GM Analysis: Trades

On September 14, 2007, Twin #1 made the inaugural post on this blog. About 12 hours earlier, Terry Ryan had announced his resignation from the general manager position that he held since the early 1990s. The Twins announced that his successor would be his former right-hand man, assistant GM Bill Smith. In his first offseason, Smith guided the Twins through tough situations with Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. The team finished his first season at the helm in a tie for first place, but missed the playoffs when they lost the memorable one-game playoff against the White Sox. The following winter was much quieter than his first, with the biggest move being the signing of Joe Crede in late February. With the trade deadline fast approaching, I thought now would be a good time to take a more detailed look at Smith's (mostly underwhelming) work thus far.

November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.

November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.

January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.

August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.

So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.

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Returning the Favor

Craig Monroe, cut by the Twins in mid-season last year, helped the Pirates beat the Twins 6-4 with a huge day at the plate. He hit three home runs and had four RBI's, but fortunately it was only a meaningless Spring Training game.

Hello, Goodbye

===>In addition to releasing Livan Hernandez, the Twins have done the same with Craig Monroe! At this point, I am really shocked--in a good way. I never thought they'd get rid of one, let alone both, of them. They are certainly both good moves (with Hernandez's being necessary), but I am just so thrilled that the Twins actually made them. Randy Ruiz has replaced Craig Monroe on the roster, and made his Major League debut last night at the age of 30. He started at DH and went 1-3 with a run scored. Hopefully, he can provide some semblance of a right-handed power bat at DH. I really think he has a chance to be very helpful to the team, at least until Michael Cuddyer comes back.

===>I am into full mockery mode with Adam Everett. I've started making comments like "it's hard to score with only eight hitters in your lineup" and "Oh, it looks like Everett went up to bat, and the ump told him not waste everyone's time and called him out". I thought he might show some resurgence after having all that time off, but his bat appears to be as horrible as ever. Granted, I can't watch the games, so I can't judge his fielding, but if he continues to be this bad on offense, there's no caliber of defense to make up for it. I mean, I really was rooting for him on Thursday, when he was 0-4 and came up with 2 outs and the bases loaded... but he proceeded to ground out. At some point, a guy has had all his chances.

===>As it turns out, it looks like there is a chance, albeit very small, that Alexi Casilla will not miss the rest of the season. We'll know for sure in about a week, but that would certainly be a huge boost for the Twins. They really need to get somebody else if he is out for the season, because a lineup that includes Everett, Nick Punto, and Brendan Harris will be really pushing the Twins' luck to make the playoffs. Well, really just one that includes Everett. I'd be willing to give Alejandro Machado a chance if Everett doesn't have a sudden turnaround; or, if they're okay with Harris at short and Punto at second with really no other middle infielders, they could bring Matt Macri back up. Maybe they'd get rid of Mike Lamb and do both? I would still be betting heavily against it happening, despite the Twins' recent transactions.

===>For the record, Machado is a career .294/.364/.360 minor league hitter and is now 26 years old. He had five at bats a few years ago with the Red Sox, collecting one hit. In his Triple-A career (2005, 2006, and 2008), he's batted .300/.359/.379, .260/.356/.346, and .338/.346/.525 with 85 walks and 104 strikeouts. This year's stats have been accumulated in just 80 at bats, his first at bats since 2006 due to an injury that cost him all of 2007.

===>I do not understand the White Sox trading for Ken Griffey Jr. I'd say more about, but firejoemorgan.com wrote all that can be said about it. Be sure to read their analysis of the trade, as it's one of their best posts I've read, and their stuff is usually very funny.

What alien creature infiltrated Craig Monroe's body...

and suddenly turned its host into Minnesota's most important player? Really--how does Craig Monroe single-handedly provide the offense for the Twins in yesterday's game after doing close to nothing for the first three weeks of the season?

Well, however it happened, it sure happened at a good time. Monroe hit his first home run and added two more hits, along with three RBIs, in order to carry the offense. Just when everybody was calling for his head (OK, it wasn't that bad, but only because he hadn't been playing much and didn't have an opportunity to show off his suckiness), all of a sudden he is hitting .300. He's been under a lot of scrutiny since his signing, because of how the Twins overpaid, but maybe he should be given more of a chance. Or perhaps I'll change my mind when he plays next time and goes 0-5 with four strikeouts.

Oh, you say someone did do that yesterday? Carlos Gomez, you say? His batting average has plummeted all the way into the .230 range and he's not drawing walks or hitting for power really. How much are the Twins willing to watch him struggle? Obviously, there has to be some limit; if he were to hit .050 for the next month, he wouldn't stay in the majors. But the real question is, where exactly is this limit?

The bullpen was great in following Livan Hernandez. Joe Nathan moved to a perfect 7 for 7 in save opportunities. Jason Kubel had a very bloopy bloop single to center to drive in the game-winning run in the eighth inning. All in all, a solid win to get back to .500.

The Long-Awaited Deal

That's right. We've been waiting for this deal since November, and it's finally happened: the Twins signed Craig Monroe. In all seriousness, the terms of the deal haven't been announced yet, but this does mean the Twins will have to give up some minor-leaguer for Monroe. I really can't pass any judgment on the signing/trade until I know who the Twins gave up, how much they signed Monroe for, and what the rest of their plans for the offseason are. Is Monroe going to be the starting centerfielder? I certainly hope not. Is he going to take at bats away from Jason Kubel in the DH spot? Again, I hope not. Is he going to be a reserve outfielder? Now that's a good plan.

UPDATE 12/12 1:29 AM: Monroe signed for $3.82M, the minimum he could (a 20% pay cut). The Twins have plenty of money to spend next year, so I'm not too worried about it. Since the Twins work off a yearly budget, any money they save next year is not going to be used in subsequent seasons, so they need to find somewhere to spend this money. I'm still going to reserve judgment on the deal until I see what exactly Monroe's role on this team is going to be. If he's a 4th outfielder or absolute last-resort centerfielder, then I'm okay with that, but I don't want to see him taking at bats from Jason Kubel.

Update: Twins Are Still The Twins

On the first day of free agency, the Twins have acquired OF Craig Monroe from the Cubs for a player to be named later. After all the speculation about making some big trades involving Johan Santana, Joe Nathan, or some young pitchers, the Twins first attempt to improve the offense is largely reminiscent of the veteran acquisitions they have made in the last couple years. Monroe is a career .256/.303/.446 hitter as mainly a corner outfielder, but hit a putrid .219/.268/.370 in 392 at bats in 2007. I'm not particularly fond of Monroe, but, as long as the Twins have not already reserved a starting spot for him in 2007, this trade is an acceptable start to the Twins' offseason plans. Monroe is a low-average hitter with no on-base skills and plus-power. He has played a limited amount of centerfield in the majors, but has well below-average range there and would not be a good replacement for Torii Hunter. As an option off the bench, Monroe is a great acquisition; as a starting outfielder, Monroe is another example of the typical Twins acquisition over the last couple years that has not worked out. As for his contract, Monroe is entering his third year of arbitration eligibility, after making $4.775M in '07 and $2.8M in '06. After his poor performance in 2007, I would expect his salary to decrease, but he will still certainly get at least a couple million dollars in 2008.

In an interesting twist, the Twins acquired the former Tiger from the Cubs one day after the Tigers acquired former Twins' OF Jacque Jones from the Cubs. In other news, 3B Ryan Braun of the Brewers and 2B Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox were named the NL and AL rookies of the year, respectively, and the Cy Young Award winners are expected to be announced shortly.

UPDATE (6:56 PM 11/14): Apparently, I did not understand this trade and its finances completely when I posted yesterday. To start, if Monroe goes to arbitration, he would get a raise in salary, presumably somewhere between 5 and 6 million dollars. However, the Twins do not have to offer him arbitration, as they could either non-tender (basically, release) him by 12/1 or sign him to a contract before arbitration. Another catch, though, is that he can only accept a 20% pay cut from the previous season if he's not cut, so the lowest his salary could be next year is $3.82M. Another option is that the Twins could non-tender Monroe and then try to sign him as a free agent, in which case they could sign to whatever amount they wanted, but they would have to compete with any other teams that might have interest (and I'm not sure how the players' union would feel about a move like that). A final note is that, as a provision of the trade, the Twins do not have to give up anyone if they end up cutting Monroe. With these thoughts in mind, I would still feel disappointed if the Twins are planning to start him next year. As a bat for the bench, I think it is a great acquisition, and I'm not worried about them overpaying for him for 1 year, since I think most of the acquisitions this offseason should be young, pre-arbitration hitters (my offseason plan here).