Four years after being installed as the General Manager, Bill Smith has been fired. Following a disastrous 99-loss season, the Pohlad family has decided to replace the man responsible for constructing the roster that finished with the worst record in the American League, despite the franchise's highest-ever payroll. From trading Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris to signing Nick Blackburn to an entirely unnecessary contract extension to turning Wilson Ramos into an overpaid and overrated reliever to giving away J.J. Hardy for two replacement-level relievers, Smith's tenure has been a series of bungled moves.
In his stead, the Twins have brought back Terry Ryan, who stepped down in September of the 2007 season, leaving Smith to deal with the Torii Hunter and Johan Santana situations. While I thought (and still think) Smith made the right move in letting Hunter walk and I don't particularly blame him for the Santana disaster, the rest of the moves were can definitely not be attributed to Ryan and were even worse. Ryan is a legend in the Minnesota organization and he can't really be any worse than Bill Smith was, but it remains to be seen just how long he will occupy this position.
Last time he stepped down he cited a lack of energy or interest in doing the general manager's duties. Either his time off caused him to regain that fire or he's doing the Twins a favor as they look for somebody else (or he just couldn't stand to see Smith's continued blunders and felt obligated to take his place). Regardless, hopefully Ryan's return means a return to the shrewd moves that made the Twins contenders for the past decade despite a relatively small budget.
Showing posts with label news. Show all posts
Showing posts with label news. Show all posts
Monday, November 7, 2011
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Episode 2: Minors, Mauer, & Morneau
First things first, Rooting for the Clothes is now available on iTunes! Subscribe there and leave your comments.
In the second episode, Twin #1 and Twin #2 discuss the news that Kyle Gibson would have Tommy John surgery, the players chosen by the Twins for the Arizona Fall League and for September call-ups, and the criticism surrounding Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau's injuries.
Download this episode (right click and save)
In the second episode, Twin #1 and Twin #2 discuss the news that Kyle Gibson would have Tommy John surgery, the players chosen by the Twins for the Arizona Fall League and for September call-ups, and the criticism surrounding Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau's injuries.
Download this episode (right click and save)
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Debuts, Gardy, and Other Twins Things
==> Let's start with the worst things first, as the Twins scored fewer than 2 runs in 6 straight games for the first time in franchise history last week. That feat has only been accomplished 14 other times since 1919, and only two times was it done in more consecutive games than what the Twins just did (the record is 9). If you limit it to streaks of home games, as the Twins' was, it's only happened 4 times previously, and just one of those instances went for 7 straight. Therefore, the 4 runs the Twins scored on Saturday against Justin Verlander kept them out of some pretty ignominious company.
==> Ron Gardenhire spoke with Phil Mackey and Patrick Reusse on KSTP radio on Thursday, and let out a few tidbits. For one, he offered Jim Hoey, Chuck James, and Deolis Guerra as players who may get call-ups after September 1. The exciting name on that list is Guerra, who, as we discussed in the first episode of our podcast, has pitched excellently since being moved to the bullpen in New Britain and will be out of options next year. Granted, he was essentially listing players on the 40-man roster, but he did leave off one or two other pitchers, indicating Guerra is at least on the radar.
"Yes, well, maybe ours," Gardenhire responded to Reusse's suggestions that Jim Thome may have offers from some teams to come to Spring Training next season. He definitely passed it off as a joke, but I am a big believer that behind almost every joke there is some truth. Whether or not the front office would be interested, I definitely think Gardy will be in favor of inviting Thome back to the club next year.
==> Lester Oliveros made his Twins debut on Tuesday against the Baltimore Orioles and pitched decently, allowing a run on two hits and a walk in two innings. His second outing, however, came against the Tigers on Friday and was fairly disastrous. He got just two outs and allowed 3 hits, 2 walks, and 3 runs, including a bases loaded RBI single to Delmon Young, the man the Twins traded to get Oliveros. Of course, it was an infield single that dribbled right down the third base line, but it still counts as a hit.
==> Francisco Liriano lasted only two innings in his start against Baltimore before he was removed due to shoulder soreness. He was diagnosed with a posterior strain in his left shoulder, which very well could mean his season is over. Scott Diamond was called up to replace him on the Major League roster, and started immediately on Friday. He pitched to contact, as his numbers would suggest, giving up 11 hits and 5 runs in 6.1 innings. His line could have been better, but he left with the bases loaded and Glen Perkins allowed all three inherited runners to score.
==> On Saturday night, Stephen Strasburg started against the Rochester Red Wings as part of his rehab assignment. He thoroughly dominated the Red Wings hitters, pitching five perfect innings with 7 strikeouts. He came out for the sixth frame, however, and gave up singles to Aaron Bates and Steve Holm, who's now hitting .179 in Triple-A, before he reached his pitch limit. Bates wound up scoring, meaning Strasburg was charged with one run on his ledger. Still, it was clear that one player belongs in the Majors and one team was well under .500 in Triple-A.
==> Matt Tolbert is back at Rochester in order to make room on the roster for Rene Rivera while Joe Mauer is limited by a neck injury. It's really good to see the Twins keep Trevor Plouffe on the roster and in a starting role as he tries to establish himself as an option for 2012, rather than allowing Tolbert to continue putting up his usual pathetic offensive numbers. Everyone knows what Tolbert offers, and it's not exciting.
==> Ron Gardenhire spoke with Phil Mackey and Patrick Reusse on KSTP radio on Thursday, and let out a few tidbits. For one, he offered Jim Hoey, Chuck James, and Deolis Guerra as players who may get call-ups after September 1. The exciting name on that list is Guerra, who, as we discussed in the first episode of our podcast, has pitched excellently since being moved to the bullpen in New Britain and will be out of options next year. Granted, he was essentially listing players on the 40-man roster, but he did leave off one or two other pitchers, indicating Guerra is at least on the radar.
"Yes, well, maybe ours," Gardenhire responded to Reusse's suggestions that Jim Thome may have offers from some teams to come to Spring Training next season. He definitely passed it off as a joke, but I am a big believer that behind almost every joke there is some truth. Whether or not the front office would be interested, I definitely think Gardy will be in favor of inviting Thome back to the club next year.
==> Lester Oliveros made his Twins debut on Tuesday against the Baltimore Orioles and pitched decently, allowing a run on two hits and a walk in two innings. His second outing, however, came against the Tigers on Friday and was fairly disastrous. He got just two outs and allowed 3 hits, 2 walks, and 3 runs, including a bases loaded RBI single to Delmon Young, the man the Twins traded to get Oliveros. Of course, it was an infield single that dribbled right down the third base line, but it still counts as a hit.
==> Francisco Liriano lasted only two innings in his start against Baltimore before he was removed due to shoulder soreness. He was diagnosed with a posterior strain in his left shoulder, which very well could mean his season is over. Scott Diamond was called up to replace him on the Major League roster, and started immediately on Friday. He pitched to contact, as his numbers would suggest, giving up 11 hits and 5 runs in 6.1 innings. His line could have been better, but he left with the bases loaded and Glen Perkins allowed all three inherited runners to score.
==> On Saturday night, Stephen Strasburg started against the Rochester Red Wings as part of his rehab assignment. He thoroughly dominated the Red Wings hitters, pitching five perfect innings with 7 strikeouts. He came out for the sixth frame, however, and gave up singles to Aaron Bates and Steve Holm, who's now hitting .179 in Triple-A, before he reached his pitch limit. Bates wound up scoring, meaning Strasburg was charged with one run on his ledger. Still, it was clear that one player belongs in the Majors and one team was well under .500 in Triple-A.
==> Matt Tolbert is back at Rochester in order to make room on the roster for Rene Rivera while Joe Mauer is limited by a neck injury. It's really good to see the Twins keep Trevor Plouffe on the roster and in a starting role as he tries to establish himself as an option for 2012, rather than allowing Tolbert to continue putting up his usual pathetic offensive numbers. Everyone knows what Tolbert offers, and it's not exciting.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Farewell Jim Thome
The Minnesota Twins bid a fond farewell to Jim Thome last night as they traded him to the Indians for a player to be named later. In moving to Cleveland, Thome returns to his original club and a place he called home for 12 seasons, until he was 32 years old. That last season in Cleveland he hit a career-high 52 homers, led the league in walks, slugging percent, and OPS, and played 148 games at first base. The circumstances under which he comes back are quite different, as he's now an aging 40-year old who often struggles to play DH on consecutive days. But one trait remains the same, even if it's not as prolific as it was then: the man can hit the ball a long way.
And that's why Twins fans, myself included, are sorry to see him go. It's even more disappointing because a big motivating factor in moving Thome was to give him a chance, albeit small in this case, to obtain a World Series ring, only casting more light on the unsuccessful season Minnesota has had. Cleveland, while far ahead of the Twins, is still 6 1/2 games back of Detroit in the Central, so Thome will likely once more fail to get a ring. Many people are assuming that this will be the end for Thome since he reached the 600 home run plateau, but perhaps he'll give it one more shot in 2012.
But what's certain is that Thome's time with the Twins has come to an end. In 178 games with Minnesota, Thome batted 578 times and slugged 37 homers, hitting one out every 12.92 at bats. His 2010 season marked the best AB/HR ratio for any Twins player ever with at least 200 plate appearances, as he went deep once every 11 at bats. He rejuvenated his power stroke--not that it was ever meager--upon joining the Twins and immediately became a fan favorite. His signature moment from the 2010 season, a walk-off homer against his former team and the Twins' current rival, the Chicago White Sox, was matched this year when he went deep twice in one game to gain inductance into the 600 home run club.
All in all, the nearly two seasons Jim Thome spent in Minneapolis were fantastic ones, and you'd be hard-pressed to find a Twins fan anywhere who would disagree. Thome's presence in the lineup will be missed, but we wish him the best of luck in Cleveland!
NG5CYCHSQ9W8
Monday, August 15, 2011
600!
Congratulations to Jim Thome for hitting his 600th career home run off of Daniel Schlereth in the 7th inning of last night's game in Detroit. It was his second of the night, as he had already homered the inning before off of Rick Porcello. He is the eighth player ever to hit 600 home runs, joining Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., and Sammy Sosa.
Thome's milestone home run was a three-run blast that stretched the Twins' lead to 9-5. They eventually won the game 9-6 on the back of Thome's 5 RBIs.
Thome's milestone home run was a three-run blast that stretched the Twins' lead to 9-5. They eventually won the game 9-6 on the back of Thome's 5 RBIs.
The Delmon Young Experiment Ends
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| Twins fans will never have to watch Delmon Young do this to their team ever again |
The Twins have just sent Delmon Young to a divisional rival, Detroit, in return for an uninspiring package. The Tigers currently have Brennan Boesch, Austin Jackson, and Magglio Ordonez in the outfield, and the word is that Ordonez is the one most likely to lose playing time. Ordonez has been quite underwhelming this season, as he currently holds a triple slash of .223/.280/.295, but Young hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire either.
In return, the Twins receive minor league left-hander Cole Nelson and a player to be named later. Nelson stands 6-7 and weighs 240 pounds, so he's a highly desirable commodity: a projectable left-handed pitcher. On the other hand, he just hasn't pitched all that well to this point. I couldn't find him listed on any prospect lists coming into the year, with the most expansive ones I looked at being Bless You Boys' ranking of the top 30 Tiger farmhands and John Sickels' top 20 (plus others under consideration).
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| Cole Nelson |
It's a pretty disappointing return for Delmon Young. Given that he would command a salary at least in the $6 million range next year, the Twins would be understandably hesitant about tendering him a contract. Operating under that assumption, it makes sense that Minnesota would want to deal him now, rather than losing him for nothing in the offseason. However, one would have hoped that the Twins could have gotten more than a marginal prospect and a player to be named later, who's likely even less of a prospect, for a player with Young's pedigree and talent who's still only 25 years old.
Of course Young has actually played horribly, save a power-infused 2010 season. Other than that he's put together three awful seasons with the Twins, butchering plays in left field, rarely getting on base, and displaying little of the power he was supposed to have. As it stands the Twins gave up a #2 pitcher, a starting shortstop, and a minor league pitcher for two other non-contributors and the privilege to completely overpay Young for a couple seasons. And now they've traded Young for two marginal prospects at best. I honestly can't say what I thought about the original trade, since I didn't write anything about it and I don't remember, but in hindsight it's obvious that it did not work out in the Twins' favor.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Twins bring back Thome
A couple long months into the off-season, the Twins have finally come to terms with Jim Thome, as he'll return to Minneapolis on a one-year contract worth $3 million. Throughout the off-season various teams had reportedly been interested in Thome (most recently the Rangers) but in the end he decided to spend another year with Minnesota, where, by all accounts, he had a very enjoyable 2010 season.
The price of $3 million, plus some plate appearance bonuses, is a very good one for Minnesota. After signing a make-good deal with the Twins last year for just $1.5 million, Thome made good and hit .283/.412/.627 for a .437 wOBA. Those gaudy numbers meant he produced 3.6 WAR and was worth $14.6 million (enough to rank in the top 25 among position players in the AL) despite not playing a single inning in the field and accumulating only 340 plate appearances. Unfortunately, his prolific performance in the batter's box also had rumors circulating that he was looking for either a two-year deal or $8 million for 2011.
The same facts that made his production all the more impressive, however, were the same ones that kept him from actually getting those deals. While his .437 wOBA placed him fourth in the majors among batters with more than 50 plate appearances (behind the two MVPs and Justin Morneau), he is a 40-year old who hasn't played in the field at all since 2007 (and only 8 innings that year) and can't even be counted on to play DH every day because of his problematic back.
And no one can reasonably expect him to repeat his 2010 season. Even for Thome, a future hall-of-famer who ranks 8th all-time in home runs, 2010 was one of his two or three best seasons, based purely on rate hitting stats. Bill James, for instance, projects him for a much less inspiring line of .245/.384/.498 in 2011. In all likelihood, that will be much closer to his performance than what he did last year. That is why it was important to not overpay for Thome, and instead ink him to a very reasonable one-year, $3 million contract.
And it certainly will be fun to watch him chase down 600 home runs, as he stands only 11 short at the moment.
The price of $3 million, plus some plate appearance bonuses, is a very good one for Minnesota. After signing a make-good deal with the Twins last year for just $1.5 million, Thome made good and hit .283/.412/.627 for a .437 wOBA. Those gaudy numbers meant he produced 3.6 WAR and was worth $14.6 million (enough to rank in the top 25 among position players in the AL) despite not playing a single inning in the field and accumulating only 340 plate appearances. Unfortunately, his prolific performance in the batter's box also had rumors circulating that he was looking for either a two-year deal or $8 million for 2011.
The same facts that made his production all the more impressive, however, were the same ones that kept him from actually getting those deals. While his .437 wOBA placed him fourth in the majors among batters with more than 50 plate appearances (behind the two MVPs and Justin Morneau), he is a 40-year old who hasn't played in the field at all since 2007 (and only 8 innings that year) and can't even be counted on to play DH every day because of his problematic back.
And no one can reasonably expect him to repeat his 2010 season. Even for Thome, a future hall-of-famer who ranks 8th all-time in home runs, 2010 was one of his two or three best seasons, based purely on rate hitting stats. Bill James, for instance, projects him for a much less inspiring line of .245/.384/.498 in 2011. In all likelihood, that will be much closer to his performance than what he did last year. That is why it was important to not overpay for Thome, and instead ink him to a very reasonable one-year, $3 million contract.
And it certainly will be fun to watch him chase down 600 home runs, as he stands only 11 short at the moment.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Hardy and Harris Sent to Orioles
The Twins recently finalized a deal in which they will send J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris, and $500,000, to the Orioles for two relief pitching prospects, right-handers Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey. I don't know what the Twins don't like about Hardy, and why they were so against retaining him for another year, but I'm sorely disappointed by the return on this trade.
Despite the negative sentiment coming from the front office regarding Hardy, he was an above average shortstop during his one season with the Twins. While his offensive stats didn't impress anybody, they were only barely below average for his position (wRC+ of 96). And, of course, his defense was tremendous, as it always is. He ranked fifth in the majors among shortstops in UZR (8.1), and fared even better when measured as a rate stat, as he placed second in UZR/150 (12.8) among shortstops with at least 600 innings. This is neither a new insight nor random variation in an unreliable statistic; Hardy's lowest UZR/150 rating in a season is a remarkable +6.6, and calculated for his over 5,000 career innings comes in at +11.
[Edit 12/10/2010 2:30 PM: With FanGraphs just today installing the option for sorting league leaders over multiple years, I figured I'd throw out some more statistics on Hardy's fielding. Since he entered the league in 2005, he ranks first among qualified shortstops in both UZR and UZR/150 by a wide margin. Seeing as how I'm not sure how 'qualified' is determined over multiple years, I changed the minimum innings to 1000 over that time span, which came up with 64 different players. Hardy comes in third in UZR, after Adam Everett and Omar Vizquel, and ranked sixth in UZR/150, behind those two, Mike Aviles, Brendan Ryan, and the top-rated player according to that statistic, none other than Nick Punto.]
What did the Twins pick up in return for Hardy? Jacobson is now a 24-year old who's spent the last three seasons pitching at the two levels of Single-A. While he has posted some solid strikeout numbers (8.3 K/9) and limited his walks (2.78 BB/9), his numbers aren't eye-popping and he has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in his professional career. Additionally, as best as I could tell, he doesn't appear anywhere in the top 20 for Orioles prospects; this site doesn't even mention him as an 'other' when listing their choices, and this site pegs him as the fourth-best right-handed relief pitching prospect in the Orioles' minor league system. Fourth-best initially sounds good, but not with that many qualifiers, and those ones specifically, after it.
Mentions of Hoey as a true prospect are even harder to find, and that's with good reason. Hoey is a 27-year old relief pitcher who's been bouncing between AA and AAA since 2006, with brief--and horrific--major league stints in 2006 and 2007. While his minor league strikeout numbers are gaudy throughout his minor league stops (10.3 K/9 total, so are his walk totals (4.4 BB/9). He's a prototypical bullpen arm, a hard-throwing right-hander, but the Twins already have someone who's similar in that respect but has performed better (Anthony Slama), and they've been hesitant to give him much of an opportunity, so I'm not sure why they targeted Hoey.
So, while Hoey and Jacobson don't bring much value as prospects, they also don't seem to provide much in the way of immediate help. That's what vexes me about this deal: the Twins are trading away Hardy, an important piece for their potential 2011 roster, and not really improving the bullpen much, if at all. The only other explanation would be a salary dump, as Hardy is expected to make between $6 and $7 million, and the two pitchers they received will be receiving hundreds of thousands of dollars at worst. The only part of the deal I do understand is getting rid of $1.25 million of the $1.75 million the Twins stupidly owe to Brendan Harris in 2011.
Hardy's reputation as a defensive wizard is well-deserved, and his hitting is good enough to make him quite a valuable player. And let us not forget the offensive potential Hardy displayed with the Brewerse in 2007 and especially 2008, when he put up a .355 wOBA. Sure, that was two seasons ago, and his recent performance doesn't suggest he can replicate that, but even in his current incarnation he's worth more than the Twins valued him. I was resolved to the fact that the Twins did not want Hardy, but I was hoping they would get a real prospect or preferably some decent Major League ready talent. Instead they got neither and opened up some big question marks in their middle infield.
Despite the negative sentiment coming from the front office regarding Hardy, he was an above average shortstop during his one season with the Twins. While his offensive stats didn't impress anybody, they were only barely below average for his position (wRC+ of 96). And, of course, his defense was tremendous, as it always is. He ranked fifth in the majors among shortstops in UZR (8.1), and fared even better when measured as a rate stat, as he placed second in UZR/150 (12.8) among shortstops with at least 600 innings. This is neither a new insight nor random variation in an unreliable statistic; Hardy's lowest UZR/150 rating in a season is a remarkable +6.6, and calculated for his over 5,000 career innings comes in at +11.
[Edit 12/10/2010 2:30 PM: With FanGraphs just today installing the option for sorting league leaders over multiple years, I figured I'd throw out some more statistics on Hardy's fielding. Since he entered the league in 2005, he ranks first among qualified shortstops in both UZR and UZR/150 by a wide margin. Seeing as how I'm not sure how 'qualified' is determined over multiple years, I changed the minimum innings to 1000 over that time span, which came up with 64 different players. Hardy comes in third in UZR, after Adam Everett and Omar Vizquel, and ranked sixth in UZR/150, behind those two, Mike Aviles, Brendan Ryan, and the top-rated player according to that statistic, none other than Nick Punto.]
What did the Twins pick up in return for Hardy? Jacobson is now a 24-year old who's spent the last three seasons pitching at the two levels of Single-A. While he has posted some solid strikeout numbers (8.3 K/9) and limited his walks (2.78 BB/9), his numbers aren't eye-popping and he has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in his professional career. Additionally, as best as I could tell, he doesn't appear anywhere in the top 20 for Orioles prospects; this site doesn't even mention him as an 'other' when listing their choices, and this site pegs him as the fourth-best right-handed relief pitching prospect in the Orioles' minor league system. Fourth-best initially sounds good, but not with that many qualifiers, and those ones specifically, after it.
Mentions of Hoey as a true prospect are even harder to find, and that's with good reason. Hoey is a 27-year old relief pitcher who's been bouncing between AA and AAA since 2006, with brief--and horrific--major league stints in 2006 and 2007. While his minor league strikeout numbers are gaudy throughout his minor league stops (10.3 K/9 total, so are his walk totals (4.4 BB/9). He's a prototypical bullpen arm, a hard-throwing right-hander, but the Twins already have someone who's similar in that respect but has performed better (Anthony Slama), and they've been hesitant to give him much of an opportunity, so I'm not sure why they targeted Hoey.
So, while Hoey and Jacobson don't bring much value as prospects, they also don't seem to provide much in the way of immediate help. That's what vexes me about this deal: the Twins are trading away Hardy, an important piece for their potential 2011 roster, and not really improving the bullpen much, if at all. The only other explanation would be a salary dump, as Hardy is expected to make between $6 and $7 million, and the two pitchers they received will be receiving hundreds of thousands of dollars at worst. The only part of the deal I do understand is getting rid of $1.25 million of the $1.75 million the Twins stupidly owe to Brendan Harris in 2011.
Hardy's reputation as a defensive wizard is well-deserved, and his hitting is good enough to make him quite a valuable player. And let us not forget the offensive potential Hardy displayed with the Brewerse in 2007 and especially 2008, when he put up a .355 wOBA. Sure, that was two seasons ago, and his recent performance doesn't suggest he can replicate that, but even in his current incarnation he's worth more than the Twins valued him. I was resolved to the fact that the Twins did not want Hardy, but I was hoping they would get a real prospect or preferably some decent Major League ready talent. Instead they got neither and opened up some big question marks in their middle infield.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Gardenhire Named AL Manager of the Year
The title says it all. After finishing in second place in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2009, Ron Gardenhire finally thrust off the bridesmaid label and came home with the award for American League Manager of the Year. Despite losing his closer, Joe Nathan, before the season started, and the best hitter in the league over the first three months, Justin Morneau, at the All-Star break, Gardenhire led the Twins to a 94-win season and their sixth division title since 2002.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Kenny Williams Matches Bill Smith
Yesterday it was the Twins trading away a prospect for an underwhelming return, but today it was the White Sox who parted ways with a valuable commodity in what appears to be a pretty questionable deal.
Chicago sent starting pitcher Daniel Hudson to Arizona for Edwin Jackson. The Diamondbacks also received a second prospect, David Holmberg, but I know nothing about him and Hudson is the clear deal-maker anyways. For those reasons, I’m just going to forget about Holmberg.
To me, this deal looks remarkably similar to the one the Twins pulled off to get Matt Capps. Like the Twins, the White Sox traded a consensus top-3 prospect in their organization (here’s the proof) and a player ranked highly by Baseball America (#66 in the Spring rankings). Like the Twins, the White Sox gave up a second player (Holmberg) as a throw-in. Like the Twins, the White Sox will have control of their new player for next year, too. And, like the Twins’ trade, this deal makes no sense.
They traded Hudson, their #1 pitching prospect, for a decent pitcher in Edwin Jackson. Unfortunately, Hudson appears to already be just as good a pitcher, with the potential to be a much better pitcher. ZIPs projects Hudson to have a 4.06 FIP for the rest of 2010, compared to its projection of 4.16 for Jackson. In addition, Jackson still has a few million dollars on the docket for this year, plus $8.35 million committed to him for next year. Hudson, meanwhile, would make a few hundred thousand for the next couple of years, before he could even approach would Jackson is making.
I just don’t understand it at all. It seems like the White Sox mortgaged the future, but made no improvement for the present. They’ve replaced Hudson with Jackson in the rotation, but Hudson is probably close to, or as good as, Jackson is right now. Is this just a total overreaction to Hudson’s 3 less-than-stellar big league starts thus far in 2010? That’s the only explanation I can see.
In a response to a comment I left on FanGraphs, one White Sox fan offered this reasoning:
"Believe me, most of us White Sox fans don’t understand it either unless it’s because Washington wants Jackson instead of Hudson in a trade for Dunn. Either that, or “The Don” Cooper sees some sort of purportedly easily fixable flaw that will quickly turn him around. None of us discount his ability to change the fortunes of talented pitchers (Thornton, Danks, Floyd, etc) but he’s also got some failures (Mike MacDougal being an obvious one) where he never was able to do much of anything."
All in all, for the second consecutive day, an AL Central General Manager has managed to mystify me with a trade. The fact that it was a rival of Minnesota significantly lessens the pain of giving away Wilson Ramos.
Chicago sent starting pitcher Daniel Hudson to Arizona for Edwin Jackson. The Diamondbacks also received a second prospect, David Holmberg, but I know nothing about him and Hudson is the clear deal-maker anyways. For those reasons, I’m just going to forget about Holmberg.
To me, this deal looks remarkably similar to the one the Twins pulled off to get Matt Capps. Like the Twins, the White Sox traded a consensus top-3 prospect in their organization (here’s the proof) and a player ranked highly by Baseball America (#66 in the Spring rankings). Like the Twins, the White Sox gave up a second player (Holmberg) as a throw-in. Like the Twins, the White Sox will have control of their new player for next year, too. And, like the Twins’ trade, this deal makes no sense.
They traded Hudson, their #1 pitching prospect, for a decent pitcher in Edwin Jackson. Unfortunately, Hudson appears to already be just as good a pitcher, with the potential to be a much better pitcher. ZIPs projects Hudson to have a 4.06 FIP for the rest of 2010, compared to its projection of 4.16 for Jackson. In addition, Jackson still has a few million dollars on the docket for this year, plus $8.35 million committed to him for next year. Hudson, meanwhile, would make a few hundred thousand for the next couple of years, before he could even approach would Jackson is making.
I just don’t understand it at all. It seems like the White Sox mortgaged the future, but made no improvement for the present. They’ve replaced Hudson with Jackson in the rotation, but Hudson is probably close to, or as good as, Jackson is right now. Is this just a total overreaction to Hudson’s 3 less-than-stellar big league starts thus far in 2010? That’s the only explanation I can see.
In a response to a comment I left on FanGraphs, one White Sox fan offered this reasoning:
"Believe me, most of us White Sox fans don’t understand it either unless it’s because Washington wants Jackson instead of Hudson in a trade for Dunn. Either that, or “The Don” Cooper sees some sort of purportedly easily fixable flaw that will quickly turn him around. None of us discount his ability to change the fortunes of talented pitchers (Thornton, Danks, Floyd, etc) but he’s also got some failures (Mike MacDougal being an obvious one) where he never was able to do much of anything."
All in all, for the second consecutive day, an AL Central General Manager has managed to mystify me with a trade. The fact that it was a rival of Minnesota significantly lessens the pain of giving away Wilson Ramos.
Why?
The Twins have won six games in a row. They've been an offensive juggernaut over that span, and they've gotten some pretty darn good pitching too. Today's post was supposed to be about how incredible Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Danny Valencia have been of late. About how Mauer is 27-for-51 with 17 RBIs in 12 games against Kansas City this year, giving him a triple slash line of .529/.550/.784. About how Young has been one of the best hitters in the Majors in July, putting up a line of .439/.462/.745. About how he's been ever more ridiculous in his last six games, going 15-for-31 with 3 homers and a 1.513 OPS. About how, for four games, Valencia lit the world on fire, collecting 14 hits in 20 at bats to go with a 4 doubles, a grand slam, and 8 RBIs.
But then Bill Smith had to go and ruin all that good work of the Minnesota players. Bill Smith had to go and trade Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps. Wilson Ramos, the same guy who was a consensus top-5 prospect in the Twins' organization and ranked the #58 overall prospect by Baseball America at the beginning of the season. And if that wasn't enough, the Twins also sent minor league pitcher Joe Testa to Washington. I guess to be thorough I should mention the Twins are getting cash considerations, but does that really matter?
I just don't understand this at all. Capps is a solid reliever, but the Twins already have a bunch of solid relievers. It's pretty clear this is just another over-valuation of the save statistic. Bill Smith and the Twins organization saw a guy who had struggled in the month of July (Jon Rauch); on the other side, they saw a guy who's picked up 26 saves in 30 chances for Washington. Of course they didn't see that Rauch's FIP is 3.43, a tad better than Capps' 3.51. How can they be so oblivious to this?
Congratulations to Mike Rizzo, the Nationals' General Manager. He convinced the Twins to trade a top prospect for just a solid reliever, and even managed to steal a second player. While Testa is no world-beater, he was ranked #40 among Twins prospects by Aaron Gleeman and #49 by Seth Stohs this past off-season, so he's not a total nobody. Ramos may not have had any future with the Twins, since they've got Mauer, but that doesn't mean you just give him away.
They couldn't have gotten anything better for Ramos? I really find that hard to believe. I want to say that Rizzo extracted more from the Twins than the Diamondbacks managed to get for Dan Haren! This deal just absolutely confounds me. When Twin #2 told me, I was sure he was joking. Then I went through denial as I begged him to tell me it wasn't true. And now I'm in the stage of depression, but hopefully I'll move onto acceptance sometime soon. As Twin #2 pointed out to me, we better see Capps closing out the World Series for the Twins this October, or this was just a complete waste of talent. And even then...
But then Bill Smith had to go and ruin all that good work of the Minnesota players. Bill Smith had to go and trade Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps. Wilson Ramos, the same guy who was a consensus top-5 prospect in the Twins' organization and ranked the #58 overall prospect by Baseball America at the beginning of the season. And if that wasn't enough, the Twins also sent minor league pitcher Joe Testa to Washington. I guess to be thorough I should mention the Twins are getting cash considerations, but does that really matter?
I just don't understand this at all. Capps is a solid reliever, but the Twins already have a bunch of solid relievers. It's pretty clear this is just another over-valuation of the save statistic. Bill Smith and the Twins organization saw a guy who had struggled in the month of July (Jon Rauch); on the other side, they saw a guy who's picked up 26 saves in 30 chances for Washington. Of course they didn't see that Rauch's FIP is 3.43, a tad better than Capps' 3.51. How can they be so oblivious to this?
Congratulations to Mike Rizzo, the Nationals' General Manager. He convinced the Twins to trade a top prospect for just a solid reliever, and even managed to steal a second player. While Testa is no world-beater, he was ranked #40 among Twins prospects by Aaron Gleeman and #49 by Seth Stohs this past off-season, so he's not a total nobody. Ramos may not have had any future with the Twins, since they've got Mauer, but that doesn't mean you just give him away.
They couldn't have gotten anything better for Ramos? I really find that hard to believe. I want to say that Rizzo extracted more from the Twins than the Diamondbacks managed to get for Dan Haren! This deal just absolutely confounds me. When Twin #2 told me, I was sure he was joking. Then I went through denial as I begged him to tell me it wasn't true. And now I'm in the stage of depression, but hopefully I'll move onto acceptance sometime soon. As Twin #2 pointed out to me, we better see Capps closing out the World Series for the Twins this October, or this was just a complete waste of talent. And even then...
Monday, March 22, 2010
Priceless
Joe Mauer will be with the Twins through 2018! Late Sunday night, news broke that Mauer and Twins had agreed to an 8-year, $184 million contract. While that means Mauer will receive $23 million in salary each year until his 35 years old, I have no qualms whatsoever with the deal. I know he's a catcher, and it's unlikely he will maintain his level of performance and stick at catcher for that long; but it all doesn't matter right now. Being able to gloat and remind any Yankees fans, Red Sox fans, or other Joe Mauer suitors that they'll never have him is worth more than anything.
Sure, I am aware of the possibility that this deal could cripple the Twins and leave them struggling to compete in a few years, but even if it does I won't regret it. The thought of losing the best player in the American League, the most popular player on the team, and my favorite baseball player of all-time to somebody else was just unbearable. If he does suffer through injuries or his performance declines for any reason, I would be upset not because Minnesota is overpaying him, but because my favorite player is not playing as well as he once was.
Despite the positive reports about the contract negotiations, I was sweating bullets the entire time, waiting to hear the good news that Joe Mauer would remain a Twin past 2010. Now I can wear my Mauer shirts with pride, stare appreciatively at my Mauer banner, and wait longingly for the season to see his sweet swing in action, rather than seeing them all as taunts of what the Twins used to have.
My trepidation gone, I now would like nothing more than to see the Twins take the field for the first time this decade.
Sure, I am aware of the possibility that this deal could cripple the Twins and leave them struggling to compete in a few years, but even if it does I won't regret it. The thought of losing the best player in the American League, the most popular player on the team, and my favorite baseball player of all-time to somebody else was just unbearable. If he does suffer through injuries or his performance declines for any reason, I would be upset not because Minnesota is overpaying him, but because my favorite player is not playing as well as he once was.
Despite the positive reports about the contract negotiations, I was sweating bullets the entire time, waiting to hear the good news that Joe Mauer would remain a Twin past 2010. Now I can wear my Mauer shirts with pride, stare appreciatively at my Mauer banner, and wait longingly for the season to see his sweet swing in action, rather than seeing them all as taunts of what the Twins used to have.
My trepidation gone, I now would like nothing more than to see the Twins take the field for the first time this decade.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Twins get Orlando Hudson!
It's official! For $5 million, Orlando Hudson has agreed to be a Minnesota Twin for their inaugural season at Target Field.
Let's get right to the point here: this is VERY exciting. The Twins suddenly (or perhaps not all that suddenly) look like legitimate contenders. I look at this as essentially the Twins' version of what the Yankees did last offseason. While the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett for upwards of $420 million dollars, the Twins turned in a much smaller market version by signing Jim Thome and now Hudson to $7.5 million total and trading for J.J. Hardy.
And they've filled the gaping holes that have perennially plagued their lineups in seasons past. Hudson will anchor second base, where the Twins had the worst OPS of any position on any team in 2009 (.566). Hardy, looking to rebound from a poor 2009 season, will man shortstop, where fans were either forced to watch Orlando Cabrera's vanishing defense or Nick Punto's unsightly plate appearances in 2009. Thome will provide some pop to the bench, when it otherwise would have been the thoroughly frightening Matt Tolbert and Brendan Harris/Alexi Casilla/Punto combination.
Just look at the OPS numbers of the Twins' probable lineup:
(2009, 2010 Bill James projection vs. 2009 positional average)
Catcher (Joe Mauer): 1.031, .953 -- .713
1B (Justin Morneau): .878, .873 -- .843
2B (Orlando Hudson): .774, .762 -- .749
3B (Punto/Harris): .621, .638/.672, .730 -- .753
SS (J.J. Hardy): .659, .742 -- .718
LF (Delmon Young): .733, .769 -- .777
CF (Denard Span): .807, .780 -- .745
RF (Michael Cuddyer): .862, .825 -- .787
DH (Jason Kubel): .907, .852 -- .779
That looks like it's going to be fun to watch.
Let's get right to the point here: this is VERY exciting. The Twins suddenly (or perhaps not all that suddenly) look like legitimate contenders. I look at this as essentially the Twins' version of what the Yankees did last offseason. While the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett for upwards of $420 million dollars, the Twins turned in a much smaller market version by signing Jim Thome and now Hudson to $7.5 million total and trading for J.J. Hardy.
And they've filled the gaping holes that have perennially plagued their lineups in seasons past. Hudson will anchor second base, where the Twins had the worst OPS of any position on any team in 2009 (.566). Hardy, looking to rebound from a poor 2009 season, will man shortstop, where fans were either forced to watch Orlando Cabrera's vanishing defense or Nick Punto's unsightly plate appearances in 2009. Thome will provide some pop to the bench, when it otherwise would have been the thoroughly frightening Matt Tolbert and Brendan Harris/Alexi Casilla/Punto combination.
Just look at the OPS numbers of the Twins' probable lineup:
(2009, 2010 Bill James projection vs. 2009 positional average)
Catcher (Joe Mauer): 1.031, .953 -- .713
1B (Justin Morneau): .878, .873 -- .843
2B (Orlando Hudson): .774, .762 -- .749
3B (Punto/Harris): .621, .638/.672, .730 -- .753
SS (J.J. Hardy): .659, .742 -- .718
LF (Delmon Young): .733, .769 -- .777
CF (Denard Span): .807, .780 -- .745
RF (Michael Cuddyer): .862, .825 -- .787
DH (Jason Kubel): .907, .852 -- .779
That looks like it's going to be fun to watch.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Twins Thoughts
I haven't posted anything in a while, and that will probably continue to be true until the season starts, but I figured I'd weigh in on a few things.
--Signing Jim Thome isn't a bad move, especially for the low cost of $1.5 million plus incentives, but it just doesn't sit well with me. Trading Carlos Gomez was supposed to eliminate the glut of outfielders the Twins had, and allow everyone consistent playing time; now, however, they're right back where they started, with 5 players for four spots (outfield plus DH). I know many people are glad that this may mean less playing time for Delmon Young, but I'm not. He's been horrible for the last two seasons, there's no doubt about that, but I was hoping this would finally be the season where he could play full-time and the Twins would be able to decide whether or not he could live up to any of his potential.
--Signing Clay Condrey makes even less sense to me. With a bullpen already packed with solid relievers, I don't see why you'd pay extra money for a guy who could very well be replaced by one of the options in Rochester. The Twins already have Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, possibly Pat Neshek, and two of Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing, and Glen Perkins. That's eight relievers in addition Condrey, meaning two of those guys won't be starting the season in Minnesota.
--Orlando Cabrera signed with the Reds, thankfully officially ending any possibility that he'll be back in Minnesota.
--Signing Jim Thome isn't a bad move, especially for the low cost of $1.5 million plus incentives, but it just doesn't sit well with me. Trading Carlos Gomez was supposed to eliminate the glut of outfielders the Twins had, and allow everyone consistent playing time; now, however, they're right back where they started, with 5 players for four spots (outfield plus DH). I know many people are glad that this may mean less playing time for Delmon Young, but I'm not. He's been horrible for the last two seasons, there's no doubt about that, but I was hoping this would finally be the season where he could play full-time and the Twins would be able to decide whether or not he could live up to any of his potential.
--Signing Clay Condrey makes even less sense to me. With a bullpen already packed with solid relievers, I don't see why you'd pay extra money for a guy who could very well be replaced by one of the options in Rochester. The Twins already have Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, possibly Pat Neshek, and two of Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing, and Glen Perkins. That's eight relievers in addition Condrey, meaning two of those guys won't be starting the season in Minnesota.
--Orlando Cabrera signed with the Reds, thankfully officially ending any possibility that he'll be back in Minnesota.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Mauer wins MVP!
It's official--Joe Mauer is the 2009 American League MVP! And he did in nearly unanimous style, as he received 27 of the 28 first place votes, with Miguel Cabrera taking the final one.
Congratulations to Joe!
Congratulations to Joe!
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Changes
The big news out of Minnesota is, of course, that Carlos Gomez was traded for J.J. Hardy. Gomez was a personal favorite of mine, and I even sponsored him on Baseball-Reference, so I'm sad to see him go on that level. On the level of what's best for the Twins as a baseball team, I'm very happy to see them acquire J.J. Hardy. I'm sure you've already read extensively about what he's a good pickup, so I won't go into detail. While this does mean that Delmon Young will be playing full-time in the outfield, I think it's still a positive because of the great defense that Hardy brings to the shortstop position and the offensive potential he has. For a position that has been a huge headache over the past few years, that's a very nice combination.
The other news, which is far less surprising, is that the Twins exercised Michael Cuddyer's extension for 2010 and 2011. He'll make $19 million over the two seasons and confirms the Twins' outfield in their inaugural season in Target Field will, in all likelihood, be Cuddyer-Denard Span-Young.
The other news, which is far less surprising, is that the Twins exercised Michael Cuddyer's extension for 2010 and 2011. He'll make $19 million over the two seasons and confirms the Twins' outfield in their inaugural season in Target Field will, in all likelihood, be Cuddyer-Denard Span-Young.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Moving Day
It was for both me and the Twins. I was busy moving out of my summer room and bringing everything across campus to my new room for the fall. But the Twins had even more on their plate, as they made a series of moves that involved acquiring two new players, completing a trade, sending down two players, calling up one, and DLing another.
I'll start with the bad news, and that's that the Twins lost Yohan Pino to the Indians. Pino turned out to be the player-to-be-named in the deal for Carl Pavano. This certainly makes the deal less appealing than it was a month ago, when I figured they wouldn't be relinquishing someone who's pitching pretty well in AAA right now. In fact, I may have been clamoring for Pino to move into the fifth spot in the rotation if he were still here.
Pino had been a solid prospect until this year, but he really started to impress me in both AA and AAA this year. He struck out over a batter per inning in AA and had four strikeouts for ever walk, culminating in an 3.19 ERA and 2.99 FIP. In AAA, his strikeouts dropped to 7.76 K/9, but he lowered his walks to keep his K:BB rate at an even 4.0. His ERA and FIP were still still strong too, at 2.82 and 3.45 respectively.
There were some red flags, though, as he got a very low percentage of groundballs, and yet had a home run rate well below league average. This was particularly the case in Rochester. There, he induced only 31.6% groundballs, and also had a home run per fly ball rate of just 6.6%. Overall, though, I'm sorry to see him go.
The second move was one we all could see coming for a while: Joe Crede was placed on the Disabled List. Somehow he had avoided the DL to this point in 2009, despite facing a myriad of injuries that included everything except a bruised testicle (a la Adrian Beltre). He finally succumbed from a back injury related to post-operative changes there, whatever that means.
In his stead, the Twins have called on Jose Morales for the third time this season. I suspect they simply wanted him available for the play-off roster, and figured they could make do with being short on infield subs until September 1st when rosters expand. Morales, of course, deserves the opportunity to play in the bigs and hopefully he'll showcase the skills necessary to make him Joe Mauer's backup next season.
And finally there were the two new acquisitions: Ron Mahay and Jon Rauch. The Twins picked up Mahay for some spare change and that's just about all he's worth. Someone at Fangraphs accurately described him as "left-handed and breathing". He was decent at best the last two years, and this year he's been pretty awful. His ERA has always been fairly pretty, and it still looks okay in 2009, but his FIP is 5.80 and he's continued to walk batters at a rate of over 4 per inning. The big jump this year has been in his hit rate, as he's given up 55 in just 41.1 inning versus less than one per inning for his career. While I don't expect him to be an improvement at all, he probably can't be much worse than the likes of Phil Humber and Bobby Keppel.
Speaking of Humber, he was sent down to AAA along with Armando Gabino to make room on the roster for Rauch and Mahay. Rauch is more promising than Mahay, as he has been better this year and had a few very nice years with the Nationals. He hasn't pitched in the American League before, though, so it remains to be seen if he will be as effective in the more hitter-friendly environment.
As I predicted earlier in the week, Gabino will not make another start or even another appearance (although it's possible he gets another shot in September). As such, the Twins have chosen Jeff Manship to take the final spot in the rotation. He shouldn't get too attached, though, as Minnesota's shown a willingness to pull the plug quickly on the young guys who don't come through.
Oh, and with all that going on, the Twins managed to win their game Friday night by the score of 3-2, behind a wonderful 7-inning gem from Brian Duensing. Yes, Brian Duensing.
I'll start with the bad news, and that's that the Twins lost Yohan Pino to the Indians. Pino turned out to be the player-to-be-named in the deal for Carl Pavano. This certainly makes the deal less appealing than it was a month ago, when I figured they wouldn't be relinquishing someone who's pitching pretty well in AAA right now. In fact, I may have been clamoring for Pino to move into the fifth spot in the rotation if he were still here.
Pino had been a solid prospect until this year, but he really started to impress me in both AA and AAA this year. He struck out over a batter per inning in AA and had four strikeouts for ever walk, culminating in an 3.19 ERA and 2.99 FIP. In AAA, his strikeouts dropped to 7.76 K/9, but he lowered his walks to keep his K:BB rate at an even 4.0. His ERA and FIP were still still strong too, at 2.82 and 3.45 respectively.
There were some red flags, though, as he got a very low percentage of groundballs, and yet had a home run rate well below league average. This was particularly the case in Rochester. There, he induced only 31.6% groundballs, and also had a home run per fly ball rate of just 6.6%. Overall, though, I'm sorry to see him go.
The second move was one we all could see coming for a while: Joe Crede was placed on the Disabled List. Somehow he had avoided the DL to this point in 2009, despite facing a myriad of injuries that included everything except a bruised testicle (a la Adrian Beltre). He finally succumbed from a back injury related to post-operative changes there, whatever that means.
In his stead, the Twins have called on Jose Morales for the third time this season. I suspect they simply wanted him available for the play-off roster, and figured they could make do with being short on infield subs until September 1st when rosters expand. Morales, of course, deserves the opportunity to play in the bigs and hopefully he'll showcase the skills necessary to make him Joe Mauer's backup next season.
And finally there were the two new acquisitions: Ron Mahay and Jon Rauch. The Twins picked up Mahay for some spare change and that's just about all he's worth. Someone at Fangraphs accurately described him as "left-handed and breathing". He was decent at best the last two years, and this year he's been pretty awful. His ERA has always been fairly pretty, and it still looks okay in 2009, but his FIP is 5.80 and he's continued to walk batters at a rate of over 4 per inning. The big jump this year has been in his hit rate, as he's given up 55 in just 41.1 inning versus less than one per inning for his career. While I don't expect him to be an improvement at all, he probably can't be much worse than the likes of Phil Humber and Bobby Keppel.
Speaking of Humber, he was sent down to AAA along with Armando Gabino to make room on the roster for Rauch and Mahay. Rauch is more promising than Mahay, as he has been better this year and had a few very nice years with the Nationals. He hasn't pitched in the American League before, though, so it remains to be seen if he will be as effective in the more hitter-friendly environment.
As I predicted earlier in the week, Gabino will not make another start or even another appearance (although it's possible he gets another shot in September). As such, the Twins have chosen Jeff Manship to take the final spot in the rotation. He shouldn't get too attached, though, as Minnesota's shown a willingness to pull the plug quickly on the young guys who don't come through.
Oh, and with all that going on, the Twins managed to win their game Friday night by the score of 3-2, behind a wonderful 7-inning gem from Brian Duensing. Yes, Brian Duensing.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Great News
David Eckstein has re-upped with the Padres for 2010, meaning the Twins will be unable to pursue him in the offseason. Given Ron Gardenhire's inexplicable (but also unsurprising) love for the diminuitive, light-hitting middle infielder and Orlando Cabrera's impending free agency, that allows me to breath a sigh of relief.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Carl Pavano
The Twins have finally addressed their pitching issues by nabbing Carl Pavano from the Indians. While Pavano sports an ugly 5.37 ERA that doesn't look like much of an improvement, his FIP is a much more encouraging 4.26. This was a necessary move, as the starting rotation was suddenly beginning to look like one of the worst in a long time, and I think Pavano will be better than whoever's spot he takes.
Whose will it be, though? Scott Baker obviously stays, and Nick Blackburn is a virtual certainty too, but that still leaves three options to move to the bullpen: Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, and Anthony Swarzak. Swarzak has the best numbers of the three, but he's also right-handed and the newbie. Liriano and Perkins have both pitched pretty badly over a good number of starts, so it's all a matter of guesswork which one of those two has the edge.
We do know, however, who is leaving the Twins to make room, and it's R.A. Dickey. After a hot start that lasted through June, Dickey had a 2.45 ERA, 31-to-17 K:BB ratio, 40 hits allowed, and a 53% groundball rate in 40 innings. In the last month-plus though, he's posted a 9.30 ERA, 11-to-13 K:BB ratio, allowed 34 hits, and induced only 36.3% groundballs.
While this move doesn't inspire great confidence in me, something clearly needed to be done in regard to the pitching staff, and this was definitely an improvement.
Whose will it be, though? Scott Baker obviously stays, and Nick Blackburn is a virtual certainty too, but that still leaves three options to move to the bullpen: Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, and Anthony Swarzak. Swarzak has the best numbers of the three, but he's also right-handed and the newbie. Liriano and Perkins have both pitched pretty badly over a good number of starts, so it's all a matter of guesswork which one of those two has the edge.
We do know, however, who is leaving the Twins to make room, and it's R.A. Dickey. After a hot start that lasted through June, Dickey had a 2.45 ERA, 31-to-17 K:BB ratio, 40 hits allowed, and a 53% groundball rate in 40 innings. In the last month-plus though, he's posted a 9.30 ERA, 11-to-13 K:BB ratio, allowed 34 hits, and induced only 36.3% groundballs.
While this move doesn't inspire great confidence in me, something clearly needed to be done in regard to the pitching staff, and this was definitely an improvement.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Twins get Orlando Cabrera
As was rumored very frequently over the past week, the Twins have finally finished a trade for Oakland Athletics' shortstop Orlando Cabrera. This certainly didn't come out of nowhere, meaning most people have already decided whether or not this would be a good addition before it actually happened. What I said previously was: "I think it would be a mistake to trade for Orlando Cabrera, unless it were just a very marginal prospect, because he figures to be only a marginal upgrade."
I went on to say that he would be a little bit more of an upgrade if he took Nick Punto's spot in the lineup, rather than Brendan Harris'. I'm trying to talk myself into Cabrera, but I just don't think he's going to make that big of a difference. However, with Freddy Sanchez traded to the Giants (for much more than the Twins would have--or should have--given up), and Marco Scutaro seemingly not available unless Roy Halladay is traded, I'm happy the Twins made a move that was at least a slight improvement (as opposed to, say, grabbing David Eckstein).
Now, with Cabrera actually acquired, I'm going to delve much more into the statistics than I did in my last discussion of him. His offense is not so good, but that makes him many times better than Punto, and a tad better than Harris. I realize I'm sort of just ignoring Alexi Casilla in this discussion, but that's because I'm assuming he'll be sent to Rochester to make room for the new acquisition. If Ron Gardenhire puts him in the #2 spot, as I presume he will, that would be a mistake, since his OBP is only .318 (and .322 for his career). Of course, it won't be nearly the mistake that having Casilla or Tolbert there was.
Meanwhile, his normally good defense (5.0 UZR/150 career) has taken a hit this year. He has rated as a pretty sub-par shortstop in 2009 (-9.6 UZR/150), and he's already played almost 900 innings there this season, which makes it hard to blame on a small sample. In fact, according to UZR, Harris has been a significantly better shortstop this year. It's bold, certainly, but maybe it'd be a good idea to try Harris at short and Cabrera at second base. Cabrera played 3 innings at second in 2000, and otherwise hasn't played there since 1998.
I really have no credentials to be judging how hard it would be for Cabrera to adjust to the position, so I won't try. All I'll say is the Twins should give it a shot if they think its doable. Now, I know they never will, and since Gardy hates Harris at 2B, I think that means Punto will still be playing every day.
So, I've talked about Cabrera plenty, but what about the player the Twins traded to the Athletics: Tyler Ladendorf? Ladendorf is a 21-year-old shortstop who was the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2008, and was currently playing at Low-A Beloit. He was hitting pretty poorly (.233/.292/.267) but that was in just 65 plate appearances, so you can't make too much of it. He was promoted to Beloit earlier this year after mashing for 74 plate appearances in Elizabethton (.410/.500/.721). He was ranked #32 among Twins prospects by Aaron Gleeman, but middle infield is a very weak position throughout the organization and he was considered a good prospect by many people.
My overall reaction to the deal is a slight thumbs up. With everything that's been going on--from Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan's comments to groaning fans--I'm glad the Twins were able to put something together. Additionally, it's something that has the potential to help the team, but only if Gardenhire plays it the right way (he almost certainly won't). And they didn't give up anything great to obtain Cabrera. At this point, only time will tell if it was the right move.
I went on to say that he would be a little bit more of an upgrade if he took Nick Punto's spot in the lineup, rather than Brendan Harris'. I'm trying to talk myself into Cabrera, but I just don't think he's going to make that big of a difference. However, with Freddy Sanchez traded to the Giants (for much more than the Twins would have--or should have--given up), and Marco Scutaro seemingly not available unless Roy Halladay is traded, I'm happy the Twins made a move that was at least a slight improvement (as opposed to, say, grabbing David Eckstein).
Now, with Cabrera actually acquired, I'm going to delve much more into the statistics than I did in my last discussion of him. His offense is not so good, but that makes him many times better than Punto, and a tad better than Harris. I realize I'm sort of just ignoring Alexi Casilla in this discussion, but that's because I'm assuming he'll be sent to Rochester to make room for the new acquisition. If Ron Gardenhire puts him in the #2 spot, as I presume he will, that would be a mistake, since his OBP is only .318 (and .322 for his career). Of course, it won't be nearly the mistake that having Casilla or Tolbert there was.
Meanwhile, his normally good defense (5.0 UZR/150 career) has taken a hit this year. He has rated as a pretty sub-par shortstop in 2009 (-9.6 UZR/150), and he's already played almost 900 innings there this season, which makes it hard to blame on a small sample. In fact, according to UZR, Harris has been a significantly better shortstop this year. It's bold, certainly, but maybe it'd be a good idea to try Harris at short and Cabrera at second base. Cabrera played 3 innings at second in 2000, and otherwise hasn't played there since 1998.
I really have no credentials to be judging how hard it would be for Cabrera to adjust to the position, so I won't try. All I'll say is the Twins should give it a shot if they think its doable. Now, I know they never will, and since Gardy hates Harris at 2B, I think that means Punto will still be playing every day.
So, I've talked about Cabrera plenty, but what about the player the Twins traded to the Athletics: Tyler Ladendorf? Ladendorf is a 21-year-old shortstop who was the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2008, and was currently playing at Low-A Beloit. He was hitting pretty poorly (.233/.292/.267) but that was in just 65 plate appearances, so you can't make too much of it. He was promoted to Beloit earlier this year after mashing for 74 plate appearances in Elizabethton (.410/.500/.721). He was ranked #32 among Twins prospects by Aaron Gleeman, but middle infield is a very weak position throughout the organization and he was considered a good prospect by many people.
My overall reaction to the deal is a slight thumbs up. With everything that's been going on--from Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan's comments to groaning fans--I'm glad the Twins were able to put something together. Additionally, it's something that has the potential to help the team, but only if Gardenhire plays it the right way (he almost certainly won't). And they didn't give up anything great to obtain Cabrera. At this point, only time will tell if it was the right move.
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