Twins Thoughts

I haven't posted anything in a while, and that will probably continue to be true until the season starts, but I figured I'd weigh in on a few things.

--Signing Jim Thome isn't a bad move, especially for the low cost of $1.5 million plus incentives, but it just doesn't sit well with me. Trading Carlos Gomez was supposed to eliminate the glut of outfielders the Twins had, and allow everyone consistent playing time; now, however, they're right back where they started, with 5 players for four spots (outfield plus DH). I know many people are glad that this may mean less playing time for Delmon Young, but I'm not. He's been horrible for the last two seasons, there's no doubt about that, but I was hoping this would finally be the season where he could play full-time and the Twins would be able to decide whether or not he could live up to any of his potential.

--Signing Clay Condrey makes even less sense to me. With a bullpen already packed with solid relievers, I don't see why you'd pay extra money for a guy who could very well be replaced by one of the options in Rochester. The Twins already have Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, possibly Pat Neshek, and two of Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing, and Glen Perkins. That's eight relievers in addition Condrey, meaning two of those guys won't be starting the season in Minnesota.

--Orlando Cabrera signed with the Reds, thankfully officially ending any possibility that he'll be back in Minnesota.

Plays of the Week

At the suggestion of frequent commenter Barnacle, I have decided to start posting defensive plays of the week to go with the Hot & Cold feature. I can't post the videos directly because of Major League Baseball's strict copyright laws, but I will put up pictures and link to the videos.

Usually I'll include it in the same post as Hot & Cold, but since it's the inaugural edition, I figured I'd let it stand alone.

#3- Delmon Young makes the catch in foul ground and completes the double play by nailing Alberto Callaspo at home plate. Unfortunately, even with that play, the Twins were already down 9-1 in the 4th inning.

#2- Orlando Cabrera robs Billy Butler of a base-hit, sliding to his right and getting up quickly to make a strong throw to first base. He would do it again the next day in almost the exact same fashion, but it would be too boring to have both of them on this list.

#1- Matt Guerrier attempts to start a double play, but throws low and Cabrera can't handle it. As the ball bounces away, Josh Anderson takes off for third, but Nick Punto is alert and chases the ball down and fires it to Joe Crede just in time to get Anderson out.


Oddball play of the week: Justin Morneau strikes out and makes it all the way back to the dugout before the umpires confer and allow him to continue hitting. After looking at the ball, they determine that he did tip it (inconclusive on the replay) and that it hit the ground before Kelly Shoppach caught it (also inconclusive). With the Indians already trailing 9-0, Eric Wedge of course gets tossed and really gets his money's worth.

Cabrera Reactions

Scroll down to read my analysis of the trade.


Dave Allen, Fangraphs: "I like the deal. The Twins are exactly the type of team, in tight contention for a playoff spot, who should be dealing. Thus even half a win is quite valuable to them."

LaVelle E. Neal III, Star Tribune: "Anyway, is this the right deal? Freddy Sanchez was a better fit. Marco Scutaro would be a better fit. And I’m worried that Cabrera is going to bat second in the lineup when he should be seventh. And it’s taken one hot month for him to get his numbers past Brendan Harris. But he’s been in the playoffs and might be energized to be in a postseason race. We’ll see…"

Seth Stohs, SethSpeaks.net: "Don't fool yourselves, the cost for Cabrera was high. I expect Ladendorf would have been in my Top 15, maybe Top 10, Twins prospects at the end of the year... This trade was made to keep the players happy. Cabrera is not much of an improvement over Brendan Harris offensively at SS, and his defense this year has not been good either."

Jesse, Twinkie Town: "My initial take on getting O-Cab is quite simple: it's going to be hard for him to be much worse than what we've already had playing in the middle infield. Do I think it'll be a shame to lose plate appearances for Brendan Harris? Yes. Is he the best option on the market? No. But that's the only negative spin on this deal."

Ubelmann, Stick & Ball Guy: "I'm pretty ambivalent about this. I don't think that really helps us, but maybe it'll bolster morale. (After all, without a move today, Joe Mauer was going to quit baseball and play quarterback for the Packers.)"

Josh Johnson, Josh's Thoughts: "On first thought, I think it's a fair trade. While Ladendorf is a promising young prospect, he's not a "Top Prospect" and this should please the players."

Rob Neyer, ESPN.com: "From the Twins' perspective, my only concern would be Cabrera's defensive numbers, which have been pretty lousy this season. Perhaps one can assume that's something of a fluke, as he's been quite good in the last two seasons. Good move for both clubs, though of course we won't know for a couple of months how the Twins really fared."

Keith Law, ESPN.com: "Orlando Cabrera gives Twins a huge upgrade at shortstop."

Twins get Orlando Cabrera

As was rumored very frequently over the past week, the Twins have finally finished a trade for Oakland Athletics' shortstop Orlando Cabrera. This certainly didn't come out of nowhere, meaning most people have already decided whether or not this would be a good addition before it actually happened. What I said previously was: "I think it would be a mistake to trade for Orlando Cabrera, unless it were just a very marginal prospect, because he figures to be only a marginal upgrade."

I went on to say that he would be a little bit more of an upgrade if he took Nick Punto's spot in the lineup, rather than Brendan Harris'. I'm trying to talk myself into Cabrera, but I just don't think he's going to make that big of a difference. However, with Freddy Sanchez traded to the Giants (for much more than the Twins would have--or should have--given up), and Marco Scutaro seemingly not available unless Roy Halladay is traded, I'm happy the Twins made a move that was at least a slight improvement (as opposed to, say, grabbing David Eckstein).

Now, with Cabrera actually acquired, I'm going to delve much more into the statistics than I did in my last discussion of him. His offense is not so good, but that makes him many times better than Punto, and a tad better than Harris. I realize I'm sort of just ignoring Alexi Casilla in this discussion, but that's because I'm assuming he'll be sent to Rochester to make room for the new acquisition. If Ron Gardenhire puts him in the #2 spot, as I presume he will, that would be a mistake, since his OBP is only .318 (and .322 for his career). Of course, it won't be nearly the mistake that having Casilla or Tolbert there was.

Meanwhile, his normally good defense (5.0 UZR/150 career) has taken a hit this year. He has rated as a pretty sub-par shortstop in 2009 (-9.6 UZR/150), and he's already played almost 900 innings there this season, which makes it hard to blame on a small sample. In fact, according to UZR, Harris has been a significantly better shortstop this year. It's bold, certainly, but maybe it'd be a good idea to try Harris at short and Cabrera at second base. Cabrera played 3 innings at second in 2000, and otherwise hasn't played there since 1998.

I really have no credentials to be judging how hard it would be for Cabrera to adjust to the position, so I won't try. All I'll say is the Twins should give it a shot if they think its doable. Now, I know they never will, and since Gardy hates Harris at 2B, I think that means Punto will still be playing every day.


So, I've talked about Cabrera plenty, but what about the player the Twins traded to the Athletics: Tyler Ladendorf? Ladendorf is a 21-year-old shortstop who was the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2008, and was currently playing at Low-A Beloit. He was hitting pretty poorly (.233/.292/.267) but that was in just 65 plate appearances, so you can't make too much of it. He was promoted to Beloit earlier this year after mashing for 74 plate appearances in Elizabethton (.410/.500/.721). He was ranked #32 among Twins prospects by Aaron Gleeman, but middle infield is a very weak position throughout the organization and he was considered a good prospect by many people.

My overall reaction to the deal is a slight thumbs up. With everything that's been going on--from Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan's comments to groaning fans--I'm glad the Twins were able to put something together. Additionally, it's something that has the potential to help the team, but only if Gardenhire plays it the right way (he almost certainly won't). And they didn't give up anything great to obtain Cabrera. At this point, only time will tell if it was the right move.

Slowey and the trade deadline

With the trade deadline looming, the Twins took a big hit to their chances for a division title when it was announced that Kevin Slowey would undergo surgery on his wrist and thus miss the remainder of the season. Any thoughts of a deal involving one of the Twins other starting pitchers (Glen Perkins or Francisco Liriano were most talked about) are essentially moot at this point. Now that Anthony Swarzak is in the rotation full-time, the Twins' options for replacing a starter are a bunch of mop-up men: R.A. Dickey, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber, Bobby Keppel, and Brian Duensing.

The two areas the Twins really need to address, if they plan on making a serious run this year, are second base and the bullpen. You could argue the starting rotation also might need a little help now, but there's never very much quality starting pitching available at the trade deadline, meaning you always have to pay through the nose for it. I don't see the Twins doing any such thing, so I'm not going to consider that possibility.

There have been many names thrown about at both positions: Orlando Cabrera, Freddy Sanchez, and Marco Scutaro at second base, and Michael Wuertz, Brandon League, Scott Downs, John Grabow, Matt Capps, and others for the bullpen. I think it would be a mistake to trade for Orlando Cabrera, unless it were just a very marginal prospect, because he figures to be only a marginal upgrade. If he were to take Nick Punto's spot in the starting lineup, he'd be a little bit better of a trade target, but I, like many Minnesota fans, believe Gardenhire would play Cabrera in place of Brendan Harris. Harris is no superstar, but Cabrera isn't much better, if at all.

Freddy Sanchez and Marco Scutaro would both be much more significant upgrades. And if a deal for Sanchez similar to the one Doogie Wolfson speculates is possible, I would pull the trigger in a heartbeat. His idea is Alexi Casilla, Brian Duensing, and a "low-level pitcher who has a chance" (someone like Bobby Lanigan or Dan Osterbrock?). I really want to give Casilla a chance, but he's had way too many at this point and Sanchez is a no-brainer upgrade; Duensing is just an extra reliever for mop-up duty; and, while you never like to give away young pitching prospects, the chance that the one guy the Twins trade will be a difference-maker in the big leagues is small.

In return for that, they'd get a good defensive second baseman (career UZR/150 of 4.5) who is actually an above average hitter, as opposed to the league-worst hitters they've been trotting out there for the entire season thus far. Even if he plays like he did in 2008, the only year of the last four that he wasn't above average both offensively and defensively, he'd be a huge upgrade over Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla. He can also play third base if the situation arose, as he's shown a pretty slick glove in the past (17.9 UZR/150), though he hasn't played there since 2006.

And Sanchez would even be around in 2010 for the modest price of $8 million. If you think that's expensive, consider that the Twins were willing to pay Punto $4 million to be around in 2010, and Sanchez is, quite literally, worth about 20 of him (Sanchez has a WAR value of 2.2 versus Punto's WAR of 0.1).

I know this is based on one person's idea for what it would take to get Sanchez, but the point is that Sanchez would fill an absolutely gaping hole in the Twins organization and help them compete both this year and in their inaugural year at Target Field. Tomorrow I'll take a look at the relievers that are available on the trade market.

Market Active, Twins Not

So far, the Twins have yet to make any really significant moves this offseason, except for the dream I had last night where Johan Santana was traded to the Dodgers for about six players (I can't remember who). I woke up and quickly found out that nothing of the sort had actually occurred. However, many other teams have been making noteworthy news, some pertaining to imminently departing Twin Torii Hunter.

• Both the White Sox and Rangers have met with Hunter and begun, at least preliminarily, contract negotiations with him. The Chicago Sun-Times reported that Hunter could reach a deal with the White Sox by the end of the week, but he has since denied that claim. In my opinion, I would rather see Torii play for any other team except the Yankees.
• The White Sox did complete a trade with the Angels, though, sending pitcher Jon Garland to Los Angeles for Gold Glove shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Let's hope the Twins can start making some big moves, because the White Sox and Tigers are both very active already.
• The Yankees managed to re-sign another of their key players, this time inking Mariano Rivera to a 3-year, $45 million deal. After all the hoop-lah about the Yankee players not being happy with the managerial situation, most have already re-signed. As is often the case, money talked loudest.
• On the other side of the rivalry, Mike Lowell agreed to a 3-year, $37 million contract with the World Champion Boston Red Sox. After reportedly considering a 4-year deal worth about $50 million from the Phillies, he decided to stay in Boston. It seems like the Twins, even if they had shown interest, didn't have a realistic shot of signing Lowell.
• Former Twin Luis Castillo signed a 4-year deal for $25 million with the Mets. Obviously, the Twins weren't going to offer him a contract in that vicinity so they almost certainly would have lost him at the end of the year anyways.
• Two all-time great pitchers who spent most of their careers with the Braves also agreed to deals recently. Tom Glavine will return to Atlanta for $8 million next season. The contract seems based mostly on reputation, and perhaps on the paltry free agent market, because Glavine is not worth that much at this point. Greg Maddux will make $10 million in 2008 after re-signing with the Padres.