The Twins recently finalized a deal in which they will send J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris, and $500,000, to the Orioles for two relief pitching prospects, right-handers Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey. I don't know what the Twins don't like about Hardy, and why they were so against retaining him for another year, but I'm sorely disappointed by the return on this trade.
Despite the negative sentiment coming from the front office regarding Hardy, he was an above average shortstop during his one season with the Twins. While his offensive stats didn't impress anybody, they were only barely below average for his position (wRC+ of 96). And, of course, his defense was tremendous, as it always is. He ranked fifth in the majors among shortstops in UZR (8.1), and fared even better when measured as a rate stat, as he placed second in UZR/150 (12.8) among shortstops with at least 600 innings. This is neither a new insight nor random variation in an unreliable statistic; Hardy's lowest UZR/150 rating in a season is a remarkable +6.6, and calculated for his over 5,000 career innings comes in at +11.
[Edit 12/10/2010 2:30 PM: With FanGraphs just today installing the option for sorting league leaders over multiple years, I figured I'd throw out some more statistics on Hardy's fielding. Since he entered the league in 2005, he ranks first among qualified shortstops in both UZR and UZR/150 by a wide margin. Seeing as how I'm not sure how 'qualified' is determined over multiple years, I changed the minimum innings to 1000 over that time span, which came up with 64 different players. Hardy comes in third in UZR, after Adam Everett and Omar Vizquel, and ranked sixth in UZR/150, behind those two, Mike Aviles, Brendan Ryan, and the top-rated player according to that statistic, none other than Nick Punto.]
What did the Twins pick up in return for Hardy? Jacobson is now a 24-year old who's spent the last three seasons pitching at the two levels of Single-A. While he has posted some solid strikeout numbers (8.3 K/9) and limited his walks (2.78 BB/9), his numbers aren't eye-popping and he has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in his professional career. Additionally, as best as I could tell, he doesn't appear anywhere in the top 20 for Orioles prospects; this site doesn't even mention him as an 'other' when listing their choices, and this site pegs him as the fourth-best right-handed relief pitching prospect in the Orioles' minor league system. Fourth-best initially sounds good, but not with that many qualifiers, and those ones specifically, after it.
Mentions of Hoey as a true prospect are even harder to find, and that's with good reason. Hoey is a 27-year old relief pitcher who's been bouncing between AA and AAA since 2006, with brief--and horrific--major league stints in 2006 and 2007. While his minor league strikeout numbers are gaudy throughout his minor league stops (10.3 K/9 total, so are his walk totals (4.4 BB/9). He's a prototypical bullpen arm, a hard-throwing right-hander, but the Twins already have someone who's similar in that respect but has performed better (Anthony Slama), and they've been hesitant to give him much of an opportunity, so I'm not sure why they targeted Hoey.
So, while Hoey and Jacobson don't bring much value as prospects, they also don't seem to provide much in the way of immediate help. That's what vexes me about this deal: the Twins are trading away Hardy, an important piece for their potential 2011 roster, and not really improving the bullpen much, if at all. The only other explanation would be a salary dump, as Hardy is expected to make between $6 and $7 million, and the two pitchers they received will be receiving hundreds of thousands of dollars at worst. The only part of the deal I do understand is getting rid of $1.25 million of the $1.75 million the Twins stupidly owe to Brendan Harris in 2011.
Hardy's reputation as a defensive wizard is well-deserved, and his hitting is good enough to make him quite a valuable player. And let us not forget the offensive potential Hardy displayed with the Brewerse in 2007 and especially 2008, when he put up a .355 wOBA. Sure, that was two seasons ago, and his recent performance doesn't suggest he can replicate that, but even in his current incarnation he's worth more than the Twins valued him. I was resolved to the fact that the Twins did not want Hardy, but I was hoping they would get a real prospect or preferably some decent Major League ready talent. Instead they got neither and opened up some big question marks in their middle infield.
Showing posts with label brendan harris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label brendan harris. Show all posts
Friday, December 10, 2010
Saturday, August 1, 2009
July in Review
The Twins played their fifth extra inning game of their July schedule last night, and it ended in a disappointing manner. Despite leading 5-2, the Twins lost to the Angels 11-5 in 11 innings. Bobby Keppel and Jesse Crain were the bullpen culprits, combining to allow the first 8 batters to reach in the final inning. It was an ugly loss, so let's hope the Twins can start August on a better foot.
Record: 12-12
Best record at any point (games above .500): 47-44
Worst record at any point (games below .500): 48-50
Days in first (and biggest lead): 0 (2.0 GB)
Days in last (and furthest out of first): 0 (5.0 GB)
Longest win streak: 4 games
Longest losing streak: 4 games
Runs scored/runs against: 128/140
Most runs scored/most runs allowed: 13/16
Shutouts/times shut out: 0/0
Extra inning games: 5
Longest game: 16 innings
Hitter of the month: Justin Morneau (93 AB, 16 R, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 15 BB:19 K, .280/.380/.559)
Despite hitting worse than he has for the year as a whole, Morneau finally managed to earn hitter of the month honors in 2009. Yet again it was a close contest between he and Jason Kubel, but Morneau's extra playing time was what pushed me in his favor. In the month, Morneau had two 2-homer games and set a career high with 7 RBIs in one game. He didn't end the month well, though, going 0 for his last 12 and striking out 5 times.
Bizarro World hitter of the month: Brendan Harris (75 AB, 8 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB:17 K, .187/.218/.307)
The whole middle infield was pretty awful this July (as with the entire year), so I could have chosen Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla pretty easily. Punto, though, had slightly better numbers than Harris, and Casilla's 7-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 5 stolen bases, combined with his less time in the lineup, made Harris the choice. While many people, myself included, aren't sure how much of an upgrade Orlando Cabrera will be, it's pretty clear from looking at their July stats that a move of some kind was necessary.
Pitcher of the month: Matt Guerrier (2-0, 16.1 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 0.49/0.55)
Guerrier was magnificent this month, and only in his final outing did he allow a run--unfortunately it was a game-tying homer from Mike Napoli. But enough with the negative, as Guerrier allowed less than a baserunner every other inning. It's all part of an excellent year for Guerrier, who's quietly accumulated an ERA of 2.09 and a WHIP of 0.79. Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan, who combine with Guerrier to be the only legitimate relief options, also had very good months.
Bizarro World pitcher of the month: R.A. Dickey (0-1, 17 IP, 28 H, 9 BB, 9 K, 7.94/2.18)
While the few good relievers the Twins have were pitching very well, the rest of the bullpen was lobbing batting practice to opposing hitters. Dickey, Jesse Crain, Bobby Keppel, Kevin Mulvey, and Brian Duensing combined to throw 57 innings and give up 76 hits and 44 runs, while also walking 29 batters, the same number they struck out. Dickey was the worst of the bunch, allowing more than 2 baserunners per inning and giving up more than 3 runs on four different occasions.
Record: 12-12
Best record at any point (games above .500): 47-44
Worst record at any point (games below .500): 48-50
Days in first (and biggest lead): 0 (2.0 GB)
Days in last (and furthest out of first): 0 (5.0 GB)
Longest win streak: 4 games
Longest losing streak: 4 games
Runs scored/runs against: 128/140
Most runs scored/most runs allowed: 13/16
Shutouts/times shut out: 0/0
Extra inning games: 5
Longest game: 16 innings
Hitter of the month: Justin Morneau (93 AB, 16 R, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 15 BB:19 K, .280/.380/.559)
Despite hitting worse than he has for the year as a whole, Morneau finally managed to earn hitter of the month honors in 2009. Yet again it was a close contest between he and Jason Kubel, but Morneau's extra playing time was what pushed me in his favor. In the month, Morneau had two 2-homer games and set a career high with 7 RBIs in one game. He didn't end the month well, though, going 0 for his last 12 and striking out 5 times.
Bizarro World hitter of the month: Brendan Harris (75 AB, 8 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB:17 K, .187/.218/.307)
The whole middle infield was pretty awful this July (as with the entire year), so I could have chosen Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla pretty easily. Punto, though, had slightly better numbers than Harris, and Casilla's 7-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 5 stolen bases, combined with his less time in the lineup, made Harris the choice. While many people, myself included, aren't sure how much of an upgrade Orlando Cabrera will be, it's pretty clear from looking at their July stats that a move of some kind was necessary.
Pitcher of the month: Matt Guerrier (2-0, 16.1 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 0.49/0.55)
Guerrier was magnificent this month, and only in his final outing did he allow a run--unfortunately it was a game-tying homer from Mike Napoli. But enough with the negative, as Guerrier allowed less than a baserunner every other inning. It's all part of an excellent year for Guerrier, who's quietly accumulated an ERA of 2.09 and a WHIP of 0.79. Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan, who combine with Guerrier to be the only legitimate relief options, also had very good months.
Bizarro World pitcher of the month: R.A. Dickey (0-1, 17 IP, 28 H, 9 BB, 9 K, 7.94/2.18)
While the few good relievers the Twins have were pitching very well, the rest of the bullpen was lobbing batting practice to opposing hitters. Dickey, Jesse Crain, Bobby Keppel, Kevin Mulvey, and Brian Duensing combined to throw 57 innings and give up 76 hits and 44 runs, while also walking 29 batters, the same number they struck out. Dickey was the worst of the bunch, allowing more than 2 baserunners per inning and giving up more than 3 runs on four different occasions.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Twins get Orlando Cabrera
As was rumored very frequently over the past week, the Twins have finally finished a trade for Oakland Athletics' shortstop Orlando Cabrera. This certainly didn't come out of nowhere, meaning most people have already decided whether or not this would be a good addition before it actually happened. What I said previously was: "I think it would be a mistake to trade for Orlando Cabrera, unless it were just a very marginal prospect, because he figures to be only a marginal upgrade."
I went on to say that he would be a little bit more of an upgrade if he took Nick Punto's spot in the lineup, rather than Brendan Harris'. I'm trying to talk myself into Cabrera, but I just don't think he's going to make that big of a difference. However, with Freddy Sanchez traded to the Giants (for much more than the Twins would have--or should have--given up), and Marco Scutaro seemingly not available unless Roy Halladay is traded, I'm happy the Twins made a move that was at least a slight improvement (as opposed to, say, grabbing David Eckstein).
Now, with Cabrera actually acquired, I'm going to delve much more into the statistics than I did in my last discussion of him. His offense is not so good, but that makes him many times better than Punto, and a tad better than Harris. I realize I'm sort of just ignoring Alexi Casilla in this discussion, but that's because I'm assuming he'll be sent to Rochester to make room for the new acquisition. If Ron Gardenhire puts him in the #2 spot, as I presume he will, that would be a mistake, since his OBP is only .318 (and .322 for his career). Of course, it won't be nearly the mistake that having Casilla or Tolbert there was.
Meanwhile, his normally good defense (5.0 UZR/150 career) has taken a hit this year. He has rated as a pretty sub-par shortstop in 2009 (-9.6 UZR/150), and he's already played almost 900 innings there this season, which makes it hard to blame on a small sample. In fact, according to UZR, Harris has been a significantly better shortstop this year. It's bold, certainly, but maybe it'd be a good idea to try Harris at short and Cabrera at second base. Cabrera played 3 innings at second in 2000, and otherwise hasn't played there since 1998.
I really have no credentials to be judging how hard it would be for Cabrera to adjust to the position, so I won't try. All I'll say is the Twins should give it a shot if they think its doable. Now, I know they never will, and since Gardy hates Harris at 2B, I think that means Punto will still be playing every day.
So, I've talked about Cabrera plenty, but what about the player the Twins traded to the Athletics: Tyler Ladendorf? Ladendorf is a 21-year-old shortstop who was the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2008, and was currently playing at Low-A Beloit. He was hitting pretty poorly (.233/.292/.267) but that was in just 65 plate appearances, so you can't make too much of it. He was promoted to Beloit earlier this year after mashing for 74 plate appearances in Elizabethton (.410/.500/.721). He was ranked #32 among Twins prospects by Aaron Gleeman, but middle infield is a very weak position throughout the organization and he was considered a good prospect by many people.
My overall reaction to the deal is a slight thumbs up. With everything that's been going on--from Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan's comments to groaning fans--I'm glad the Twins were able to put something together. Additionally, it's something that has the potential to help the team, but only if Gardenhire plays it the right way (he almost certainly won't). And they didn't give up anything great to obtain Cabrera. At this point, only time will tell if it was the right move.
I went on to say that he would be a little bit more of an upgrade if he took Nick Punto's spot in the lineup, rather than Brendan Harris'. I'm trying to talk myself into Cabrera, but I just don't think he's going to make that big of a difference. However, with Freddy Sanchez traded to the Giants (for much more than the Twins would have--or should have--given up), and Marco Scutaro seemingly not available unless Roy Halladay is traded, I'm happy the Twins made a move that was at least a slight improvement (as opposed to, say, grabbing David Eckstein).
Now, with Cabrera actually acquired, I'm going to delve much more into the statistics than I did in my last discussion of him. His offense is not so good, but that makes him many times better than Punto, and a tad better than Harris. I realize I'm sort of just ignoring Alexi Casilla in this discussion, but that's because I'm assuming he'll be sent to Rochester to make room for the new acquisition. If Ron Gardenhire puts him in the #2 spot, as I presume he will, that would be a mistake, since his OBP is only .318 (and .322 for his career). Of course, it won't be nearly the mistake that having Casilla or Tolbert there was.
Meanwhile, his normally good defense (5.0 UZR/150 career) has taken a hit this year. He has rated as a pretty sub-par shortstop in 2009 (-9.6 UZR/150), and he's already played almost 900 innings there this season, which makes it hard to blame on a small sample. In fact, according to UZR, Harris has been a significantly better shortstop this year. It's bold, certainly, but maybe it'd be a good idea to try Harris at short and Cabrera at second base. Cabrera played 3 innings at second in 2000, and otherwise hasn't played there since 1998.
I really have no credentials to be judging how hard it would be for Cabrera to adjust to the position, so I won't try. All I'll say is the Twins should give it a shot if they think its doable. Now, I know they never will, and since Gardy hates Harris at 2B, I think that means Punto will still be playing every day.
So, I've talked about Cabrera plenty, but what about the player the Twins traded to the Athletics: Tyler Ladendorf? Ladendorf is a 21-year-old shortstop who was the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2008, and was currently playing at Low-A Beloit. He was hitting pretty poorly (.233/.292/.267) but that was in just 65 plate appearances, so you can't make too much of it. He was promoted to Beloit earlier this year after mashing for 74 plate appearances in Elizabethton (.410/.500/.721). He was ranked #32 among Twins prospects by Aaron Gleeman, but middle infield is a very weak position throughout the organization and he was considered a good prospect by many people.
My overall reaction to the deal is a slight thumbs up. With everything that's been going on--from Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan's comments to groaning fans--I'm glad the Twins were able to put something together. Additionally, it's something that has the potential to help the team, but only if Gardenhire plays it the right way (he almost certainly won't). And they didn't give up anything great to obtain Cabrera. At this point, only time will tell if it was the right move.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
GM Analysis: Trades
On September 14, 2007, Twin #1 made the inaugural post on this blog. About 12 hours earlier, Terry Ryan had announced his resignation from the general manager position that he held since the early 1990s. The Twins announced that his successor would be his former right-hand man, assistant GM Bill Smith. In his first offseason, Smith guided the Twins through tough situations with Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. The team finished his first season at the helm in a tie for first place, but missed the playoffs when they lost the memorable one-game playoff against the White Sox. The following winter was much quieter than his first, with the biggest move being the signing of Joe Crede in late February. With the trade deadline fast approaching, I thought now would be a good time to take a more detailed look at Smith's (mostly underwhelming) work thus far.
November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.
November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.
January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.
August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.
So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.
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November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.
November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.
January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.
August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.
So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.
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Monday, July 13, 2009
The Second Base Experiment
I was browsing through my daily baseball websites when I saw an article on Fangraphs regarding the Kansas City Royals' trade for Yuniesky Betancourt. The main point of that article was to point out what a bad player Betancourt is (he "doesn't hit for power, walk, take coaching well, field, or keep himself in shape"). But what struck me was the first line: "The Royals desperately needed a shortstop. Their collective group was batting a cool .208/.234/.281 [now at .210/.242/.275] with awful defense..."
The thing about that is, that's actually almost equivalent to what Twins second basemen have done in 2009. As bad as those Royal shortstops have been, Twins second basemen have combined to hit .191/.271/.243, resulting in the worst OPS (.514) at any position for any team in the big leagues. Royals shortstops narrowly beat them out at .518, although the Twins second basemen are ahead of them in wOBA (.243 to .236). No other team's position has an OPS lower than .570 or a wOBA lower than .256.
So on the hitting side, I think it's clear that these two groups have been the worst in the league. For the Royals, the culprits have been: Willie Bloomquist (126 PA, .729 OPS, .330 wOBA), Mike Aviles (123, .473, .212), Tony Pena (53, .118, .118), Luis Hernandez (48, .355, .167), and Alberto Callaspo (5, .650, .320); for the Twins: Matt Tolbert (140, .504, .237), Alexi Casilla (121, .467, .221), Nick Punto (66, .686, .336), and Brendan Harris (47, .437, .187). Yes, as surprising as it may be, Harris' time at second was actually the most abysmal.
(As a side note, check out Tony Pena's offensive (in both senses) stats over the past two years and tell me he's not one of the worst hitters ever.)
The Royals SS have combined for 15 walks and 72 strikeouts, a ratio only Delmon Young wouldn't be embarrased by. Meanwhile, the Twins 2B have accumulated just 12 extra-base hits in 374 plate appearances. All of it adds up to some pretty awful performances.
How about that "awful defense" from the Royals shortstops? That should put the Twins over the top, right? Fangraphs doesn't have UZR totals for teams, so we'll have to consider individual performances, which of course causes problems with small samples. Bloomquist (-14.0 UZR/150 this season) is a bad defensive shortstop for his career, but that number is most likely a little exaggerated. Aviles (-8.0) has probably not been nearly that bad, as he rated at 31.6 UZR/150 over almost 750 innings last season. Hernandez (1.7) doesn't have many innings in his career, so I'll just assume that's fairly accurate. Pena's number (-15.4) is almost certainly way off, as before this year he'd logged just short of 2000 innings at shortstop and sported a 14.6 UZR/150.
The Twins defense at second, meanwhile, has been legitimately awful this year. Punto's (13.0) been the bright spot and his career numbers there are good, so it may be a good estimate. Harris (-20.5) and Casilla (-20.1) have been awful this year, and are bad second basemen for their careers, meaning those aren't necessarily too far off. Tolbert (-11.1) has limited innings for his career, so you have to take his value for what it is, and that's not good.
Between their horrible defense and humiliating offense, Twins second basemen have laid claim to being the worst position in the big leagues to this point. Swapping Tolbert for Casilla probably won't solve that problem, as Casilla's been part of it to this point, but I definitely would rather have him than Tolbert.
[Fangraphs also had a good read on Twins prospect Rene Tosoni]
The thing about that is, that's actually almost equivalent to what Twins second basemen have done in 2009. As bad as those Royal shortstops have been, Twins second basemen have combined to hit .191/.271/.243, resulting in the worst OPS (.514) at any position for any team in the big leagues. Royals shortstops narrowly beat them out at .518, although the Twins second basemen are ahead of them in wOBA (.243 to .236). No other team's position has an OPS lower than .570 or a wOBA lower than .256.
So on the hitting side, I think it's clear that these two groups have been the worst in the league. For the Royals, the culprits have been: Willie Bloomquist (126 PA, .729 OPS, .330 wOBA), Mike Aviles (123, .473, .212), Tony Pena (53, .118, .118), Luis Hernandez (48, .355, .167), and Alberto Callaspo (5, .650, .320); for the Twins: Matt Tolbert (140, .504, .237), Alexi Casilla (121, .467, .221), Nick Punto (66, .686, .336), and Brendan Harris (47, .437, .187). Yes, as surprising as it may be, Harris' time at second was actually the most abysmal.
(As a side note, check out Tony Pena's offensive (in both senses) stats over the past two years and tell me he's not one of the worst hitters ever.)
The Royals SS have combined for 15 walks and 72 strikeouts, a ratio only Delmon Young wouldn't be embarrased by. Meanwhile, the Twins 2B have accumulated just 12 extra-base hits in 374 plate appearances. All of it adds up to some pretty awful performances.
How about that "awful defense" from the Royals shortstops? That should put the Twins over the top, right? Fangraphs doesn't have UZR totals for teams, so we'll have to consider individual performances, which of course causes problems with small samples. Bloomquist (-14.0 UZR/150 this season) is a bad defensive shortstop for his career, but that number is most likely a little exaggerated. Aviles (-8.0) has probably not been nearly that bad, as he rated at 31.6 UZR/150 over almost 750 innings last season. Hernandez (1.7) doesn't have many innings in his career, so I'll just assume that's fairly accurate. Pena's number (-15.4) is almost certainly way off, as before this year he'd logged just short of 2000 innings at shortstop and sported a 14.6 UZR/150.
The Twins defense at second, meanwhile, has been legitimately awful this year. Punto's (13.0) been the bright spot and his career numbers there are good, so it may be a good estimate. Harris (-20.5) and Casilla (-20.1) have been awful this year, and are bad second basemen for their careers, meaning those aren't necessarily too far off. Tolbert (-11.1) has limited innings for his career, so you have to take his value for what it is, and that's not good.
Between their horrible defense and humiliating offense, Twins second basemen have laid claim to being the worst position in the big leagues to this point. Swapping Tolbert for Casilla probably won't solve that problem, as Casilla's been part of it to this point, but I definitely would rather have him than Tolbert.
[Fangraphs also had a good read on Twins prospect Rene Tosoni]
Monday, July 6, 2009
A real bad inning
I just watched the condensed game from Sunday on MLB.com, and Brendan Harris had quite the forgettable inning. In the fourth inning, the Twins scored 6 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks, yet Harris managed to make 2 outs in the inning. In fact, he was the only Twin to come to the plate in the inning and not reach base, since Jason Kubel got thrown out attempting to steal second.
And later in the game he struck out with 2 outs and the bases loaded.
And later in the game he struck out with 2 outs and the bases loaded.
Monday, April 27, 2009
The Struggles of a Second Baseman
After injuries decimated the Twins' infield early in the 2008 season, Alexi Casilla got an undeserved call-up from Rochester, where he was hitting just .257/.344/.316 at the time. Though age could be named as a factor for his poor performance, the fact was that he had also proven himself unable to hit AAA pitching over the last two seasons. Luckily for Casilla, the Twins had so many injuries that they had to call him up as a last resort anyways, and luckily for the Twins, Casilla proved at first to be the answer at second base. He hit .313/.351/.424 through his first 62 games (273 PA), which would have ranked him in the top half of second basemen for OPS despite hitting in the AL's most pitcher friendly park of 2008. Unfortunately, he injured his finger on July 28th and went on the DL the next day under the assumption that he would miss the rest of the season. Surprisingly, though, Casilla returned to the lineup less than a month later, but hit only .225/.299/.289 over the final month and a half of the season. For someone with his track record, those numbers should not have been surprising, especially after rushing back from a finger injury that could have been affecting his performance. Nonetheless, it was pretty discouraging and disappointing after his impressive play from May to July. The one part of Casilla's play that remained notable was his plate discipline, as he maintained a 15:20 BB:K ratio even after coming back from his injury. In his minor league career, Casilla had always shown a good eye, so the continuation of this skill into the major leagues was good to see.
Thus far, 2009 has been an absolute disaster for Casilla. He ranks in the bottom 10 in MLB for basically every important statistic: OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, and value runs. Even his normally good BB:K ratio has suffered, with 2 walks and 9 strikeouts so far this season. He doesn't seem to be making good contact so far this season either, with a meager 10.2 LD% and a league-worst 50 IFFB%. This is most likely partially the result of his 58% jump in O-Swing% and 25% jump overall Swing%, which indicate that he's being much less selective at the plate. These greater number of swings have also come with a lower contact rate, down from 91% to 83% this year. Take his anemic offense in combination with his at best average defense (-0.3 UZR in 2008, -1.2 so far in 2009), and you have a pretty valueless player who has been worth -$2.4 million in 2009. Combined with his poor finish to the 2009 season and his minor league track record, these numbers show a disturbing trend, as it seems that the Casilla of late 2008 and 2009 is more likely the true player than the one who played so well from May to July last year. If that is the case, then clearly the Twins can not continue with Casilla at 2nd base, and fortunately they already have a better option in Brendan Harris. Harris has proven to be a near league average hitter with a career .325 wOBA, which is higher than even Casilla's supposed great season last year. Though his defense at second base has been sub-par, it's not nearly bad enough for Casilla to be playing over him.
In the end, Casilla should not be playing every day for the time being. I'm not sure if he has any options left, but if he does AAA is a good place for him. He never really deserved the call-up in the first place, and is showing why right now. Otherwise, a bench spot as a pinch runner and occasional starter at second and short is where he should be, with Harris getting the bulk of the starts at 2nd base. Casilla is still only 24 years old, so he has plenty of time to improve, but right now the Twins need to put the player who gives them the best opportunity to win on the field.
Thus far, 2009 has been an absolute disaster for Casilla. He ranks in the bottom 10 in MLB for basically every important statistic: OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, and value runs. Even his normally good BB:K ratio has suffered, with 2 walks and 9 strikeouts so far this season. He doesn't seem to be making good contact so far this season either, with a meager 10.2 LD% and a league-worst 50 IFFB%. This is most likely partially the result of his 58% jump in O-Swing% and 25% jump overall Swing%, which indicate that he's being much less selective at the plate. These greater number of swings have also come with a lower contact rate, down from 91% to 83% this year. Take his anemic offense in combination with his at best average defense (-0.3 UZR in 2008, -1.2 so far in 2009), and you have a pretty valueless player who has been worth -$2.4 million in 2009. Combined with his poor finish to the 2009 season and his minor league track record, these numbers show a disturbing trend, as it seems that the Casilla of late 2008 and 2009 is more likely the true player than the one who played so well from May to July last year. If that is the case, then clearly the Twins can not continue with Casilla at 2nd base, and fortunately they already have a better option in Brendan Harris. Harris has proven to be a near league average hitter with a career .325 wOBA, which is higher than even Casilla's supposed great season last year. Though his defense at second base has been sub-par, it's not nearly bad enough for Casilla to be playing over him.
In the end, Casilla should not be playing every day for the time being. I'm not sure if he has any options left, but if he does AAA is a good place for him. He never really deserved the call-up in the first place, and is showing why right now. Otherwise, a bench spot as a pinch runner and occasional starter at second and short is where he should be, with Harris getting the bulk of the starts at 2nd base. Casilla is still only 24 years old, so he has plenty of time to improve, but right now the Twins need to put the player who gives them the best opportunity to win on the field.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Casilla on the DL
Suddenly this has a huge impact. Now Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, and Brian Buscher will seemingly be playing everyday, with Adam Everett periodically filling in for one (particularly for Buscher against lefties). Yes, that Adam Everett. He's finally back after spending the last two months on the DL and subsequently rehabbing his injury. Immediately after being outrighted to the minors, the Twins changed course and he was added to the Major League roster due to Alexi Casilla's finger injury. I don't know about you, but I look at the lineup now and see a huge void. It appears Nick Punto will hit second and I don't like that at all. I think the best thing to do would be to move Joe Mauer back to the number two spot, but I can't see Gardy doing that at this point.
And why not move Harris back to second base and put Punto at shortstop? Gardy has indicated Harris will play short and Punto second, which doesn't make much sense. Punto is a very superior defender so shouldn't he be at the more demanding position? Everyone agrees Harris is very stretched at shortstop. Is his inability to execute the double play from second base so bad that he should play short of Punto? I guess Gardy thinks so...
And why not move Harris back to second base and put Punto at shortstop? Gardy has indicated Harris will play short and Punto second, which doesn't make much sense. Punto is a very superior defender so shouldn't he be at the more demanding position? Everyone agrees Harris is very stretched at shortstop. Is his inability to execute the double play from second base so bad that he should play short of Punto? I guess Gardy thinks so...
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Offseason Trade Review
On November 28th, 2007, LaVelle E. Neal III reported a potential blockbuster trade between the Twins and the newly-renamed Rays. A day earlier, I had posted about some trade chatter involving the same two teams and Boof Bonser, but what actually occured was much different. The original trade was reported to be OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris, and OF Jason Pridie to the Twins in exchange for SP Matt Garza, RP Juan Rincon, and SS Jason Bartlett. At the end of the day, some lingering injury concerns had forced Rincon out of the deal and pitching prospect Eduardo Morlan into the deal before it became official. At the time, many Twins fans were excited to get Young, who was immediately expected to replace Torii Hunter's bat and hit 30-40 home runs. Most people had no problem seeing Garza leave if it was in exchange for such a great offensive talent, especially with the supposed clashes that Garza had with the Twins' coaching staff. At the time, I wrote that "I liked Garza, but getting Young back for him is a great deal." Garza's clashes seemingly have continued, as evidenced by his on-field argument with catcher Dionner Navarro, but his results have made fans willing to overlook his faults. Garza has a 3.47 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 90.7 innings. His strikeouts are down so far this season, but he still has 2:1 K:BB ratio and has been especially excellent recently, throwing 29 innings in his last 4 starts while giving up 16 hits and 5 earned runs, walking 4, and striking out 24 (including a 1-hit, 10 K complete game).
Delmon Young, on the other hand, has a very dissapointing overall line of .284/.332/.385, but there are still some promising things underneath that underwhelming line. To start, Young's walk rate, and consequently his OBP, have significantly improved from last year, going from a .028 IsoD to a .048 IsoD. Also, he has heated up since the calendar turned to June, as his line since June 1 sits at .330/.354/.495 in 96 plate appearances. His walk rate was way down in June, but that could be due to a small sample size, just as his good numbers could be. The numbers show that he has been improving recently, but really all we know is that he was crowned as the next Frank Robinson way too soon, and then written off way too early after his early season slump.
The other four players in the deal have all underperformed for their new teams thus far. Jason Bartlett was placed on the DL today after struggling as the Rays' starting shortstop throughout the first half of the season. With an atrocious .256/.299/.293 batting line, you certainly can't give any of the credit for the Rays' turnaround to this former Twin. He has stolen 18 bases at an 86% success rate and his range as usual has been excellent, but there's really no excuse for hitting like he has unless you're Ozzie Smith. Harris, on the other hand, has been the only Twins' middle infielder to stay on the Major League roster the entire season, with Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Adam Everett all hitting the DL and Casilla spending time in Rochester. Of course, Harris has used that opportunity to hit only a little better than Bartlett while playing much worse defense. For some reason, people have been under the impression that Harris has played better since moving to shortstop, but his OPS there is actually 63 points lower there than at second base. Also, his OPS in June was only .649, though that was 40 points higher than in May.
The final two pieces of the deal were two minor leaguers, Jason Pridie and Eduardo Morlan. After putting up his first decent year in the minors since 2004 last year, Pridie has returned to the ways of a career .742 OPS minor leaguer. He has hit .235/.272/.361 with 5 homers and 16 stolen bases in 84 games at Rochester. His counterpart in a sense, Morlan, has fared no better, though for a different reason. Morlan, who struck out 99 in 69.2 innings in 2007, threw only 14.2 mediocre innings at AA this season before being placed on the DL with an injury.
All in all, it is still too early to give answer the question of who got the better end of the deal. However, it is still clear that the stars of the deal were Garza and Young, as the other four players do their best to show that they are not major league caliber players. Despite the fact that Garza has had the much better results thus far this season, there is still plenty of time for Young to prove that he was worthy of his billing as the top prospect in baseball a couple years back.
Delmon Young, on the other hand, has a very dissapointing overall line of .284/.332/.385, but there are still some promising things underneath that underwhelming line. To start, Young's walk rate, and consequently his OBP, have significantly improved from last year, going from a .028 IsoD to a .048 IsoD. Also, he has heated up since the calendar turned to June, as his line since June 1 sits at .330/.354/.495 in 96 plate appearances. His walk rate was way down in June, but that could be due to a small sample size, just as his good numbers could be. The numbers show that he has been improving recently, but really all we know is that he was crowned as the next Frank Robinson way too soon, and then written off way too early after his early season slump.
The other four players in the deal have all underperformed for their new teams thus far. Jason Bartlett was placed on the DL today after struggling as the Rays' starting shortstop throughout the first half of the season. With an atrocious .256/.299/.293 batting line, you certainly can't give any of the credit for the Rays' turnaround to this former Twin. He has stolen 18 bases at an 86% success rate and his range as usual has been excellent, but there's really no excuse for hitting like he has unless you're Ozzie Smith. Harris, on the other hand, has been the only Twins' middle infielder to stay on the Major League roster the entire season, with Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Adam Everett all hitting the DL and Casilla spending time in Rochester. Of course, Harris has used that opportunity to hit only a little better than Bartlett while playing much worse defense. For some reason, people have been under the impression that Harris has played better since moving to shortstop, but his OPS there is actually 63 points lower there than at second base. Also, his OPS in June was only .649, though that was 40 points higher than in May.
The final two pieces of the deal were two minor leaguers, Jason Pridie and Eduardo Morlan. After putting up his first decent year in the minors since 2004 last year, Pridie has returned to the ways of a career .742 OPS minor leaguer. He has hit .235/.272/.361 with 5 homers and 16 stolen bases in 84 games at Rochester. His counterpart in a sense, Morlan, has fared no better, though for a different reason. Morlan, who struck out 99 in 69.2 innings in 2007, threw only 14.2 mediocre innings at AA this season before being placed on the DL with an injury.
All in all, it is still too early to give answer the question of who got the better end of the deal. However, it is still clear that the stars of the deal were Garza and Young, as the other four players do their best to show that they are not major league caliber players. Despite the fact that Garza has had the much better results thus far this season, there is still plenty of time for Young to prove that he was worthy of his billing as the top prospect in baseball a couple years back.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Statistical Predictions
Well, guesses really. But doesn't it sound a lot more official when I call them predictions? Or maybe I should call them projections. Yeah, that really sounds official. So these will be my statistical projections for the Twins players in 2008. You'll probably disagree with some, perhaps all, but I'll have fun looking back in October to see just how dumb I was those six months ago. Without further ado...
Joe Mauer: .307/.394/.482, 18 HR, 89 RBI, 11 SB
Justin Morneau: .288/.360/.553, 36 HR, 122 RBI, 1 SB
Brendan Harris: .272/.349/.406, 11 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB
Adam Everett: .250/.331/.369, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 6 SB
Mike Lamb: .266/.340/.418, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB
Michael Cuddyer: .281/.351/.441, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 7 SB
Carlos Gomez: .248/.317/.379, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 25 SB
Delmon Young: .295/.332/.509, 27 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB
Jason Kubel: .314/.382/.534, 26 HR, 98 RBI, 3 SB
In reality, I thought of these as I typed them, and it took me no more than fifteen minutes. So, there was no research done, not much thought put into it, just gut feelings. And I'm sure that I have a huge bias because of my Twins fandom, but what's wrong with being optimistic?
As a side note, I may do projections for pitchers but it's a lot more up in the air, and I don't want to embarrass myself too much.
Joe Mauer: .307/.394/.482, 18 HR, 89 RBI, 11 SB
Justin Morneau: .288/.360/.553, 36 HR, 122 RBI, 1 SB
Brendan Harris: .272/.349/.406, 11 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB
Adam Everett: .250/.331/.369, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 6 SB
Mike Lamb: .266/.340/.418, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB
Michael Cuddyer: .281/.351/.441, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 7 SB
Carlos Gomez: .248/.317/.379, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 25 SB
Delmon Young: .295/.332/.509, 27 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB
Jason Kubel: .314/.382/.534, 26 HR, 98 RBI, 3 SB
In reality, I thought of these as I typed them, and it took me no more than fifteen minutes. So, there was no research done, not much thought put into it, just gut feelings. And I'm sure that I have a huge bias because of my Twins fandom, but what's wrong with being optimistic?
As a side note, I may do projections for pitchers but it's a lot more up in the air, and I don't want to embarrass myself too much.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Positional Comparisons
There's no doubt it was a tumultuous offseason for Minnesota. Franchise players came and went, and when the dust settled what we had was a team that looked drastically different than the one the Twins had in 2007. But is it better or worse? I thought I'd take a look at the Twins [projected] roster and compare it to last year. Where did the Twins improve? And where did they lose out?
Catcher:
2007- Joe Mauer
2008- Joe Mauer
Well, there was no change here. Hopefully Mauer can bounce back from a relatively disappointing year and produce closer to his 2006 campaign, so I anticipate this position being a little better than last year.
First Base:
2007- Justin Morneau
2008- Justin Morneau
Again, the same player, but now with a new contract. Will Morneau, like Mauer, be able to return to his 2006 form? Will his new financial security have any effect on his play? Either way, I definitely think that he should improve over last year.
Second Base:
2007- Luis Castillo/Nick Punto/Alexi Casilla
2008- Brendan Harris
Harris is undoubtedly better offensively than the Twins' second basemen last year. Even with modest numbers he'll dwarf Punto's and Casilla's stats from 2007; as long as he's not the worst hitter in the league, this position will be better off. That being said, his defense is more questionable, but I think the significant offensive improvement will prove to be more important.
Third Base:
2007- Nick Punto/Luis Rodriguez/Brian Buscher
2008-Mike Lamb
A similar situation to second base, in which Lamb will in all likelihood be an improvement offensively, but potentially a liability defensively. Compared to the third basemen as a whole, Lamb will also be better than what the Twins had in 2008. It would be a little closer if we considered him versus just Buscher, rather than against Nick Putrid. Whoops, I meant Punto.
Shortstop:
2007- Jason Bartlett
2008- Adam Everett
After the blockbuster trade with the Rays, the Twins were left with a void at shortshop, which they shortly filled by signing ex-Astro Adam Everett. A defensive specialist, he is well below average offensively. That being said, his career OPS of .656 is comparable to the production the Twins got last year (Bartlett's stats were dragged down by Casilla's and Punto's time at shortstop). Hopefully, Everett hits around his career averages, which would allow us to overlook his offense for his defense.
Left Field:
2007- Jason Tyner/Jason Kubel/Rondell White
2008- Delmon Young
The biggest part of the aforementioned trade will take over left field duties for the Twins. This should no doubt be an improvement over last year. Even if Young repeats his performance from last year, he would be better than the combination that was trotted out there last year. White was abysmal again, Tyner was predictably underwhelming, and Kubel didn't play there enough to make the left field stats look good. Hopefully, however, Young will hit markedly better than last year.
Center Field:
2007- Torii Hunter
2008- Carlos Gomez/Jason Pridie/Denard Span??
This is the first position where there isn't a clear-cut frontrunner for the starting job in 2008. New acquisitions Gomez and Pridie, along with former first-round pick Denard Span, all have a chance to start on opening day. I don't know how likely Span is to start, as his minor league record doesn't indicate he's ready, but it seems like Gardenhire is high on him. No matter who it is, we can expect a significant downgrade from 2007. Even though there was basically a consensus that Hunter couldn't be re-signed, there should also be a consensus that none of these guys will come close to matching his production.
Right Field:
2007- Michael Cuddyer
2008- Michael Cuddyer
Only the third of the eight positions that will have the same starter as 2008. Cuddyer had a down year after a great 2006, and was given a new multi-year contract this off-season. Along with Mauer, Morneau, Young, and Kubel, he should combine to make a somewhat formidable middle of the lineup that will help make up for the likes of Adam Everett and probably Nick Punto, who Gardenhire will surely find a way to fit in the lineup.
Designated Hitter:
2007- Jason Tyner/Rondell White/Jason Kubel/myriad of others
2008- Jason Kubel
It's about time Jason Kubel gets a regular starting position, and there doesn't seem to be anyone in the way of him this time. Gardenhire has been known to do stranger things that start Craig Monroe at DH, though (for instance, starting Jason Tyner at DH). Kubel should be much better than what was used as an excuse for a DH last year, and I think he will make significant strides toward becoming a very good player.
Well, that wraps up my positional outlook for 2008. More season preview things to come over the next week and a half, including a divisional preview, statistical predictions (which will admittedly be essentially arbitrary guesses, but will certainly be interesting to look back on at the end of the year), and a comparison between the 2007 and 2008 pitchers.
Catcher:
2007- Joe Mauer
2008- Joe Mauer
Well, there was no change here. Hopefully Mauer can bounce back from a relatively disappointing year and produce closer to his 2006 campaign, so I anticipate this position being a little better than last year.
First Base:
2007- Justin Morneau
2008- Justin Morneau
Again, the same player, but now with a new contract. Will Morneau, like Mauer, be able to return to his 2006 form? Will his new financial security have any effect on his play? Either way, I definitely think that he should improve over last year.
Second Base:
2007- Luis Castillo/Nick Punto/Alexi Casilla
2008- Brendan Harris
Harris is undoubtedly better offensively than the Twins' second basemen last year. Even with modest numbers he'll dwarf Punto's and Casilla's stats from 2007; as long as he's not the worst hitter in the league, this position will be better off. That being said, his defense is more questionable, but I think the significant offensive improvement will prove to be more important.
Third Base:
2007- Nick Punto/Luis Rodriguez/Brian Buscher
2008-Mike Lamb
A similar situation to second base, in which Lamb will in all likelihood be an improvement offensively, but potentially a liability defensively. Compared to the third basemen as a whole, Lamb will also be better than what the Twins had in 2008. It would be a little closer if we considered him versus just Buscher, rather than against Nick Putrid. Whoops, I meant Punto.
Shortstop:
2007- Jason Bartlett
2008- Adam Everett
After the blockbuster trade with the Rays, the Twins were left with a void at shortshop, which they shortly filled by signing ex-Astro Adam Everett. A defensive specialist, he is well below average offensively. That being said, his career OPS of .656 is comparable to the production the Twins got last year (Bartlett's stats were dragged down by Casilla's and Punto's time at shortstop). Hopefully, Everett hits around his career averages, which would allow us to overlook his offense for his defense.
Left Field:
2007- Jason Tyner/Jason Kubel/Rondell White
2008- Delmon Young
The biggest part of the aforementioned trade will take over left field duties for the Twins. This should no doubt be an improvement over last year. Even if Young repeats his performance from last year, he would be better than the combination that was trotted out there last year. White was abysmal again, Tyner was predictably underwhelming, and Kubel didn't play there enough to make the left field stats look good. Hopefully, however, Young will hit markedly better than last year.
Center Field:
2007- Torii Hunter
2008- Carlos Gomez/Jason Pridie/Denard Span??
This is the first position where there isn't a clear-cut frontrunner for the starting job in 2008. New acquisitions Gomez and Pridie, along with former first-round pick Denard Span, all have a chance to start on opening day. I don't know how likely Span is to start, as his minor league record doesn't indicate he's ready, but it seems like Gardenhire is high on him. No matter who it is, we can expect a significant downgrade from 2007. Even though there was basically a consensus that Hunter couldn't be re-signed, there should also be a consensus that none of these guys will come close to matching his production.
Right Field:
2007- Michael Cuddyer
2008- Michael Cuddyer
Only the third of the eight positions that will have the same starter as 2008. Cuddyer had a down year after a great 2006, and was given a new multi-year contract this off-season. Along with Mauer, Morneau, Young, and Kubel, he should combine to make a somewhat formidable middle of the lineup that will help make up for the likes of Adam Everett and probably Nick Punto, who Gardenhire will surely find a way to fit in the lineup.
Designated Hitter:
2007- Jason Tyner/Rondell White/Jason Kubel/myriad of others
2008- Jason Kubel
It's about time Jason Kubel gets a regular starting position, and there doesn't seem to be anyone in the way of him this time. Gardenhire has been known to do stranger things that start Craig Monroe at DH, though (for instance, starting Jason Tyner at DH). Kubel should be much better than what was used as an excuse for a DH last year, and I think he will make significant strides toward becoming a very good player.
Well, that wraps up my positional outlook for 2008. More season preview things to come over the next week and a half, including a divisional preview, statistical predictions (which will admittedly be essentially arbitrary guesses, but will certainly be interesting to look back on at the end of the year), and a comparison between the 2007 and 2008 pitchers.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Delmon Young a Twin?
LaVelle E. Neal III is reporting that the Twins and Rays are close to a deal which would send RHP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett, and RHP Juan Rincon to the Rays for OF Delmon Young, INF Brendan Harris, and OF Jason Pridie. I'll have more on the deal when/if it becomes official, but at first glance I like this deal. Delmon Young is the young hitter the Twins need, a 22 year old with tons of upside. He's played a little centerfield in the majors, but I'm not sure how well it suits him as he's been mainly a corner outfielder. I liked Garza, but getting Young back for him is a great deal. I also like Bartlett, but a swap of him for Harris (who has played short but I have read is better suited at 2nd) is at least a wash. Harris slugged .434 last year in the majors and is a year younger than Bartlett. Rincon lost his role with the Twins in 2007 and they have better relievers for late-inning situations. Pridie is 23 and was taken by the Twins in the Rule V draft at one point (I'm not sure why he didn't play with the Twins), and looks a solid centerfield prospect who could step in next year. All in all, this is what we as Twins fans have been asking for: trade some of the young pitching for young hitters.
As for the Santana deal, all this does is cement the fact that the Twins need an MLB-ready pitcher in return. Yesterday, I advocated a trade of young pitchers for young hitters if the Twins got someone like Phil Hughes for Santana, and now it is (possibly) just being done in the reverse order. One thing is clear though: this team is not going to be silent like it has in the past couple offseasons, and whether that is because of the new GM or the situation the Twins are in, it is a great thing!
UPDATE 10:34 PM 11/28: Apparently, the Rays either decided they didn't want Rincon or some sort of medical concerns with his elbow prevented his being traded. The deal is now officially, but unfortunately the Twins had to give up RP Eduardo Morlan instead of Rincon. That significantly lessens my excitement for this trade. I don't necessarily feel that it was a bad deal now, but Morlan is a good prospect while Rincon is going to be a relatively expensive option out of the bullpen next year. Hopefully the Twins can still trade Rincon and get some spare parts for him, though this medical concern may render that impossible.
As for the Santana deal, all this does is cement the fact that the Twins need an MLB-ready pitcher in return. Yesterday, I advocated a trade of young pitchers for young hitters if the Twins got someone like Phil Hughes for Santana, and now it is (possibly) just being done in the reverse order. One thing is clear though: this team is not going to be silent like it has in the past couple offseasons, and whether that is because of the new GM or the situation the Twins are in, it is a great thing!
UPDATE 10:34 PM 11/28: Apparently, the Rays either decided they didn't want Rincon or some sort of medical concerns with his elbow prevented his being traded. The deal is now officially, but unfortunately the Twins had to give up RP Eduardo Morlan instead of Rincon. That significantly lessens my excitement for this trade. I don't necessarily feel that it was a bad deal now, but Morlan is a good prospect while Rincon is going to be a relatively expensive option out of the bullpen next year. Hopefully the Twins can still trade Rincon and get some spare parts for him, though this medical concern may render that impossible.
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