Every year, Baseball Bloggers Alliance founder Dan Shoptaw sends out a few questions to each team's chapter regarding the outlook for that team. As you might have guessed, those question are much more bleak than they have been in a long time. You can read responses from all of the Twins blogs on March 13th, at which time I will provide the link.
1) What was your opinion of the team's off-season?
All in all, it was solid. Unfortunately, a solid off-season isn't likely to be good enough for a team that lost 99 games last season. They avoided bad contracts with Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer (and will get draft picks in their place), they made some nice pick-ups with Ryan Doumit, Joel Zumaya, and Jamey Carroll, and they struck a good deal with Josh Willingham, their biggest free agent signing in franchise history. But their bullpen is still riddled with holes, which could have been filled fairly easily with multiple quality relievers with the $4.5 million that instead went to Matt Capps. Their starting rotation is likely to again be one of the worst in the league, unless Liriano returns to form (more on that in a minute), as Jason Marquis is not an appreciable upgrade in that department. And their hitting still leaves something to be desired given the health of Justin Morneau, and, to a lesser extent, Denard Span and Joe Mauer.
2) Francisco Liriano seemed to be wildly inconsistent last season. Is there any reason to hope he'll be more dominant this season?
He was much closer to consistently bad than wildly inconsistent. Outside of a freak no-hitter (which was still quite the highlight in that depressing Twins season) and a great game in August against the Yankees, Liriano was plain bad. Then again, the year before he had some sabermetrically-inclined fans calling for his inclusion at the top of the Cy Young discussion. As such, he's probably the most polarizing Twins player in recent memory, perhaps with the exception of Nick Punto. As for the hope that he'll be much better this year, I think it's closer to hoping against hope that he will be, rather than any rational expectation for him to be. Like Jason Kubel's knee injury suffered in the AFL in 2004, Liriano's Tommy John surgery will more than likely have us wondering what could have been as he disappoints once again.
3) Justin Morneau hasn't played 100 games in the past two seasons. What are the expectations for him in 2012?
Not much. He had so many injuries last year that I can't even keep track of them all. Wrist surgery, neck surgery, post-concussion symptoms, the list goes on and on. And the fact that Minnesota is spinning it as good news that he is finally no longer experiencing concussion symptoms 18 months after his initial injury? Just depressing. Morneau was in the midst of a magical season before that fateful and seemingly innocuous feet-first slide into second base, and since then he's been a complete mess. I feel for the guy and hope so much that he can come back and be the player he was two years ago, but at this point if he either makes it through the whole season OR provides above average production for any significant portion of 2012, I'll be satisfied.
4) Is there a prospect that will make an impact on the team this season?
With Kyle Gibson going under the knife last year, I don't think there's one clear answer to this question. Chris Parmelee might be a popular choice but I don't see a roster spot for him to start the season, nor do I see him maintaining the success he had in his call-up at the end of last year. Joe Benson and Alex Wimmers might be options, but I don't think the Twins see either as being ready for extended time with the big league club this year. To me, that leaves Brian Dozier or my choice, Liam Hendriks. Dozier might have if the Twins hadn't signed Carroll, but now he figures to be behind Alexi Casilla, Carroll, and presumably Tsuyoshi Nishioka at the midle infield spots. Hendriks pitched decently in his cup of coffee at the end of 2011, and figures to be one of the top choices should anyone in the rotation go down with an injury. Or struggle, which, given the makeup of the Twins' rotation, is virtually guaranteed. He may not have a lot of upside but I think he's the prospect most likely to make an impact this year.
5) Where will the team finish in their division and what are you most excited about for 2012?
As a fan, despite everything I've written, I think they'll come out on top. The White Sox mortgaged for the future this off-season, the Tigers lost Victor Martinez and are playing a man at third base who could pass for an NFL offensive lineman, and the Indians just played over their heads last year. And do I even need to mention the Royals? As a realist, the Tigers have to be the favorite to win the division with Verlander, Cabrera, and now Prince Fielder. After that, it's a bit wide open, so I'll be a homer and pick the Twins a distant second--around .500--to the Tigers.
And I'm most excited about Joe Mauer. I am the biggest apologist and fan of him, even in Twins territory. When so many fans turned on him toward the end of last year, I remained one of his staunchest supporters. He's healthy now and he'll be back to form this year. He'll never repeat his 2009 season, but I see another batting title coming in 2012.
Showing posts with label offseason. Show all posts
Showing posts with label offseason. Show all posts
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
A Recap of the Twins' Offseason
The last time the Twins organization saw this many changes in one season was back in 2007, when perennial all-stars Torii Hunter and Johan Santana departed. In trying to avoid replicating a disastrous 99-loss season, Minnesota sacked Bill Smith and reinstated Terry Ryan as General Manager, who stepped down in that same 2007 season. The moves Ryan have made since then have mostly been positive, as he's helped situate the Twins to be better than they were in 2011--thought that wasn't all that difficult.
There are still many holes, however, and many of the problems that produced 99 losses last year are still present. While the Twins will probably be better, hopes are not nearly as high as they've been in years past. Let's take a look at each of Terry Ryan's moves one-by-one and evaluate their effect on the prospects of the 2011 Minnesota Twins.
Matt Capps- The gift that keeps on taking. In mid-2010, Bill Smith traded top catching prospect Wilson Ramos for the overrated Matt Capps. In the 2010 off-season, Smith retained Capps for the next season for more than $7 million, a result of Smith's complete over-valuation of the save statistic. In December of 2011, Terry Ryan decided to re-sign Capps for $4.75 million. While that represents a significantly smaller sum than his previous salary, it was still far too much, especially considering the number of quality relievers available as free agents. Aaron Gleeman depressingly captures exactly what the Twins could have done to improve their bullpen with that $4.75 million they spent on Capps. Oh, and they also would have received an extra draft pick if Capps had signed with another team. Ouch.
Jamey Carroll- This was meant as a move to fill the chasm that was created at shortstop last season when Tsuyoshi Nishioka turned out to be woefully under-prepared for the Major Leagues. Of course he's still around and could be better this year, but nobody's hopes are very high. Carroll will presumably begin the year as the starting shortstop, a role that he adequately fits. He's 37 years old so his good defensive ratings from last year are no bet to continue, though, and his slap-hitting tendencies won't make up for his defense if it's below average. Considering the black hole the Twins have often been sporting at shortstop over the last decade, however, this move is solid. 2 years at more than $7 million total may be a little high, but all around this was a decent acquisition.
Ryan Doumit- I don't think there's anything to complain about with this signing. For the low price of $3 million, the Twins have added a switch-hitting catcher who can also play the outfield. With Denard Span and new acquisition Josh Willingham locked into outfield spots, Doumit will either play DH or take the third outfield position from Ben Revere. In addition, he provides a very capable option at catcher if Joe Mauer gets injured or just to fill in on his regular days of rest. Doumit is no superstar but he's a great fit for the Twins at a great price.
Josh Willingham- The biggest move of the Twins off-season was essentially choosing to sign Willingham over re-signing Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer's popularity with Minnesota fans and the media is well-known, but the fact of the matter is that this was the correct move to make. Cuddyer signed with the Rockies for $30 million over 3 years, while the Twins got Willingham for $21 million over the same period. In addition to saving $9 million, Minnesota will also get two extra draft picks because another team signed Cuddyer. And, despite that, they really didn't lost much, if anything, in terms of on-field production. Willingham is a poor-fielding right-handed power bat, just like Cuddyer, except that he gets on base a little more while hitting for a slightly lower average. It's sad to see Cuddyer go, but Ryan did well in making this tough decision.
Joel Zumaya- This was a low-risk, high-reward signing that will probably give the Twins little to no value. Zumaya hasn't pitched since mid-2010, when his elbow shattered while pitching for the Tigers against Minnesota. The likelihood that Zumaya will be healthy and effective at all in 2012 is low, and the likelihood that he will be both of those for anything resembling an entire season is essentially zero. Nonetheless, for $800,000 it was worth the risk. In the past, when healthy, Zumaya has been a top-flight reliever, something the Twins sorely need with the departure of Joe Nathan.
There are still many holes, however, and many of the problems that produced 99 losses last year are still present. While the Twins will probably be better, hopes are not nearly as high as they've been in years past. Let's take a look at each of Terry Ryan's moves one-by-one and evaluate their effect on the prospects of the 2011 Minnesota Twins.
Matt Capps- The gift that keeps on taking. In mid-2010, Bill Smith traded top catching prospect Wilson Ramos for the overrated Matt Capps. In the 2010 off-season, Smith retained Capps for the next season for more than $7 million, a result of Smith's complete over-valuation of the save statistic. In December of 2011, Terry Ryan decided to re-sign Capps for $4.75 million. While that represents a significantly smaller sum than his previous salary, it was still far too much, especially considering the number of quality relievers available as free agents. Aaron Gleeman depressingly captures exactly what the Twins could have done to improve their bullpen with that $4.75 million they spent on Capps. Oh, and they also would have received an extra draft pick if Capps had signed with another team. Ouch.
Jamey Carroll- This was meant as a move to fill the chasm that was created at shortstop last season when Tsuyoshi Nishioka turned out to be woefully under-prepared for the Major Leagues. Of course he's still around and could be better this year, but nobody's hopes are very high. Carroll will presumably begin the year as the starting shortstop, a role that he adequately fits. He's 37 years old so his good defensive ratings from last year are no bet to continue, though, and his slap-hitting tendencies won't make up for his defense if it's below average. Considering the black hole the Twins have often been sporting at shortstop over the last decade, however, this move is solid. 2 years at more than $7 million total may be a little high, but all around this was a decent acquisition.
Ryan Doumit- I don't think there's anything to complain about with this signing. For the low price of $3 million, the Twins have added a switch-hitting catcher who can also play the outfield. With Denard Span and new acquisition Josh Willingham locked into outfield spots, Doumit will either play DH or take the third outfield position from Ben Revere. In addition, he provides a very capable option at catcher if Joe Mauer gets injured or just to fill in on his regular days of rest. Doumit is no superstar but he's a great fit for the Twins at a great price.
Josh Willingham- The biggest move of the Twins off-season was essentially choosing to sign Willingham over re-signing Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer's popularity with Minnesota fans and the media is well-known, but the fact of the matter is that this was the correct move to make. Cuddyer signed with the Rockies for $30 million over 3 years, while the Twins got Willingham for $21 million over the same period. In addition to saving $9 million, Minnesota will also get two extra draft picks because another team signed Cuddyer. And, despite that, they really didn't lost much, if anything, in terms of on-field production. Willingham is a poor-fielding right-handed power bat, just like Cuddyer, except that he gets on base a little more while hitting for a slightly lower average. It's sad to see Cuddyer go, but Ryan did well in making this tough decision.
Joel Zumaya- This was a low-risk, high-reward signing that will probably give the Twins little to no value. Zumaya hasn't pitched since mid-2010, when his elbow shattered while pitching for the Tigers against Minnesota. The likelihood that Zumaya will be healthy and effective at all in 2012 is low, and the likelihood that he will be both of those for anything resembling an entire season is essentially zero. Nonetheless, for $800,000 it was worth the risk. In the past, when healthy, Zumaya has been a top-flight reliever, something the Twins sorely need with the departure of Joe Nathan.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Positional Comparisons
There's no doubt it was a tumultuous offseason for Minnesota. Franchise players came and went, and when the dust settled what we had was a team that looked drastically different than the one the Twins had in 2007. But is it better or worse? I thought I'd take a look at the Twins [projected] roster and compare it to last year. Where did the Twins improve? And where did they lose out?
Catcher:
2007- Joe Mauer
2008- Joe Mauer
Well, there was no change here. Hopefully Mauer can bounce back from a relatively disappointing year and produce closer to his 2006 campaign, so I anticipate this position being a little better than last year.
First Base:
2007- Justin Morneau
2008- Justin Morneau
Again, the same player, but now with a new contract. Will Morneau, like Mauer, be able to return to his 2006 form? Will his new financial security have any effect on his play? Either way, I definitely think that he should improve over last year.
Second Base:
2007- Luis Castillo/Nick Punto/Alexi Casilla
2008- Brendan Harris
Harris is undoubtedly better offensively than the Twins' second basemen last year. Even with modest numbers he'll dwarf Punto's and Casilla's stats from 2007; as long as he's not the worst hitter in the league, this position will be better off. That being said, his defense is more questionable, but I think the significant offensive improvement will prove to be more important.
Third Base:
2007- Nick Punto/Luis Rodriguez/Brian Buscher
2008-Mike Lamb
A similar situation to second base, in which Lamb will in all likelihood be an improvement offensively, but potentially a liability defensively. Compared to the third basemen as a whole, Lamb will also be better than what the Twins had in 2008. It would be a little closer if we considered him versus just Buscher, rather than against Nick Putrid. Whoops, I meant Punto.
Shortstop:
2007- Jason Bartlett
2008- Adam Everett
After the blockbuster trade with the Rays, the Twins were left with a void at shortshop, which they shortly filled by signing ex-Astro Adam Everett. A defensive specialist, he is well below average offensively. That being said, his career OPS of .656 is comparable to the production the Twins got last year (Bartlett's stats were dragged down by Casilla's and Punto's time at shortstop). Hopefully, Everett hits around his career averages, which would allow us to overlook his offense for his defense.
Left Field:
2007- Jason Tyner/Jason Kubel/Rondell White
2008- Delmon Young
The biggest part of the aforementioned trade will take over left field duties for the Twins. This should no doubt be an improvement over last year. Even if Young repeats his performance from last year, he would be better than the combination that was trotted out there last year. White was abysmal again, Tyner was predictably underwhelming, and Kubel didn't play there enough to make the left field stats look good. Hopefully, however, Young will hit markedly better than last year.
Center Field:
2007- Torii Hunter
2008- Carlos Gomez/Jason Pridie/Denard Span??
This is the first position where there isn't a clear-cut frontrunner for the starting job in 2008. New acquisitions Gomez and Pridie, along with former first-round pick Denard Span, all have a chance to start on opening day. I don't know how likely Span is to start, as his minor league record doesn't indicate he's ready, but it seems like Gardenhire is high on him. No matter who it is, we can expect a significant downgrade from 2007. Even though there was basically a consensus that Hunter couldn't be re-signed, there should also be a consensus that none of these guys will come close to matching his production.
Right Field:
2007- Michael Cuddyer
2008- Michael Cuddyer
Only the third of the eight positions that will have the same starter as 2008. Cuddyer had a down year after a great 2006, and was given a new multi-year contract this off-season. Along with Mauer, Morneau, Young, and Kubel, he should combine to make a somewhat formidable middle of the lineup that will help make up for the likes of Adam Everett and probably Nick Punto, who Gardenhire will surely find a way to fit in the lineup.
Designated Hitter:
2007- Jason Tyner/Rondell White/Jason Kubel/myriad of others
2008- Jason Kubel
It's about time Jason Kubel gets a regular starting position, and there doesn't seem to be anyone in the way of him this time. Gardenhire has been known to do stranger things that start Craig Monroe at DH, though (for instance, starting Jason Tyner at DH). Kubel should be much better than what was used as an excuse for a DH last year, and I think he will make significant strides toward becoming a very good player.
Well, that wraps up my positional outlook for 2008. More season preview things to come over the next week and a half, including a divisional preview, statistical predictions (which will admittedly be essentially arbitrary guesses, but will certainly be interesting to look back on at the end of the year), and a comparison between the 2007 and 2008 pitchers.
Catcher:
2007- Joe Mauer
2008- Joe Mauer
Well, there was no change here. Hopefully Mauer can bounce back from a relatively disappointing year and produce closer to his 2006 campaign, so I anticipate this position being a little better than last year.
First Base:
2007- Justin Morneau
2008- Justin Morneau
Again, the same player, but now with a new contract. Will Morneau, like Mauer, be able to return to his 2006 form? Will his new financial security have any effect on his play? Either way, I definitely think that he should improve over last year.
Second Base:
2007- Luis Castillo/Nick Punto/Alexi Casilla
2008- Brendan Harris
Harris is undoubtedly better offensively than the Twins' second basemen last year. Even with modest numbers he'll dwarf Punto's and Casilla's stats from 2007; as long as he's not the worst hitter in the league, this position will be better off. That being said, his defense is more questionable, but I think the significant offensive improvement will prove to be more important.
Third Base:
2007- Nick Punto/Luis Rodriguez/Brian Buscher
2008-Mike Lamb
A similar situation to second base, in which Lamb will in all likelihood be an improvement offensively, but potentially a liability defensively. Compared to the third basemen as a whole, Lamb will also be better than what the Twins had in 2008. It would be a little closer if we considered him versus just Buscher, rather than against Nick Putrid. Whoops, I meant Punto.
Shortstop:
2007- Jason Bartlett
2008- Adam Everett
After the blockbuster trade with the Rays, the Twins were left with a void at shortshop, which they shortly filled by signing ex-Astro Adam Everett. A defensive specialist, he is well below average offensively. That being said, his career OPS of .656 is comparable to the production the Twins got last year (Bartlett's stats were dragged down by Casilla's and Punto's time at shortstop). Hopefully, Everett hits around his career averages, which would allow us to overlook his offense for his defense.
Left Field:
2007- Jason Tyner/Jason Kubel/Rondell White
2008- Delmon Young
The biggest part of the aforementioned trade will take over left field duties for the Twins. This should no doubt be an improvement over last year. Even if Young repeats his performance from last year, he would be better than the combination that was trotted out there last year. White was abysmal again, Tyner was predictably underwhelming, and Kubel didn't play there enough to make the left field stats look good. Hopefully, however, Young will hit markedly better than last year.
Center Field:
2007- Torii Hunter
2008- Carlos Gomez/Jason Pridie/Denard Span??
This is the first position where there isn't a clear-cut frontrunner for the starting job in 2008. New acquisitions Gomez and Pridie, along with former first-round pick Denard Span, all have a chance to start on opening day. I don't know how likely Span is to start, as his minor league record doesn't indicate he's ready, but it seems like Gardenhire is high on him. No matter who it is, we can expect a significant downgrade from 2007. Even though there was basically a consensus that Hunter couldn't be re-signed, there should also be a consensus that none of these guys will come close to matching his production.
Right Field:
2007- Michael Cuddyer
2008- Michael Cuddyer
Only the third of the eight positions that will have the same starter as 2008. Cuddyer had a down year after a great 2006, and was given a new multi-year contract this off-season. Along with Mauer, Morneau, Young, and Kubel, he should combine to make a somewhat formidable middle of the lineup that will help make up for the likes of Adam Everett and probably Nick Punto, who Gardenhire will surely find a way to fit in the lineup.
Designated Hitter:
2007- Jason Tyner/Rondell White/Jason Kubel/myriad of others
2008- Jason Kubel
It's about time Jason Kubel gets a regular starting position, and there doesn't seem to be anyone in the way of him this time. Gardenhire has been known to do stranger things that start Craig Monroe at DH, though (for instance, starting Jason Tyner at DH). Kubel should be much better than what was used as an excuse for a DH last year, and I think he will make significant strides toward becoming a very good player.
Well, that wraps up my positional outlook for 2008. More season preview things to come over the next week and a half, including a divisional preview, statistical predictions (which will admittedly be essentially arbitrary guesses, but will certainly be interesting to look back on at the end of the year), and a comparison between the 2007 and 2008 pitchers.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Tender Deadline Passed, Mitchell Report Due
Just a couple quick notes, as I really need to study for my finals:
-Last night was the deadline to tender contracts to unsigned players. As mentioned before, the Twins non-tendered Jason Tyner, while tendering contracts to their other 5 arbitration-eligible players: Justin Morneau, Juan Rincon, Jason Kubel, Matt Guerrier, and Michael Cuddyer. Some people thought that Rincon might be let go, but I'm not surprised they held onto him.
-Here's a complete list of non-tenders. The three guys I think the Twins should at least consider are 3B Morgan Ensberg, 3B Dallas McPherson, and SP Mark Prior. Prior will probably end up getting a good deal of money somewhere, but if his price isn't too high it would be an interesting signing. He missed all of 2007 and won't be ready to pitch until the middle of the season. McPherson was a former top prospect (40 homers in the minors one year) who has struggled in his small amount of injury-riddled playing time in the bigs. He missed all of 2007 as well, but is still only 27 and has only had 384 plate appearances in the majors. He should come pretty cheaply, and if able to turn his career around, would still be under the Twins' control for a couple of years. Ensberg is the least attractive of the three, as he is 32 years old and struggled mightily last year, but I see potential for a Mike Lowell-like turnaround. Or he could just be another Tony Batista.
-Former Senator George Mitchell is supposed to announce the findings of his investigation on steroids today at 2 PM. I know that the names in this report are just going to be random ones (meaning that it's just going to be a few guys out of the whole of users who are accused, and very possibly even some innocent guys), but I just hope no Twins are named so that I don't have to have second thoughts about rooting for them. The only guy that I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see named is Rincon, as a result of his suspension a couple years ago.
-Last night was the deadline to tender contracts to unsigned players. As mentioned before, the Twins non-tendered Jason Tyner, while tendering contracts to their other 5 arbitration-eligible players: Justin Morneau, Juan Rincon, Jason Kubel, Matt Guerrier, and Michael Cuddyer. Some people thought that Rincon might be let go, but I'm not surprised they held onto him.
-Here's a complete list of non-tenders. The three guys I think the Twins should at least consider are 3B Morgan Ensberg, 3B Dallas McPherson, and SP Mark Prior. Prior will probably end up getting a good deal of money somewhere, but if his price isn't too high it would be an interesting signing. He missed all of 2007 and won't be ready to pitch until the middle of the season. McPherson was a former top prospect (40 homers in the minors one year) who has struggled in his small amount of injury-riddled playing time in the bigs. He missed all of 2007 as well, but is still only 27 and has only had 384 plate appearances in the majors. He should come pretty cheaply, and if able to turn his career around, would still be under the Twins' control for a couple of years. Ensberg is the least attractive of the three, as he is 32 years old and struggled mightily last year, but I see potential for a Mike Lowell-like turnaround. Or he could just be another Tony Batista.
-Former Senator George Mitchell is supposed to announce the findings of his investigation on steroids today at 2 PM. I know that the names in this report are just going to be random ones (meaning that it's just going to be a few guys out of the whole of users who are accused, and very possibly even some innocent guys), but I just hope no Twins are named so that I don't have to have second thoughts about rooting for them. The only guy that I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see named is Rincon, as a result of his suspension a couple years ago.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Get Ned Colletti on the Phone
Please, Bill Smith, talk to the Dodgers. If they are willing to pay Johan, then I see a great trade developing there. The Dodgers just signed Andruw Jones to a 2 year, $36 million deal, which gives them four outfielders: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones. The Dodgers were shopping Kemp before they got Jones, so now he is most certainly available. Apparently, they don't like his attitude, but for a guy who has put up the numbers he has, I don't care. Of course, I'm assuming he can play at least an adequate centerfield. I really have no idea how good his defense is, but I know he's played some center in the majors, so it's certainly a possibility. The Dodgers also have Andy LaRoche, a 3rd base prospect with great power potential. For some reason, the Dodgers are nonetheless looking for a 3rd basemen (I heard maybe because of back problems????), so he seems to be available as well. There we go: 2 huge holes, plugged by 2 ML-ready guys with a lot of POWER potential, something the Twins have been missing for far too long. I'm drooling over this deal already...
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Trade Rumors
The winter meetings start in less than a week, and there are already plenty of rumors surrounding the Twins and moves that they might make. I don't know about anyone else, but I find all this talk and discussion very exciting, even if they are only "internet rumors." In any case, talks of deals involving Johan Santana and anybody and young pitching to the Devil Rays seem to have the plenty of legitimacy, while there are other deals like Justin Morneau to the Angels that seem totally ridiculous. The removal of two players (pitchers Errol Simonitsch and Ricky Barrett) make it even more apparent that something is going to happen soon. By the way, Simonitsch and Barrett both cleared waivers and are safely on the Rochester roster. I know you were worried.
- To start, there has been plenty of discussions of Santana trades, but now it seems that the Twins have begun preliminary talks with teams, at least with the New York Yankees for sure. As much as I hate to say it, the Yankees would be the most logical landing place for Santana, with their basically unlimited payroll, collection of top prospects, and need for pitching. (As a side note, how amazing is it that the Yankees have spent about $400 million already this offseason, and they haven't even added any players? All they've done is resign their own players.) All the other supposedly interested teams that could possibly pay Santana have foreseeable problems in getting a deal done. The Angels and Dodgers have bigger needs for hitters than pitchers, especially with the Angels trading Orlando Cabrera last week. The Red Sox clearly do not want to part with Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury, and I don't think a deal centered around Jon Lester is enough. Also, more importantly, the Red Sox seem likely to stick to their word, as they did when they held strong and would not offer Mike Lowell a 4 year deal even after Philadelphia made such an offer. As is well known, the Yankees adamantly declared they would not negotiate with Alex Rodriguez after he opted out of his contract, and then they proceeded to sign him to a contract potentially worth over $300 million just a couple weeks later. Now, to get to the potential offers the Yankees could make. The Yankees have been saying all along that Joba Chamberlain is untouchable and now Robinson Cano appears to be in that same category, though the Yankees' adamant statements can be reversed quite quickly it seems. I certainly understand why everyone is so high on Joba, but I see Phil Hughes as at least an equal piece in a trade, and possibly better, simply because he has proven his stuff over a couple years in the minors instead of just one. If the Yankees are not going to offer Chamberlain, then Hughes is a great building block for the trade. I would want to see any trade with the Yankees centered around Hughes or Chamberlain, as Cano will be hitting arbitration this year, and I would rather see the Twins get a cheaper, younger player as the base of the trade. If the Twins could get Hughes/Chamberlain and Cano, then that would be a great deal, but I'm not too sure that that will happen. I know the Twins need offense way more than pitching, but they can trade some young pitching for young hitters, as a deal like this would give them an even bigger surplus of young pitching. I still think a deal to the Dodgers would work best for the Twins, but at this point I'm not sure how involved they'll get in the Santana trade talks.
- Joe Christensen, in an attempt to lessen the hopes of Twins fans like me, wrote up what he felt to be a more realistic trade market for Santana. Obviously, no one outside the teams making the offers knows exactly what the Twins could get for Johan, but if these are the deals that are out there, I would rather keep Santana and let him walk after 2008 if he can't be re-signed. Some people might say this would be the same as the Torii Hunter fiasco. Personally, I did not think the Twins should have traded Hunter, but even for people who did, this is totally different. In this case, if the Twins lost Santana for draft picks, it wouldn't be for a lack of trying; the Twins have been proactive in looking to either deal or re-sign him, and that is the key. With Torii, the Twins waited until the summer to make an offer for an extension, and seemingly never discussed trading him. In any case, I would rather have 1 year of Santana than get what Christensen suggests the Twins would get.
- More indications of talks with the Rays came out today, this time involving Boof Bonser moving to Tampa. I think that a trade of Boof for Rocco Baldelli would be a good deal, although I would feel bad losing a guy with such a great name. Then again, Rocco isn't so bad in itself. If the Twins don't trade Santana, which at this point would surprise me, or if they get another great young pitcher in return (like Hughes), then some of the Twins better young pitchers (like Matt Garza or Kevin Slowey) could possibly be used to get a player like BJ Upton.
- The rumors of a Morneau-to-the-Angels deal are ridiculous. The Twins should NOT trade him, not for anything. He is their only established power threat, and if they lose Hunter, Santana, and Morneau in the offseason, they might as well change the team name to the Minnesota Sideburns. Not to mention the proposed return on the deal, Casey Kotchman and Ervin Santana, is not even close to fair compensation. (As I typed this, I went to look for the link where I found this, but the thread was deleted. So maybe it was totally made up.)
- And, if you've had enough of all this trade talk, check out the latest rumor, this one started by Bob Sansevere over at the Pioneer Press. Just think: this guy gets paid to write about the Twins, while I'm sitting here at 2:2o AM with an 8:50 class in the morning tomorrow, none of my homework started yet, and getting nothing for it.
Finally, was anyone else hoping for a scoreless tie in the Dolphins-Steelers game, or at the very least a 2-0 overtime victory for one of the teams? I guess now the only amazing thing I can hope for is an 0-14 Dolphins team beating a 14-0 Patriots team in Week 16.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Angels Sign Hunter, 40-man Roster Finalized
Note: A list of recent MLB transactions has been added to the right-hand side of the page. Unless we have specific thoughts on a transaction, it won't be mentioned in the posts.
In the wee hours of Thanksgiving morning, Torii Hunter agreed to a five-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. At first, reports indicated that the deal was worth at least 80 million dollars, and now the AP is reporting it to be a 90 million dollar contract. That contract is worth 20 million more than that of another Angels outfielder, Vlad Guerrero, over the same number of years. That shows how much contracts have inflated in just the last 4 years since Vlad signed his deal. I, along with many other Twins fans, have been resigned to the fact that Torii was leaving for a while now. However, the fact that the Angels signed him came as a shock to me. I am glad Hunter did not go to the Yankees (though they did not seem interested anyways) or the White Sox, but other than that his new team was not of much importance to me. The one interesting twist with him going to the Angels: Opening Day 2008 is at the Dome against-- you guessed it-- the Angels.
As for the Angels' outfield situation, I have to believe that they have another deal in the works. With Gary Matthews Jr., Vladimir Guerrero, and Garret Anderson already under contract for next year, the outfield is very crowded, and that's without even mentioning arbitration-eligible Juan Rivera and on-base machine Reggie Willits. Guerrero and Anderson are both signed through next season with a club option for 2009, while Matthews is signed through 2011. There is no way the Angels would trade Guerrero, and Anderson is probably too expensive and injury-prone to make a good trading piece. That leaves Matthews, who would most likely waive his no-trade clause if he found out he wouldn't be playing regularly, Willits, and Rivera. Matthews is not worth the money being given him, but I would be interested in seeing if the Twins could trade for Willits if he becomes available.
Now, to move on to a different issue, 40-man roster changes had to be finalized on Tuesday. I think the main aspect of this deadline is that any players in the minor league system must be added to the 40-man or, depending on their eligibility, they can be taken in the Rule V draft. A player is eligible for the Rule V draft 4 years after signing if they signed when they were over 18, and 5 years after signing if they did so when they were 18 or younger. I posted my suggestions for who should be added back in October. My thoughts turned out to be quite different from what actually happened. The Twins added RP Bobby Korecky, 3B Matt Macri, and 2B Matt Tolbert. Adding Tolbert and Macri was a no-brainer for the Twins (I'm not quite sure how I totally missed Macri in my post), but I'm a bit surprised at the addition of Korecky. He had a good year at Rochester in 2007, but he turned 28 in September and the Twins have bigger needs than the bullpen. I don't think it was a bad idea to add Korecky to the roster, but I still think 1B Brock Peterson and OF Garrett Guzman should have been added over him. Those two guys offer some power potential in a minor-league system that is seriously lacking in this area. However, the real problem here is not Korecky; it's the guys who weren't taken off the roster. I'm not going to go into great detail because I did that back in October, but guys like Chris Basak and Darnell McDonald have no place on the roster.
In the wee hours of Thanksgiving morning, Torii Hunter agreed to a five-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. At first, reports indicated that the deal was worth at least 80 million dollars, and now the AP is reporting it to be a 90 million dollar contract. That contract is worth 20 million more than that of another Angels outfielder, Vlad Guerrero, over the same number of years. That shows how much contracts have inflated in just the last 4 years since Vlad signed his deal. I, along with many other Twins fans, have been resigned to the fact that Torii was leaving for a while now. However, the fact that the Angels signed him came as a shock to me. I am glad Hunter did not go to the Yankees (though they did not seem interested anyways) or the White Sox, but other than that his new team was not of much importance to me. The one interesting twist with him going to the Angels: Opening Day 2008 is at the Dome against-- you guessed it-- the Angels.
As for the Angels' outfield situation, I have to believe that they have another deal in the works. With Gary Matthews Jr., Vladimir Guerrero, and Garret Anderson already under contract for next year, the outfield is very crowded, and that's without even mentioning arbitration-eligible Juan Rivera and on-base machine Reggie Willits. Guerrero and Anderson are both signed through next season with a club option for 2009, while Matthews is signed through 2011. There is no way the Angels would trade Guerrero, and Anderson is probably too expensive and injury-prone to make a good trading piece. That leaves Matthews, who would most likely waive his no-trade clause if he found out he wouldn't be playing regularly, Willits, and Rivera. Matthews is not worth the money being given him, but I would be interested in seeing if the Twins could trade for Willits if he becomes available.
Now, to move on to a different issue, 40-man roster changes had to be finalized on Tuesday. I think the main aspect of this deadline is that any players in the minor league system must be added to the 40-man or, depending on their eligibility, they can be taken in the Rule V draft. A player is eligible for the Rule V draft 4 years after signing if they signed when they were over 18, and 5 years after signing if they did so when they were 18 or younger. I posted my suggestions for who should be added back in October. My thoughts turned out to be quite different from what actually happened. The Twins added RP Bobby Korecky, 3B Matt Macri, and 2B Matt Tolbert. Adding Tolbert and Macri was a no-brainer for the Twins (I'm not quite sure how I totally missed Macri in my post), but I'm a bit surprised at the addition of Korecky. He had a good year at Rochester in 2007, but he turned 28 in September and the Twins have bigger needs than the bullpen. I don't think it was a bad idea to add Korecky to the roster, but I still think 1B Brock Peterson and OF Garrett Guzman should have been added over him. Those two guys offer some power potential in a minor-league system that is seriously lacking in this area. However, the real problem here is not Korecky; it's the guys who weren't taken off the roster. I'm not going to go into great detail because I did that back in October, but guys like Chris Basak and Darnell McDonald have no place on the roster.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Update: Twins Are Still The Twins
On the first day of free agency, the Twins have acquired OF Craig Monroe from the Cubs for a player to be named later. After all the speculation about making some big trades involving Johan Santana, Joe Nathan, or some young pitchers, the Twins first attempt to improve the offense is largely reminiscent of the veteran acquisitions they have made in the last couple years. Monroe is a career .256/.303/.446 hitter as mainly a corner outfielder, but hit a putrid .219/.268/.370 in 392 at bats in 2007. I'm not particularly fond of Monroe, but, as long as the Twins have not already reserved a starting spot for him in 2007, this trade is an acceptable start to the Twins' offseason plans. Monroe is a low-average hitter with no on-base skills and plus-power. He has played a limited amount of centerfield in the majors, but has well below-average range there and would not be a good replacement for Torii Hunter. As an option off the bench, Monroe is a great acquisition; as a starting outfielder, Monroe is another example of the typical Twins acquisition over the last couple years that has not worked out. As for his contract, Monroe is entering his third year of arbitration eligibility, after making $4.775M in '07 and $2.8M in '06. After his poor performance in 2007, I would expect his salary to decrease, but he will still certainly get at least a couple million dollars in 2008.
In an interesting twist, the Twins acquired the former Tiger from the Cubs one day after the Tigers acquired former Twins' OF Jacque Jones from the Cubs. In other news, 3B Ryan Braun of the Brewers and 2B Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox were named the NL and AL rookies of the year, respectively, and the Cy Young Award winners are expected to be announced shortly.
UPDATE (6:56 PM 11/14): Apparently, I did not understand this trade and its finances completely when I posted yesterday. To start, if Monroe goes to arbitration, he would get a raise in salary, presumably somewhere between 5 and 6 million dollars. However, the Twins do not have to offer him arbitration, as they could either non-tender (basically, release) him by 12/1 or sign him to a contract before arbitration. Another catch, though, is that he can only accept a 20% pay cut from the previous season if he's not cut, so the lowest his salary could be next year is $3.82M. Another option is that the Twins could non-tender Monroe and then try to sign him as a free agent, in which case they could sign to whatever amount they wanted, but they would have to compete with any other teams that might have interest (and I'm not sure how the players' union would feel about a move like that). A final note is that, as a provision of the trade, the Twins do not have to give up anyone if they end up cutting Monroe. With these thoughts in mind, I would still feel disappointed if the Twins are planning to start him next year. As a bat for the bench, I think it is a great acquisition, and I'm not worried about them overpaying for him for 1 year, since I think most of the acquisitions this offseason should be young, pre-arbitration hitters (my offseason plan here).
In an interesting twist, the Twins acquired the former Tiger from the Cubs one day after the Tigers acquired former Twins' OF Jacque Jones from the Cubs. In other news, 3B Ryan Braun of the Brewers and 2B Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox were named the NL and AL rookies of the year, respectively, and the Cy Young Award winners are expected to be announced shortly.
UPDATE (6:56 PM 11/14): Apparently, I did not understand this trade and its finances completely when I posted yesterday. To start, if Monroe goes to arbitration, he would get a raise in salary, presumably somewhere between 5 and 6 million dollars. However, the Twins do not have to offer him arbitration, as they could either non-tender (basically, release) him by 12/1 or sign him to a contract before arbitration. Another catch, though, is that he can only accept a 20% pay cut from the previous season if he's not cut, so the lowest his salary could be next year is $3.82M. Another option is that the Twins could non-tender Monroe and then try to sign him as a free agent, in which case they could sign to whatever amount they wanted, but they would have to compete with any other teams that might have interest (and I'm not sure how the players' union would feel about a move like that). A final note is that, as a provision of the trade, the Twins do not have to give up anyone if they end up cutting Monroe. With these thoughts in mind, I would still feel disappointed if the Twins are planning to start him next year. As a bat for the bench, I think it is a great acquisition, and I'm not worried about them overpaying for him for 1 year, since I think most of the acquisitions this offseason should be young, pre-arbitration hitters (my offseason plan here).
Friday, October 26, 2007
2008 Third Base Class
Boston won Game 2 behind another strong starting pitching performance, this time from Curt Schilling. The Rockies garnered five hits... and four of them were from Matt Holliday. Hard to win when only one person on the team can get on base. Obviously, though, this was a much closer contest than on Wednesday night, as Ubaldo Jimenez gave up two runs to take the loss in a 2-1 defeat. Hopefully the fortunes will turn now that the teams are heading to Coors Field, because I would really like to see a competitive series.
With the requisite World Series note out of the way, it's time to focus on the players who will become free agents once it ends. Specifically, I will take a look at the third basemen and leftfielders (which would leave Jason Kubel as the Designated Hitter) who will be available in order to see which ones are a possibility for the Twins to sign this off-season. Second base could also be considered a position of need, but since it seems as if the Twins are content with Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla, I'm not going to address that situation.
Today, I'll look at the third basemen. There are many names that can be thrown out at first glance, both because they are old and not good: Geoff Blum, Tony Batista, Russell Branyan, Jeff Cirillo, Greg Norton (who has an option anyway), and Abraham Nunez (of the Phillies). It may seem unnecessary to even mention these players, but then think of who the Twins have signed in the past (it actually includes two of those players). Better players available would include Aaron Boone, Corey Koskie, or Mike Lamb. Koskie has an option the Brewers have indicated they will not exercise, but both Boone and Koskie are coming off serious injuries. Either of them would be a risk of simply being another Jeff Cirillo or, even worse, another Tony Batista. Therefore, I don't advocate signing either. Lamb is likely to sign a deal with the Astros after finishing his years of arbitration, so that takes care of those three. In reality, the Twins would need to look towards the next level up (in performance and price), which really means either Pedro Feliz or Mike Lowell. Either of these players would command more than the Twins have been willing to pay in the past, but maybe Bill Smith will bring a different attitude toward signing free agents. I think Feliz will get more than he is worth after four straight years of 20+ home runs. He isn't a very good fielder, despite a marked improvement over 2006, and his career on base percentage is .288, including a .290 mark this past year. Lowell, therefore, would be more worth the money. Granted, he will cost more than Feliz, but he is also a significantly better player, including being one of the best defenders at the hot corner.
In conclusion, there are not many options at third base. I would be okay with the Twins signing Koskie if it was on the cheap and they were very quick to get rid of (or at least bench) him if he didn't perform. I think the price tag for Feliz will be too high for a player of his caliber, but Mike Lowell would be a good, albeit expensive, option. Depending on what other moves the Twins make with regard to their costs, though, they may be able to afford that move.
What's that? I forgot one player likely to be a free agent? Which would be the simple solution? Oh, right! Let's sign Alex Rodriguez to a 5-year, $120 million deal and give him part ownership.
With the requisite World Series note out of the way, it's time to focus on the players who will become free agents once it ends. Specifically, I will take a look at the third basemen and leftfielders (which would leave Jason Kubel as the Designated Hitter) who will be available in order to see which ones are a possibility for the Twins to sign this off-season. Second base could also be considered a position of need, but since it seems as if the Twins are content with Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla, I'm not going to address that situation.
Today, I'll look at the third basemen. There are many names that can be thrown out at first glance, both because they are old and not good: Geoff Blum, Tony Batista, Russell Branyan, Jeff Cirillo, Greg Norton (who has an option anyway), and Abraham Nunez (of the Phillies). It may seem unnecessary to even mention these players, but then think of who the Twins have signed in the past (it actually includes two of those players). Better players available would include Aaron Boone, Corey Koskie, or Mike Lamb. Koskie has an option the Brewers have indicated they will not exercise, but both Boone and Koskie are coming off serious injuries. Either of them would be a risk of simply being another Jeff Cirillo or, even worse, another Tony Batista. Therefore, I don't advocate signing either. Lamb is likely to sign a deal with the Astros after finishing his years of arbitration, so that takes care of those three. In reality, the Twins would need to look towards the next level up (in performance and price), which really means either Pedro Feliz or Mike Lowell. Either of these players would command more than the Twins have been willing to pay in the past, but maybe Bill Smith will bring a different attitude toward signing free agents. I think Feliz will get more than he is worth after four straight years of 20+ home runs. He isn't a very good fielder, despite a marked improvement over 2006, and his career on base percentage is .288, including a .290 mark this past year. Lowell, therefore, would be more worth the money. Granted, he will cost more than Feliz, but he is also a significantly better player, including being one of the best defenders at the hot corner.
In conclusion, there are not many options at third base. I would be okay with the Twins signing Koskie if it was on the cheap and they were very quick to get rid of (or at least bench) him if he didn't perform. I think the price tag for Feliz will be too high for a player of his caliber, but Mike Lowell would be a good, albeit expensive, option. Depending on what other moves the Twins make with regard to their costs, though, they may be able to afford that move.
What's that? I forgot one player likely to be a free agent? Which would be the simple solution? Oh, right! Let's sign Alex Rodriguez to a 5-year, $120 million deal and give him part ownership.
Monday, October 8, 2007
40-Man Roster Changes
In my post yesterday, I discussed changes that the Twins should make mainly to their major league team and the 25-man roster. Today, I will discuss what I think the Twins should do with some of their minor leaguers and the 40-man roster. The Twins have already started dropping some of the dead weight from the 40-man roster by jettisoning Luis Rodriguez, Lew Ford, Josh Rabe, and Tommy Watkins from it, but there are plenty of other changes that need to be made.
To start, there are still 6 other players who definitely need to be taken off the 40-man roster. Whether these players are released or they go play for Rochester or New Britain is inconsequential; the important thing is that room is made for other guys on the roster. These 6 players are: LHP Carmen Cali, LHP Errol Simonitsch, C Chris Heintz, C Matt LeCroy, IF Chris Basak, and OF Darnell McDonald. Cali will be 29 next month and, though he had a decent ERA, allowed 40 baserunners in just 21 innings for the Twins this season. Simonitsch pitched well this year, but it was as a 25-year old in Single A. As for Heintz and LeCroy, it is obvious that Jose Morales (25 in February) should be the third catcher and that neither one of these 30-something catchers can hit a lick or play defense. Basak, who was claimed off waivers from the Yankees during the season, is almost 29 and a career minor leaguer with a .722 OPS. Lastly, Darnell McDonald has looked bad in his 2 chances in the majors (.143/.200/.167 in 42 at-bats) and managed only a .417 slugging percentage this past season in Rochester.
After getting rid of Ford, L-Rod, Rabe, and Watkins, the Twins have 37 men on the 40-man roster, which means that outrighting or releasing these 6 guys whittles it down to 31. After Rondell White's retirement, the release of Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva, and the proposed signing of Sammy Sosa, the roster is down to 29. Following my proposed trade of Johan Santana, there would be a net gain of one player on the roster (Clayton Kershaw would not need to be added to it), making there a total of 30. The next change in the roster would be the addition of the players on the 60-day DL to the 40-man roster; currently there are 4 guys on the 60-day DL, and 15 days after the world series, they must be added to the 40-man roster or sent down to the minors. These 4 are: Francisco Liriano, Jesse Crain, Alejandro Machado, and Jose Morales. Morales, Liriano, and Crain will obviously be added to the roster, but I am not sure if Machado should be (more on him later). Crain could very well start next year on the 60-day DL, but he has to be taken off the DL during the offseason. These additions push the total number of players on the roster up to 33 (without Machado).
This is where the discussion of the 40-man roster actually turns to minor leaguers. The main reason for adding players to the 40-man roster in the offseason is to protect them from being taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft. For that reason, the Twins should add Matt Tolbert to the 40-man roster, as he is now eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft. In addition, though they were both eligible for the draft last season, I think Brock Peterson and Garrett Guzman should be added in order to protect them after they had good seasons at New Britain this past year. Finally, though he is not yet eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft, the Twins should add Brian Duensing to the roster, simply because there are some spots open and he (or Nick Blackburn) would be the first call-up should there be an injury to a pitcher (especially if Reyes, the only lefty in my proposed bullpen, goes down). These 4 additions push the roster total up to 37. If the Twins do not bring in anyone else who needs to be added to the 40-man roster, then one spot would be used for Alejandro Machado and the other 2 could be left open or used for Matt Moses and Doug Deeds. However, if the Twins need extra room on the 40-man roster, then they could remove Jose Mijares and Ricky Barrett from the roster and risk losing those two to free agency.
All these moves leave the 40-man roster looking like this:
Pitchers: Scott Baker, Ricky Barrett, Nick Blackburn, Boof Bonser, Jesse Crain, Julio DePaula, Brian Duensing, Matt Garza, Matt Guerrier, Francisco Liriano, Jose Mijares, Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, Glen Perkins, Dennys Reyes, Juan Rincon, Kevin Slowey, Oswaldo Sosa.
Catchers: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales, Mike Redmond.
Infielders: Jason Bartlett, Brian Buscher, Alexi Casilla, Andy LaRoche, Justin Morneau, Brock Peterson, Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert.
Outfielders: Michael Cuddyer, Garrett Guzman, Garrett Jones, Matt Kemp, Jason Kubel, Sammy Sosa, Denard Span, Jason Tyner.
Next three on: Alejandro Machado, Doug Deeds, Matt Moses.
Next two off: Ricky Barrett, Jose Mijares.
To start, there are still 6 other players who definitely need to be taken off the 40-man roster. Whether these players are released or they go play for Rochester or New Britain is inconsequential; the important thing is that room is made for other guys on the roster. These 6 players are: LHP Carmen Cali, LHP Errol Simonitsch, C Chris Heintz, C Matt LeCroy, IF Chris Basak, and OF Darnell McDonald. Cali will be 29 next month and, though he had a decent ERA, allowed 40 baserunners in just 21 innings for the Twins this season. Simonitsch pitched well this year, but it was as a 25-year old in Single A. As for Heintz and LeCroy, it is obvious that Jose Morales (25 in February) should be the third catcher and that neither one of these 30-something catchers can hit a lick or play defense. Basak, who was claimed off waivers from the Yankees during the season, is almost 29 and a career minor leaguer with a .722 OPS. Lastly, Darnell McDonald has looked bad in his 2 chances in the majors (.143/.200/.167 in 42 at-bats) and managed only a .417 slugging percentage this past season in Rochester.
After getting rid of Ford, L-Rod, Rabe, and Watkins, the Twins have 37 men on the 40-man roster, which means that outrighting or releasing these 6 guys whittles it down to 31. After Rondell White's retirement, the release of Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva, and the proposed signing of Sammy Sosa, the roster is down to 29. Following my proposed trade of Johan Santana, there would be a net gain of one player on the roster (Clayton Kershaw would not need to be added to it), making there a total of 30. The next change in the roster would be the addition of the players on the 60-day DL to the 40-man roster; currently there are 4 guys on the 60-day DL, and 15 days after the world series, they must be added to the 40-man roster or sent down to the minors. These 4 are: Francisco Liriano, Jesse Crain, Alejandro Machado, and Jose Morales. Morales, Liriano, and Crain will obviously be added to the roster, but I am not sure if Machado should be (more on him later). Crain could very well start next year on the 60-day DL, but he has to be taken off the DL during the offseason. These additions push the total number of players on the roster up to 33 (without Machado).
This is where the discussion of the 40-man roster actually turns to minor leaguers. The main reason for adding players to the 40-man roster in the offseason is to protect them from being taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft. For that reason, the Twins should add Matt Tolbert to the 40-man roster, as he is now eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft. In addition, though they were both eligible for the draft last season, I think Brock Peterson and Garrett Guzman should be added in order to protect them after they had good seasons at New Britain this past year. Finally, though he is not yet eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft, the Twins should add Brian Duensing to the roster, simply because there are some spots open and he (or Nick Blackburn) would be the first call-up should there be an injury to a pitcher (especially if Reyes, the only lefty in my proposed bullpen, goes down). These 4 additions push the roster total up to 37. If the Twins do not bring in anyone else who needs to be added to the 40-man roster, then one spot would be used for Alejandro Machado and the other 2 could be left open or used for Matt Moses and Doug Deeds. However, if the Twins need extra room on the 40-man roster, then they could remove Jose Mijares and Ricky Barrett from the roster and risk losing those two to free agency.
All these moves leave the 40-man roster looking like this:
Pitchers: Scott Baker, Ricky Barrett, Nick Blackburn, Boof Bonser, Jesse Crain, Julio DePaula, Brian Duensing, Matt Garza, Matt Guerrier, Francisco Liriano, Jose Mijares, Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, Glen Perkins, Dennys Reyes, Juan Rincon, Kevin Slowey, Oswaldo Sosa.
Catchers: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales, Mike Redmond.
Infielders: Jason Bartlett, Brian Buscher, Alexi Casilla, Andy LaRoche, Justin Morneau, Brock Peterson, Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert.
Outfielders: Michael Cuddyer, Garrett Guzman, Garrett Jones, Matt Kemp, Jason Kubel, Sammy Sosa, Denard Span, Jason Tyner.
Next three on: Alejandro Machado, Doug Deeds, Matt Moses.
Next two off: Ricky Barrett, Jose Mijares.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Decision Time!
The playoffs have barely begun, yet the Twins' offseason has already begun. Seeing that the Twins have already let Luis Rodriguez go and outrighted 3 more players (Lew Ford, Josh Rabe, and Tommy Watkins) to the minors yesterday, I realized I couldn't put off my offseason wishlist any longer. This is one of the most important off-seasons in recent history, with important decisions surrounding Torii Hunter, Johan Santana, and others looming. The following moves that I suggest the Twins take may be surprising to some (and are not even close to what I expected to write here when I started looking things over this morning), but most of them have been suggested by other Twins fans out there as well.
When I started researching what the Twins should do this off-season, my first notion was that they should definitely keep Santana and try to extend his contract. However, after looking at the options and trying to find a way for the Twins to fill their holes on offense, the best option came down to trading Santana. Clearly, the Twins' biggest needs right now are on offense, and they have lots of young, promising pitchers looking to get a shot in the rotation, so trading Santana for a couple of young hitters forms the basis of my off-season plan for the Twins. Now, obviously, I don't know the personal side of the major league business at all, so I couldn't factor that into my plans. (For example, Justin Morneau has made some statements about possibly not signing if Johan and Torii don't, and I don't know how much of an effect those two leaving might actually have on him.) So, without further ado, here are my ideas for what the Twins roster should look like heading into next season:
Starting Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey.
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Juan Rincon, Boof Bonser, Dennys Reyes.
Catcher: Joe Mauer.
Infielders: Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, Jason Bartlett, Andy LaRoche.
Outfielders: Jason Kubel, Matt Kemp, Michael Cuddyer, Sammy Sosa (DH).
Bench: Jason Tyner, Garrett Jones, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Mike Redmond.
DL: Jesse Crain.
Additions: Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp, Sammy Sosa.
Losses: Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, Luis Rodriguez.
Clearly, the big move was trading Santana, and my proposed trade is a variant of the Clayton Kershaw/Matt Kemp deal that there have been rumors about. I would like to see another hitter added into this deal, and third base prospect Andy LaRoche certainly fits the bill. The Dodgers have other young infield prospects, and if necessary I would be OK with the Twins adding in a pitching prospect if need be, such as Oswaldo Sosa, but I would hope that wouldn't be necessary. Kershaw is a 19 year old left-handed starter considered to be a top prospect, and he has put up amazing strikeout numbers, but needs to work on his control before he is major league ready. Kemp, a centerfielder, has gotten some playing time in the majors over the last two years, posting an OPS of .893 and an OPS+ of 127 as a 22 year old in 292 at bats in 2007. LaRoche is a 23-year old with a career line of .294/.374/.524 in the minor leagues, including 28 home runs, a .315 batting average, and a nearly equal K to BB ratio in 467 at bats in AAA over the past 2 seasons. Based on the haul the Rangers were able to get for Mark Teixeira, I think this trade is definitely possible, although the Dodgers would probably want to sign Santana to a long-term deal (which they have the money to do if they want). The next move of the off-season should be to sign Sammy Sosa. This move would seemingly go against the rest of my plan, which is playing all the youngsters and just seeing what they can do. However, without Sosa, the Twins would still have a gaping hole at DH, and the 39 year old Sosa would both fill that void and show the fan base that despite the losses of Hunter and Santana, the Twins weren't totally giving up. I really have no idea what the market for Sosa would be, but I would guess the Twins could sign for a 2 year deal worth 18 million dollars or less. That might sound like a lot of money, but with my plan for the Twins, their payroll will be low enough for the next 2 years that they can easily pay that to Sosa. After those 2 years, hopefully a player from the Twins farm system, such as Brock Peterson, or an affordable free agent will be able to take over at DH.
The next moves I would like the Twins to make are to sign Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, and Justin Morneau to front-loaded long-term deals. The Twins still have control over Cuddy and Morneau and Nathan has a $6 million dollar club option, but the Twins have waited long enough to sign their key players, and this off-season is the time. Also, signing them to front-loaded deals would allow the Twins to pay these 3 more money in the next couple years when the rest of the roster is (for the most part) making the league minimum or just entering arbitration. I think most people would agree to signing Cuddyer and Morneau, although some may disagree with signing Nathan. I don't think Neshek is ready to be the closer (see his struggles and possible injury in the second half), and Nathan is only going to be 33 next season. There are plenty of examples of older closers still going at it, such as Mariano Rivera, so I think it makes sense to sign Nathan to an extension either before or after picking up his option. I don't know how common it is to sign players to front-loaded deals, but I think it would make sense in this situation.
Seeing as how I left them off my roster, it's clear that I am suggesting letting Carlos Silva and Torii Hunter walk this off-season. Both of them performed well this season, but it is not worth the money to keep either one. For Hunter, his price will go too high for the Twins to pay him even though there is no suitable major-league replacement in center, and it seems as if he doesn't really want to stay that much anyways. (I just hope the Yankees don't get him, or Santana for that matter, which is another reason why they should trade him to the Dodgers). He will be 33 next July, and the Twins can't afford to give him a 5-year deal around $100M. Silva, on the other hand, has suggested taking a hometown discount, but with his buddy Santana gone, that might be out the window anyway. And, even if he is still willing to take one, his price (somewhere around 3 yr/$20-25M) is too high when there are so many young pitchers who deserve a rotation spot. One could argue that it would be worth it to pay him to be the veteran and mentor of the starting rotation, but I don't think it is.
With these moves the Twins' payroll would look something like this:
$0.39M (league minimum)- Baker, Bartlett, Bonser, Buscher, Casilla, Garza, Jones, Kemp, LaRoche, Liriano, Neshek, Perkins, Slowey.
$0.95- Redmond, Tyner.
$1.0M- Reyes.
$1.05M- Crain.
$2M- Guerrier, Rincon.
$2.4M- Punto.
$3M- Kubel.
$6M- Nathan (club option).
$6.25M- Mauer.
$9M- Sosa (part of a 2 yr/$18M deal), Cuddyer (part of a 5 yr/$33M deal)
$13M- Morneau (part of a 4 yr/$45M deal)
Obviously, the exact numbers for the Sosa, Cuddyer, and Morneau contracts are a lot of guesswork (the rest are all actual numbers from Cot's Baseball Contracts), so those could be way off, but the total payroll of this team is only about $60M dollars, which leaves plenty of wiggle room, as that number is expected to be around $80M next year. Now, this seems like I am advocating a rebuilding year for the Twins, and the more I look at it, the more I see it that way too. However, though this plan is certainly not to create a world series champ in '08, I do not think this team will be much, if any, worse than the Twins were in 2007, and starting in 2009 I think this team will be very competitive, just in time for the new stadium and the next wave of young players needing long-term deals. For those of you not convinced, I found this comment about the rumored Santana-to-LA trade here, and thought that it explained the Twins' predicament well:
"Honestly, this could be a good deal for both clubs. For the Twins, the
opportunity to replace Torii Hunter and Santana with players of potentially
equal talent, but 10 years younger and millions cheaper? This is the way
the Twins have been doing it for years, and they have been successful.
Twins fans worried about losing everyone from Knoblauch to Koskie to Pierzynski
to Guzman to Milton to Ortiz-- but the Twins at worst have suffered those
losses (Ortiz), and at best improved from them (Joe Nathan). The Twins
have a knack of replacing players when their value is maximum (about to
decrease), and they have excellent scouting to figure out who to bring
in. The players they've brought in in trades have always improved the team
in the long run. With the club they have right now in a tough division,
the Twins are not a threat; with this deal, they will be laying the groundwork
to have a contending team when the new stadium opens."
Now that I've covered my ideas for the Twins' off-season, I'll discuss what the man who matters's ideas are, as new GM Bill Smith gave an internet interview about the same topic recently. So far, the actual results have been promising, as he let Luis Rodriguez go to the Padres off waivers and sent Lew Ford, Tommy Watkins, and Josh Rabe to the minors (they could leave via free agency now, but that's no big loss). Smith did not say anything especially interesting, though he did say that Joe Mauer would not switch to 3rd base and that Liriano is still on schedule to start 2008 in the Twins' rotation. Though not really a positive, Smith did acknowledge "we probably have bigger holes to fill than second base," which means that he is at least looking towards fixing the obvious holes at 3rd base and in centerfield (if, as presumed, Hunter leaves). While he was asked about Sosa and other free agents, he was unable to answer due to MLB's tampering rules. One last note: he did say that Kubel would be the "frontrunner" for the starting job in leftfield, which I think should be obvious, but then quickly added that "Gardenhire makes out the lineups every day," saying that it is the manager's decision who should play each day, which, to me, is unfortunate (at least as long as Gardy is managing).
Finally, after all this writing and all this analysis, I fall back to this one quote I read regarding the Twins' off-season plans:
"Or do what they are destined to do. Not sign Hunter, try to get
Santana to agree to a long-term deal, and sign no one worthwhile
in the offseason. They will send a makeshift lineup onto the field, bank
on their pitching, and hope 4 hitters will have career years, so they can make
it to the playoffs."
When I started researching what the Twins should do this off-season, my first notion was that they should definitely keep Santana and try to extend his contract. However, after looking at the options and trying to find a way for the Twins to fill their holes on offense, the best option came down to trading Santana. Clearly, the Twins' biggest needs right now are on offense, and they have lots of young, promising pitchers looking to get a shot in the rotation, so trading Santana for a couple of young hitters forms the basis of my off-season plan for the Twins. Now, obviously, I don't know the personal side of the major league business at all, so I couldn't factor that into my plans. (For example, Justin Morneau has made some statements about possibly not signing if Johan and Torii don't, and I don't know how much of an effect those two leaving might actually have on him.) So, without further ado, here are my ideas for what the Twins roster should look like heading into next season:
Starting Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey.
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Juan Rincon, Boof Bonser, Dennys Reyes.
Catcher: Joe Mauer.
Infielders: Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, Jason Bartlett, Andy LaRoche.
Outfielders: Jason Kubel, Matt Kemp, Michael Cuddyer, Sammy Sosa (DH).
Bench: Jason Tyner, Garrett Jones, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Mike Redmond.
DL: Jesse Crain.
Additions: Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp, Sammy Sosa.
Losses: Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, Luis Rodriguez.
Clearly, the big move was trading Santana, and my proposed trade is a variant of the Clayton Kershaw/Matt Kemp deal that there have been rumors about. I would like to see another hitter added into this deal, and third base prospect Andy LaRoche certainly fits the bill. The Dodgers have other young infield prospects, and if necessary I would be OK with the Twins adding in a pitching prospect if need be, such as Oswaldo Sosa, but I would hope that wouldn't be necessary. Kershaw is a 19 year old left-handed starter considered to be a top prospect, and he has put up amazing strikeout numbers, but needs to work on his control before he is major league ready. Kemp, a centerfielder, has gotten some playing time in the majors over the last two years, posting an OPS of .893 and an OPS+ of 127 as a 22 year old in 292 at bats in 2007. LaRoche is a 23-year old with a career line of .294/.374/.524 in the minor leagues, including 28 home runs, a .315 batting average, and a nearly equal K to BB ratio in 467 at bats in AAA over the past 2 seasons. Based on the haul the Rangers were able to get for Mark Teixeira, I think this trade is definitely possible, although the Dodgers would probably want to sign Santana to a long-term deal (which they have the money to do if they want). The next move of the off-season should be to sign Sammy Sosa. This move would seemingly go against the rest of my plan, which is playing all the youngsters and just seeing what they can do. However, without Sosa, the Twins would still have a gaping hole at DH, and the 39 year old Sosa would both fill that void and show the fan base that despite the losses of Hunter and Santana, the Twins weren't totally giving up. I really have no idea what the market for Sosa would be, but I would guess the Twins could sign for a 2 year deal worth 18 million dollars or less. That might sound like a lot of money, but with my plan for the Twins, their payroll will be low enough for the next 2 years that they can easily pay that to Sosa. After those 2 years, hopefully a player from the Twins farm system, such as Brock Peterson, or an affordable free agent will be able to take over at DH.
The next moves I would like the Twins to make are to sign Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, and Justin Morneau to front-loaded long-term deals. The Twins still have control over Cuddy and Morneau and Nathan has a $6 million dollar club option, but the Twins have waited long enough to sign their key players, and this off-season is the time. Also, signing them to front-loaded deals would allow the Twins to pay these 3 more money in the next couple years when the rest of the roster is (for the most part) making the league minimum or just entering arbitration. I think most people would agree to signing Cuddyer and Morneau, although some may disagree with signing Nathan. I don't think Neshek is ready to be the closer (see his struggles and possible injury in the second half), and Nathan is only going to be 33 next season. There are plenty of examples of older closers still going at it, such as Mariano Rivera, so I think it makes sense to sign Nathan to an extension either before or after picking up his option. I don't know how common it is to sign players to front-loaded deals, but I think it would make sense in this situation.
Seeing as how I left them off my roster, it's clear that I am suggesting letting Carlos Silva and Torii Hunter walk this off-season. Both of them performed well this season, but it is not worth the money to keep either one. For Hunter, his price will go too high for the Twins to pay him even though there is no suitable major-league replacement in center, and it seems as if he doesn't really want to stay that much anyways. (I just hope the Yankees don't get him, or Santana for that matter, which is another reason why they should trade him to the Dodgers). He will be 33 next July, and the Twins can't afford to give him a 5-year deal around $100M. Silva, on the other hand, has suggested taking a hometown discount, but with his buddy Santana gone, that might be out the window anyway. And, even if he is still willing to take one, his price (somewhere around 3 yr/$20-25M) is too high when there are so many young pitchers who deserve a rotation spot. One could argue that it would be worth it to pay him to be the veteran and mentor of the starting rotation, but I don't think it is.
With these moves the Twins' payroll would look something like this:
$0.39M (league minimum)- Baker, Bartlett, Bonser, Buscher, Casilla, Garza, Jones, Kemp, LaRoche, Liriano, Neshek, Perkins, Slowey.
$0.95- Redmond, Tyner.
$1.0M- Reyes.
$1.05M- Crain.
$2M- Guerrier, Rincon.
$2.4M- Punto.
$3M- Kubel.
$6M- Nathan (club option).
$6.25M- Mauer.
$9M- Sosa (part of a 2 yr/$18M deal), Cuddyer (part of a 5 yr/$33M deal)
$13M- Morneau (part of a 4 yr/$45M deal)
Obviously, the exact numbers for the Sosa, Cuddyer, and Morneau contracts are a lot of guesswork (the rest are all actual numbers from Cot's Baseball Contracts), so those could be way off, but the total payroll of this team is only about $60M dollars, which leaves plenty of wiggle room, as that number is expected to be around $80M next year. Now, this seems like I am advocating a rebuilding year for the Twins, and the more I look at it, the more I see it that way too. However, though this plan is certainly not to create a world series champ in '08, I do not think this team will be much, if any, worse than the Twins were in 2007, and starting in 2009 I think this team will be very competitive, just in time for the new stadium and the next wave of young players needing long-term deals. For those of you not convinced, I found this comment about the rumored Santana-to-LA trade here, and thought that it explained the Twins' predicament well:
"Honestly, this could be a good deal for both clubs. For the Twins, the
opportunity to replace Torii Hunter and Santana with players of potentially
equal talent, but 10 years younger and millions cheaper? This is the way
the Twins have been doing it for years, and they have been successful.
Twins fans worried about losing everyone from Knoblauch to Koskie to Pierzynski
to Guzman to Milton to Ortiz-- but the Twins at worst have suffered those
losses (Ortiz), and at best improved from them (Joe Nathan). The Twins
have a knack of replacing players when their value is maximum (about to
decrease), and they have excellent scouting to figure out who to bring
in. The players they've brought in in trades have always improved the team
in the long run. With the club they have right now in a tough division,
the Twins are not a threat; with this deal, they will be laying the groundwork
to have a contending team when the new stadium opens."
Now that I've covered my ideas for the Twins' off-season, I'll discuss what the man who matters's ideas are, as new GM Bill Smith gave an internet interview about the same topic recently. So far, the actual results have been promising, as he let Luis Rodriguez go to the Padres off waivers and sent Lew Ford, Tommy Watkins, and Josh Rabe to the minors (they could leave via free agency now, but that's no big loss). Smith did not say anything especially interesting, though he did say that Joe Mauer would not switch to 3rd base and that Liriano is still on schedule to start 2008 in the Twins' rotation. Though not really a positive, Smith did acknowledge "we probably have bigger holes to fill than second base," which means that he is at least looking towards fixing the obvious holes at 3rd base and in centerfield (if, as presumed, Hunter leaves). While he was asked about Sosa and other free agents, he was unable to answer due to MLB's tampering rules. One last note: he did say that Kubel would be the "frontrunner" for the starting job in leftfield, which I think should be obvious, but then quickly added that "Gardenhire makes out the lineups every day," saying that it is the manager's decision who should play each day, which, to me, is unfortunate (at least as long as Gardy is managing).
Finally, after all this writing and all this analysis, I fall back to this one quote I read regarding the Twins' off-season plans:
"Or do what they are destined to do. Not sign Hunter, try to get
Santana to agree to a long-term deal, and sign no one worthwhile
in the offseason. They will send a makeshift lineup onto the field, bank
on their pitching, and hope 4 hitters will have career years, so they can make
it to the playoffs."
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