Game 1 on Repeat

At some point, doesn't the story just get old?  The Twins score.  The Yankees score more.  The Twins tie.  The Yankees score more.  The end.

The list of stats can go on and on.  11 straight playoff losses.  21 straight playoff games without a comeback win.  8 straight playoff losses to the Yankees, and they've scored first in every single one.  Outscored 18-2 from the seventh inning on in their last 6 against the Yankees.

You would think something would have to give.  I complained about the non-strike call on Lance Berkman in the seventh, and the subsequent bunt single by Brett Gardner and half-swing bloop single by Derek Jeter can't exactly be chalked up to the Yankees' superior ability... but at some point, you have to admit something is going on.  Not something that can be quantified, just some sort of immeasurable advantage the Yankees have over the Twins.

Once again, I'm broken.  I really thought the Twins would come out, beat up on Andy Pettitte, and prove they belonged.  Now they have to go to New York and win two games in that death knell of a stadium before coming back and needing one more at Target Field (is 'more' correct if they've yet to win one there?).  Earlier today I wrote of my remaining confidence; now I write that it has all dissipated.  I'll watch, but I'm not expecting much.  I'll root and cheer, but I'm not expecting anything more than a lead in the early innings that will disappear by the time the late innings roll around.  I'll hope, but I'm not expecting it to be rewarded.

I don't really believe Minnesota has a chance at this point.  My confidence is completely shattered.  Your move, Twins.

Take Two

If you want to read my emotional, completely nonobjective response to last night's loss, you can scroll down a bit.  This, however, is a clear-headed analysis of the Twins' chances tonight.

Just because they lost yesterday does not suddenly mean the Twins are a significantly worse team.  It's easy to write this, but another thing to believe it.  They are the exact same team they were on Wednesday at 8:00 PM.  Most of us, myself included, were expecting the Twins to come out in Game 1 and pick up a signature victory.  Something that we could all put our hat on and say, 'See?  We can play with the Yankees.'  That didn't happen, though.  Instead, the exact opposite occurred, as the Twins once again melted under the pressure that the Yankees apparently bring with them.  And, all of sudden, the thoughts came back to the fact that the Twins can't beat the Yankees; that, for some unknown reason, it'd probably be better for Twins' fans hearts if they just forfeit.

And I was as guilty as anyone.  If you read my post from right after the game, you know that.  But this is still the same team that won 94 games during the regular season, just one fewer than the Yankees.  And it's still the same team that in a way already did conquer their demons, as they managed a spectacular comeback win against the Yankees, at Yankee Stadium, against Mariano Rivera in a game back in May.

Sure, this is the postseason, and that makes it different.  But objectively we cannot let one game kill our hopes.  The Twins had already lost 68 times this year.  Some were more heartbreaking than others.  This was one of the more heartbreaking ones.  But last night's game has no effect on tonight's.  The score is going to be 0-0 when the first inning begins.  The game is still going to be in the friendly confines of Target Field, where the Twins posted an American League-best home record.

So if you were confident about yesterday's game, be confident about today's too.  Yes, the Game 1 loss definitely changes the Twins' chances in the series as a whole, but it shouldn't change your thoughts about tonight's game in particular.  So maintain your confidence tonight.  The match-up is as good as it was yesterday, with the Twins throwing Carl Pavano, who pitched beautifully in an elimination game against the Yankees in 2009, against Andy Pettitte, who, despite his experience, only recently returned from an injury and hasn't been effective in the least during that short time frame.

At 6:07, the Twins will have another opportunity to take the first chunk out of the dragon that they are attempting to slay, and I expect them to take full advantage.

Not Again

How many times?

Seriously.  How many times?

A 3-0 lead.  A 4-4 tie.  A 6-4 loss.  Yet another defeat at the hands of the Yankees.

This is not a team that is being thoroughly dominated, that is outclassed by a far superior opponent.  This is a team that just can't figure it out.  I can't figure it out.  There's no explanation.  At some point it has to end.  The Yankees, quite simply, haven't been that much better than the Twins in the past, and there's a case to be made that the Twins are actually the better team in 2010.

But, as of right now, it's just another disappointing game.  A game in which the Twins went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position.  J.J. Hardy was up with the bases loaded and two outs.  Struck out.  Jim Thome had a chance with two on and two out.  Against a right-hander.  That's been a home run 1 out of every 13 trips to the plate this year.  At Target Field.  That's a homer every 12th time.  He struck out on a pitch that bounced three times before it crossed the plate.  Then Denard Span came up with runners on second and third and two outs.  He grounded out softly to short.

I'm a little sore obviously.  I'll get some rest, write two essays before 4:00 PM today, then be ready to watch the Twins' first playoff victory since 2004 at 6:00.

The Question of Momentum

After clinching the division on September 21st, the Twins finished the season with losses in 8 of their final 11 games and were outscored 72-41.  Twins fans are used to exhilarating regular season finishes followed by playoff letdowns (see 2006 and 2009), but this unusually lackluster ending to the regular season has caused some to worry about the Twins' playoff chances.  Of course, it's easy to point out that the Twins were resting some of their key players (Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, J.J. Hardy) for many of those games, but the pessimist might point to the 9 total runs scored in the Toronto series, when much of the playoff lineup was intact, as cause for concern.

Normally, I would dismiss an abstract notion such as momentum, especially in this case where it was sacrificed in order to get the Twins as healthy as possible for the playoffs.  Rather than simply assuming momentum was irrelevant, I decided to see if the data agreed with me.  The question I sought to answer was whether momentum--measured by performance in the final 10 regular season games, as it was the easiest data to find and collect--has a significant impact on a team's performance in the Division Series.  Some other data that I collected that I thought might be correlated was overall regular season record, whether the team had home-field advantage in the playoffs or not, and the approximate clinch date for the team.  (It would have been too hard to find actual clinch dates, so I used games ahead of a playoff spot at the end of the season. It's not perfect, but hopefully it's good enough.) I used data from the last nine seasons, from 2001-2009.

The first thing I noticed about the data set is that only one other playoff team won as few games as the 2010 Twins did in their last 10:  last year's St. Louis Cardinals went 2-8 in their last 10 games and were promptly swept out of the NLDS.   One data point hardly constitutes grounds for any sort of conclusion, though. It seems obvious that playoff teams would rarely finish so poorly in their last 10 games, since those teams have to be pretty good in the first place (except for maybe the 82-win Padres of 2005).

The next two things that stood out to me are unrelated to the main theme of this post, but I felt they deserved mention anyways.  The first is just how good the 2001 Seattle Mariners were.  In Ichiro's first year (and MVP year), the Mariners won 116 games and were a full 31 games away from worrying about a playoff spot.  The next farthest ahead was the 2008 Angels, who won 100 games while taking advantage of a weak division in which no other team even went .500 (the A's finished with 79 wins).  The other interesting note is that there has not been a 5-game Division Series since 2005; of the 16 division series in the past 4 years, not one has reached a fifth game.  Really, the baseball postseason as a whole has been lacking for a few years, with most of the recent World Series reaching only four or five games.

Okay, now back to the issue of momentum.  The first problem I ran into was how exactly to quantify Division Series performance.  My two ideas were either a binary variable for advancing or not (1 for advance, 0 for not advance) or just a variable denoting the number of wins in the Division Series.  I started off by testing if just wins in the last 10 games had any correlation with the variables of interest, but the regression showed no such relationship.  The R-squared for both the binary variable and Division Series wins was under 2% with P-values well outside the area of significance.  I didn't want to just stop there and conclude that momentum is meaningless, though.

The next step was to check if any of the other data was correlated with success in the Division Series.  Regular season winning percentage, for example, had a P-value of 0.041 in a regression with Division Series wins, so regular season wins could at least be a significant factor in postseason performance.  Note: it was not correlated significantly with the binary variable 'advance', and I decided at this point that a binary variable was not really the best option for a dependent variable, so though I kept checking it to be sure I won't be mentioning it any further.

So it seems that, as I presumed in the beginning, the last 10 games represents a small sample size that has little bearing on Division Series performance, especially in a case such as the Twins' where results are skewed due to worse players getting extra playing time.  Nonetheless, I ran through a few other regressions with the other variables (games ahead and home field) to see if any interesting patterns emerged.  However, none of these variables had anything close to a significant impact on the number of Division Series wins.

In fact, the only thing last 10 wins, home-field advantage, and games ahead did have in common was that they were all correlated with regular season wins.  Thus, better teams that win more games tend to win more of their last 10 games, have home-field advantage more often, and be farther ahead in the standings.  There are certainly reasons you can give as to why the Twins might not win this series, but their sluggish finish to the season should not be one of them.  The only thing that definitely helps a team win games in the Division Series is being as good a team as possible, so the Twins did the right thing by resting their players (and maybe costing themselves a few wins in the process) in order to be at their best for the playoffs.

ALDS Game 1

For the second year in a row the Twins will face the New York Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.  Tonight at 8:37 PM, Francisco Liriano will take the mound opposite whatever imposing lineup the Yankees choose to throw at the Twins.  As they have been for the last three months, the Twins will be without both their best hitter and their best reliever (Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan).  And yet, despite that, the Twins undoubtedly are better off than they were before Game 1 of the ALDS in 2009.

That, of course, is due in large part to the circumstances surrounding their entrance into the playoffs.  Rather than playing late into the night halfway across the country just 18 hours before the start of the game, the Twins have been resting their players and getting their starters healthy for this matchup for two weeks now.  Instead of opening on the road in a city that has offered nothing but disappointment since 2002, they will play in front of a home crowd at their brand new ballpark.  And, as mentioned before, it will be a dominant Francisco Liriano pitching as opposed to the inexperienced Brian Duensing.

Even without these advantages the Twins could already boast a much improved team than last year.  Brendan Harris at designated hitter?  Try Jim Thome, a man with an OPS over 1.000.  Nick Punto and Nick Punto-lite (Matt Tolbert) both in the starting lineup?  I'll take the established Orlando Hudson and electrifying rookie Danny Valencia instead.  Orlando Cabrera, a man with the range of a slow-footed penguin, manning shortstop?  Give me perennial gold glove candidate J.J. Hardy instead.

That being said, the team they are playing, the Yankees, is similarly talented.  They boast an impressive array of hitters up and down the lineup, leaving no weak spots where the Twins can relax.  They have an excellent--if not Cy Young-worthy--southpaw pitching opposite Liriano tonight, and a few high-quality arms bridging the gap to the ageless Mariano Rivera.  The Twins have a better team than last year, but they are going to need it to handle the challenge.  And they will, in 5 games, vanquish the team that has owned them for eight years running.

Safe!

I'm not upset at all. I'm over the Twins' sweep at the hands of the Yankees, and the Angels were thoroughly outplayed last night anyways. It's just funny. And really, really embarassing, which is why Dave Cameron wrote an article advocating essentially the same instant replay system that I did back in August. It's time for MLB to do something, and luckily this something is simple, will actually speed up the game, and should appease all parties involved.

The absolute, unequivocal end

The Twins' magical run to the postseason is over. This time there are no doubts nor any possibility that they have a chance. 2009 is finally, officially fini.

Countless times throughout the season, bloggers, columnists, and Twins fans everywhere exclaimed that the season was over. Seth Stohs said so way back on August 17th. Aaron Gleeman declared them dead on October 1st, along with many others, after their second loss in the Tigers series. There were so many points at which you could have said the Twins' season was done, and yet they proved us wrong. Until now.

Having lost their 3rd game of the American League Division Series to the Yankees, they are categorically eliminated from playoff contention. Carl Pavano made a miraculous attempt to give them another breath, but the Yankees just had too much power and the Twins just had too much Nick Punto. Give him credit for getting the double in the first place, but rounding third by so much was just an inexcusable blunder. You can't place all the blame on him, as the entire Twins offense struggled, but that just about sucked every last bit of life from the Twins.

Overall the series went just as many had predicted a would: a sweep for the Yankees. But the Twins did not make it easy. They took the lead in game 1, but simply didn't have enough, having played 11 innings the day before and throwing Brian Duensing opposite C.C. Sabathia. Game 2 was the one the Twins really let get away, as they again were up 2 runs, but this time all the way until the ninth inning. Joe Nathan's struggles against the Yankees continued, though, as he allowed a home run to tie the game, his first with a runner on base all year, before Mark Teixeira won the game in the 11th.

Game 3 was more of the same, as the Twins went up 1-0 on a Joe Mauer RBI single, before the Yankees hit two solo homers to take the lead. They added two more for insurance in the ninth, and the Twins were unable to make up any of the deficit.

So on the year the Twins ended 0-for-10 versus the Yankees. They lost 5 games by one run, and one more on a walk-off home run. Two others were decided by three runs, meaning just two were of the blowout variety. They held a lead in every game at Yankee Stadium, but lost all six of them by a combined 11 runs.

The sweep means they still haven't won a postseason game since 2004 (they were swept by the Athletics in 2006), and haven't won a postseason series since 2002 (lost 4 in a row, 3 to the Yankees). Obviously there are much more painful streaks alive (see Pirates, Pittsburgh), but it's still frustrating.

I was glad to see the crowd at the Metrodome cheering right up to the final out by Brendan Harris as the stadium's storied history came to a close. The Twins had a great showing this year, particularly down the stretch in September, and I was yet again proud to be a Twins fan. Thank you, Minnesota, for making that true.

?

There's times when it's a very good thing this is a blog and not a more formal medium. Because sometimes your team goes out there and totally outplays the best team in the league at home. Because sometimes your team goes out there and plays eight innings of wonderful baseball. Because sometimes your team's pitcher goes out there and pitches like an ace against the most potent lineup in baseball. Because sometimes your team loads the bases with no one out in extra innings. And because sometimes, despite all that, they lose.

And you want to scream profanities at the umpire who missed a call terribly that might have cost your team the game. You want to tell him what an unbelievable idiot he is; how his ONLY FREAKING JOB is to stare at that line and determine whether the ball was to the left or right of it; how you've never seen an umpire ever miss a call like that before; how even the grandmother in the upper deck could tell that he was a total imbecile.

And you want to lambaste Joe Nathan, who couldn't even get one out before he wasted your team's entire effort. And you want to berate Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez for their stunning inability to bring a runner from third with less than two outs. You want to forcefully remind Delmon that he could have grounded into a double play and still given the Twins the lead.

But you also want to cry as your team loses their ninth game in nine tries to the same time. You want to brood for hours as you realize they've lost 28 of their last 31 games at Yankee Stadium. You want to mope around, knowing they just lost their fourth game in walk-off fashion, their fifth game by one run, and that they lead in all six games played at that stadium this year.

You want to take your anger out on everyone else as all of this happens against the team you hate most of all, the team you despise almost as much as you like the Twins, and as you ponder the jeers you'll hear the next day from said fans.

But then you remind yourself that it's just a baseball game--that there are more important things. Sure, you've spent massive amounts of time following them for the last five months and you've blogged endlessly about them, but you just remember that it's only baseball. And it doesn't matter.

Or at least you try to.

2009 ALDS

I've read too much about Game 1 to think I could write anything unique, especially since everyone seems to feel the same way. It went pretty much as expected, with the Twins playing a long, energy-sapping game the day before and getting into New York early that morning, and Brian Duensing pitching against C.C. Sabathia.

The negative, obviously, is that they lost. The positive is that that was the toughest game of the series to win. Not that any of the following ones will be easy, but the odds will certainly be more favorable than they were on Wednesday. Today Nick Blackburn will be pitching for the Twins, and A.J. Burnett for the Yankees. I question why Joe Girardi chose to start Burnett in Game 2 over Andy Pettitte, since he's been a little better than Burnett this year and the Twins have a lefty-heavy lineup.

Meanwhile, Ron Gardenhire should think about inserting Carlos Gomez back into his regular lineup and shifting Jason Kubel back to designated hitter. I didn't realize this myself, but rather read about it at Seth Speaks, but it makes total sense. Jose Morales has come down to earth and Brendan Harris has never been a DH-caliber hitter, meaning there's no good option to fill that spot in the lineup. At this point, it seems like an easy choice; what they would lose offensively in the drop-off from Harris or Morales to Gomez is minimal, but the defensive gain with Gomez in the outfield and Kubel not fielding at all would be tremendous.

That's pretty much all I've got. I'll start rolling out the massive year-in-review items this weekend, but exactly when a lot of the stuff is posted will depend on how the Twins do in the postseason.

Let's hope it has to wait.

It goes on and on and on

The Metrodome had its farewell party on Sunday, but the Twins refuse to close it down. Despite already playing a 163rd game of their regular season, the Twins still decided they hadn't played enough, forcing the play-in game to go extra innings. There were enough thrilling moments to give someone a heart attack, but in the end they pulled out an AL Central Division championship, leaving the Tigers bitterly remembering the 2006 season and their last division title of 22 years ago.

The game had everything. Huge home runs, clutch hits, costly blunders, managerial miscues, costly pitching... it all added up to the most exciting Twins game I've ever been privileged to experience. [For full disclosure, I was alive for the 1991 World Series, but I was just two, and I've only been a really involved fan for about 5 years.]

Now it's on to Yankee Stadium, where the Twins are 3 for their last 29, against a team whom they lost all 7 games during the regular season, with their entire bullpen being used yesterday and Brian Duensing starting game 1. Sure, it looks pretty bad, but that was the case in early September and as late as last Thursday too. And, whatever the case, the fact that they made it to the postseason is special in its own right.

But before I conclude this, I have to look back at the game that was.

It started innocently enough, as the teams were scoreless through the first two innings. In the top of third, though, Scott Baker gave up three runs, including a Miguel Cabrera homer. But Baker settled down after that inning, and the Twins answered immediately with a run in the bottom of the third thanks to an error by Rick Porcello on a pick-off attempt.

The game remained uneventful until the sixth inning, when Jason Kubel hit a solo home run to bring Minnesota within a run. Following a walk to the next batter, Rick Porcello was lifted for Zach Miner. I don't know if it's just me, but I was surprised to see Miner in this game. He seems like a mop-up man to me, but maybe that's just my impression because he gets hit around every time the Twins see him (6.39 ERA, .919 OPS against them in 2009). Regardless, I was giddy.

Sure enough, Orlando Cabrera connected for a home run in the seventh that cleared the right field wall by about 3 millimeters and put the Twins on top 4-3. Again, though, the other team responded, as it would be all night. Having already burned through Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares in the seventh inning, Matt Guerrier stayed in for the 8th, after having gotten a huge out with two runners on in the frame before. Magglio Ordonez--who has been Joe Mauer-like the past two months--smashed a solo homer to lead off the next frame and tie the game.

After getting an out but walking two batters, Guerrier was relieved by Joe Nathan. Nathan did his job, inducing a infield fly and strikeout of Gerald Laird--who made big outs all night long--to end the threat. The bottom of the inning was quick, as the Twins went 1-2-3, which set the stage for a very nerve-wracking ninth inning.

Nathan stayed in for a second inning, but gave up two hits to start it off. Ramon Santiago pushed a excellent bunt down the first base line to get things going, and immediately I was worried. Very recently he did the same thing (I believe in the Twins 7-2 loss last Wednesday) to begin an inning, and the Tigers capitalized and scored a few runs. When Curtis Granderson followed with a single, my heart jumped to my throat. Placido Polanco stepped up to the plate, the second-toughest man to strike out in the Major Leagues this year (7.4 %). Of course Joe Nathan did it, making him look incredibly foolish as he kicked a leg out to avoid being hit, only to see the ball break back over the plate.

Still, a sacrifice fly or a even a slow roller could have put the Tigers up at this crucial juncture, but the Twins got some really good fortune when Magglio Ordonez crushed a ball that was caught by Orlando Cabrera who threw to first and got a gigantic double play. For one of many times last night, I was able to breath a huge sigh of relief.

The bottom of the ninth inning saw the Twins put a man in scoring position with one out, but Cabrera failed to get him in before Joe Mauer was intentionally walked. And up came... Carlos Gomez?! I don't argue with the move, as it was a good time to bring in a defensive replacement when Gardenhire did, but it was enormously disappointing to find him hitting when I had forgotten and thought it would be Jason Kubel. As you know, Gomez grounded out to send the extra game into extra innings.

That's where things got really shaky. Jesse Crain got the first out, hit Aubrey Huff on an 0-2 pitch, and then struck out Ryan Raburn, before Brandon Inge doubled in pinch-runner Don Kelly on a close play at the plate to give the Tigers the lead. Gerald Laird ended the inning with a groundout, but the damage had been done.

Well, damage, but not enough damage. Michael Cuddyer opened the bottom of inning with a looping fly ball to left field, and as I was screaming for it to get down I saw Raburn go into his fateful slide. The ball missed his glove and bounced past him and Curtis Granderson as I began shouting "Go, go, go!' Cuddyer hustled into third base to put the Twins in great position. I cursed out Delmon Young as he grounded out weakly on the first pitch, and Brendan Harris followed him with a walk. That meant it was up to Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto to keep the Twins' season alive.

Tolbert battled in his at bat and sent a bouncing ball up the middle, and I dropped to my knees as I saw Polanco closing in on it for a sure double play; somehow, though, it scooted through and Cuddyer scored to tie the game! Not only that, but pinch runner Alexi Casilla was now on third base still with only one out. Now Nick Punto had a chance to extend the Metrodome's life. And that he did, but by lining into a double play that meant there would be another inning in this play-in game. Raburn tried to atone for his earlier blunder by gunning down Casilla at home on an extremely close play. Casilla had a great slide, but he wouldn't have needed it if he hadn't been so late getting back to tag up. Nonetheless, the game continued.

The eleventh inning featured little excitement, as Crain, Ron Mahay, and Bobby Keppel each got an out in the top half and the Twins went 1-2-3 in the bottom half followed by the Twins going down in order in their half. That left Keppel to face the Tigers in the twelfth inning, the same guy who I had vehemently not wanted to see enter the game when he started warming up with Baker struggling in the third.

With one out, Keppel allowed runners to reach second and third before intentionally walking Raburn to load the bases. He then got Brandon Inge to ground into a force out at home on a great play by Nick Punto. With two outs and the bases still loaded, Keppel fell behind 2-0 and then 3-1 on Gerald Laird. As I struggled to contain myself, screaming angrily about what I would do if he walked in the go-ahead run, Keppel got a called second strike and then a swinging strike from Laird to finish the inning. For Laird, it was yet another big out and a nice capper on his 0-6 night.

In Minnesota's half-inning, Carlos Gomez was again batting instead of Jason Kubel, but this time he answered with a single to left field. As Fernando Rodney was in his fourth inning, I figured it was about time the Twins made Jim Leyland pay for that decision. Michael Cuddyer did his part by advancing Gomez to second, bringing up Delmon with the winning run in scoring position. He didn't get a chance, though, as Rodney gave him an intentional free pass to first base with two of the lightest-hitting players in the game due up: Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert.

Some people think it was a mistake to walk Young, but I wholeheartedly disagree. For the Tigers, the choice was a) pitch to Young and then Casilla with no force or b) pitch to Casilla and Tolbert with a force at second and third. That seems like a no-brainer to me. The .198 hitter then strolled to the plate, and I was reminded of last year against Chicago when he made the final out of the Twins' season, but also of the second game of the year, when he singled in two runs with two outs to give the Twins a 6-5 walk-off victory.

Oh, how similar that second memory was, as Casilla sent a ball bounding between the first and second baseman that, as you could tell immediately, would score Gomez from second and send the Twins into the postseason on the strength of a 6-5 victory over the Tigers. And Casilla got his own personal reward as his average went up to .202, sparing him the ignominy of being below the Mendoza line for the season.

Boston Red Sox: 2007 World Series Champions

As you surely know, the Red Sox completed a sweep of the Colorado Rockies on Sunday night to win their 2nd World Series in the last four years. Jon Lester pitched 5 2/3 innings for the victory in the 4-3 Red Sox win. Mike Lowell was awarded the World Series MVP by going 6-15 with a home run and four RBIs in the fall classic. Overall, it was a very impressive series for the Red Sox and a very disappointing one for the Rockies, after such a great beginning to the postseason. Jonathan Papelbon and Josh Beckett were terrific throughout the postseason and all the Boston starters chipped in with good starts against the Rockies.

After Papelbon's strikeout of Seth Smith to end the game, the room was mixed with jubilation and sadness. Red Sox fans, such as McMatty, were cheering incessantly and jeering "Yankees Suck" towards Yankees fans, such as Generic MCKS, who was so upset he could only utter one word repeatedly: "bad". Yejikim, a major Manny Ramirez fan, was angry that Manny didn't get the MVP, while SheTanya, a resident of Colorado, was grief-stricken and couldn't stop sobbing. What made that especially surprising is that SheTanya barely knows what baseball is; a few days ago I had to explain to her what balls and strikes were. Personally, I had been rooting for the Rockies, if only to give them some needed support here in Red Sox Nation in Massachusetts.

In all, it was a series pretty devoid of excitement for those outside Red Sox Nation and Colorado. Although two games were decided by just a run, a sweep will invariably sweep almost all of the suspense from the World Series. Hopefully, next year it will be the Twins playing so I will be enthusiastically watching no matter what.

As a final note, Alex Rodriguez has announced that he will opt out of the remainder of his contract and will become a free agent. Recently, reports had surfaced that the Yankees would offer him a 5 year, $150 million deal, but it sounded like that would only be before he opted out. Peter Gammons commented on the timing of Rodriguez's announcement, saying that it was selfish and he was just looking to take some attention from the Red Sox, specifically "Pedroia and Jon Lester", on such a special day. It was very interesting to hear that from such a respected baseball analyst. Either way, the countdown has begun until A-Rod's, and everyone else's, free agency starts: 15 days remain.

Once again, congratulations to the Red Sox on their World Series championship!

2008 Third Base Class

Boston won Game 2 behind another strong starting pitching performance, this time from Curt Schilling. The Rockies garnered five hits... and four of them were from Matt Holliday. Hard to win when only one person on the team can get on base. Obviously, though, this was a much closer contest than on Wednesday night, as Ubaldo Jimenez gave up two runs to take the loss in a 2-1 defeat. Hopefully the fortunes will turn now that the teams are heading to Coors Field, because I would really like to see a competitive series.

With the requisite World Series note out of the way, it's time to focus on the players who will become free agents once it ends. Specifically, I will take a look at the third basemen and leftfielders (which would leave Jason Kubel as the Designated Hitter) who will be available in order to see which ones are a possibility for the Twins to sign this off-season. Second base could also be considered a position of need, but since it seems as if the Twins are content with Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla, I'm not going to address that situation.

Today, I'll look at the third basemen. There are many names that can be thrown out at first glance, both because they are old and not good: Geoff Blum, Tony Batista, Russell Branyan, Jeff Cirillo, Greg Norton (who has an option anyway), and Abraham Nunez (of the Phillies). It may seem unnecessary to even mention these players, but then think of who the Twins have signed in the past (it actually includes two of those players). Better players available would include Aaron Boone, Corey Koskie, or Mike Lamb. Koskie has an option the Brewers have indicated they will not exercise, but both Boone and Koskie are coming off serious injuries. Either of them would be a risk of simply being another Jeff Cirillo or, even worse, another Tony Batista. Therefore, I don't advocate signing either. Lamb is likely to sign a deal with the Astros after finishing his years of arbitration, so that takes care of those three. In reality, the Twins would need to look towards the next level up (in performance and price), which really means either Pedro Feliz or Mike Lowell. Either of these players would command more than the Twins have been willing to pay in the past, but maybe Bill Smith will bring a different attitude toward signing free agents. I think Feliz will get more than he is worth after four straight years of 20+ home runs. He isn't a very good fielder, despite a marked improvement over 2006, and his career on base percentage is .288, including a .290 mark this past year. Lowell, therefore, would be more worth the money. Granted, he will cost more than Feliz, but he is also a significantly better player, including being one of the best defenders at the hot corner.

In conclusion, there are not many options at third base. I would be okay with the Twins signing Koskie if it was on the cheap and they were very quick to get rid of (or at least bench) him if he didn't perform. I think the price tag for Feliz will be too high for a player of his caliber, but Mike Lowell would be a good, albeit expensive, option. Depending on what other moves the Twins make with regard to their costs, though, they may be able to afford that move.

What's that? I forgot one player likely to be a free agent? Which would be the simple solution? Oh, right! Let's sign Alex Rodriguez to a 5-year, $120 million deal and give him part ownership.

Joes and Bros

The first game of the World Series was played yesterday, as Josh Beckett cruised to another win and the Red Sox bats set a few World Series records in a 13-1 victory over Colorado. Dustin Pedroia led the game off with a first pitch home run and the Red Sox never looked back.

But this post will focus on the Twins. There were a few small pieces of news picked up in the last day or two.

• The Twins have all but picked up Joe Nathan's option for the 2008 season; apparently, both sides are just waiting for paperwork to make it official. There's not much to this as I think it was pretty much a unanimous decision among everyone that his option should be picked up.
• As it turns out, Joe Mauer will not be having surgery for his hernia. He will most likely take a couple of weeks off before resuming any sort of training program, but he will not need surgery.
• Speaking of Joe Mauer, his brother, Jack Mauer, was recently named the manager of the GCL Twins. He had already spent a few previous years working as a coach for the GCL affiliate.

Be sure to check back for updates on the World Series and afterwards, which marks the real start of the offseason.

Red Sox Advance

Down 3-1, the Red Sox won the last three games against the Indians to take the series and head on to the World Series, where they will face the Colorado Rockies who have been idle for the last six days. The first game will be Wednesday, October 24th, meaning the Rockies will have been resting for more than a week. Will that have an impact on their incredible hot streak? The only way to know will be to watch the game.

Meanwhile, Game 7 was quite interesting. The Red Sox got off to a good start, scoring a run in each of the first three innings, but it was still disappointing, as three double plays prevented them from getting much more. They blew the game open in the 8th inning though, putting six runs on the board to extend their lead to 11-2. A few notes about the game:

• Josh Beckett won the ALCS Most Valuable Player award. He started and won both Game 1 and Game 5, allowing just three runs, nine hits, and one walk in 14 innings. He also had 18 strikeouts in his two appearances.
• Towards the end of the game, FOX put a graphic on the screen about Kenny Lofton, and how close he's been to a World Series title without actually getting one. Three times he's been one win away from the World Series and once from the title itself: he was on the Giants when they were up 3-2 in the World Series in 2002; he was on the Cubs when they were up 3-1 on the Marlins before Steve Bartman, and poor Cubs play, intervened; he was on the Yankees during their historic collapse against the Red Sox in 2004; and now he was up 3-1 with the Indians. Perhaps he'll get another chance next year.
• One of the culprits, although certainly not the only one, to blame for the Indians demise has to be Travis Hafner. He was just 4-27 in the series, and went 1 for his last 18 with 11 strikeouts. But I can't talk about reasons why the Indians lost and not mention C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. They were just plain bad in the series. Very bad.
• When the Red Sox were up 3-2, I was thinking about what it would take for Eric Gagne to get into the game. Would it take a 25-inning game? Or sudden vomiting spells from all the other Red Sox pitchers? Would Terry Francona have put himself in to pitch before Gagne? Even when the Red Sox went up 11-2, I'm not sure Gagne could have been trusted with the ball.
• Dustin Pedroia had a fantastic game, going 3-5 with 5 RBIs and 3 runs. In the 7th inning he hit a 2-run homer to stretch the lead to 3, and in the 8th inning he hit a 3-run double to push the lead to 7.
• The Indians were the victim of one bad call (Kenny Lofton being ruled out at second base on a throw by Manny Ramirez) and one bad stop sign (Kenny Lofton being held up at third base when Manny Ramirez was still about 25 feet from the ball), but their defense really did them in. Jhonny Peralta mishandled a ball in the first, Casey Blake booted a ball in the seventh, and then Peralta and Blake allowed a ball to drop when they bumped into each other in the eighth.
• Speaking of that play, it seemed like that area was the Bermuda Triangle of the game. When Julio Lugo and Ramirez went to catch a ball there, it glanced off Lugo's glove and fell to the ground. Of course, while the Red Sox capitalized with a home run when the Indians let it drop, the Indians held up Lofton at third on the subsequent single and then grounded into an inning-ending double play.
• After the game, Jonathan Papelbon was asked if he had another dance planned to follow the one he performed upon the Red Sox's clinching of their divison (which happened against the Twins). Unfortunately, he said he did. If you didn't see the Twins game directly after the Red Sox clinched, the announcers showed and commented on the clip of Papelbon dancing approximately 63 times, and I simply found it annoying at best and disturbing at worst. If you really must see it, this is it. So now you know why I don't care to see the next one.

So it's Red Sox versus Rockies for the World Series title. I'll take the Rockies... Red Sox, actually I'll take the... Rockies in seven games. It's pretty much just a guess, but I did pick both the Championship Series correctly, and got the number of games right for the ALCS, so who knows?

News and Notes From Everywhere

As the Rockies have jumped out to a 3-0 lead and the Red Sox and Indians are knotted at one game apiece, I figured it was time for an update on the two series and various other things going on in the sports world.

• The sole Minnesota Twins note is that Kevin Slowey won Triple-A Pitcher of the Year honors. He earned the award by going 10-5 in 20 starts, while leading the International League in complete games (5), ERA (1.89), and WHIP (0.96). He also posted a 107 to 18 strikeout to walk ratio and allowed only four home runs in 133 2/3 innings.


• As mentioned before, Arizona faces an insurmountable 3-0 deficit in the NLCS against Colorado. Colorado hasn't been totally dominant, but as they have been doing for the last month, the Rockies have found a way to come out on top. So far, it has been their pitching that has handcuffed the Diamondbacks, giving up just four runs in the first three games and inducing rally-killing double play balls, along with more timely hitting, most notably Yorvit Torrealba's two-out three-run homer yesterday.


• Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Indians are in a much tighter situation. In Game 1, it was a matchup of two Cy Young favorites, but only one looked close to being so. Beckett pitched six solid innings while Sabathia was horrible, giving up 8 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. He has now walked 11 in 9 1/3 innings after leading the majors in K/BB and placing third in BB/9 during the regular season. The second game featured a battle to the end... or almost. The Indians scored seven runs in the 11th inning to win 13-6, as Eric Gagne struggled again and took the loss.


• David Ortiz has been nothing short of spectacular this postseason. After Sunday's game, he was batting .615 (8-13) with nine walks against one strikeout, a .783 OBP, and a 1.154 slugging percentage. He's 1-2 today with a double as I type this, although the Red Sox are down 4-0.


• Also of note to the Boston area especially, the New England Patriots are now 6-0. Tom Brady continued his sheer dominance by throwing for 388 yards and 5 touchdowns, which kept him on pace to break the single season record for touchdowns and quarterback rating. Whether you like them or hate them, you have to admire just how good a team they are (though, if you ask someone who actually hates them, such as Twin #2, you'll probably get a different response). I don't think I've seen a team this masterful since I started following football.


• LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and Devin Hester all had great individual days. LT looks like the running back he's been in the past couple of years, running all over the Oakland Raiders and tying his career high with four touchdowns. Peterson torched the suddenly lackluster Bears defense with 224 rushing yards and three touchdowns, two of 60+ yards. And Hester countered with a punt return touchdown and an 81-yard receiving TD in the losing effort.


• As quarterbacks continue to drop like flies, some step up and others look atrocious. Vinny Testaverde qualifies as the former, leading Carolina to a victory against Arizona, who had their own issues. Tim Rattay, replacing an injured Kurt Warner in the first quarter, fell into the latter category by throwing three picks and no touchdowns. But St. Louis's Gus Frerotte was even worse; he threw five picks against zero touchdowns. And no, he was no Tony Romo-- they lost 22-3.


• In terms of rankings, college football has become a complete mess this season. Yet again, the #1 team lost this week, this time LSU to Kentucky, 43-37. Ohio State has now moved up to that ranking, while South Florida--South Florida???--has taken over the #2 spot.

And that about wraps up this post, except for one final Twins note. The Arizona Fall League opened its season recently, and the Twins have some minor leaguers worth paying attention to. Hopefully we'll see some good winter ball from the prospects.

Divisional Series Wrap-Up

Wow. That was fast. Three sweeps and one four-game series means we have two days without baseball before the NLCS begins on Thursday, where two NL West teams will meet for the first time. The ALCS starts on Friday when Cleveland heads to Boston to face the Red Sox. Hopefully these two series will prove to be a little more competitive, because, despite some exciting games, none of the four series even sniffed the thrill of the Rockies-Padres game last Monday.


Red Sox defeat Angels 3-0
This one was never really close, as Red Sox pitching dominated the Angels to the tune of 4 runs in 3 games. Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling were particularly impressive, combining for 16 shutout innings. The bullpen also threw 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball and looks stacked. With Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, and the less-renowned Manny Delcarmen, the Red Sox have three relievers who can simply shut the door. Along with Javier Lopez, they combined to shut down the Angels after Matsuzaka’s uninspiring start in Game 2, and allowed Boston to come back from their only deficit (3-2) and win on a walk-off homer in the ninth by Manny Ramirez. And then there’s Eric Gagne too, who has been disappointing so far, but still could be a factor (I’m still confused, however, about why the Red Sox traded so much for him, when their bullpen was already so good).


Indians defeat Yankees 3-1
Ah, the Yankees. It’s now three times in a row they’ve been eliminated in the first round and there seem to be major changes looming on the horizon. George Steinbrenner has indicated that Joe Torre will be gone, and there are many more players who may follow. Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte might retire, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada have said they want to test the free agent market, and Alex Rodriguez may opt out of his contract. Those are some big names, including a few future hall-of-famers, so the Yankees may be a completely different team next year.

This time around, Chien-Ming Wang almost single-handedly lost them the series, going 0-2 by giving up 14 hits, 4 walks, and 12 runs (all earned) in just 5 2/3 innings. If you think that’s an exaggeration, consider that he gave up half of all the runs the Yankees allowed. Now, it may be a little harsh to blame it solely on Wang; for one, the Indians did have very good situational hitting, especially compared to the Yankees. To be more detailed, the Yankees hit six home runs in the games they lost, all with nobody on base. That means that in the three losses, 75% of their runs came on home runs, indicating that: 1) the Yankees relied on the home run too much, and 2) the Yankees could not get hits with men on base, whether it was a home run or not.


Diamondbacks defeat Cubs 3-0
The lovable losers were overmatched entirely by the Diamondbacks. A lot of people have noted that Arizona has more runs allowed on the season than they have scored (including myself), but I saw only positives from this series with the Cubs. They out-homered Chicago 6-1, they were able to put down bunts when they had to, and they turned four double plays in the final game of the series. And they have accomplished all of this after finishing tied for last in their division in 2006 and with four of their top six players (in terms of at bats) being in their first or second full year.


Rockies defeat Phillies 3-0
The Rockies rode their torrid streak at the end of the regular season right into their divisional series with Philadelphia. Both teams had made remarkable runs to get into the playoffs, but it was the Rockies who proved to be superior. Manny Corpas picked up a save in each game of the series, allowing two hits and no runs in 3 1/3 innings. He had Ryan Howard’s number all series, as Howard watched strike three go by from Corpas in each game. Yet again, it was pitching that enabled the Rockies to sweep, along with the Red Sox and Diamondbacks. When you allow just eight runs in three games (which the Rockies did), it makes it substantially easier to win those same games.


As for the Championship Series, here are my picks:
-Red Sox defeat Indians, 4-3.
-Rockies defeat Diamondbacks, 4-2.