The last time the Twins organization saw this many changes in one season was back in 2007, when perennial all-stars Torii Hunter and Johan Santana departed. In trying to avoid replicating a disastrous 99-loss season, Minnesota sacked Bill Smith and reinstated Terry Ryan as General Manager, who stepped down in that same 2007 season. The moves Ryan have made since then have mostly been positive, as he's helped situate the Twins to be better than they were in 2011--thought that wasn't all that difficult.
There are still many holes, however, and many of the problems that produced 99 losses last year are still present. While the Twins will probably be better, hopes are not nearly as high as they've been in years past. Let's take a look at each of Terry Ryan's moves one-by-one and evaluate their effect on the prospects of the 2011 Minnesota Twins.
Matt Capps- The gift that keeps on taking. In mid-2010, Bill Smith traded top catching prospect Wilson Ramos for the overrated Matt Capps. In the 2010 off-season, Smith retained Capps for the next season for more than $7 million, a result of Smith's complete over-valuation of the save statistic. In December of 2011, Terry Ryan decided to re-sign Capps for $4.75 million. While that represents a significantly smaller sum than his previous salary, it was still far too much, especially considering the number of quality relievers available as free agents. Aaron Gleeman depressingly captures exactly what the Twins could have done to improve their bullpen with that $4.75 million they spent on Capps. Oh, and they also would have received an extra draft pick if Capps had signed with another team. Ouch.
Jamey Carroll- This was meant as a move to fill the chasm that was created at shortstop last season when Tsuyoshi Nishioka turned out to be woefully under-prepared for the Major Leagues. Of course he's still around and could be better this year, but nobody's hopes are very high. Carroll will presumably begin the year as the starting shortstop, a role that he adequately fits. He's 37 years old so his good defensive ratings from last year are no bet to continue, though, and his slap-hitting tendencies won't make up for his defense if it's below average. Considering the black hole the Twins have often been sporting at shortstop over the last decade, however, this move is solid. 2 years at more than $7 million total may be a little high, but all around this was a decent acquisition.
Ryan Doumit- I don't think there's anything to complain about with this signing. For the low price of $3 million, the Twins have added a switch-hitting catcher who can also play the outfield. With Denard Span and new acquisition Josh Willingham locked into outfield spots, Doumit will either play DH or take the third outfield position from Ben Revere. In addition, he provides a very capable option at catcher if Joe Mauer gets injured or just to fill in on his regular days of rest. Doumit is no superstar but he's a great fit for the Twins at a great price.
Josh Willingham- The biggest move of the Twins off-season was essentially choosing to sign Willingham over re-signing Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer's popularity with Minnesota fans and the media is well-known, but the fact of the matter is that this was the correct move to make. Cuddyer signed with the Rockies for $30 million over 3 years, while the Twins got Willingham for $21 million over the same period. In addition to saving $9 million, Minnesota will also get two extra draft picks because another team signed Cuddyer. And, despite that, they really didn't lost much, if anything, in terms of on-field production. Willingham is a poor-fielding right-handed power bat, just like Cuddyer, except that he gets on base a little more while hitting for a slightly lower average. It's sad to see Cuddyer go, but Ryan did well in making this tough decision.
Joel Zumaya- This was a low-risk, high-reward signing that will probably give the Twins little to no value. Zumaya hasn't pitched since mid-2010, when his elbow shattered while pitching for the Tigers against Minnesota. The likelihood that Zumaya will be healthy and effective at all in 2012 is low, and the likelihood that he will be both of those for anything resembling an entire season is essentially zero. Nonetheless, for $800,000 it was worth the risk. In the past, when healthy, Zumaya has been a top-flight reliever, something the Twins sorely need with the departure of Joe Nathan.
Showing posts with label michael cuddyer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label michael cuddyer. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Monday, August 29, 2011
In Defense of Joe Mauer
Over at Nick's Twins Blog, Nick Nelson already wrote a great article describing the situation Joe Mauer is in. But, considering the amount of vitriol directed at him by fans and media members a like, he needs all the support he can get. And he deserves it.
Those people who are attacking Mauer, and labeling him as 'soft', have been incredibly short-sighted and laughably biased. Many of them cite Michael Cuddyer's decision to play with what was probably a very sore wrist on Thursday, while Mauer sat out with a stiff neck. Of course, those detractors conveniently ignore the fact that Cuddyer missed nine days earlier this month after suffering a similar injury swinging during batting practice. They also focus too much on this one season, as Mauer has actually been quite durable for a catcher since his first knee surgery in 2004.
Take a look at these numbers for where he ranks in innings caught, games, and plate appearances among Major League catchers since then:
2010: 951 innings (8th), 137 games (3rd), 584 PA (1st)
2009: 939 innings (11th), 138 games (t-5th), 606 PA (3rd)
2008: 1203 innings (4th), 146 games (4th), 633 PA (2nd)
2007: 777 innings (28th), 109 games (27th), 471 PA (14th)
2006: 1054 innings (8th), 140 games (t-6th), 608 PA (3rd)
2005: 999 innings (14th), 131 games (11th), 554 PA (3rd)
Total (2005-2010): 5930 innings (5th), 801 games (4th), 3456 PA (1st)
Total (2005-2011): 6323 innings (6th), 871 games (3rd), 3741 PA (2nd)
In case you don't feel like scouring those numbers, I'll sum it up: in 5 of the last 6 seasons, Mauer has ranked in the top 3 in plate appearances for a catcher. From 2005 through 2010, Mauer had the most plate appearances for a catcher and played the fourth-most games and the fifth-most innings. Even including his current injury-plagued season, he ranks similarly since 2005. And for those of you that might claim he ranks so high in those categories because he's spent a lot of time at DH, consider that his 2,968 plate appearances specifically as a catcher is the third-most between 2005 and 2010.
I'm not sure how anybody can look at these numbers and call Mauer 'soft'. There's no way a catcher plays that much without often playing tired, hurt, and generally at much less than 100 percent. This stiff neck is one incident, and 2011 is just one season--they don't overrule Mauer's whole career, during which he's been way more durable than people realize, especially when compared to one Michael Cuddyer.
I want to start off with a disclaimer, as this is not an attack on Cuddyer. I like Cuddyer, but those who criticize Mauer often bring up Cuddyer as his antithesis, so it makes sense to compare him to Cuddyer. From 2005 to 2010, Mauer and Cuddyer played in the exact same number of games, 801. With 2011 included, Cuddyer has played in about 50 more, but considering the positional difference that's not a very impressive lead over seven seasons.
Oh, and don't forget, Mauer's been really good, too. In that span, FanGraphs credits him for contributing 33.9 WAR, almost 8 wins ahead of the next-best catcher. Baseball-Reference's WAR calculator likes him even more, as it gives him 38.7 WAR, 16.2 wins ahead of the second-best catcher! And if you prefer some other statistics, he's first in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA, wRC, and wRC+ (and 5th in slugging) over that time period.
So please, if you're criticizing Mauer, take a step back. Look at his career consistency and his league-best performance and cut him some slack. The Twins have so many players who deserve blame for this season; let's not put it all on Joe Mauer.
Those people who are attacking Mauer, and labeling him as 'soft', have been incredibly short-sighted and laughably biased. Many of them cite Michael Cuddyer's decision to play with what was probably a very sore wrist on Thursday, while Mauer sat out with a stiff neck. Of course, those detractors conveniently ignore the fact that Cuddyer missed nine days earlier this month after suffering a similar injury swinging during batting practice. They also focus too much on this one season, as Mauer has actually been quite durable for a catcher since his first knee surgery in 2004.
Take a look at these numbers for where he ranks in innings caught, games, and plate appearances among Major League catchers since then:
2010: 951 innings (8th), 137 games (3rd), 584 PA (1st)
2009: 939 innings (11th), 138 games (t-5th), 606 PA (3rd)
2008: 1203 innings (4th), 146 games (4th), 633 PA (2nd)
2007: 777 innings (28th), 109 games (27th), 471 PA (14th)
2006: 1054 innings (8th), 140 games (t-6th), 608 PA (3rd)
2005: 999 innings (14th), 131 games (11th), 554 PA (3rd)
Total (2005-2010): 5930 innings (5th), 801 games (4th), 3456 PA (1st)
Total (2005-2011): 6323 innings (6th), 871 games (3rd), 3741 PA (2nd)
In case you don't feel like scouring those numbers, I'll sum it up: in 5 of the last 6 seasons, Mauer has ranked in the top 3 in plate appearances for a catcher. From 2005 through 2010, Mauer had the most plate appearances for a catcher and played the fourth-most games and the fifth-most innings. Even including his current injury-plagued season, he ranks similarly since 2005. And for those of you that might claim he ranks so high in those categories because he's spent a lot of time at DH, consider that his 2,968 plate appearances specifically as a catcher is the third-most between 2005 and 2010.
I'm not sure how anybody can look at these numbers and call Mauer 'soft'. There's no way a catcher plays that much without often playing tired, hurt, and generally at much less than 100 percent. This stiff neck is one incident, and 2011 is just one season--they don't overrule Mauer's whole career, during which he's been way more durable than people realize, especially when compared to one Michael Cuddyer.
I want to start off with a disclaimer, as this is not an attack on Cuddyer. I like Cuddyer, but those who criticize Mauer often bring up Cuddyer as his antithesis, so it makes sense to compare him to Cuddyer. From 2005 to 2010, Mauer and Cuddyer played in the exact same number of games, 801. With 2011 included, Cuddyer has played in about 50 more, but considering the positional difference that's not a very impressive lead over seven seasons.
Oh, and don't forget, Mauer's been really good, too. In that span, FanGraphs credits him for contributing 33.9 WAR, almost 8 wins ahead of the next-best catcher. Baseball-Reference's WAR calculator likes him even more, as it gives him 38.7 WAR, 16.2 wins ahead of the second-best catcher! And if you prefer some other statistics, he's first in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA, wRC, and wRC+ (and 5th in slugging) over that time period.
So please, if you're criticizing Mauer, take a step back. Look at his career consistency and his league-best performance and cut him some slack. The Twins have so many players who deserve blame for this season; let's not put it all on Joe Mauer.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Who is Michael Cuddyer?
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| Cuddyer becomes the first Twins position player to pitch since John Moses in 1990 |
Cuddyer was drafted by Minnesota in the first round in 1997. As with many top prospects, negotiations lasted a while and he did not sign until mid-August, meaning his professional debut would wait until 1998. After a strong performance at low Single-A that year, Cuddyer began his five-year stint on Baseball-America's list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, never rating worse than #55. Remaining such a highly rated prospect for so long is relatively unusual because the player normally reaches the big leagues or plays poorly enough to be removed from the list within that period of time.
Following a particularly impressive season at Double-A in 2001 in which he hit 30 home runs, Cuddyer got a cup of coffee with the Twins in late September. He returned to the minors for the next season, putting up even better numbers at Triple-A. That resulted in him getting two different stints with the Twins during the 2002 season, not to mention his inclusion on the playoff roster. Overall his season was just solid, but he did hit well in the divisional series against the Oakland Athletics.
All of that was enough to get him to #17 in Baseball America's prospect rankings, his highest position in his last season being eligible for the list, since he'd no longer be considered a rookie after the 2003 season. Though he made the big league club out of Spring Training, Cuddyer struggled and was sent back to Triple-A in early May as he was hitting just .233. He would not return until August 31, despite putting up very good numbers in the minors once again. He ended the season with solid but unspectacular statistics, just as he had in 2003.
The next two seasons saw more of the same. Cuddyer was a full-time big leaguer and got relatively frequent at bats over the two seasons, but did appreciably improve his performance. Given his prospect status, the merely solid lines he regularly produced had become quite disappointing. Before the 2006 season, in fact, many fans had soured on him and were ready to get rid of him. Of course, Cuddyer finally broke out in 2006, slugging 24 homers, driving in over 100 runs, and increasing his OPS by about 100 points. Having played predominately infield--third base, second base, and first base--Cuddyer spent this season as the Twins' regular right fielder.
Cuddyer's performance in 2007, however, was closer to his early career than it was to his breakout year. Still, the Twins saw fit to reward him with a 3-year, $24 million contract. While not necessarily exorbitant, the contract was probably more than a small-market team such as Minnesota should have been willing to spend on a player of Cuddyer's ilk. That problem only became exacerbated when Cuddyer put together the worst season of his career in 2008, in no small part due to injuries. He dislocated his right index finger just a few days into the season, and then, after returning in late April, injured his left index finger at the end of June. This time he would miss more than two months, compounded by the fact that he fractured his foot while on a rehab assignment. Though he missed more than half the season due to these injuries, he was also ineffective when he was in the lineup.
The tide had definitively turned once again, as Twins fans regarded Cuddyer as an overpaid player who was unnecessarily locked into a starting spot because of his contract. But Cuddyer had one more turn planned. In the midst of a good season that was only a shade worse than 2006, he was forced to move to first base in mid-September when Justin Morneau was placed on the disabled list. He cemented a place in the hearts of Twins fans with a memorable performance to end that season, hitting .325 with 8 homers, 24 RBIs, and a 1.073 OPS over the final 21 games to help the Twins complete a historic comeback and overtake the Detroit Tigers for the division championship.
Cuddyer's numbers dropped again in 2010, but are again at their 2006 level this season. An accomplished magician and a favorite of the Twins media, Cuddyer has had many memorable moments with the Twins. He's hit for the cycle, he's the only Twin to ever hit two home runs in the same inning, and he even got on the mound and pitched earlier this season in a 20-6 blowout. Oddly enough, his positive presence has created a backlash, as some fans think the Twins overvalue him because of this. While this is probably true, he is still a good player who is fun to have on your team, even if Ron Gardenhire sometimes insists on putting him at positions, such as second base and centerfield, that he is clearly not qualified to play.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Fantasy Baseball Trade Analysis
So Twin #2 asked me earlier today for advice on a trade he was offered in a fantasy baseball league. I figured, if I'm going to spend a lot of time properly analyzing it, I might as well post it here. And maybe I'll do this with other trades in the near future. Or maybe not. You know me, I'm fairly unreliable.
Type: Head-to-Head
Number of Teams: 12
Categories: Standard 5 x 5 (AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB; W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)
Rosters: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 4xOF, UTIL; 3xSP, 3xRP, 3xP; 5 Bench, 1 DL
Max Innings: None
Keeper Style: None
Joe Nathan's Hot Dog's (JN) trades 1B Adam Dunn, OF Colby Rasmus, OF Drew Stubbs, SP Jhoulys Chacin to Seattle Slew (SS) for 1B/2B/3B/OF Michael Cuddyer, OF Shin-Soo Choo, SP Anibal Sanchez, SP Matt Garza
My approach to evaluating trades is twofold: 1) is the value changing hands in my favor (or at least equivalent)? and 2) does what I receive provide an upgrade over the drop-off that results from the players I am trading away? If the answer to question 1 is no, I could pursue a different trade that would satisfy question 2 while also not forcing me to lose overall value. If the answer to question 2 is no, then there's really no point in doing the trade. I may be getting more value, but I'm not actually helping my team. Of course if you're then going to trade the new player(s) in a move that will improve your lineup, that's a different situation; however, I don't usually like to count on that in the fickle trading environment that is fantasy sports.
To start, I always like to simplify the trade and break it down piece-by-piece. In this case we've got individual swaps of Dunn for Cuddyer, Rasmus for Choo, Stubbs for Garza, and Chacin for Sanchez. Obviously there are different ways to break up this trade, but that's how I'll be looking at it.
Everyone is familiar with Dunn's struggles, as he's threatening to break the all-time record for lowest batting average for hitter who qualifies for the batting title. Right now he's at .166, leaving significant space between him and Rob Deer's record-setting .179 average in 1991. The question of course is what will happen going forward. Prior to this season, he was among the most consistent fantasy players, hitting between 38 and 40 homers each of the last six seasons and driving in between 92 and 105 runs each of the last seven seasons. It's hard to say why it's happened, as his walk rate is similar and his batted ball profile is largely the same, save for an uptick in infield fly balls. Regardless, the danger is that his jaw-droppingly bad numbers will force him to the bench, which actually just might be a plus for fantasy owners. When a player's owners would benefit from him being benched, I'm not looking to acquire him.
But how much of an upgrade is Cuddyer? His positional versatility is a big plus, especially given he can play at the wasteland that is third base this year. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities going forward as he's locked into the fourth spot in the lineup with a healthy Joe Mauer getting on base in front of him, along with the recent return of Denard Span to the top of the batting order. If Justin Morneau ever comes back, that would only improve his situation. The batting average will probably come down a tad, perhaps around .280 for the rest of the season, but otherwise the production is largely for real. Getting Cuddyer for Dunn is a huge win for JN.
The Rasmus-for-Choo swap could be beneficial to both teams. As SS is in tight competition for a playoff spot and every game is crucial, it would do him well to get some immediate value for Choo. JN, on the other hand, stands in first place and will almost assuredly make the playoffs, meaning he can afford to carry an additional injured player on his roster. The issues are whether Choo will play any better than he did at the beginning of the season, prior to his injury, and whether Rasmus's new home in Toronto will change his performance for the better.
Honestly, I'm not especially confident about either player, but Rasmus at least is healthy. I'm not sure I buy the change-of-scenery argument, but I do buy an improved lineup position (he's hit number two in every game with the Blue Jays) and a better home park for hitters. I can see a moderate improvement in his numbers across the board, especially in batting average where he's been unlucky anyways. Choo, meanwhile, really struggled this season after two very good years, and admitted some of it was mental as a result of the DUI he was charged with. I don't think, given those factors, that he'll pick up where he left off in 2010; rather I see him playing fairly similarly to Rasmus except with a few more steals the rest of the way. That means this part of the trade favors SS, since Choo will not be playing for at least 2 more weeks.
As for the starting pitcher trade, this obviously depends on who you like--I would rather have Sanchez. Chacin's bouts with wildness make him too susceptible to disastrous outings, and I think his WHIP (1.18) is unsustainably low, given the amount of free passes he hands out. His FIP (4.42) also indicates his ERA (3.38) has had similar good fortune, but I'm more concerned about his WHIP. His strikeouts are solid and could even rise closer to last year's mark, but the other categories appear bound to decline. Sanchez's ERA (3.74) and WHIP (1.26) are currently higher than Chacin's, but I think they are much more stable. His 2010 season was quite similar, lending credence to that argument. His career K/9 of 7.43 makes me skeptical of his current rate (9.37) but otherwise I'd be happy to have Sanchez.
I always find pitcher-for-hitter swaps the most difficult to analyze, and that's why I've left the Stubbs-for-Garza part of the deal for last. I think Garza is very comparable to Sanchez, as he has a 3.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a very good strikeout rate (9.02) that's above his career rate. Despite the fact that he pitches for a Cubs team that figures to make wins hard to come by over the final two months, I like Garza a little more. His ERA could come down somewhat and his strikeout rate is more likely to stay that high, given that he was more of a strikeout pitcher in the minors and that his career Major League rate was accumulated in the American League.
Stubbs is a good fantasy player whose low average holds him back. He'll provide more steals and runs than either Choo or Rasmus, but in terms of his home run and RBI outlook he's fairly similar. Rasmus, and certainly Choo, might give your team positive contributions in average, whereas Stubbs is pretty assuredly going to hit in the .250 range. In a vacuum, I'd take Stubbs over Garza because of the prevalence of good pitchers this season.
Now that we know how each aspect of the trade rates individually, it's time to consider them together and then within the context of each team's roster. JN turns Dunn into Cuddyer, a vast improvement, and solidly upgrades his starting pitching from Chacin to Sanchez. He also takes a risk, and a small downgrade, by giving up Rasmus for the injured Choo and swaps Drew Stubbs for Matt Garza, additionally bolstering his pitching. In terms of pure value, it seems like JN is making off better, largely because he is able to get a big improvement on offense (Cuddyer over Dunn) without really losing much in the other swaps.
As for how this fits with each team, it is reasonably sensible for both, but much better for JN. JN is first or second in every batting category, except for batting average where he is below average, but is not doing as well in the pitching categories. Therefore grabbing two good pitchers (Garza and Sanchez) while only giving up one solid one (Chacin) makes a lot of sense. Trading Stubbs, Rasmus, and Dunn likely won't have too much of an impact because JN's offense is already very strong. Rasmus didn't start normally anyways and Dunn will be replaced by the superior Cuddyer, but there will be a downgrade when Danny Espinosa slides into the lineup to replace Stubbs. All in all, there's not much, if any, value lost on offense, and when you consider the possibility that Choo comes back and plays like he did the previous two seasons, this trade seems like a no-brainer for JN.
Meanwhile, SS ranks second-to-last in steals and first in batting average; thus the addition of Stubbs is a nice fit, since he needs help in steals and can handle the underwhelming average. Getting Rasmus is also a good move since that means both Casey McGehee and Chris Heisey, with his inconsistent playing time, can be pushed to the bench. SS needs help in wins, ERA, and WHIP, too, though, and this trade weakens him in all three categories.
The biggest problem, however, is that SS will have to go shopping in the free agency pool for a second baseman to replace Cuddyer. He has players he shouldn't hesitate to drop (McGehee for instance), but the options simply are not very appealing. The loss in pitching can be made up for with the additions of Stubbs and Rasmus, but I just can't overlook the fact that Dunn would have to actually do something for this trade to be a good one for SS. I'm not counting on that, and unless SS is, I don't think this is a trade he should do. Perhaps swapping Espinosa in for Dunn makes this trade more viable, as that would give SS a second baseman while not changing the outlook for JN all that much--Dunn (or someone else) would simply occupy the utility spot in place of Espinosa presumably until Choo came off the disabled list.
Type: Head-to-Head
Number of Teams: 12
Categories: Standard 5 x 5 (AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB; W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)
Rosters: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 4xOF, UTIL; 3xSP, 3xRP, 3xP; 5 Bench, 1 DL
Max Innings: None
Keeper Style: None
Joe Nathan's Hot Dog's (JN) trades 1B Adam Dunn, OF Colby Rasmus, OF Drew Stubbs, SP Jhoulys Chacin to Seattle Slew (SS) for 1B/2B/3B/OF Michael Cuddyer, OF Shin-Soo Choo, SP Anibal Sanchez, SP Matt Garza
My approach to evaluating trades is twofold: 1) is the value changing hands in my favor (or at least equivalent)? and 2) does what I receive provide an upgrade over the drop-off that results from the players I am trading away? If the answer to question 1 is no, I could pursue a different trade that would satisfy question 2 while also not forcing me to lose overall value. If the answer to question 2 is no, then there's really no point in doing the trade. I may be getting more value, but I'm not actually helping my team. Of course if you're then going to trade the new player(s) in a move that will improve your lineup, that's a different situation; however, I don't usually like to count on that in the fickle trading environment that is fantasy sports.
To start, I always like to simplify the trade and break it down piece-by-piece. In this case we've got individual swaps of Dunn for Cuddyer, Rasmus for Choo, Stubbs for Garza, and Chacin for Sanchez. Obviously there are different ways to break up this trade, but that's how I'll be looking at it.
Everyone is familiar with Dunn's struggles, as he's threatening to break the all-time record for lowest batting average for hitter who qualifies for the batting title. Right now he's at .166, leaving significant space between him and Rob Deer's record-setting .179 average in 1991. The question of course is what will happen going forward. Prior to this season, he was among the most consistent fantasy players, hitting between 38 and 40 homers each of the last six seasons and driving in between 92 and 105 runs each of the last seven seasons. It's hard to say why it's happened, as his walk rate is similar and his batted ball profile is largely the same, save for an uptick in infield fly balls. Regardless, the danger is that his jaw-droppingly bad numbers will force him to the bench, which actually just might be a plus for fantasy owners. When a player's owners would benefit from him being benched, I'm not looking to acquire him.
But how much of an upgrade is Cuddyer? His positional versatility is a big plus, especially given he can play at the wasteland that is third base this year. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities going forward as he's locked into the fourth spot in the lineup with a healthy Joe Mauer getting on base in front of him, along with the recent return of Denard Span to the top of the batting order. If Justin Morneau ever comes back, that would only improve his situation. The batting average will probably come down a tad, perhaps around .280 for the rest of the season, but otherwise the production is largely for real. Getting Cuddyer for Dunn is a huge win for JN.
The Rasmus-for-Choo swap could be beneficial to both teams. As SS is in tight competition for a playoff spot and every game is crucial, it would do him well to get some immediate value for Choo. JN, on the other hand, stands in first place and will almost assuredly make the playoffs, meaning he can afford to carry an additional injured player on his roster. The issues are whether Choo will play any better than he did at the beginning of the season, prior to his injury, and whether Rasmus's new home in Toronto will change his performance for the better.
Honestly, I'm not especially confident about either player, but Rasmus at least is healthy. I'm not sure I buy the change-of-scenery argument, but I do buy an improved lineup position (he's hit number two in every game with the Blue Jays) and a better home park for hitters. I can see a moderate improvement in his numbers across the board, especially in batting average where he's been unlucky anyways. Choo, meanwhile, really struggled this season after two very good years, and admitted some of it was mental as a result of the DUI he was charged with. I don't think, given those factors, that he'll pick up where he left off in 2010; rather I see him playing fairly similarly to Rasmus except with a few more steals the rest of the way. That means this part of the trade favors SS, since Choo will not be playing for at least 2 more weeks.
As for the starting pitcher trade, this obviously depends on who you like--I would rather have Sanchez. Chacin's bouts with wildness make him too susceptible to disastrous outings, and I think his WHIP (1.18) is unsustainably low, given the amount of free passes he hands out. His FIP (4.42) also indicates his ERA (3.38) has had similar good fortune, but I'm more concerned about his WHIP. His strikeouts are solid and could even rise closer to last year's mark, but the other categories appear bound to decline. Sanchez's ERA (3.74) and WHIP (1.26) are currently higher than Chacin's, but I think they are much more stable. His 2010 season was quite similar, lending credence to that argument. His career K/9 of 7.43 makes me skeptical of his current rate (9.37) but otherwise I'd be happy to have Sanchez.
I always find pitcher-for-hitter swaps the most difficult to analyze, and that's why I've left the Stubbs-for-Garza part of the deal for last. I think Garza is very comparable to Sanchez, as he has a 3.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a very good strikeout rate (9.02) that's above his career rate. Despite the fact that he pitches for a Cubs team that figures to make wins hard to come by over the final two months, I like Garza a little more. His ERA could come down somewhat and his strikeout rate is more likely to stay that high, given that he was more of a strikeout pitcher in the minors and that his career Major League rate was accumulated in the American League.
Stubbs is a good fantasy player whose low average holds him back. He'll provide more steals and runs than either Choo or Rasmus, but in terms of his home run and RBI outlook he's fairly similar. Rasmus, and certainly Choo, might give your team positive contributions in average, whereas Stubbs is pretty assuredly going to hit in the .250 range. In a vacuum, I'd take Stubbs over Garza because of the prevalence of good pitchers this season.
Now that we know how each aspect of the trade rates individually, it's time to consider them together and then within the context of each team's roster. JN turns Dunn into Cuddyer, a vast improvement, and solidly upgrades his starting pitching from Chacin to Sanchez. He also takes a risk, and a small downgrade, by giving up Rasmus for the injured Choo and swaps Drew Stubbs for Matt Garza, additionally bolstering his pitching. In terms of pure value, it seems like JN is making off better, largely because he is able to get a big improvement on offense (Cuddyer over Dunn) without really losing much in the other swaps.
As for how this fits with each team, it is reasonably sensible for both, but much better for JN. JN is first or second in every batting category, except for batting average where he is below average, but is not doing as well in the pitching categories. Therefore grabbing two good pitchers (Garza and Sanchez) while only giving up one solid one (Chacin) makes a lot of sense. Trading Stubbs, Rasmus, and Dunn likely won't have too much of an impact because JN's offense is already very strong. Rasmus didn't start normally anyways and Dunn will be replaced by the superior Cuddyer, but there will be a downgrade when Danny Espinosa slides into the lineup to replace Stubbs. All in all, there's not much, if any, value lost on offense, and when you consider the possibility that Choo comes back and plays like he did the previous two seasons, this trade seems like a no-brainer for JN.
Meanwhile, SS ranks second-to-last in steals and first in batting average; thus the addition of Stubbs is a nice fit, since he needs help in steals and can handle the underwhelming average. Getting Rasmus is also a good move since that means both Casey McGehee and Chris Heisey, with his inconsistent playing time, can be pushed to the bench. SS needs help in wins, ERA, and WHIP, too, though, and this trade weakens him in all three categories.
The biggest problem, however, is that SS will have to go shopping in the free agency pool for a second baseman to replace Cuddyer. He has players he shouldn't hesitate to drop (McGehee for instance), but the options simply are not very appealing. The loss in pitching can be made up for with the additions of Stubbs and Rasmus, but I just can't overlook the fact that Dunn would have to actually do something for this trade to be a good one for SS. I'm not counting on that, and unless SS is, I don't think this is a trade he should do. Perhaps swapping Espinosa in for Dunn makes this trade more viable, as that would give SS a second baseman while not changing the outlook for JN all that much--Dunn (or someone else) would simply occupy the utility spot in place of Espinosa presumably until Choo came off the disabled list.
Twins Crank 5 Homers to Beat Angels
Coming off of three consecutive losses in which the starting pitchers had combined to allow 36 walks-plus-hits and 19 runs in 14.1 innings, the Twins could really have used a strong start from Scott Baker. Instead Baker continued the miserable run of starting pitching, tacking on just 3 innings to the totals, but adding 6 walks-plus-hits and 4 runs. Anthony Swarzak was up to the task, however, pitching 5 excellent innings of relief, allowing only one hit and one walk.
The game actually started smoothly for Baker, and through the first two innings he was looking effective. Everything completely unraveled in the third frame, though, as he was forced to throw 46 pitches to make it through the disastrous inning. While Swarzak held the Angels down, the bats ensured the win. The Twins tied their season high in runs with 11, hit 5 home runs, and tallied 7 extra base hits. The 5 home runs are also a season-high, and a feat the team has accomplished only two other times since 2008. Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young had two home runs each, the first time that two Twins players have both had multi-homer games since October of 2009. That time it was Young and Jason Kubel who victimized the Kansas City Royals. Kubel also added the fifth home run in this game.
Minnesota was aided by Horacio Ramirez, who was brought up by the Angels to toss batting practice before games, but was mistakenly identified as a real pitcher by Mike Scioscia. Seriously, since he was called up he has faced 20 hitters and given up 10 hits and 2 walks. Of course it's a really small sample, but so far the returns indicate that when you bring in a a 31-year old pitcher who was never very good to begin with, has a career WHIP of 1.49, and has almost as many strikeouts as walks over his career... well, he's not really going to pitch that well. The Twins, one would hope, learned this lesson long ago after their attempts to bring in Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, and every veteran innings eater who can't get a contract with any other team because they are terrible.
The game actually started smoothly for Baker, and through the first two innings he was looking effective. Everything completely unraveled in the third frame, though, as he was forced to throw 46 pitches to make it through the disastrous inning. While Swarzak held the Angels down, the bats ensured the win. The Twins tied their season high in runs with 11, hit 5 home runs, and tallied 7 extra base hits. The 5 home runs are also a season-high, and a feat the team has accomplished only two other times since 2008. Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young had two home runs each, the first time that two Twins players have both had multi-homer games since October of 2009. That time it was Young and Jason Kubel who victimized the Kansas City Royals. Kubel also added the fifth home run in this game.
Minnesota was aided by Horacio Ramirez, who was brought up by the Angels to toss batting practice before games, but was mistakenly identified as a real pitcher by Mike Scioscia. Seriously, since he was called up he has faced 20 hitters and given up 10 hits and 2 walks. Of course it's a really small sample, but so far the returns indicate that when you bring in a a 31-year old pitcher who was never very good to begin with, has a career WHIP of 1.49, and has almost as many strikeouts as walks over his career... well, he's not really going to pitch that well. The Twins, one would hope, learned this lesson long ago after their attempts to bring in Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, and every veteran innings eater who can't get a contract with any other team because they are terrible.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Changes
The big news out of Minnesota is, of course, that Carlos Gomez was traded for J.J. Hardy. Gomez was a personal favorite of mine, and I even sponsored him on Baseball-Reference, so I'm sad to see him go on that level. On the level of what's best for the Twins as a baseball team, I'm very happy to see them acquire J.J. Hardy. I'm sure you've already read extensively about what he's a good pickup, so I won't go into detail. While this does mean that Delmon Young will be playing full-time in the outfield, I think it's still a positive because of the great defense that Hardy brings to the shortstop position and the offensive potential he has. For a position that has been a huge headache over the past few years, that's a very nice combination.
The other news, which is far less surprising, is that the Twins exercised Michael Cuddyer's extension for 2010 and 2011. He'll make $19 million over the two seasons and confirms the Twins' outfield in their inaugural season in Target Field will, in all likelihood, be Cuddyer-Denard Span-Young.
The other news, which is far less surprising, is that the Twins exercised Michael Cuddyer's extension for 2010 and 2011. He'll make $19 million over the two seasons and confirms the Twins' outfield in their inaugural season in Target Field will, in all likelihood, be Cuddyer-Denard Span-Young.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Late Review of September and October
With the excitement late in the season, my computer being broken, and the work I had to do, this is way late. But it's here now.
September
Record: 16-11
Best record at any point (games above .500): 82-74
Worst record at any point (games below .500): 70-72
Days in first (and biggest lead): 0 (2.0 GB)
Days in last (and furthest out of first): 0 (7.0 GB)
Longest win streak: 6 games
Longest losing streak: 3 games
Runs scored/runs against: 126/104
Most runs scored/most runs allowed: 11/12
Shutouts/times shut out: 3/0
Extra inning games: 1
Longest game: 10 innings
Hitter of the month: Michael Cuddyer (103 AB, 13 R, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 4 BB:18 K, 1 SB, .282/.321/.563)
After Justin Morneau went down with his injury, with the Twins 7 games behind the Tigers, all seemed lost. It was largely thanks to Cuddyer that the Twins were able to make up the seemingly insurmountable deficit. Not only did he fill the need at first base, he hit the best he had the entire year, and did it in the clutch too. He came up with 8 games with over .100 WPA after Morneau went down, including the huge go-ahead home run against the Royals with two games left in the regular season.
Bizarro World hitter of the month: Justin Morneau (39 AB, 2 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB:8 K, 0 SB, .077/.178/.179)
I hate to pick on Morneau when he was battling through an injured back, but it just wasn't even close. Morneau had only 3 hits in 39 at bats, and every other player with more than 45 at bats had at least a .744 OPS. In order to catch Detroit, everyone had to play well; meaning that it was the one who wasn't playing then who gets this award. At least he got his 30th home run and 100th RBI before he went down for the season.
Pitcher of the month: Jesse Crain (3-0, 13.1 IP, 5 H, 6 BB, 7 K, 0.00/0.83)
Crain was demoted earlier this year, but he came back strong in September to play a role in Minnesota's comeback. Though he had a very weak K:BB ratio, he limited baserunners, didn't allow a single run, and contributed a positive WPA in 12 of the 15 games he pitched. The 3 games in October didn't go as well, since he allowed runs in 2 of those appearances, including a go-ahead run in the 10th inning of the play-in game. But that wasn't September, so it doesn't count.
Bizarro World pitcher of the month: Jeff Manship (0-1, 19.1 IP, 22 H, 11 BB, 14 K, 6.05/1.71)
Manship was booted out of the starting rotation briefly in September, and for good reason. He lasted 5 innings just once in 4 starts, and allowed at least 3 runs in 3 of those starts. All in all, it wasn't a horrible showing from a rookie making his first starts in the big leagues, but most everyone else picked up their game in the Twins' push for the postseason, leaving Manship as the recipient of this award.
October
Record: 5-0
Best record at any point (games above .500): 87-76
Worst record at any point (games below .500): 82-76
Days in first (and biggest lead): 3 (1.0 GB)
Days in last (and furthest out of first): 0 (2.0 GB)
Longest win streak: 5 games
Longest losing streak: 0 games
Runs scored/runs against: 42/23
Most runs scored/most runs allowed: 13/7
Shutouts/times shut out: 0/0
Extra inning games: 1
Longest game: 12 innings
September
Record: 16-11
Best record at any point (games above .500): 82-74
Worst record at any point (games below .500): 70-72
Days in first (and biggest lead): 0 (2.0 GB)
Days in last (and furthest out of first): 0 (7.0 GB)
Longest win streak: 6 games
Longest losing streak: 3 games
Runs scored/runs against: 126/104
Most runs scored/most runs allowed: 11/12
Shutouts/times shut out: 3/0
Extra inning games: 1
Longest game: 10 innings
Hitter of the month: Michael Cuddyer (103 AB, 13 R, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 4 BB:18 K, 1 SB, .282/.321/.563)
After Justin Morneau went down with his injury, with the Twins 7 games behind the Tigers, all seemed lost. It was largely thanks to Cuddyer that the Twins were able to make up the seemingly insurmountable deficit. Not only did he fill the need at first base, he hit the best he had the entire year, and did it in the clutch too. He came up with 8 games with over .100 WPA after Morneau went down, including the huge go-ahead home run against the Royals with two games left in the regular season.
Bizarro World hitter of the month: Justin Morneau (39 AB, 2 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB:8 K, 0 SB, .077/.178/.179)
I hate to pick on Morneau when he was battling through an injured back, but it just wasn't even close. Morneau had only 3 hits in 39 at bats, and every other player with more than 45 at bats had at least a .744 OPS. In order to catch Detroit, everyone had to play well; meaning that it was the one who wasn't playing then who gets this award. At least he got his 30th home run and 100th RBI before he went down for the season.
Pitcher of the month: Jesse Crain (3-0, 13.1 IP, 5 H, 6 BB, 7 K, 0.00/0.83)
Crain was demoted earlier this year, but he came back strong in September to play a role in Minnesota's comeback. Though he had a very weak K:BB ratio, he limited baserunners, didn't allow a single run, and contributed a positive WPA in 12 of the 15 games he pitched. The 3 games in October didn't go as well, since he allowed runs in 2 of those appearances, including a go-ahead run in the 10th inning of the play-in game. But that wasn't September, so it doesn't count.
Bizarro World pitcher of the month: Jeff Manship (0-1, 19.1 IP, 22 H, 11 BB, 14 K, 6.05/1.71)
Manship was booted out of the starting rotation briefly in September, and for good reason. He lasted 5 innings just once in 4 starts, and allowed at least 3 runs in 3 of those starts. All in all, it wasn't a horrible showing from a rookie making his first starts in the big leagues, but most everyone else picked up their game in the Twins' push for the postseason, leaving Manship as the recipient of this award.
October
Record: 5-0
Best record at any point (games above .500): 87-76
Worst record at any point (games below .500): 82-76
Days in first (and biggest lead): 3 (1.0 GB)
Days in last (and furthest out of first): 0 (2.0 GB)
Longest win streak: 5 games
Longest losing streak: 0 games
Runs scored/runs against: 42/23
Most runs scored/most runs allowed: 13/7
Shutouts/times shut out: 0/0
Extra inning games: 1
Longest game: 12 innings
Thursday, July 9, 2009
A word on Cuddyer
Michael Cuddyer is slugging .517 and has an OPS of .873, good for 7th and 8th among AL outfielders. He's on pace to hit 27 homers and drive in 90 runners. He's sporting what would be a career high wOBA of .374. And yet he has received unending scorn and derision from Twins fans.
Why is this? There seem to be 3 main arguments: 1) people are stuck on his injury-plagued season in 2008, when he posted measly totals in every stat; 2) he has not performed well in clutch situations; and 3) he is in the middle of a 3-year, $24 million contract that makes him totally overpaid.
Obviously the first one can hardly be considered an argument. Yes, Cuddyer was dreadful, but his season was riddled with injuries, and the broken foot especially was a freak occurence. And I can understand if you still don't accept that as an excuse for his bad performance, but the fact that that was last year and now he is performing should be enough to get you off his case.
The frequent comments about Cuddyer's lack of 'clutch' ability are, to my surprise, accurate, at least for this year. Cuddyer's tOPS+ (definition below) with runners in scoring position and 2 outs is 56 (actual OPS is .638), and in "close & late" situations his tOPS+ is 70 (.705). That's why his tOPS+ is 84 (.694) in high leverage situations but is 154 (.948) in low leverage situations .
So it's definitely true that Cuddyer has been bad at key junctures, which is why his WPA is -0.15 despite his otherwise good year. But the thing is: who cares?! Studies have repeatedly shown that clutch skill does not exist, and thus this bad performance should even out over time. And if you don't believe that? Consider that for his career, Cuddyer's tOPS+ is: 98 (.780 OPS) with 2 outs and RISP; 115 (.852) in C&L situations; 114 (.849) in high leverage appearances; and 94 (.772) in low leverage appearances. So, if you believe a player can be clutch, there's no way you can be upset that Cuddyer is having one bad season in that regard.
The last argument, that Cuddyer is being overpaid, is the one I would think would be the strongest. According to Fangraphs' value rating, however, Cuddyer's 1.4 wins above replacement thus far equal a salary of $6.5 million already, only a little short of the $7.67 million he will be paid for the whole year. While that needs to be adjusted since Fangraphs' entire salary system is on a different scale (8 players were worth over $30 million in 2008), even cutting it in half would mean he's on pace to fall just a little shy of his actual contract.
I've just thrown a laundry list of stats at you in an effort to convince you that Michael Cuddyer is having a very good year, and should not be suffering anywhere near the amount of criticism he is getting. He's having his best season--better even than 2006--so give him a break, would you?
**tOPS+ is a statistic used at baseball-reference.com. It measures a player's OPS for that split relative to his overall OPS. A tOPS+ greater than 100 means he did better than usual, while a tOPS+ less than 100 means he did worse than usual. A 100 tOPS+ means he performed exactly in line with overall OPS.
Why is this? There seem to be 3 main arguments: 1) people are stuck on his injury-plagued season in 2008, when he posted measly totals in every stat; 2) he has not performed well in clutch situations; and 3) he is in the middle of a 3-year, $24 million contract that makes him totally overpaid.
Obviously the first one can hardly be considered an argument. Yes, Cuddyer was dreadful, but his season was riddled with injuries, and the broken foot especially was a freak occurence. And I can understand if you still don't accept that as an excuse for his bad performance, but the fact that that was last year and now he is performing should be enough to get you off his case.
The frequent comments about Cuddyer's lack of 'clutch' ability are, to my surprise, accurate, at least for this year. Cuddyer's tOPS+ (definition below) with runners in scoring position and 2 outs is 56 (actual OPS is .638), and in "close & late" situations his tOPS+ is 70 (.705). That's why his tOPS+ is 84 (.694) in high leverage situations but is 154 (.948) in low leverage situations .
So it's definitely true that Cuddyer has been bad at key junctures, which is why his WPA is -0.15 despite his otherwise good year. But the thing is: who cares?! Studies have repeatedly shown that clutch skill does not exist, and thus this bad performance should even out over time. And if you don't believe that? Consider that for his career, Cuddyer's tOPS+ is: 98 (.780 OPS) with 2 outs and RISP; 115 (.852) in C&L situations; 114 (.849) in high leverage appearances; and 94 (.772) in low leverage appearances. So, if you believe a player can be clutch, there's no way you can be upset that Cuddyer is having one bad season in that regard.
The last argument, that Cuddyer is being overpaid, is the one I would think would be the strongest. According to Fangraphs' value rating, however, Cuddyer's 1.4 wins above replacement thus far equal a salary of $6.5 million already, only a little short of the $7.67 million he will be paid for the whole year. While that needs to be adjusted since Fangraphs' entire salary system is on a different scale (8 players were worth over $30 million in 2008), even cutting it in half would mean he's on pace to fall just a little shy of his actual contract.
I've just thrown a laundry list of stats at you in an effort to convince you that Michael Cuddyer is having a very good year, and should not be suffering anywhere near the amount of criticism he is getting. He's having his best season--better even than 2006--so give him a break, would you?
**tOPS+ is a statistic used at baseball-reference.com. It measures a player's OPS for that split relative to his overall OPS. A tOPS+ greater than 100 means he did better than usual, while a tOPS+ less than 100 means he did worse than usual. A 100 tOPS+ means he performed exactly in line with overall OPS.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Subdued by a Sea Creature
The Beluga Whale--a.k.a. Sidney Ponson--pitched a complete game against the Twins while allowing only six hits and a walk. Joe Mauer had two of the hits and Delmon Young also had a good game, going 1-2 with a walk. Overall, though, it was a terrible game.
Yet again, Michael Cuddyer was hitless, going 0-4 and dropping his average to .217. While some hitters, such as Young and Jason Kubel, are starting to show some life, Cuddyer continues to struggle mightily. Over at Nick & Nick's, they suggested that "Ron Gardenhire should give some serious consideration to sitting Cuddyer against right-handed pitchers on occasion until he gets his head straight." At this point, that may not be a bad idea.
Yet again, Michael Cuddyer was hitless, going 0-4 and dropping his average to .217. While some hitters, such as Young and Jason Kubel, are starting to show some life, Cuddyer continues to struggle mightily. Over at Nick & Nick's, they suggested that "Ron Gardenhire should give some serious consideration to sitting Cuddyer against right-handed pitchers on occasion until he gets his head straight." At this point, that may not be a bad idea.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
An Odd Little Game
Jon Lester may have pitched a no-hitter against the Royals tonight, but the Twins' game was also a very interesting one. A few strange things happened: Alexi Casilla hit a three-run home run, the Twins used their entire bench and every relief pitcher except Brian Bass, and Bobby Korecky got a hit.
One negative first, though. Gardenhire finally brings Joe Nathan in for the tenth inning in a non-save situation, which many of us have said he should be doing, but then he does not leave him in there for the eleventh. Nathan threw five (5!) pitches to get the three outs in the tenth inning, yet Ron Gardenhire would rather have Juan Rincon pitching? I don't understand this at all. And, not unpredictably, Rincon had to be yanked after loading the bases with only one out via a double and two walks.
That's where the next story comes. Bobby Korecky, a rookie, pitching in just his sixth major league game, slammed the door, getting two very key outs. To follow it up, he got a single in the bottom of the inning. He had to hit because the Twins had moved Brendan Harris from designated hitter to shortstop, and the Twins had no one left on their bench to pinch-hit. After a Harris single and a Joe Mauer walk, he was the winning run on third with Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer due up. Needless to say, he didn't score, but he did come back and pitch a perfect twelfth inning.
Now, this kind of game reminds me why I like Joe Mauer so much. In the bottom of the ninth, down 6-5, Mauer comes up with two on and one out. He hits a single and ties the game. In the bottom of the twelfth, with the game tied, he walks to move Korecky to third and Harris to second with only one out. What does Justin Morneau do right after Mauer? And Michael Cuddyer? They make the last two outs in both instances without getting a run across. On the night, they went a combined 0-10, stranding 14 Twins on the basepaths. At least Morneau got two walks; Cuddyer went 0-6 with 9 left on base.
Fortunately, an unlikely hero got the winning hit in the bottom of the twelfth inning. After Carlos Gomez singled and moved to second on a groundout and Mike Lamb was intentionally walked, Howie Clark connected for a double just past centerfielder Josh Hamilton. Gomez jogged home to win the game for the Twins.
What Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer could not do, Howie Clark did.
And seriously, WHY did Joe Nathan not pitch a second inning?! Can someone please tell me what Ron Gardenhire was thinking?
One negative first, though. Gardenhire finally brings Joe Nathan in for the tenth inning in a non-save situation, which many of us have said he should be doing, but then he does not leave him in there for the eleventh. Nathan threw five (5!) pitches to get the three outs in the tenth inning, yet Ron Gardenhire would rather have Juan Rincon pitching? I don't understand this at all. And, not unpredictably, Rincon had to be yanked after loading the bases with only one out via a double and two walks.
That's where the next story comes. Bobby Korecky, a rookie, pitching in just his sixth major league game, slammed the door, getting two very key outs. To follow it up, he got a single in the bottom of the inning. He had to hit because the Twins had moved Brendan Harris from designated hitter to shortstop, and the Twins had no one left on their bench to pinch-hit. After a Harris single and a Joe Mauer walk, he was the winning run on third with Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer due up. Needless to say, he didn't score, but he did come back and pitch a perfect twelfth inning.
Now, this kind of game reminds me why I like Joe Mauer so much. In the bottom of the ninth, down 6-5, Mauer comes up with two on and one out. He hits a single and ties the game. In the bottom of the twelfth, with the game tied, he walks to move Korecky to third and Harris to second with only one out. What does Justin Morneau do right after Mauer? And Michael Cuddyer? They make the last two outs in both instances without getting a run across. On the night, they went a combined 0-10, stranding 14 Twins on the basepaths. At least Morneau got two walks; Cuddyer went 0-6 with 9 left on base.
Fortunately, an unlikely hero got the winning hit in the bottom of the twelfth inning. After Carlos Gomez singled and moved to second on a groundout and Mike Lamb was intentionally walked, Howie Clark connected for a double just past centerfielder Josh Hamilton. Gomez jogged home to win the game for the Twins.
What Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer could not do, Howie Clark did.
And seriously, WHY did Joe Nathan not pitch a second inning?! Can someone please tell me what Ron Gardenhire was thinking?
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Injury Notes
Yesterday's game was a good one, with the Twins picking up a 3-0 victory over the Indians. Justin Morneau hit his fifth home run in the first inning and Carlos Gomez added an RBI single in the second, which was all the Twins would need. Joe Nathan continued his flawless start to the year in order to notch his sixth save.
A few injury updates, though, that need attention:
It appears that Kevin Slowey will be ready to come off the disabled list soon, which begs the question of who should be taken out of the rotation. Clearly, Francisco Liriano has been the worst pitcher, but do the Twins want him to continue making Major League starts in order to aid his comeback from Tommy John surgery? Nick Blackburn may be the choice, but he is certainly making it hard with the way he is pitching. After yesterday's 7.2 shutout innings, he lowered his ERA to 2.49. He also got his first Major League win; he did all this despite striking out only one Indian. It will be interesting to see what the Twins do.
Michael Cuddyer could be ready to rejoin the Twins on Friday. When Cuddyer comes back, I think the obvious choice is to send Denard Span right back where he came from. I don't have any problem with him, and I've been rooting for him to do well, but he hasn't performed. Therefore, when there's rumors that Gomez might be sent down instead, it's a little puzzling. If Gomez really begins to struggle, I would much rather see Jason Pridie than Denard Span getting regular starts in center.
And Adam Everett was put on the DL with a shoulder injury, opening a spot on the roster. The Twins used it to call up Brian Buscher, who will start today at third base and will be hitting sixth. Everett's injury gives Gardenhire the perfect opportunity to start getting Nick Punto in the lineup all the time, as he is today, unless Matt Tolbert continues playing lights-out baseball.
Speaking of the lineup today, it looks very different. Joe Mauer is getting a day off, as Mike Redmond takes over catching duties for the day. Morneau is resting from the field, starting at DH, with Mike Lamb moving over to play first. Add in Buscher, who's playing his first game of the year, and Punto, who hasn't played much this year, and the lineup looks drastically different.
A few injury updates, though, that need attention:
It appears that Kevin Slowey will be ready to come off the disabled list soon, which begs the question of who should be taken out of the rotation. Clearly, Francisco Liriano has been the worst pitcher, but do the Twins want him to continue making Major League starts in order to aid his comeback from Tommy John surgery? Nick Blackburn may be the choice, but he is certainly making it hard with the way he is pitching. After yesterday's 7.2 shutout innings, he lowered his ERA to 2.49. He also got his first Major League win; he did all this despite striking out only one Indian. It will be interesting to see what the Twins do.
Michael Cuddyer could be ready to rejoin the Twins on Friday. When Cuddyer comes back, I think the obvious choice is to send Denard Span right back where he came from. I don't have any problem with him, and I've been rooting for him to do well, but he hasn't performed. Therefore, when there's rumors that Gomez might be sent down instead, it's a little puzzling. If Gomez really begins to struggle, I would much rather see Jason Pridie than Denard Span getting regular starts in center.
And Adam Everett was put on the DL with a shoulder injury, opening a spot on the roster. The Twins used it to call up Brian Buscher, who will start today at third base and will be hitting sixth. Everett's injury gives Gardenhire the perfect opportunity to start getting Nick Punto in the lineup all the time, as he is today, unless Matt Tolbert continues playing lights-out baseball.
Speaking of the lineup today, it looks very different. Joe Mauer is getting a day off, as Mike Redmond takes over catching duties for the day. Morneau is resting from the field, starting at DH, with Mike Lamb moving over to play first. Add in Buscher, who's playing his first game of the year, and Punto, who hasn't played much this year, and the lineup looks drastically different.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Cuddyer Update
After starting the season as the only major league team without a player on the DL, the Twins joined the club by placing Michael Cuddyer on the 15-day disabled list with a dislocated finger after the win against the Royals. Of course, Francisco Liriano is already on a rehab stint in the minor leagues while not technically being on the disabled list and Kevin Slowey strained his right bicep yesterday and will miss at least 1 start with the possibility of being placed on the DL at some point. In addition, the Twins whole team has been suffering from the flu all spring, with the latest victim, Brendan Harris, missing last night's game as a result. The Twins called up Keiunta Span to replace Cuddyer on the 25-man roster. I assume with Cuddyer out the Twins' corner outfield and DH spots will be filled by Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, and Craig Monroe in some combination, so at least Kubel figures to get regular playing time with Cuddy out. At first, the choice of Span surprised me, but then I realized it shouldn't have, what with an outfield spot needing to be filled and Gardy's clear preference of Span over Jason Pridie in the spring. I would rather see Pridie get called up, but I don't have a problem with Span and it will be fun to see him make his major league debut whenever it comes.
In case anyone cares, here are their stats through two games at Rochester:
Span: 3-9, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 SB
Pridie: 2-7, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SB
Continuing with the minor league theme, the Beloit Snappers (A ball) opened their season with a 10-5 loss to Kane County while striking out 16 times and committing 4 errors. Former 1st round pick Chris Parmelee started out the season in about the worst way possible, striking out in all 5 of his at bats. At least he didn't ground into any double plays, right?
P.S.- Where do I get myself a Gomez jersey? I love this guy!
In case anyone cares, here are their stats through two games at Rochester:
Span: 3-9, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 SB
Pridie: 2-7, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SB
Continuing with the minor league theme, the Beloit Snappers (A ball) opened their season with a 10-5 loss to Kane County while striking out 16 times and committing 4 errors. Former 1st round pick Chris Parmelee started out the season in about the worst way possible, striking out in all 5 of his at bats. At least he didn't ground into any double plays, right?
P.S.- Where do I get myself a Gomez jersey? I love this guy!
Friday, April 4, 2008
Royals No Longer Unbeaten
The lone remaining unbeaten team fell today, at the hands of the Twins, which means that yet again no team will go unbeaten. I'm still waiting.
But seriously, the Twins played well today against the Royals, and Justin Morneau even collected his first hit of the year. Joe Mauer and Carlos Gomez continued to produce, combining to go 5 for 8 with 2 runs and an RBI. Gomez had two more infield hits, one being a bunt single, but also mashed a solid double, and was electrifying again in stealing two bases. I wouldn't want to be behind the plate with him on first!
Scott Baker had a solid performance, settling down after some early troubles. Despite allowing three runs in the first two innings, he had thrown 41 pitches, with 33 of them being strikes. He was unable to miss bats early, exemplified by Billy Butler's at bat in the first inning in which he fouled off eight pitches, which caused him a lot of trouble. Despite this, he still managed to finish with a very respectable line. Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan followed him with another great set-up and close combination.
The second casualty in two days, Michael Cuddyer left the game in the third inning after sliding awkwardly into third base. Jason Kubel pinch ran for him and ended up scoring. Hopefully, Cuddyer will only be day-to-day, but it would most likely ensure regular at bats for Kubel as either the designated hitter or right fielder if he was out longer. Although, it'd be much better if Gardy just wised up and put Kubel in the line-up over Craig Monroe and Cuddyer isn't injured (incidentally, Monroe went 0-4 with three strikeouts against a left-handed starter).
This was also my first game listening on the radio. It did provide a lot of information, but I found it odd that Gameday actually updated faster than the radio announced things. There must be a significant delay on the radio broadcast.
But seriously, the Twins played well today against the Royals, and Justin Morneau even collected his first hit of the year. Joe Mauer and Carlos Gomez continued to produce, combining to go 5 for 8 with 2 runs and an RBI. Gomez had two more infield hits, one being a bunt single, but also mashed a solid double, and was electrifying again in stealing two bases. I wouldn't want to be behind the plate with him on first!
Scott Baker had a solid performance, settling down after some early troubles. Despite allowing three runs in the first two innings, he had thrown 41 pitches, with 33 of them being strikes. He was unable to miss bats early, exemplified by Billy Butler's at bat in the first inning in which he fouled off eight pitches, which caused him a lot of trouble. Despite this, he still managed to finish with a very respectable line. Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan followed him with another great set-up and close combination.
The second casualty in two days, Michael Cuddyer left the game in the third inning after sliding awkwardly into third base. Jason Kubel pinch ran for him and ended up scoring. Hopefully, Cuddyer will only be day-to-day, but it would most likely ensure regular at bats for Kubel as either the designated hitter or right fielder if he was out longer. Although, it'd be much better if Gardy just wised up and put Kubel in the line-up over Craig Monroe and Cuddyer isn't injured (incidentally, Monroe went 0-4 with three strikeouts against a left-handed starter).
This was also my first game listening on the radio. It did provide a lot of information, but I found it odd that Gameday actually updated faster than the radio announced things. There must be a significant delay on the radio broadcast.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Statistical Predictions
Well, guesses really. But doesn't it sound a lot more official when I call them predictions? Or maybe I should call them projections. Yeah, that really sounds official. So these will be my statistical projections for the Twins players in 2008. You'll probably disagree with some, perhaps all, but I'll have fun looking back in October to see just how dumb I was those six months ago. Without further ado...
Joe Mauer: .307/.394/.482, 18 HR, 89 RBI, 11 SB
Justin Morneau: .288/.360/.553, 36 HR, 122 RBI, 1 SB
Brendan Harris: .272/.349/.406, 11 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB
Adam Everett: .250/.331/.369, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 6 SB
Mike Lamb: .266/.340/.418, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB
Michael Cuddyer: .281/.351/.441, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 7 SB
Carlos Gomez: .248/.317/.379, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 25 SB
Delmon Young: .295/.332/.509, 27 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB
Jason Kubel: .314/.382/.534, 26 HR, 98 RBI, 3 SB
In reality, I thought of these as I typed them, and it took me no more than fifteen minutes. So, there was no research done, not much thought put into it, just gut feelings. And I'm sure that I have a huge bias because of my Twins fandom, but what's wrong with being optimistic?
As a side note, I may do projections for pitchers but it's a lot more up in the air, and I don't want to embarrass myself too much.
Joe Mauer: .307/.394/.482, 18 HR, 89 RBI, 11 SB
Justin Morneau: .288/.360/.553, 36 HR, 122 RBI, 1 SB
Brendan Harris: .272/.349/.406, 11 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB
Adam Everett: .250/.331/.369, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 6 SB
Mike Lamb: .266/.340/.418, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB
Michael Cuddyer: .281/.351/.441, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 7 SB
Carlos Gomez: .248/.317/.379, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 25 SB
Delmon Young: .295/.332/.509, 27 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB
Jason Kubel: .314/.382/.534, 26 HR, 98 RBI, 3 SB
In reality, I thought of these as I typed them, and it took me no more than fifteen minutes. So, there was no research done, not much thought put into it, just gut feelings. And I'm sure that I have a huge bias because of my Twins fandom, but what's wrong with being optimistic?
As a side note, I may do projections for pitchers but it's a lot more up in the air, and I don't want to embarrass myself too much.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Positional Comparisons
There's no doubt it was a tumultuous offseason for Minnesota. Franchise players came and went, and when the dust settled what we had was a team that looked drastically different than the one the Twins had in 2007. But is it better or worse? I thought I'd take a look at the Twins [projected] roster and compare it to last year. Where did the Twins improve? And where did they lose out?
Catcher:
2007- Joe Mauer
2008- Joe Mauer
Well, there was no change here. Hopefully Mauer can bounce back from a relatively disappointing year and produce closer to his 2006 campaign, so I anticipate this position being a little better than last year.
First Base:
2007- Justin Morneau
2008- Justin Morneau
Again, the same player, but now with a new contract. Will Morneau, like Mauer, be able to return to his 2006 form? Will his new financial security have any effect on his play? Either way, I definitely think that he should improve over last year.
Second Base:
2007- Luis Castillo/Nick Punto/Alexi Casilla
2008- Brendan Harris
Harris is undoubtedly better offensively than the Twins' second basemen last year. Even with modest numbers he'll dwarf Punto's and Casilla's stats from 2007; as long as he's not the worst hitter in the league, this position will be better off. That being said, his defense is more questionable, but I think the significant offensive improvement will prove to be more important.
Third Base:
2007- Nick Punto/Luis Rodriguez/Brian Buscher
2008-Mike Lamb
A similar situation to second base, in which Lamb will in all likelihood be an improvement offensively, but potentially a liability defensively. Compared to the third basemen as a whole, Lamb will also be better than what the Twins had in 2008. It would be a little closer if we considered him versus just Buscher, rather than against Nick Putrid. Whoops, I meant Punto.
Shortstop:
2007- Jason Bartlett
2008- Adam Everett
After the blockbuster trade with the Rays, the Twins were left with a void at shortshop, which they shortly filled by signing ex-Astro Adam Everett. A defensive specialist, he is well below average offensively. That being said, his career OPS of .656 is comparable to the production the Twins got last year (Bartlett's stats were dragged down by Casilla's and Punto's time at shortstop). Hopefully, Everett hits around his career averages, which would allow us to overlook his offense for his defense.
Left Field:
2007- Jason Tyner/Jason Kubel/Rondell White
2008- Delmon Young
The biggest part of the aforementioned trade will take over left field duties for the Twins. This should no doubt be an improvement over last year. Even if Young repeats his performance from last year, he would be better than the combination that was trotted out there last year. White was abysmal again, Tyner was predictably underwhelming, and Kubel didn't play there enough to make the left field stats look good. Hopefully, however, Young will hit markedly better than last year.
Center Field:
2007- Torii Hunter
2008- Carlos Gomez/Jason Pridie/Denard Span??
This is the first position where there isn't a clear-cut frontrunner for the starting job in 2008. New acquisitions Gomez and Pridie, along with former first-round pick Denard Span, all have a chance to start on opening day. I don't know how likely Span is to start, as his minor league record doesn't indicate he's ready, but it seems like Gardenhire is high on him. No matter who it is, we can expect a significant downgrade from 2007. Even though there was basically a consensus that Hunter couldn't be re-signed, there should also be a consensus that none of these guys will come close to matching his production.
Right Field:
2007- Michael Cuddyer
2008- Michael Cuddyer
Only the third of the eight positions that will have the same starter as 2008. Cuddyer had a down year after a great 2006, and was given a new multi-year contract this off-season. Along with Mauer, Morneau, Young, and Kubel, he should combine to make a somewhat formidable middle of the lineup that will help make up for the likes of Adam Everett and probably Nick Punto, who Gardenhire will surely find a way to fit in the lineup.
Designated Hitter:
2007- Jason Tyner/Rondell White/Jason Kubel/myriad of others
2008- Jason Kubel
It's about time Jason Kubel gets a regular starting position, and there doesn't seem to be anyone in the way of him this time. Gardenhire has been known to do stranger things that start Craig Monroe at DH, though (for instance, starting Jason Tyner at DH). Kubel should be much better than what was used as an excuse for a DH last year, and I think he will make significant strides toward becoming a very good player.
Well, that wraps up my positional outlook for 2008. More season preview things to come over the next week and a half, including a divisional preview, statistical predictions (which will admittedly be essentially arbitrary guesses, but will certainly be interesting to look back on at the end of the year), and a comparison between the 2007 and 2008 pitchers.
Catcher:
2007- Joe Mauer
2008- Joe Mauer
Well, there was no change here. Hopefully Mauer can bounce back from a relatively disappointing year and produce closer to his 2006 campaign, so I anticipate this position being a little better than last year.
First Base:
2007- Justin Morneau
2008- Justin Morneau
Again, the same player, but now with a new contract. Will Morneau, like Mauer, be able to return to his 2006 form? Will his new financial security have any effect on his play? Either way, I definitely think that he should improve over last year.
Second Base:
2007- Luis Castillo/Nick Punto/Alexi Casilla
2008- Brendan Harris
Harris is undoubtedly better offensively than the Twins' second basemen last year. Even with modest numbers he'll dwarf Punto's and Casilla's stats from 2007; as long as he's not the worst hitter in the league, this position will be better off. That being said, his defense is more questionable, but I think the significant offensive improvement will prove to be more important.
Third Base:
2007- Nick Punto/Luis Rodriguez/Brian Buscher
2008-Mike Lamb
A similar situation to second base, in which Lamb will in all likelihood be an improvement offensively, but potentially a liability defensively. Compared to the third basemen as a whole, Lamb will also be better than what the Twins had in 2008. It would be a little closer if we considered him versus just Buscher, rather than against Nick Putrid. Whoops, I meant Punto.
Shortstop:
2007- Jason Bartlett
2008- Adam Everett
After the blockbuster trade with the Rays, the Twins were left with a void at shortshop, which they shortly filled by signing ex-Astro Adam Everett. A defensive specialist, he is well below average offensively. That being said, his career OPS of .656 is comparable to the production the Twins got last year (Bartlett's stats were dragged down by Casilla's and Punto's time at shortstop). Hopefully, Everett hits around his career averages, which would allow us to overlook his offense for his defense.
Left Field:
2007- Jason Tyner/Jason Kubel/Rondell White
2008- Delmon Young
The biggest part of the aforementioned trade will take over left field duties for the Twins. This should no doubt be an improvement over last year. Even if Young repeats his performance from last year, he would be better than the combination that was trotted out there last year. White was abysmal again, Tyner was predictably underwhelming, and Kubel didn't play there enough to make the left field stats look good. Hopefully, however, Young will hit markedly better than last year.
Center Field:
2007- Torii Hunter
2008- Carlos Gomez/Jason Pridie/Denard Span??
This is the first position where there isn't a clear-cut frontrunner for the starting job in 2008. New acquisitions Gomez and Pridie, along with former first-round pick Denard Span, all have a chance to start on opening day. I don't know how likely Span is to start, as his minor league record doesn't indicate he's ready, but it seems like Gardenhire is high on him. No matter who it is, we can expect a significant downgrade from 2007. Even though there was basically a consensus that Hunter couldn't be re-signed, there should also be a consensus that none of these guys will come close to matching his production.
Right Field:
2007- Michael Cuddyer
2008- Michael Cuddyer
Only the third of the eight positions that will have the same starter as 2008. Cuddyer had a down year after a great 2006, and was given a new multi-year contract this off-season. Along with Mauer, Morneau, Young, and Kubel, he should combine to make a somewhat formidable middle of the lineup that will help make up for the likes of Adam Everett and probably Nick Punto, who Gardenhire will surely find a way to fit in the lineup.
Designated Hitter:
2007- Jason Tyner/Rondell White/Jason Kubel/myriad of others
2008- Jason Kubel
It's about time Jason Kubel gets a regular starting position, and there doesn't seem to be anyone in the way of him this time. Gardenhire has been known to do stranger things that start Craig Monroe at DH, though (for instance, starting Jason Tyner at DH). Kubel should be much better than what was used as an excuse for a DH last year, and I think he will make significant strides toward becoming a very good player.
Well, that wraps up my positional outlook for 2008. More season preview things to come over the next week and a half, including a divisional preview, statistical predictions (which will admittedly be essentially arbitrary guesses, but will certainly be interesting to look back on at the end of the year), and a comparison between the 2007 and 2008 pitchers.
Friday, January 25, 2008
More on the Press Conference
According to Morneau, the negotiations started about a week ago, after the arbitration deal was reached. Both Bill Smith and Justin Morneau repeatedly talked about the timing being right and how fast the deal was reached. Smith also continually mentioned the fact that Morneau and Michael Cuddyer both wanted to stay in Minnesota and that the organization wanted to keep them in Minnesota.
Asked if he was getting right field or centerfield money, Cuddyer said he didn't know but that Gardy "might have just been saying some stuff" regarding his crazy comments about Cuddyer playing center. It didn't really sound like he was too interested despite saying he was up for any challenge. When Bill Smith was asked about Johan Santana, he again pushed the position that they wished to keep him in the organization, but if that didn't work they would have to move forward.
Incidentally, Morneau's six-year deal (confirmed by Morneau) is the longest in team history. The exact figures are still unknown, but it seems to be in the range of $75-$80 million. Cuddyer's deal is for 3 years and approximately $23 million, with a club option for a fourth year.
I agree with Bill Smith, it's great to have these guys signed!
Asked if he was getting right field or centerfield money, Cuddyer said he didn't know but that Gardy "might have just been saying some stuff" regarding his crazy comments about Cuddyer playing center. It didn't really sound like he was too interested despite saying he was up for any challenge. When Bill Smith was asked about Johan Santana, he again pushed the position that they wished to keep him in the organization, but if that didn't work they would have to move forward.
Incidentally, Morneau's six-year deal (confirmed by Morneau) is the longest in team history. The exact figures are still unknown, but it seems to be in the range of $75-$80 million. Cuddyer's deal is for 3 years and approximately $23 million, with a club option for a fourth year.
I agree with Bill Smith, it's great to have these guys signed!
Morneau, Cuddyer Sign Multi-Year Extensions
According to multiple sources, the Twins have signed Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer long-term. A press conference has been announced for 5 PM eastern time, and you can watch it online at kare11.com. According to the TV station's sources, the deals go "deep into the new stadium." For me, this is the most exciting thing that has happened thus far this offseason, even including the Delmon Young and trade the now slightly-tiring Santana Watch. I can't wait to find out the exact length and terms of the deals, but right now I am very impressed with Mr. Smith.
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