues. Both of them have a good shot at earning the Cy Young honor when it actually counts at the end of the year.

[Edit, 5/7/09, 12:30 PM: These two certainly have been spectacular, but there is one more pitcher who I feel deserved to be mention, rather than just saying there's no one close: Dan Haren. He's got a 1.47 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, 47 strikeouts against 7 walks, and a .167 opponent average in 43 innings. He had even worse support than Santana, though, as the D-Backs scored just 1 run in his first three starts. He lost all three and thus is only 3-3 on the season. I just didn't feel I was being fair if I didn't mention Haren.]

Sorry for the lack of Twins writing of late, and for the shorter entries in general, but it's finals time so this is all we can muster. Twin #2 finishes classes this week, and I'll be done at the end of next week, at which point things will pick right back up. There will definitely still be posts in the interim, though, so be sure to keep checking in!

A busy two days

Well, the Twins have certainly had a lot going on over the past thirty-six hours. They've seemingly snapped out of a funk with two big wins against the Angels. Friday's game was very exciting, as the Twins rallied from a five-run deficit by scoring seven runs in the eighth. Of course, it was capped off by Jason Kubel's grand slam which also gave him the cycle. Kubel's slam was huge, as it came on the heels of yet another bullpen collapse. In losing five of their previous six games, the Minnesota bullpen had allowed 21 runs in 20 innings. That number was up to 26 runs in 21 2/3 innings, including 18 in their last 9 2/3, by the time Kubel stepped to the plate in the eighth inning on Friday. Fortunately, Kubel delivered the biggest pick-me-up possible. In the next half-inning, Joe Nathan kept it rolling with a perfect frame to get his second save.

And last night the Twins, Kubel especially, went right back at it. Kevin Slowey had a good outing for the first time this year, the bullpen had a scoreless outing, and the offense scored nine runs. Kubel drove in two of those and scored three of them, in addition to having his second-straight four-hit game. How's 8-10 with 5 runs, 7 RBIs, and 4 extra base hits sound for a two-game stretch? Delmon Young also had a nice game, picking up 3 RBIs, including a 2-out bases-loaded single. Oh, and he and Carlos Gomez walked in the same inning (the 5th) in this game. Mark your calendars, because that won't happen again for a long time!

With the bullpen struggling so much, the organization obviously felt they needed to make a change, which they did on Friday when they designated Phillip Humber for assignment. This was in order to make room for another reliever, Juan Morillo, who the Twins claimed from the Rockies after he was DFA'd. Now we'll have to see if Humber, who was sporting a 12.46 ERA, makes it through waivers and to AAA-Rochester. If not, one of the four pieces in the Johan Santana deal will have already been lost without compensation.

Speaking of which, Santana continued his torrid start to 2009 with another amazing performance. This time: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K. And yet again, he needed every ounce to get the win, as the Mets' offense provided him a sole run of support. His ERA now stands at 0.46, which explains how he has 2 wins despite the total of 4 runs the Mets have scored in his three starts.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is Chien-Ming Wang, who started for the Yankees yesterday in their 22-4 loss! He's now given up at least 7 earned runs in each of his starts, hasn't made it past the fourth inning in any of them, and has an ERA of 34.50. Who knew that when he gave up 7 runs in 3 2/3 innings in his first start, it would still easily be his best start of the year at this point? Back to the demolition the Yankees experienced Saturday, though. There's a lot of things to be said, but this post is getting long and I'm sure it will be talked about plenty. Just look across the box scores for Saturday, though, and check how many teams had 13 hits. The answer: two. That's how many extra base hits the Indians had.

Double Play Delmon

Back-to-back bad losses to the White Sox is never something that gets you in a good mood. This one started well enough, with a homer by Delmon Young in the second inning, but it was only downhill from there. The Twins had only three hits and four baserunners through the first eight innings, which caused me to get sidetracked with a magazine I was reading before I noticed the bases were loaded with no outs in the ninth inning! I was subdued as quickly as I'd gotten excited, though, after Joe Crede struck out and Young grounded into a double play. Immediately before his at-bat, I thought to myself, "And now we've got Double Play Delmon up with the double play perfectly aligned." He obliged.

But, I went to the effort to see if the quick-triggered moniker was accurate. Turns out, Young led the American League in 2007 in GDP with 23, but was tied for 13th last year with 19. So... all in all, I'd say it's fair, but there's an argument against it.

That's the fourth time in their first seven games that the Twins have scored one or fewer runs. Shockingly, they've lost all of them, and won their other three games in which they've scored 6+ runs. It's no secret: if you don't put up multiple runs in a game, it makes it very difficult to win. This time it was Nick Blackburn taking the loss despite a quality start.

A few other non-Twins notes:

• Johan Santana pitched a gem but wound up on the losing end of the game thanks to two unearned runs. His line: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K. His adversary, Josh Johnson, did him one better though: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K.
• Cleveland finally picked up a victory in 2009, beating the Blue Jays 8-4. The Nationals are now the only winless team remaining.
• This is something a lot of us have been hoping to hear from Ron Gardenhire, but in this case it came from Jerry Manuel: "We're not necessarrily identifying saves--we're indentifying wins and losses." Click to read more quotes you wish Gardenhire would say regarding bringing in Joe Nathan in close, non-save situations.

If that's not worth $150M, nothing is.

I know the Twins are in the middle of their second to last game of the regular season, and are holding a 1/2 game lead over the White Sox. But there's something unrelated to the Twins that I need to write about.

On Tuesday, Johan Santana threw 125 pitches and picked up the win to help the Mets in their hunt for a playoff spot. Despite that, the highest pitch total of his career, Santana was called upon to pitch today, Saturday, on three days rest. I checked into the game in the fourth, and saw Santana had allowed only one hit, one walk, and zero runs; the Mets led 1-0. I thought to myself that it would be a fantastic outing if Santana were to give the Mets six shutout innings, the kind of thing a special pitcher would do. I kept Gameday open after that and checked it periodically.

Upon checking in during the bottom of the sixth inning, I saw Santana had thrown 88 pitches and figured he was done. Six innings, zero runs, exactly what I had thought would be an excellent outing. The seventh inning started and he came back out, which was mildly surprising to me. A quick inning, and his pitch total moved up to 97. Bottom of the seventh inning comes, with Santana due to bat second. No doubt they bring in a pinch hitter. As you probably know, they don't. With that, it's obvious Jerry Manuel is planning to have him pitch the eighth-- I'm shocked, to say the least.

One pitch, one out in the eighth. Two more pitches, another out. A four-pitch strikeout, and he's through the eighth. Still, the Mets are up just 2-0. 104 pitches, and you've got to figure Manuel trusts someone in that bullpen enough to pull Santana. But, after a scoreless bottom of the inning, Santana trots back out to the mound. Gets a strikeout, then Josh Willingham doubles to deep left center. Finally, he's done, right?

No. On three straight changeups, Santana fans Dan Uggla. Then he gets Cody Ross to flyout to the warning track in left field. Game over. Johan Santana's final line: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 0 R, 117 pitches. A 3-hit complete game shutout on three days rest after throwing a career high number of pitches in his last outing. And, in case you forgot, it was all with the Mets' season on the line.

And, if you think it's all for nought if the Mets don't make the playoffs, you're wrong. With rumors that Cliff Lee won't start Sunday, Santana may have clinched the MLB ERA title, moving his down to 2.53, just below Lee's 2.54. Hey, he earned it with those nine innings. And he needed all of them too.

Johan Santana

So he's not on the Twins anymore, but I still have a soft spot for him. I check to see how he does in each start and I'm certainly rooting for him to continue his dominance. But yesterday, I came across an interesting story on ESPN.com by Buster Olney; it was an insider article, so I couldn't read most of it, but the premise was that his velocity and overall stuff was way down from what it was with the Twins.

On the surface, he is doing pretty well this year. He's 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA. While not the best in the league, those numbers are good, and Santana historically comes on in the second half of the season. But going a little deeper, it may not be as good. His K/BB and K/9 are way down and his H/9 is way up. Here are his worst previous performances in each category (since 2004 when he became a full-fledged starter), his averages from 2004-2007, and this year's stats:

K/BB: 4.52, 4.96, 3.87
K/9: 9.25, 9.70, 7.79
H/9: 7.52, 6.95, 8.60

In each case, he is nowhere near his averages and, in fact, not even close to his worst season thus far. It's not too far into the season and Santana does normally come on strong in the second half, but I would definitely be worried if I were a Mets fan. Combine this year's start with last year's finish and I'd get even more concerned. Even if he continues to produce at this level, which is good for a normal pitcher, there is no way he is worth all that money. For what he's being paid, they really need Santana to return to the form that he showed from 2004 to 2007.

A few other stats that are way behind even his career worsts: OBP against, SLG against, and WHIP. .292 versus .273, .434 versus .405, and 1.18 versus 1.07. The one positive is that his walk rate has remained about the same. While I consider myself a Santana fan, and I'd like to see him return to his former self, there would be some relief in seeing him decline. It's almost like a win-win situation. If he does well, I'll be happy because I like him as a player, but if he does poorly, I'll be happy the Twins got what they did for him.

Time will tell. Perhaps I'll end up looking back at this post (and Buster Olney's article) as being completely ridiculous. We'll just have to wait and see.

Johan Beats the Nats

Yesterday I went to the Mets-Nationals game here in D.C. Johan pitched well and got the win against the Nats. He also smashed two line drive doubles and drew a walk. The new stadium was beautiful, and I got my first taste of a "Nats dog"; it tasted exactly like a regular hot dog. I also got one of those mini-batting helmet cups of ice cream, but for some reason they only had Twins' batting helmets. Anyways, I would write more, but I have to get back to work on my term paper (1 page down, 9 to go, and no I will not be sleeping tonight).

The Contract

Well, I guess Johan Santana is no longer a Twin (notice his name is not in bold right there), but that doesn't mean I will stop writing about him. Although his new contract is normally stated as a 7 year, $157 million deal, there are plenty of nuances to it.

• The option for the year 2014, which is for $25 million, can become a player option rather than a club option if one of a number of clauses is fulfilled, including finishing top 3 in Cy Young voting three times. If the option becomes Santana's, he won't receive the $5.5 million buyout if he rejects it.
• There are many provisions for which he could earn a couple hundred thousand dollars each, with Cy Young being the most (as much as $1.5 million). He could also get $100,000 for winning the Silver Slugger! I didn't realize they gave Silver Slugger awards to pitchers, but I think Santana has a good shot to win that one.
• And a few real nuances of the deal: Santana gets a hotel suite when the Mets travel and also a 15-person luxury suite for each Mets home game this year. I don't know if they include things like this in contracts a lot, but I found it pretty interesting!

So, basically, it looks like Santana is in for a pretty enjoyable seven years.

Reaction Around the Nation

What people are saying about the Santana trade around the country:

-Aaron Gleeman, AaronGleeman.com: "Trading the best pitcher in baseball without getting the Mets' top prospect in return is disappointing...In poker terms, Smith slow-played a big hand and ended up dragging in less than the maximum pot."

-Jayson Stark, ESPN.com: "But what they did Tuesday was simple: They did what they had to do. If their option had been to take the Mets' offer or climb in a time zone and ride back to December, they'd have chosen that time machine."

-Jim Callis, Baseball America: "Santana is the best pitcher in the game. And Smith didn’t get enough for him."

-Dave Sheinen, Washington Post: "Twins General Manager Bill Smith is certain to be questioned about the quality of the package he got in return for Santana, who will turn 29 in March, and about whether he may have waited too long to make a deal."

-Bob Nightengale, USA Today: "The Mets, ridiculed in New York for inactivity since their season-ending collapse last season, won the biggest prize of the winter."

-Nate Silver, Baseball Prospectus: "And it’s hard to think of another permutation of team and player that does more to improve a team’s chances of reaching the playoffs. Considering that the Mets managed to achieve this without giving up a single top-tier prospect, this is a happy day for Mets fans."

-Nick Coleman, Minneapolis Star Tribune: "The Twins' best pitcher -- and one of the best in baseball -- was traded to the Mets for four stiffs no fifth-grader heard of before."

-Mike Vaccaro, New York Post: "Today you [Mets fans] are allowed to rejoice. You are allowed to pinch yourself. You are allowed to start dreaming summer dreams."

-Ronald Blum, Miami Herald: "What originally appeared to be a bidding war for Santana early in the offseason turned into something more akin to a negotiation of attrition in which first the Yankees and then the Red Sox appeared to lose interest and decide they'd rather hold onto their top prospects."

-Bob Cook, MSNBC: "Acquiring Santana for four players that may or may not make a major-league impact— for now, the young quartet is “may not” — is going to have a similar impact on the weak NL that the Boston Celtics acquiring Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen had in the weak NBA Eastern Conference."

-Greg Couch, Chicago Sun-Times: "The Mets traded a bunch of prospects to Minnesota for Santana... The thing is, this trade kills the Cubs. Kills them."

On to Queens

It's finally over. And after all that waiting, it's very disappointing. The Twins have agreed to trade Johan Santana to the Mets for 4 of the Mets' prospects: OF Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber. No Fernando Martinez. No Mike Pelfrey. No Ryan Church. I really like Gomez and Guerra in this deal, but those last two pitchers do not seem special to me at all. On the bright side, at least he didn't go to the Yankees, but I can still go watch Johan pitch in Shea while wearing my Twins' #57 jersey. Anyways, possibly more to come later, if I can recover from the shock of the lack of quality coming to Minnesota. (To be clear, I'm not angry or one of thos epeople calling for Bill Smith's job, I'm just disappointed in the return for Santana.)

Santana Rumblings

What? Johan Santana trade rumors?! I haven't seen any of those lately! (Note sarcasm). Reports now indicate that the Twins will be making a decision in the next few days, although we've certainly heard similar things about eighty-seven times already this offseason. According to ESPN.com, the Twins have asked for final and best offers from the teams interested in Santana. Unfortunately, best offers may not be much with the Yankees seemingly becoming less interested every hour and the Red Sox taking Jon Lester off the table (even if I wasn't all that high on him in the first place).

By dragging the talks on for a duration of time equal to 1/54th of my entire life, Bill Smith has removed any fun that I originally had scouring the internet for rumors about what might happen. Now, I don't fault him for this, as obviously he is trying to do what's best for the organization, but I just have to say that, rather than excitement or depression I will simply be feeling relieved when Santana is finally dealt. That is, of course, assuming he's not traded for something like Phil Hughes, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, and Joba Chamberlain, or, on the other hand, Coco Crisp and J.D. Drew.

Mets Rumors

Well, it certainly has been a while. With little news over the holidays and a lot of holiday things going on, we didn't have a chance to make any posts. And I personally haven't written in probably two months, as Twin #2 took over the reigns because I got very busy with schoolwork. However, with that over, you can expect sporadic postings amounting to a few each week until the season draws nearer.

Today I wanted to re-visit the Johan Santana issue since it has been a while and even a rehashing of where it stands would be useful. I've read the general feeling around the league is that he will be traded and that Bill Smith knows he "needs" to trade him. And I think most of us believe now that he should be traded, so that is a good sign. The problem is that the offers just aren't all that scintillating at this point. The Red Sox and Yankees haven't changed their original offers; in fact, the only possible change it seems is the Yankees considering removing Phillip Hughes from the deal.

The one new piece or news (or more accurately, the new rumor) circulating is that the Mets would offer any four of their prospects in a deal for Santana. Throughout the whole process, the Mets have certainly seemed the most interested in Santana and the ones willing to give up the most for him. But again, there was a problem with this situation, it being that the Mets didn't have much to offer. Still, if this rumor is true, which is never easy to decifer, it could be tempting, especially because Santana would wind up in the NL.

Just to look at a possibility, it could be something like Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Martinez is an 18-year old prospect who finished last year in Double-A. Although his stats are by no means great, scouts are touting him as a huge prospect, while still raw. Gomez is further along, as he played in the majors last year, but does not have as high of a ceiling. He is still young too, at age 21, and is as fast as they come. He played only 36 games in Triple-A before being promoted to the big leagues. Gomez might be able to fill centerfield for the Twins this year, and I would definitely be willing to count on him filling it in 2009.

Guerra is almost a pitching version of Martinez. He is only 18, pitching in high-A, and has only average stats. He isn't touted as highly as Martinez but many believe he will be very good. Mulvey, although not a great prospect, is one of the Mets' best pitching prospects. He pitched just one game in Triple-A last year, though, so he would definitely not be ready to step in this year. This is the major hang-up on this deal: after trading Santana (in this deal) and Garza, I would like to see the Twins pick up a major league-ready arm. The Mets don't really have that to offer, whereas the Red Sox have Lester and the Yankees have Hughes.

So let's continue to play the waiting game.

Get Ned Colletti on the Phone

Please, Bill Smith, talk to the Dodgers. If they are willing to pay Johan, then I see a great trade developing there. The Dodgers just signed Andruw Jones to a 2 year, $36 million deal, which gives them four outfielders: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones. The Dodgers were shopping Kemp before they got Jones, so now he is most certainly available. Apparently, they don't like his attitude, but for a guy who has put up the numbers he has, I don't care. Of course, I'm assuming he can play at least an adequate centerfield. I really have no idea how good his defense is, but I know he's played some center in the majors, so it's certainly a possibility. The Dodgers also have Andy LaRoche, a 3rd base prospect with great power potential. For some reason, the Dodgers are nonetheless looking for a 3rd basemen (I heard maybe because of back problems????), so he seems to be available as well. There we go: 2 huge holes, plugged by 2 ML-ready guys with a lot of POWER potential, something the Twins have been missing for far too long. I'm drooling over this deal already...

Rampant Speculation

The title of the post says it all. I know I haven't been posting much for this being such an important moment in the Twins' offseason, but things change so quickly that it isn't really worth it. One moment a deal is reported to be done, the next moment the two teams say that they haven't even talked. Just go look at all the Santana trade rumors on mlbtraderumors.com (a great site for baseball rumors by the way). 22 updates in one day! Anyways, with a seeming period of quiet right now, I'll make just a couple quick observations. I'm warming up to the Red Sox supposed 5 for 1 deal (Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson/Kalish, or something of the like), but I'd still like to see the Twins get more high-end prospects. With Miguel Cabrera off the market, I would love to see the Angels and/or Dodgers get involved. They both have top prospects that are better fits for the Twins' needs. Apparently, the Rangers inquired about Santana, but did not really pursue it. I don't think they have anything really to offer the Twins.

As a final note, Chris Basak was outrighted to the minors. I've been saying that they needed to take him off the 40-man roster, and they finally did. Tomorrow is the Rule V draft. I'm not sure if the Twins are planning to take anyone, and personally I'm more worried about them losing a guy like Yohan Pino or Brock Peterson in the draft.

Time to Deal

With reports coming out that Santana will not waive his no-trade clause during the season or for a team other than the Yankees or Red Sox, I think it's time for Bill Smith to make a move so that we can move on. Pick which available package sounds best, Ellsbury/Lowrie/prospect from Red Sox or Hughes/Cabrera/prospect, and get the deal done today. At this point, I don't even know which deal I would choose. Each time I read an argument for 1 of the trades, I agree with it, but then I'll see someone argue for the other one, and I'll agree with that as well. Both of these are far less than I expected the Twins to get at the beginning of trade negotiations, but after turning my life over to the computer and Santana trade rumors for the past 4 or 5 days, I'm just ready for it to end. I'm disappointed that this is all that's out there and that Santana would come out with these demands right while the Twins are trying to trade him. I don't know what to think anymore; my brain is pretty much on Twins overload, and I hope when I wake up tomorrow, a deal is done so that I can get my life back.

Quick Santana Update

I've been following the Johan Santana trade rumors almost 24/7 the past couple days (though I did manage to make it to Georgetown's 61-49 victory in the Battle of the Jesuits against Fairfield). Sorry I haven't posted anything, but there is just so much going on, I don't know what specifically to post about.

At this point, I would be happy accepting pitching prospect Phillip Hughes, centerfielder Melky Cabrera, outfield prospect Austin Jackson, and shortstop prospect Alberto Gonzalez from the Yankees, but I'm not sure they're offering that much. Reports right now are that they're offering Hughes, Cabrera, and a prospect not named Chamberlain, Kennedy, Tabata, or Horne. There were also some more talks with the Red Sox at some point today. According to Buster Olney, the Red Sox had some "new ideas" in these talks, but gave no hint to what those were, and I have not found any rumors anywhere of something changing from the package of Lester, Lowrie, Crisp, and Masterson/Bowden.

One last note: it is really annoying me how Red Sox and Yankee fans are acting like it would be better for the other team to get Santana. Yes, I understand how it is better to force the other team to give up more prospects by getting into a bidding war with them. However, this does not mean that the other team is getting worse by acquiring Santana. I just don't understand how these fans can be happy about their rival acquiring the best pitcher in the game.

Trade Rumors

The winter meetings start in less than a week, and there are already plenty of rumors surrounding the Twins and moves that they might make. I don't know about anyone else, but I find all this talk and discussion very exciting, even if they are only "internet rumors." In any case, talks of deals involving Johan Santana and anybody and young pitching to the Devil Rays seem to have the plenty of legitimacy, while there are other deals like Justin Morneau to the Angels that seem totally ridiculous. The removal of two players (pitchers Errol Simonitsch and Ricky Barrett) make it even more apparent that something is going to happen soon. By the way, Simonitsch and Barrett both cleared waivers and are safely on the Rochester roster. I know you were worried.

• To start, there has been plenty of discussions of Santana trades, but now it seems that the Twins have begun preliminary talks with teams, at least with the New York Yankees for sure. As much as I hate to say it, the Yankees would be the most logical landing place for Santana, with their basically unlimited payroll, collection of top prospects, and need for pitching. (As a side note, how amazing is it that the Yankees have spent about $400 million already this offseason, and they haven't even added any players? All they've done is resign their own players.) All the other supposedly interested teams that could possibly pay Santana have foreseeable problems in getting a deal done. The Angels and Dodgers have bigger needs for hitters than pitchers, especially with the Angels trading Orlando Cabrera last week. The Red Sox clearly do not want to part with Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury, and I don't think a deal centered around Jon Lester is enough. Also, more importantly, the Red Sox seem likely to stick to their word, as they did when they held strong and would not offer Mike Lowell a 4 year deal even after Philadelphia made such an offer. As is well known, the Yankees adamantly declared they would not negotiate with Alex Rodriguez after he opted out of his contract, and then they proceeded to sign him to a contract potentially worth over $300 million just a couple weeks later. Now, to get to the potential offers the Yankees could make. The Yankees have been saying all along that Joba Chamberlain is untouchable and now Robinson Cano appears to be in that same category, though the Yankees' adamant statements can be reversed quite quickly it seems. I certainly understand why everyone is so high on Joba, but I see Phil Hughes as at least an equal piece in a trade, and possibly better, simply because he has proven his stuff over a couple years in the minors instead of just one. If the Yankees are not going to offer Chamberlain, then Hughes is a great building block for the trade. I would want to see any trade with the Yankees centered around Hughes or Chamberlain, as Cano will be hitting arbitration this year, and I would rather see the Twins get a cheaper, younger player as the base of the trade. If the Twins could get Hughes/Chamberlain and Cano, then that would be a great deal, but I'm not too sure that that will happen. I know the Twins need offense way more than pitching, but they can trade some young pitching for young hitters, as a deal like this would give them an even bigger surplus of young pitching. I still think a deal to the Dodgers would work best for the Twins, but at this point I'm not sure how involved they'll get in the Santana trade talks.

• Joe Christensen, in an attempt to lessen the hopes of Twins fans like me, wrote up what he felt to be a more realistic trade market for Santana. Obviously, no one outside the teams making the offers knows exactly what the Twins could get for Johan, but if these are the deals that are out there, I would rather keep Santana and let him walk after 2008 if he can't be re-signed. Some people might say this would be the same as the Torii Hunter fiasco. Personally, I did not think the Twins should have traded Hunter, but even for people who did, this is totally different. In this case, if the Twins lost Santana for draft picks, it wouldn't be for a lack of trying; the Twins have been proactive in looking to either deal or re-sign him, and that is the key. With Torii, the Twins waited until the summer to make an offer for an extension, and seemingly never discussed trading him. In any case, I would rather have 1 year of Santana than get what Christensen suggests the Twins would get.

• More indications of talks with the Rays came out today, this time involving Boof Bonser moving to Tampa. I think that a trade of Boof for Rocco Baldelli would be a good deal, although I would feel bad losing a guy with such a great name. Then again, Rocco isn't so bad in itself. If the Twins don't trade Santana, which at this point would surprise me, or if they get another great young pitcher in return (like Hughes), then some of the Twins better young pitchers (like Matt Garza or Kevin Slowey) could possibly be used to get a player like BJ Upton.

• The rumors of a Morneau-to-the-Angels deal are ridiculous. The Twins should NOT trade him, not for anything. He is their only established power threat, and if they lose Hunter, Santana, and Morneau in the offseason, they might as well change the team name to the Minnesota Sideburns. Not to mention the proposed return on the deal, Casey Kotchman and Ervin Santana, is not even close to fair compensation. (As I typed this, I went to look for the link where I found this, but the thread was deleted. So maybe it was totally made up.)

• And, if you've had enough of all this trade talk, check out the latest rumor, this one started by Bob Sansevere over at the Pioneer Press. Just think: this guy gets paid to write about the Twins, while I'm sitting here at 2:2o AM with an 8:50 class in the morning tomorrow, none of my homework started yet, and getting nothing for it.

Finally, was anyone else hoping for a scoreless tie in the Dolphins-Steelers game, or at the very least a 2-0 overtime victory for one of the teams? I guess now the only amazing thing I can hope for is an 0-14 Dolphins team beating a 14-0 Patriots team in Week 16.

Leaving a Golden Legacy

Two Twins who may have played their last games in a Twins uniform picked up awards today, as the 2007 Gold Glove winner were announced earlier today. Torii Hunter won his 7th straight Gold Glove in the outfield, while Johan Santana earned his 1st Gold Glove on the mound. Hunter's 7th Gold Glove gives him 1 more than the late Kirby Puckett, although I'm not sure if he deserved this one. Gold Gloves are voted on by the players and managers, and oftentimes the votes are based on reputation more than performance. I'm not going to pretend that I've seen enough games (outside of the Twins) to truly judge who should win the award, but Hunter's defensive performance this past season was not as great as in his younger years. Clearly, he was still superb defender, but I'm not sure he was a top 3 defensive outfielder in 2007. On the other hand, after watching Santana make plays on the pitcher's mound all year, this is an award that he was overdue for. In 2007, Santana fielded bunts with lightning-quick reflexes and he did not make any errors all season. With a Gold Glove, Santana has only added to his great Twins career, while Hunter has held onto his golden reputation in centerfield. As a breath of fresh air, a certain overrated Yankees shortstop actually did not win a Gold Glove, with Orlando Cabrera of the Angels taking home that honor. The other AL winners were: C Ivan Rodriguez (Tigers), 1B Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox), 2B Placido Polanco (Tigers), 3B Adrian Beltre (Mariners), OF Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners), and OF Grady Sizemore (Indians).

As for their futures with the Twins, it is looking more and more as if 1 of them will remain in Minnesota, while the other will not be back in 2008. It has been pretty clear for a while that Hunter is not coming back, and the news lately that Hunter has cut off talks with the Twins only supports that. On the other hand, word thus far from the GM meetings is that the Twins have not been discussing any trades involving Johan Santana. Unless the Twins have some serious prospects in signing him to an extension, which I doubt, I do not understand why they would not at least entertain offers for Santana. I can't say I supported trading Hunter, so I will not complain about losing him for nothing, but letting the best pitcher in MLB walk away next year would be the worst possible thing for this organization. Right now, he has the potential to fill at least two of the Twins' major offensive holes with young, cheap players right away, and if the organization misses out on that opportunity, Johan better be retiring as a Twin.

Beckett Beaten, Kazmir K's 10

The Twins were able to get to the Red Sox's Josh Beckett, leading off each of the first five innings with a hit, and four times getting that runner to score. After the first inning, although a Jason Bartlett single followed by a Jason Kubel triple scored a run early, my hopes were not high, as the Twins lost Kubel at home and Torii Hunter on a strike-em-out throw-em-out. Those squandered opportunities looked bad when the Red Sox scored two off of Boof Bonser in the bottom of the inning. Bonser settled down enough to win the game, however, allowing just one more run on a David Ortiz solo home run. For the Twins, Kubel and Garrett Jones both had solo homers, Jones' being a bomb to straight-away centerfield.


Bonser's first inning would not have been as bad, though, if it were not for Matthew LeCroy. As I mentioned last time he played, he is simply not a capable Major Leaguer, no matter how nice or positive he is. On a third strike in the dirt to Dustin Pedroia, LeCroy threw the ball just far enough from the bag that Garrett Jones had to come off to make the catch, despite having plenty of time to throw. That was made even more disappointing by the fact that Bonser had thrown eight straight strikes to Pedroia, the last six being fouled off. LeCroy also allowed three stolen bases; yes, on two of them nobody covered, but I feel like it would have been played differently had someone else been behind the plate. And at the plate, LeCroy was no better. He looked foolish in all three of his strikeouts, getting way out in front of breaking pitches, and his fourth at bat resulted in a double play where Julio Lugo probably could have run from second to first and still gotten him out.

If you noticed in that paragraph, I mentioned that Garrett Jones was playing first base. At first I was surprised at this, but then I remembered that it was only this year that he started playing in the outfield consistently. In his previous five professional seasons, all in the minor leagues, he played first base in all but 34 games.

Joe Nathan had us all hanging on the edge of our seats after he induced a two-out pop-out from Dustin Pedroia in the eighth with two runners in scoring position. Following that, in the ninth, he loaded the bases with a double and two walks (one intentional) with just one out. Fortunately, he battled and struck out Jason Varitek along with a quick K of Kevin Youkilis to end the game. No matter how you slice it, Nathan had a gutsy four-out performance today. Said Red Sox manager Terry Francona, "He made some really good pitches when he had to."

The last note today is something that did not take place in the Twins game, but was still of great importance to me. If you've read the previous days' entries, you know that I am speaking of the strikeout race. Scott Kazmir set down ten Yankees with strikeouts to push himself ahead of Johan Santana for the league lead. Also of note, Jake Peavy is scheduled to make another start this Sunday on three days' rest, although presumably he would not if the Padres have clinched a playoff spot (or perhaps have been eliminated).

Thursday's Game 9/27

Today's game is the start of the final series of the year for the Twins, taking place at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox are still two wins or two Yankee losses away from clinching the division, so the Twins have the chance to deal them a blow if they win at least three games. I admit, however, that the Twins taking three of four from the Red Sox is not a likely scenario. This is especially true for today's game, with Boof Bonser (7-12, 5.09) pitching opposite Cy Young favorite Josh Beckett (20-6, 3.14). Bonser is taking the place of Scott Baker, who is not pitching due to a combination of a sore hand from being hit with a line drive and his son's illness. Obviously, Bonser has struggled of late, as he has been removed from the rotation.


Not mentioned in yesterday's entry was the fact that Johan Santana's start may have been his last as a Twin. Since I would be very upset, perhaps devastated, if he was not back next year (and, in truth, the year after), I am not going to discuss the various possibilities for his future right now. Rather, something that was noted yesterday was his opportunity to lead the majors in strikeouts after Jake Peavy's one-strikeout performance. Scott Kazmir will take the mound against the Yankees today, just six strikeouts behind Santana. I know individual achievements are not something players will focus on, but it is something I am very willing to put the spotlight on. If Santana is able to hold on to the strikeout crown, it will be one positive all his fans will be able to take from an otherwise (relatively) sub-par season. Unfortunately, six is not a big number. Kazmir has had at least six strikeouts in twelve of his last fourteen starts, and at least seven in eleven of those starts. Then again, Peavy had had more than two strikeouts in every start this season, and did not manage to pick up multiple Ks yesterday.