The Delmon Young Experiment Ends

Twins fans will never have to watch Delmon Young do this to their team ever again

The Twins have just sent Delmon Young to a divisional rival, Detroit, in return for an uninspiring package.  The Tigers currently have Brennan Boesch, Austin Jackson, and Magglio Ordonez in the outfield, and the word is that Ordonez is the one most likely to lose playing time.  Ordonez has been quite underwhelming this season, as he currently holds a triple slash of .223/.280/.295, but Young hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire either.

In return, the Twins receive minor league left-hander Cole Nelson and a player to be named later.  Nelson stands 6-7 and weighs 240 pounds, so he's a highly desirable commodity: a projectable left-handed pitcher.  On the other hand, he just hasn't pitched all that well to this point.  I couldn't find him listed on any prospect lists coming into the year, with the most expansive ones I looked at being Bless You Boys' ranking of the top 30 Tiger farmhands and John Sickels' top 20 (plus others under consideration).

Cole Nelson

Nelson grew up in Edina, Minnesota before going to college at Auburn.  The Tigers selected him in the 10th round of the 2010 draft, and he split that season between the Rookie and High-A levels, throwing just 27.1 innings.  2011 has been his first full season, and he's spent it all at high Single-A.  He's managed just a 4.87 ERA and an ugly 1.64 WHIP, along with a mediocre 87-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 105.1 innings.  All in all Nelson doesn't seem like he's destined to pitch in the big leagues, although his size and handedness keep him relevant.

It's a pretty disappointing return for Delmon Young.  Given that he would command a salary at least in the $6 million range next year, the Twins would be understandably hesitant about tendering him a contract.  Operating under that assumption, it makes sense that Minnesota would want to deal him now, rather than losing him for nothing in the offseason.  However, one would have hoped that the Twins could have gotten more than a marginal prospect and a player to be named later, who's likely even less of a prospect, for a player with Young's pedigree and talent who's still only 25 years old.

Of course Young has actually played horribly, save a power-infused 2010 season.  Other than that he's put together three awful seasons with the Twins, butchering plays in left field, rarely getting on base, and displaying little of the power he was supposed to have.  As it stands the Twins gave up a #2 pitcher, a starting shortstop, and a minor league pitcher for two other non-contributors and the privilege to completely overpay Young for a couple seasons.  And now they've traded Young for two marginal prospects at best.  I honestly can't say what I thought about the original trade, since I didn't write anything about it and I don't remember, but in hindsight it's obvious that it did not work out in the Twins' favor.

Young will be around the Twins for a little longer, though, as Minnesota starts a series with Detroit tonight.  Rene Tosoni has been recalled to take Young's spot on the roster.

Twins Crank 5 Homers to Beat Angels

Coming off of three consecutive losses in which the starting pitchers had combined to allow 36 walks-plus-hits and 19 runs in 14.1 innings, the Twins could really have used a strong start from Scott Baker.  Instead Baker continued the miserable run of starting pitching, tacking on just 3 innings to the totals, but adding 6 walks-plus-hits and 4 runs.  Anthony Swarzak was up to the task, however, pitching 5 excellent innings of relief, allowing only one hit and one walk.

The game actually started smoothly for Baker, and through the first two innings he was looking effective.  Everything completely unraveled in the third frame, though, as he was forced to throw 46 pitches to make it through the disastrous inning.  While Swarzak held the Angels down, the bats ensured the win.  The Twins tied their season high in runs with 11, hit 5 home runs, and tallied 7 extra base hits.  The 5 home runs are also a season-high, and a feat the team has accomplished only two other times since 2008.  Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young had two home runs each, the first time that two Twins players have both had multi-homer games since October of 2009.  That time it was Young and Jason Kubel who victimized the Kansas City Royals.  Kubel also added the fifth home run in this game.

Minnesota was aided by Horacio Ramirez, who was brought up by the Angels to toss batting practice before games, but was mistakenly identified as a real pitcher by Mike Scioscia.  Seriously, since he was called up he has faced 20 hitters and given up 10 hits and 2 walks.  Of course it's a really small sample, but so far the returns indicate that when you bring in a a 31-year old pitcher who was never very good to begin with, has a career WHIP of 1.49, and has almost as many strikeouts as walks over his career... well, he's not really going to pitch that well.  The Twins, one would hope, learned this lesson long ago after their attempts to bring in Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, and every veteran innings eater who can't get a contract with any other team because they are terrible.

Who is Delmon Young?

Young misplays a fly ball, allowing it to become a game-tying  inside-the-park-home-run

Delmon Young was, at one point, the hottest prospect in baseball.  Taken first overall out of high school by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 2003 draft, Young did not play at all in the minors that season because he didn't sign until September.  The Devil Rays inked him to a 5-year, $5.8 million Major League contract and immediately sent him to the Arizona Fall League, a league reserved for each organization's top prospects.  Usually the rosters consist of Double-A and Triple-A players, along with the very occasional Single-A player, but they almost never include players who have yet to play an inning of professional baseball.

After Young hit .417 in the AFL, he was assigned to Low Single-A Charleston.  Although he struck out a lot, he flashed the power and speed combination that had teams salivating over his potential, and he did it all as an 18-year old.  He skipped High Single-A and reported directly to Double-A at the start of the 2005 season.  He again hit very well, showcasing the tools that got him drafted number one overall and earning a mid-season promotion to Triple-A.  It was there that his lack of patience at the plate really cropped up as a foreboding sign of things to come.

Despite that, Young's performance, combined with the fact that he was playing at Triple-A when he was only 19, made Baseball America rank him as the top prospect in all of baseball.  But the 2006 season did not go as planned.  Rather than forcing his way into the big leagues, Young was forced to sit out 50 games because he threw his bat at an umpire following a called third strike that he disagreed with.  He still managed to make an appearance in Tampa Bay as the Devil Rays brought him up in late August, and made very solid contributions at the tender age of 20.

His rookie year, 2007, was an interesting one.  He drove in 93 runs, and garnered enough support to place second in Rookie of the Year voting, but he also showed a total lack of plate discipline and did not display nearly as much power as his pedigree suggested.  Either because he was still so young, or because they were swayed by the same thinking as the Rookie of the Year voters, that performance convinced the Twins to acquire him in a blockbuster trade.  That offseason, Minnesota sent Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for Young, along with Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie.

Young went 2-4 and stole a base in his first game with Minnesota, but it didn't take long for Twins fans to become disenchanted with Young.  Although he showed slightly improved plate discipline, his power disappeared altogether as it took him over 250 plate appearances to hit his first home run.  Meanwhile, questions about his effort and attitude cropped up, and his defense appeared to be legitimately awful.  Though his power picked up in the second half of the season, on the whole his performance was a replica of his 2007 season; that is to say, not what was expected from the #1 prospect in baseball.

The more Twins fans saw of him, the more ostracized he became.  He simply didn't look like an athlete; he lumbered around clumsily in left field, he seemed to be running on glass on the basepaths, and he didn't appear to have any interest in solving his hitting issues.  As a result, he lost a lot of playing time during the 2009 season due to Denard Span's emergence.  2010, then, was make or break.  With Carlos Gomez out of the way, there was no longer an outfield logjam and he had clear playing time.  He reported to camp significantly lighter and finally seemed serious about making good on his potential.  And he had by far his best season, hitting 21 homers, driving in 112 runs, cutting down on his strikeouts, and upping his slugging percentage.

But the same issues were still present: he was allergic to walking and his fielding could still be considered the worst of any outfielder in baseball, though at least his attitude looked better.  In 2011, he did not maintain the moderate success from 2010, and was again struggling in all aspects of the game.  Teams always find it difficult to give up on a player who once had so much potential, and Minnesota was no exception, particularly because Young had showed major improvements the previous year.  But enough was finally enough in August of 2011, and the Twins traded Delmon Young to division rival Detroit for an underwhelming player to be named later, identified as Lester Oliveres just a few days later.  The very modest return exemplified just how far Young had fallen since Minnesota traded for him after the 2007 season.


Updated August 27, 2011

Elf Yourself #2

Jim Thome Beats Former Team (and other ramblings)

It was an interesting night for the Twins.  First, the offense jumped on John Danks, scoring 4 runs in the first inning.  Scott Baker responded by giving back 3 runs in the next half-inning and only managed to make it through 4 2/3 pretty miserable innings.  That was the last straw, as I finally had to jettison him from my fantasy team.  I showed a lot of faith and really wanted to hang on to him, but I could no longer justify rostering him.

After Matt Capps blew a save in the 9th and Jon Rauch gave the White Sox the lead in the 10th, the Twins were facing a 6-5 deficit with 3 outs to go; they would need none of them.  Delmon Young, who'd earlier broken out of a slump with a homer, singled to lead off the Twins' half of the 10th.  Jim Thome followed that with an absolute laser to right field, giving Minnesota a 7-6 victory over the White Sox.

It's fitting that it was Thome who sealed the win, as he spent many seasons with Chicago before signing a one-year deal with the Twins this off-season.  It's fitting because Chicago so clearly has a need for someone exactly like Thome, and because the Twins have benefited so greatly from their signing of Thome.  While the Twins rank third among AL teams in OPS and wOBA from their DH spot (.838 and .360), the White Sox rank in the bottom third in both categories (.715 and .313).

[A quick aside.  The Mariners have received a .256 wOBA from their aggregate DH this season.  The guy who is put in the lineup to do nothing other than hit has a .182 average, a .260 OBP, and a .303 slugging percent.  Again, this guy's ONLY job is to hit.  By definition, he does nothing else.  The Mariners might want to propose a move to the National League.]

Thome, of course, has a significant number of the Twins' designated hitter appearances.  His performance, in fact, is far and above the aggregate DH total for the Twins.  His wOBA sits at a robust .416 and he's slugged 17 homers in his role as a part-time player.  And to think that I questioned his signing at the time!  To be fair, though, as one of Delmon Young's last supporters, I was more worried about him cutting into Delmon's playing time than anything else.

And that has not happened, largely because Young has rebounded and been a productive player this year.  I don't want to go crazy, however, as I am worried the Twins will.  He still doesn't walk at all and even if he's improved on defense, he's still below average--he's just not the worst outfield defender in the league anymore.  But what gets the money is home runs and runs batted in, which Young is doing prolifically.  I'm concerned that the Twins will see that and overpay for a player who, while no longer useless, does have significant flaws.  I would love to see Young continue playing for the Twins but not if he's going to be demonstrably overvalued.

Since I'm on the topic of Young anyways, I would be remiss not to mention his collision with A.J. Pierzynski at home plate yesterday.  Rather than trying to slide in for the run (which possibly could have been successful), Young made a beeline for Pierzynski and shoved him in the face.  It was ostensibly in the course of trying to score, so there won't be a punishment, but it was a pretty blatant maneuver.

One of the things I love about the Twins is that things like that almost never happen.  The Twins don't stoop to the level of immature children like most baseball teams do.  When a Twin gets hit, for instance, they take their lump and thank the opposing team for the automatic base-runner, rather than charging the mound or silently plotting their eventual vindication.  Seeing Glen Perkins hit Carlos Quentin twice after he homered, or seeing Young do what he did yesterday, is the rare exception to the rule.

On the other side are the White Sox announcers.  And the more I listen to them, the more I enjoy beating the White Sox solely to hear them suffer.  They are insufferable and unwatchable, and continue to be the only commentators I've heard who have absolutely no regard for impartiality.  When a ball is hit, you can practically guarantee that you'll hear "Stretch" or "Get down" or any number of prayers sent toward the ball that would help Chicago.  In this case, however, I'm talking about how vengeful they are.  I guess they are like most people in baseball in that respect, but it's a part of the game I could certainly do without.  In response to Young's play on Pierzynski, their immediate reaction was this: "All right.  All right, Delmon.  You got it, buddy.  We'll see what happens either later on this series or when y'all come back to us."  And a few moments later: "I wonder how this Rawlings would look stuck in the earhole of his helmet."

Really?  I don't understand this.  Can't we just admit it was a lapse in judgment and move on?  Do we really need to plot our revenge that we'll take in a few weeks?  Especially a revenge that is so dangerous?  Many people seem to believe that throwing at a player is so innocuous.  What about Justin Morneau?  Remember how much he suffered after he was hit in the head with a pitch back in 2004 (not that that was on purpose)?  I'm sure you're aware of the time he's missed this year from what appeared to be a harmless collision.  Head injuries are serious--players shouldn't have their safety risked just so people can get their petty revenge.

Why?

The Twins have won six games in a row.  They've been an offensive juggernaut over that span, and they've gotten some pretty darn good pitching too.  Today's post was supposed to be about how incredible Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Danny Valencia have been of late.  About how Mauer is 27-for-51 with 17 RBIs in 12 games against Kansas City this year, giving him a triple slash line of .529/.550/.784.  About how Young has been one of the best hitters in the Majors in July, putting up a line of .439/.462/.745.  About how he's been ever more ridiculous in his last six games, going 15-for-31 with 3 homers and a 1.513 OPS.  About how, for four games, Valencia lit the world on fire, collecting 14 hits in 20 at bats to go with a 4 doubles, a grand slam, and 8 RBIs.

But then Bill Smith had to go and ruin all that good work of the Minnesota players.  Bill Smith had to go and trade Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps.  Wilson Ramos, the same guy who was a consensus top-5 prospect in the Twins' organization and ranked the #58 overall prospect by Baseball America at the beginning of the season.  And if that wasn't enough, the Twins also sent minor league pitcher Joe Testa to Washington.  I guess to be thorough I should mention the Twins are getting cash considerations, but does that really matter?

I just don't understand this at all.  Capps is a solid reliever, but the Twins already have a bunch of solid relievers.  It's pretty clear this is just another over-valuation of the save statistic.  Bill Smith and the Twins organization saw a guy who had struggled in the month of July (Jon Rauch); on the other side, they saw a guy who's picked up 26 saves in 30 chances for Washington.  Of course they didn't see that Rauch's FIP is 3.43, a tad better than Capps' 3.51.  How can they be so oblivious to this?

Congratulations to Mike Rizzo, the Nationals' General Manager.  He convinced the Twins to trade a top prospect for just a solid reliever, and even managed to steal a second player.  While Testa is no world-beater, he was ranked #40 among Twins prospects by Aaron Gleeman and #49 by Seth Stohs this past off-season, so he's not a total nobody.  Ramos may not have had any future with the Twins, since they've got Mauer, but that doesn't mean you just give him away.

They couldn't have gotten anything better for Ramos?  I really find that hard to believe.  I want to say that Rizzo extracted more from the Twins than the Diamondbacks managed to get for Dan Haren!  This deal just absolutely confounds me.  When Twin #2 told me, I was sure he was joking.  Then I went through denial as I begged him to tell me it wasn't true.  And now I'm in the stage of depression, but hopefully I'll move onto acceptance sometime soon.  As Twin #2 pointed out to me, we better see Capps closing out the World Series for the Twins this October, or this was just a complete waste of talent.  And even then...

Delmon Young vs. Joe Mauer

You know the world is a funny place when Delmon Young not only has a higher batting average than Joe Mauer, but also a better OPS and even a better wOBA! Young, of course, plays left field while Mauer plays catcher, so Joe has still rated as the more valuable player, but if someone had told me before the season started that that difference would be just 0.4 WAR, I probably would have laughed in their face.

But for all those people who held strong to their belief that the potential Young had displayed to entice the Rays to pick him first overall and to convince the Twins to trade for him was still there, the 2010 season has been a vindication. I consider myself one who was in the camp to give Young another shot to start everyday this year, but I can't say I was one who thought he'd actually make anything of it.

And, while Mauer's numbers are down compared to last year (an unavoidable regression) and compared to his career numbers (a more disappointing fact), Young's stats are very solid. After being worth an abominable -1.8 wins in his first two seasons in Minnesota, including a horrifying -1.1 wins in just 108 games last year, Young's 2010 mark of 1.3 ranks 9th among left fielders (as classified by FanGraphs).

Better yet, the underlying numbers suggest that the strides he's made are for real. His BABIP is a reasonable .308, a number that is actually lower than his incredibly consistent .338 BABIP from each of the last three years. His HR/FB % of 11.4, although slightly higher than his career mark, is right around league average and is the same as what he posted in 2009.

So then what is behind his newfound success? The answer is simple: more fly balls and walks and fewer ground balls and strikeouts. The increased number of fly balls means more homers, and the increase in free passes--though still very low compared to the average hitter--results, obviously, in a better OBP. The strikeouts are the part of this equation least likely to hold up, as his respectable 14:23 BB:K ratio rests on an 11.2 K%, which more than cuts in half his rate from last year.

And then there's his fielding. While it's tough to judge anything based on two and a half months of data, UZR has him as being just above average in left field, which is a huge upgrade over his worst-outfielder-in-the-majors ratings from 2008 and 2009. His slimmer physique may have something to do with it, but so could the always-boring excuse of measurement error.

All in all, though, Delmon Young's improvement looks to be largely for real. I hope that the vast majority of us Twins fans who gave up on him are proved to have been decidedly too impatient.

Delmon Young

Delmon Young just entered the game in the eighth inning as a defensive replacement. Read that again, because it's true. The worst outfield defender in the entire American League last year just came on as a defensive replacement.

OK, it's official--I should move the blog to Twitter.

Week of 8/17 to 8/23

Hot

1. Joe Mauer: 11-28, 6 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 6 BB:2 K, 1 SB, .393/.500/.750
2. Michael Cuddyer: 11-31, 6 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB:5 K, .355/.375/.774
3. Denard Span: 12-30, 5 R, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB:3 K, .400/.471/.567

1. Scott Baker: 2-0, 14.1 IP, 11 H, 2 BB, 11 K, 2.51/0.91
2. Jose Mijares: 0-0, 9 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 0.00/0.89


Cold

1. Jason Kubel: 5-24, 2 R, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB:6 K, .208/.240/.250
2. Joe Crede: 3-18, 3 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB:0 K, .167/.250/.222

1. Anthony Swarzak: 0-2, 9.1 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 6 K, 10.61/2.04
2. Jeff Manship: 0-0, 5.1 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 5.06/1.88



--Defensive plays of the week--
(Click on the pictures for a larger image)

#3- Delmon Young makes a sliding catch to end a shaky inning by Matt Guerrier and keep the Twins within reach. They wouldn't make up the ground, though, and wound up losing anyways.

#2- Joe Crede makes a diving stab towards the third base line and fires a strong throw over to Brendan Harris. It sails a little high, but Harris is able to come down on the bag in plenty of time for the out. [Inexplicably, this isn't a 'highlight' on MLB.com, so I linked to the condensed game instead; it's at the 6:50 mark in the video.]


#1- Alexi Casilla makes one of his two awesome plays in the weekend series against the Royals. With two runners in scoring position and two outs, Casilla goes all-out to nab a Billy Butler grounder and save at least one run.


Oddball play of the week- Philip Humber, in a desperate attempt to get an out on a weakly hit grounder, tosses the ball to third base without looking. Unfortunately, the base and Omar Vizquel are the only things in the vicinity as Joe Crede had charged to field it himself. Vizquel scores easily as the ball rolls into foul territory. [Also no individual video, at 1:00 mark of recap.]

Plays of the Week

At the suggestion of frequent commenter Barnacle, I have decided to start posting defensive plays of the week to go with the Hot & Cold feature. I can't post the videos directly because of Major League Baseball's strict copyright laws, but I will put up pictures and link to the videos.

Usually I'll include it in the same post as Hot & Cold, but since it's the inaugural edition, I figured I'd let it stand alone.

#3- Delmon Young makes the catch in foul ground and completes the double play by nailing Alberto Callaspo at home plate. Unfortunately, even with that play, the Twins were already down 9-1 in the 4th inning.

#2- Orlando Cabrera robs Billy Butler of a base-hit, sliding to his right and getting up quickly to make a strong throw to first base. He would do it again the next day in almost the exact same fashion, but it would be too boring to have both of them on this list.

#1- Matt Guerrier attempts to start a double play, but throws low and Cabrera can't handle it. As the ball bounces away, Josh Anderson takes off for third, but Nick Punto is alert and chases the ball down and fires it to Joe Crede just in time to get Anderson out.


Oddball play of the week: Justin Morneau strikes out and makes it all the way back to the dugout before the umpires confer and allow him to continue hitting. After looking at the ball, they determine that he did tip it (inconclusive on the replay) and that it hit the ground before Kelly Shoppach caught it (also inconclusive). With the Indians already trailing 9-0, Eric Wedge of course gets tossed and really gets his money's worth.

Another real bad inning

Well, for the Twins it was very good. For Delmon Young, though, it was very bad. I feel obligated to make this post since I did the same to Brendan Harris a little while ago.

The Twins scored 6 runs on 5 hits, 3 walks, and 1 error in the fourth inning tonight against the Indians. Unfortunately for Young, he made all 3 outs in the inning, chasing a pitch in the dirt for strike three and the first out, and tapping into a 1-4-3 double play with the bases loaded to end the inning. And that leaves him as the only Twin hitter yet to reach base.

GM Analysis: Trades

On September 14, 2007, Twin #1 made the inaugural post on this blog. About 12 hours earlier, Terry Ryan had announced his resignation from the general manager position that he held since the early 1990s. The Twins announced that his successor would be his former right-hand man, assistant GM Bill Smith. In his first offseason, Smith guided the Twins through tough situations with Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. The team finished his first season at the helm in a tie for first place, but missed the playoffs when they lost the memorable one-game playoff against the White Sox. The following winter was much quieter than his first, with the biggest move being the signing of Joe Crede in late February. With the trade deadline fast approaching, I thought now would be a good time to take a more detailed look at Smith's (mostly underwhelming) work thus far.

November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.

November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.

January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.

August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.

So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.

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A Note on Delmon Young

On the surface, Delmon Young has played pretty well over the past month. He's hit .284 in the month of June, and even has 4 doubles and a home run. That's not great, but before that he was hitting .239 and had only 1 double and one home run.

Of course, as is often the case with Young, you don't have to dig too deep to see he hasn't been very good at all. While he's been better than he was in April and May, he's still been awful. What's most remarkable, even for Delmon, is that he hasn't walked since May 28th--a span of 78 plate appearances! Over that same time, he's struck out 26 times.

That's how, since May 30th, Young has raised his batting average 20 points, from .236 to .256, yet still has exactly the same on base percentage as he had on that day: .281.

Astros down Twins

It was a tough loss for the Twins, as Scott Baker took a 2-run lead into the seventh and then left after allowing one run. Sean Henn couldn't strand the baserunner, and in fact allowed the go-ahead run to score on Michael Bourn's two-run homer. I know there aren't a lot of options out of the bullpen, but I think Henn should be about the last guy out there in a close game--and a runner on second in a one-run game certainly qualifies as that.

Despite some early success (9 G, 10 IP, 3 R), I was not convinced that Henn was a good pitcher. Now, in his last 4 appearances, he's pitched a total of one inning and allowed 6 runs (all earned) on three hits and three walks. Suddenly his ERA is 7.36 through eleven innings to go with an 8-to-6 K:BB ratio. He couldn't outrun his ability for too long (and only did through 10 innngs), and now his numbers are much more in line with his career track record. And you can't blame it on luck as his FIP is 5.88 (sure, lower than his actual ERA, but still pretty bad) and his BABIP of .233. Both of those are much better than his career rates, of 6.52 and .325 respectively. I was disappointed when Henn was essentially brought up to replace Craig Breslow, and it'll only make things worse if Gardy continues to trust him in tight situations.


It wasn't just the letdown by the bullpen, though; the Twins also hit 4 home runs, which would definitely make me think victory. Brendan Harris led off the game with a solo shot, Delmon Young hit his second of the year, Joe Mauer broke his career high with his 14th, and Jason Kubel hit a big two-run dinger again in the eighth inning.

For once, it seemed that Young was able to make an adjustment mid-at bat. Now, I don't claim to be an expert, but to my naked eye Young appears to dive after the same breaking pitch repeatedly in the same at bat, and miss horribly. This time, he did just that on the first pitch, only to wait on it the next time and crush it for a home run. That also gave him his third extra-base hit in the last two games, doubling his season total. Sure, the second double on Friday was a gift (Jason Michaels lost it in the lights), but he really smacked it, so you could say the Astros were lucky it was hit at somebody in the first place.

Mauer's homer came right after he attempted to bunt for a hit. That's something that I haven't seen him do yet this year, but something I remember him doing in the past. If he doesn't get on, of course you think it's a horrible idea for someone who's as good a hitter as he is. But it always seems like he gets on when he does try it. So I looked it up and in his career he is 18-for-28 on bunt hit attempts (64.3 %). That doesn't include foul bunts, but it's a pretty good percentage. This year, of 169 qualified hitters, only 13 have a better percentage, and none have more than 3 attempts. In fact, Mauer ranks 20th of 458 batters all-time in bunt hit % (only seasons after 2001 have that data), and none have as many attempts as Mauer. In fact, 14 of the 19 players ahead have 3 or fewer attempts. All in all, he's pretty good at it.

And Jose Morales FINALLY got into a game!

Victory

[Edit 5/27/07, 1:28 AM: I've just purchased MLB.TV, meaning that I will be watching almost every game from now on. This is very exciting, as I've only been able to watch a handful of games the past few seasons.]

This is going to be very short, as I've already spent a lot of time today working on very long posts meant for later this week.

The Twins beat the Red Sox 5-2 in the second game of the series thanks to a good start from Nick Blackburn and a three-run homer from Justin Morneau. Blackburn had a season-high 7 strikeouts in 7 innings, and gave up two runs (one earned). I was nervous when Gardy sent him out for the seventh inning, but Blackburn allowed only an unearned run in that frame. Matt Guerrier followed that with a perfect inning and Joe Nathan closed out the game for his seventh save.

Nick Punto also had a good day, which has been the case on rare occasions this season. Although he did make an error, he had two hits, including his third double of the season. His OPS jumped up to .516, though his average is still below the Mendoza Line.

Delmon Young is going in the opposite direction. Since returning from the bereavement list, he is hitless in 12 at bats and has 8 strikeouts, dropping his average to .242. It's getting harder and harder to hold out hope for Young, but maybe (just maybe? Or am I just wishing here?) these most recent struggles have been because of the passing of his mother. Whatever the reason is, he's running out of time to prove himself a competent Major League hitter.

That'll do it for this post, but like I said, I have some big posts coming later in the week, and one of them will probably be tomorrow.

Jose Morales Returns

Delmon Young has been placed on the bereavement list because of a serious illness in his family. He'll be in California for at least a few days, so Jose Morales has been called up to take his place on the roster. I think it's safe to assume that Morales will be with the team for the whole New York series, although Young technically only has to miss three days for being on the bereavement list.

During his time in Rochester, Morales played 9 games and hit .267/.421/.333 over 38 plate appearances. If you glanced at that quickly, you may have missed that he had an IsoD of .154 in his brief time in AAA--that's because he had an excellent 8:4 walk-to-strikeout ratio. In only 4 games at catcher (he DHed in the other five), Morales allowed yet another passed ball and three stolen bases, though he did catch one runner.

He probably won't be here for long, unless the Twins decide in a few days they'd rather have him than Brian Buscher or Carlos Gomez. I don't find that likely, especially Gomez, so he shouldn't get too used to the major league clubhouse.

Was that Livan Hernandez?

Kevin Slowey was utterly ineffective, at best, last night. His performance reminded me very much of Livan Hernandez last year--he allowed 13 (!) hits in just 5 1/3 innings, and also walked one to go along with just two strikeouts. He also gave up five runs, which makes his box score look eerily similar to one I'd expect from Hernandez. Of course, Slowey will certainly not be as bad as Hernandez, but after two lousy starts I'm concerned that he won't match my expectations, which I would describe as lofty. I took him in both of my fantasy leagues, so I've got three reasons to be rooting for him to turn it around.

The offense was pretty good, although it (or, more accurately, Delmon Young) failed to come through in some key situations. I actually like Young and think he should be given a chance, but it's hard for me to keep that stance with the way he's been playing so far this year. Despite already hitting a home run, he currently holds a .158 average and .474 OPS. Most disconcerting, though, is that he has 7 strikeous and zero walks in 19 plate appearances. I really am rooting for Young, but his slow start, especially with no improvement in his deficient areas from last year, worries me.

Now, that got me sidetracked. Today, specifically, Young came up twice with no outs and a runner in scoring position. In the fourth inning, with Brian Buscher on third, he struck out. In the eighth inning, with Brendan Harris on second, he struck out. In both cases, the next two batters also didn't get the job done (in fact only one even put the ball in play), but Young has to execute in those situations; simply poking the ball somewhere will at least make the infielder think and maybe make a mistake, and with a drawn-in infield it could easily result in a hit.

All in all, the Blue Jays amassed 19 hits in their victory, which is actually more than the Rays had in their 15-5 victory over the Yankees. You'll see periodic notes about the Yankees throughout the season due to my dislike of them. In this case, it's about someone who drafted Chien-Ming Wang in one of my fantasy leagues and bragged about him being the best sleeper of the draft. His ERA is now 28.93.

Double Play Delmon

Back-to-back bad losses to the White Sox is never something that gets you in a good mood. This one started well enough, with a homer by Delmon Young in the second inning, but it was only downhill from there. The Twins had only three hits and four baserunners through the first eight innings, which caused me to get sidetracked with a magazine I was reading before I noticed the bases were loaded with no outs in the ninth inning! I was subdued as quickly as I'd gotten excited, though, after Joe Crede struck out and Young grounded into a double play. Immediately before his at-bat, I thought to myself, "And now we've got Double Play Delmon up with the double play perfectly aligned." He obliged.

But, I went to the effort to see if the quick-triggered moniker was accurate. Turns out, Young led the American League in 2007 in GDP with 23, but was tied for 13th last year with 19. So... all in all, I'd say it's fair, but there's an argument against it.

That's the fourth time in their first seven games that the Twins have scored one or fewer runs. Shockingly, they've lost all of them, and won their other three games in which they've scored 6+ runs. It's no secret: if you don't put up multiple runs in a game, it makes it very difficult to win. This time it was Nick Blackburn taking the loss despite a quality start.

A few other non-Twins notes:

• Johan Santana pitched a gem but wound up on the losing end of the game thanks to two unearned runs. His line: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K. His adversary, Josh Johnson, did him one better though: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K.
• Cleveland finally picked up a victory in 2009, beating the Blue Jays 8-4. The Nationals are now the only winless team remaining.
• This is something a lot of us have been hoping to hear from Ron Gardenhire, but in this case it came from Jerry Manuel: "We're not necessarrily identifying saves--we're indentifying wins and losses." Click to read more quotes you wish Gardenhire would say regarding bringing in Joe Nathan in close, non-save situations.

Offseason Trade Review

On November 28th, 2007, LaVelle E. Neal III reported a potential blockbuster trade between the Twins and the newly-renamed Rays. A day earlier, I had posted about some trade chatter involving the same two teams and Boof Bonser, but what actually occured was much different. The original trade was reported to be OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris, and OF Jason Pridie to the Twins in exchange for SP Matt Garza, RP Juan Rincon, and SS Jason Bartlett. At the end of the day, some lingering injury concerns had forced Rincon out of the deal and pitching prospect Eduardo Morlan into the deal before it became official. At the time, many Twins fans were excited to get Young, who was immediately expected to replace Torii Hunter's bat and hit 30-40 home runs. Most people had no problem seeing Garza leave if it was in exchange for such a great offensive talent, especially with the supposed clashes that Garza had with the Twins' coaching staff. At the time, I wrote that "I liked Garza, but getting Young back for him is a great deal." Garza's clashes seemingly have continued, as evidenced by his on-field argument with catcher Dionner Navarro, but his results have made fans willing to overlook his faults. Garza has a 3.47 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 90.7 innings. His strikeouts are down so far this season, but he still has 2:1 K:BB ratio and has been especially excellent recently, throwing 29 innings in his last 4 starts while giving up 16 hits and 5 earned runs, walking 4, and striking out 24 (including a 1-hit, 10 K complete game).

Delmon Young, on the other hand, has a very dissapointing overall line of .284/.332/.385, but there are still some promising things underneath that underwhelming line. To start, Young's walk rate, and consequently his OBP, have significantly improved from last year, going from a .028 IsoD to a .048 IsoD. Also, he has heated up since the calendar turned to June, as his line since June 1 sits at .330/.354/.495 in 96 plate appearances. His walk rate was way down in June, but that could be due to a small sample size, just as his good numbers could be. The numbers show that he has been improving recently, but really all we know is that he was crowned as the next Frank Robinson way too soon, and then written off way too early after his early season slump.

The other four players in the deal have all underperformed for their new teams thus far. Jason Bartlett was placed on the DL today after struggling as the Rays' starting shortstop throughout the first half of the season. With an atrocious .256/.299/.293 batting line, you certainly can't give any of the credit for the Rays' turnaround to this former Twin. He has stolen 18 bases at an 86% success rate and his range as usual has been excellent, but there's really no excuse for hitting like he has unless you're Ozzie Smith. Harris, on the other hand, has been the only Twins' middle infielder to stay on the Major League roster the entire season, with Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Adam Everett all hitting the DL and Casilla spending time in Rochester. Of course, Harris has used that opportunity to hit only a little better than Bartlett while playing much worse defense. For some reason, people have been under the impression that Harris has played better since moving to shortstop, but his OPS there is actually 63 points lower there than at second base. Also, his OPS in June was only .649, though that was 40 points higher than in May.

The final two pieces of the deal were two minor leaguers, Jason Pridie and Eduardo Morlan. After putting up his first decent year in the minors since 2004 last year, Pridie has returned to the ways of a career .742 OPS minor leaguer. He has hit .235/.272/.361 with 5 homers and 16 stolen bases in 84 games at Rochester. His counterpart in a sense, Morlan, has fared no better, though for a different reason. Morlan, who struck out 99 in 69.2 innings in 2007, threw only 14.2 mediocre innings at AA this season before being placed on the DL with an injury.

All in all, it is still too early to give answer the question of who got the better end of the deal. However, it is still clear that the stars of the deal were Garza and Young, as the other four players do their best to show that they are not major league caliber players. Despite the fact that Garza has had the much better results thus far this season, there is still plenty of time for Young to prove that he was worthy of his billing as the top prospect in baseball a couple years back.

Home Run #1

Joe Mauer finally hit his first home run of the season last night, and it was an important one. With two outs in the seventh, Mauer came up and launched a solo shot way back in right field to tie the game at five apiece. Delmon Young then doubled home the winning run in the eighth.

It was only one of three RBI doubles for Young. Obviously, it was a good game for Young, but with Mauer's homer, he is now the only Twins' regular who is still holding a goose egg in that column. He had a good series against the Yankees, despite having some of the worst swings I've ever seen, so hopefully he can turn some of this recent success into a few balls clearing the fences.

Michael Cuddyer had another outfield assist, this time nailing Derek Jeter at second base. His play was simply very impressive. He knew right where to be after the ball bounced off the wall, bare-handed it, and threw an absolute strike to Brendan Harris.

Anyways, it was good to see the Twins come back and salvage a split of the series after losing two tough games to start.