So Twin #2 asked me earlier today for advice on a trade he was offered in a fantasy baseball league. I figured, if I'm going to spend a lot of time properly analyzing it, I might as well post it here. And maybe I'll do this with other trades in the near future. Or maybe not. You know me, I'm fairly unreliable.
Type: Head-to-Head
Number of Teams: 12
Categories: Standard 5 x 5 (AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB; W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)
Rosters: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 4xOF, UTIL; 3xSP, 3xRP, 3xP; 5 Bench, 1 DL
Max Innings: None
Keeper Style: None
Joe Nathan's Hot Dog's (JN) trades 1B Adam Dunn, OF Colby Rasmus, OF Drew Stubbs, SP Jhoulys Chacin to Seattle Slew (SS) for 1B/2B/3B/OF Michael Cuddyer, OF Shin-Soo Choo, SP Anibal Sanchez, SP Matt Garza
My approach to evaluating trades is twofold: 1) is the value changing hands in my favor (or at least equivalent)? and 2) does what I receive provide an upgrade over the drop-off that results from the players I am trading away? If the answer to question 1 is no, I could pursue a different trade that would satisfy question 2 while also not forcing me to lose overall value. If the answer to question 2 is no, then there's really no point in doing the trade. I may be getting more value, but I'm not actually helping my team. Of course if you're then going to trade the new player(s) in a move that will improve your lineup, that's a different situation; however, I don't usually like to count on that in the fickle trading environment that is fantasy sports.
To start, I always like to simplify the trade and break it down piece-by-piece. In this case we've got individual swaps of Dunn for Cuddyer, Rasmus for Choo, Stubbs for Garza, and Chacin for Sanchez. Obviously there are different ways to break up this trade, but that's how I'll be looking at it.
Everyone is familiar with Dunn's struggles, as he's threatening to break the all-time record for lowest batting average for hitter who qualifies for the batting title. Right now he's at .166, leaving significant space between him and Rob Deer's record-setting .179 average in 1991. The question of course is what will happen going forward. Prior to this season, he was among the most consistent fantasy players, hitting between 38 and 40 homers each of the last six seasons and driving in between 92 and 105 runs each of the last seven seasons. It's hard to say why it's happened, as his walk rate is similar and his batted ball profile is largely the same, save for an uptick in infield fly balls. Regardless, the danger is that his jaw-droppingly bad numbers will force him to the bench, which actually just might be a plus for fantasy owners. When a player's owners would benefit from him being benched, I'm not looking to acquire him.
But how much of an upgrade is Cuddyer? His positional versatility is a big plus, especially given he can play at the wasteland that is third base this year. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities going forward as he's locked into the fourth spot in the lineup with a healthy Joe Mauer getting on base in front of him, along with the recent return of Denard Span to the top of the batting order. If Justin Morneau ever comes back, that would only improve his situation. The batting average will probably come down a tad, perhaps around .280 for the rest of the season, but otherwise the production is largely for real. Getting Cuddyer for Dunn is a huge win for JN.
The Rasmus-for-Choo swap could be beneficial to both teams. As SS is in tight competition for a playoff spot and every game is crucial, it would do him well to get some immediate value for Choo. JN, on the other hand, stands in first place and will almost assuredly make the playoffs, meaning he can afford to carry an additional injured player on his roster. The issues are whether Choo will play any better than he did at the beginning of the season, prior to his injury, and whether Rasmus's new home in Toronto will change his performance for the better.
Honestly, I'm not especially confident about either player, but Rasmus at least is healthy. I'm not sure I buy the change-of-scenery argument, but I do buy an improved lineup position (he's hit number two in every game with the Blue Jays) and a better home park for hitters. I can see a moderate improvement in his numbers across the board, especially in batting average where he's been unlucky anyways. Choo, meanwhile, really struggled this season after two very good years, and admitted some of it was mental as a result of the DUI he was charged with. I don't think, given those factors, that he'll pick up where he left off in 2010; rather I see him playing fairly similarly to Rasmus except with a few more steals the rest of the way. That means this part of the trade favors SS, since Choo will not be playing for at least 2 more weeks.
As for the starting pitcher trade, this obviously depends on who you like--I would rather have Sanchez. Chacin's bouts with wildness make him too susceptible to disastrous outings, and I think his WHIP (1.18) is unsustainably low, given the amount of free passes he hands out. His FIP (4.42) also indicates his ERA (3.38) has had similar good fortune, but I'm more concerned about his WHIP. His strikeouts are solid and could even rise closer to last year's mark, but the other categories appear bound to decline. Sanchez's ERA (3.74) and WHIP (1.26) are currently higher than Chacin's, but I think they are much more stable. His 2010 season was quite similar, lending credence to that argument. His career K/9 of 7.43 makes me skeptical of his current rate (9.37) but otherwise I'd be happy to have Sanchez.
I always find pitcher-for-hitter swaps the most difficult to analyze, and that's why I've left the Stubbs-for-Garza part of the deal for last. I think Garza is very comparable to Sanchez, as he has a 3.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a very good strikeout rate (9.02) that's above his career rate. Despite the fact that he pitches for a Cubs team that figures to make wins hard to come by over the final two months, I like Garza a little more. His ERA could come down somewhat and his strikeout rate is more likely to stay that high, given that he was more of a strikeout pitcher in the minors and that his career Major League rate was accumulated in the American League.
Stubbs is a good fantasy player whose low average holds him back. He'll provide more steals and runs than either Choo or Rasmus, but in terms of his home run and RBI outlook he's fairly similar. Rasmus, and certainly Choo, might give your team positive contributions in average, whereas Stubbs is pretty assuredly going to hit in the .250 range. In a vacuum, I'd take Stubbs over Garza because of the prevalence of good pitchers this season.
Now that we know how each aspect of the trade rates individually, it's time to consider them together and then within the context of each team's roster. JN turns Dunn into Cuddyer, a vast improvement, and solidly upgrades his starting pitching from Chacin to Sanchez. He also takes a risk, and a small downgrade, by giving up Rasmus for the injured Choo and swaps Drew Stubbs for Matt Garza, additionally bolstering his pitching. In terms of pure value, it seems like JN is making off better, largely because he is able to get a big improvement on offense (Cuddyer over Dunn) without really losing much in the other swaps.
As for how this fits with each team, it is reasonably sensible for both, but much better for JN. JN is first or second in every batting category, except for batting average where he is below average, but is not doing as well in the pitching categories. Therefore grabbing two good pitchers (Garza and Sanchez) while only giving up one solid one (Chacin) makes a lot of sense. Trading Stubbs, Rasmus, and Dunn likely won't have too much of an impact because JN's offense is already very strong. Rasmus didn't start normally anyways and Dunn will be replaced by the superior Cuddyer, but there will be a downgrade when Danny Espinosa slides into the lineup to replace Stubbs. All in all, there's not much, if any, value lost on offense, and when you consider the possibility that Choo comes back and plays like he did the previous two seasons, this trade seems like a no-brainer for JN.
Meanwhile, SS ranks second-to-last in steals and first in batting average; thus the addition of Stubbs is a nice fit, since he needs help in steals and can handle the underwhelming average. Getting Rasmus is also a good move since that means both Casey McGehee and Chris Heisey, with his inconsistent playing time, can be pushed to the bench. SS needs help in wins, ERA, and WHIP, too, though, and this trade weakens him in all three categories.
The biggest problem, however, is that SS will have to go shopping in the free agency pool for a second baseman to replace Cuddyer. He has players he shouldn't hesitate to drop (McGehee for instance), but the options simply are not very appealing. The loss in pitching can be made up for with the additions of Stubbs and Rasmus, but I just can't overlook the fact that Dunn would have to actually do something for this trade to be a good one for SS. I'm not counting on that, and unless SS is, I don't think this is a trade he should do. Perhaps swapping Espinosa in for Dunn makes this trade more viable, as that would give SS a second baseman while not changing the outlook for JN all that much--Dunn (or someone else) would simply occupy the utility spot in place of Espinosa presumably until Choo came off the disabled list.
Showing posts with label matt garza. Show all posts
Showing posts with label matt garza. Show all posts
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Thursday, July 23, 2009
GM Analysis: Trades
On September 14, 2007, Twin #1 made the inaugural post on this blog. About 12 hours earlier, Terry Ryan had announced his resignation from the general manager position that he held since the early 1990s. The Twins announced that his successor would be his former right-hand man, assistant GM Bill Smith. In his first offseason, Smith guided the Twins through tough situations with Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. The team finished his first season at the helm in a tie for first place, but missed the playoffs when they lost the memorable one-game playoff against the White Sox. The following winter was much quieter than his first, with the biggest move being the signing of Joe Crede in late February. With the trade deadline fast approaching, I thought now would be a good time to take a more detailed look at Smith's (mostly underwhelming) work thus far.
November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.
November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.
January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.
August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.
So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.
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November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.
November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.
January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.
August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.
So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.
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Thursday, July 3, 2008
Offseason Trade Review
On November 28th, 2007, LaVelle E. Neal III reported a potential blockbuster trade between the Twins and the newly-renamed Rays. A day earlier, I had posted about some trade chatter involving the same two teams and Boof Bonser, but what actually occured was much different. The original trade was reported to be OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris, and OF Jason Pridie to the Twins in exchange for SP Matt Garza, RP Juan Rincon, and SS Jason Bartlett. At the end of the day, some lingering injury concerns had forced Rincon out of the deal and pitching prospect Eduardo Morlan into the deal before it became official. At the time, many Twins fans were excited to get Young, who was immediately expected to replace Torii Hunter's bat and hit 30-40 home runs. Most people had no problem seeing Garza leave if it was in exchange for such a great offensive talent, especially with the supposed clashes that Garza had with the Twins' coaching staff. At the time, I wrote that "I liked Garza, but getting Young back for him is a great deal." Garza's clashes seemingly have continued, as evidenced by his on-field argument with catcher Dionner Navarro, but his results have made fans willing to overlook his faults. Garza has a 3.47 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 90.7 innings. His strikeouts are down so far this season, but he still has 2:1 K:BB ratio and has been especially excellent recently, throwing 29 innings in his last 4 starts while giving up 16 hits and 5 earned runs, walking 4, and striking out 24 (including a 1-hit, 10 K complete game).
Delmon Young, on the other hand, has a very dissapointing overall line of .284/.332/.385, but there are still some promising things underneath that underwhelming line. To start, Young's walk rate, and consequently his OBP, have significantly improved from last year, going from a .028 IsoD to a .048 IsoD. Also, he has heated up since the calendar turned to June, as his line since June 1 sits at .330/.354/.495 in 96 plate appearances. His walk rate was way down in June, but that could be due to a small sample size, just as his good numbers could be. The numbers show that he has been improving recently, but really all we know is that he was crowned as the next Frank Robinson way too soon, and then written off way too early after his early season slump.
The other four players in the deal have all underperformed for their new teams thus far. Jason Bartlett was placed on the DL today after struggling as the Rays' starting shortstop throughout the first half of the season. With an atrocious .256/.299/.293 batting line, you certainly can't give any of the credit for the Rays' turnaround to this former Twin. He has stolen 18 bases at an 86% success rate and his range as usual has been excellent, but there's really no excuse for hitting like he has unless you're Ozzie Smith. Harris, on the other hand, has been the only Twins' middle infielder to stay on the Major League roster the entire season, with Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Adam Everett all hitting the DL and Casilla spending time in Rochester. Of course, Harris has used that opportunity to hit only a little better than Bartlett while playing much worse defense. For some reason, people have been under the impression that Harris has played better since moving to shortstop, but his OPS there is actually 63 points lower there than at second base. Also, his OPS in June was only .649, though that was 40 points higher than in May.
The final two pieces of the deal were two minor leaguers, Jason Pridie and Eduardo Morlan. After putting up his first decent year in the minors since 2004 last year, Pridie has returned to the ways of a career .742 OPS minor leaguer. He has hit .235/.272/.361 with 5 homers and 16 stolen bases in 84 games at Rochester. His counterpart in a sense, Morlan, has fared no better, though for a different reason. Morlan, who struck out 99 in 69.2 innings in 2007, threw only 14.2 mediocre innings at AA this season before being placed on the DL with an injury.
All in all, it is still too early to give answer the question of who got the better end of the deal. However, it is still clear that the stars of the deal were Garza and Young, as the other four players do their best to show that they are not major league caliber players. Despite the fact that Garza has had the much better results thus far this season, there is still plenty of time for Young to prove that he was worthy of his billing as the top prospect in baseball a couple years back.
Delmon Young, on the other hand, has a very dissapointing overall line of .284/.332/.385, but there are still some promising things underneath that underwhelming line. To start, Young's walk rate, and consequently his OBP, have significantly improved from last year, going from a .028 IsoD to a .048 IsoD. Also, he has heated up since the calendar turned to June, as his line since June 1 sits at .330/.354/.495 in 96 plate appearances. His walk rate was way down in June, but that could be due to a small sample size, just as his good numbers could be. The numbers show that he has been improving recently, but really all we know is that he was crowned as the next Frank Robinson way too soon, and then written off way too early after his early season slump.
The other four players in the deal have all underperformed for their new teams thus far. Jason Bartlett was placed on the DL today after struggling as the Rays' starting shortstop throughout the first half of the season. With an atrocious .256/.299/.293 batting line, you certainly can't give any of the credit for the Rays' turnaround to this former Twin. He has stolen 18 bases at an 86% success rate and his range as usual has been excellent, but there's really no excuse for hitting like he has unless you're Ozzie Smith. Harris, on the other hand, has been the only Twins' middle infielder to stay on the Major League roster the entire season, with Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Adam Everett all hitting the DL and Casilla spending time in Rochester. Of course, Harris has used that opportunity to hit only a little better than Bartlett while playing much worse defense. For some reason, people have been under the impression that Harris has played better since moving to shortstop, but his OPS there is actually 63 points lower there than at second base. Also, his OPS in June was only .649, though that was 40 points higher than in May.
The final two pieces of the deal were two minor leaguers, Jason Pridie and Eduardo Morlan. After putting up his first decent year in the minors since 2004 last year, Pridie has returned to the ways of a career .742 OPS minor leaguer. He has hit .235/.272/.361 with 5 homers and 16 stolen bases in 84 games at Rochester. His counterpart in a sense, Morlan, has fared no better, though for a different reason. Morlan, who struck out 99 in 69.2 innings in 2007, threw only 14.2 mediocre innings at AA this season before being placed on the DL with an injury.
All in all, it is still too early to give answer the question of who got the better end of the deal. However, it is still clear that the stars of the deal were Garza and Young, as the other four players do their best to show that they are not major league caliber players. Despite the fact that Garza has had the much better results thus far this season, there is still plenty of time for Young to prove that he was worthy of his billing as the top prospect in baseball a couple years back.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Delmon Young a Twin?
LaVelle E. Neal III is reporting that the Twins and Rays are close to a deal which would send RHP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett, and RHP Juan Rincon to the Rays for OF Delmon Young, INF Brendan Harris, and OF Jason Pridie. I'll have more on the deal when/if it becomes official, but at first glance I like this deal. Delmon Young is the young hitter the Twins need, a 22 year old with tons of upside. He's played a little centerfield in the majors, but I'm not sure how well it suits him as he's been mainly a corner outfielder. I liked Garza, but getting Young back for him is a great deal. I also like Bartlett, but a swap of him for Harris (who has played short but I have read is better suited at 2nd) is at least a wash. Harris slugged .434 last year in the majors and is a year younger than Bartlett. Rincon lost his role with the Twins in 2007 and they have better relievers for late-inning situations. Pridie is 23 and was taken by the Twins in the Rule V draft at one point (I'm not sure why he didn't play with the Twins), and looks a solid centerfield prospect who could step in next year. All in all, this is what we as Twins fans have been asking for: trade some of the young pitching for young hitters.
As for the Santana deal, all this does is cement the fact that the Twins need an MLB-ready pitcher in return. Yesterday, I advocated a trade of young pitchers for young hitters if the Twins got someone like Phil Hughes for Santana, and now it is (possibly) just being done in the reverse order. One thing is clear though: this team is not going to be silent like it has in the past couple offseasons, and whether that is because of the new GM or the situation the Twins are in, it is a great thing!
UPDATE 10:34 PM 11/28: Apparently, the Rays either decided they didn't want Rincon or some sort of medical concerns with his elbow prevented his being traded. The deal is now officially, but unfortunately the Twins had to give up RP Eduardo Morlan instead of Rincon. That significantly lessens my excitement for this trade. I don't necessarily feel that it was a bad deal now, but Morlan is a good prospect while Rincon is going to be a relatively expensive option out of the bullpen next year. Hopefully the Twins can still trade Rincon and get some spare parts for him, though this medical concern may render that impossible.
As for the Santana deal, all this does is cement the fact that the Twins need an MLB-ready pitcher in return. Yesterday, I advocated a trade of young pitchers for young hitters if the Twins got someone like Phil Hughes for Santana, and now it is (possibly) just being done in the reverse order. One thing is clear though: this team is not going to be silent like it has in the past couple offseasons, and whether that is because of the new GM or the situation the Twins are in, it is a great thing!
UPDATE 10:34 PM 11/28: Apparently, the Rays either decided they didn't want Rincon or some sort of medical concerns with his elbow prevented his being traded. The deal is now officially, but unfortunately the Twins had to give up RP Eduardo Morlan instead of Rincon. That significantly lessens my excitement for this trade. I don't necessarily feel that it was a bad deal now, but Morlan is a good prospect while Rincon is going to be a relatively expensive option out of the bullpen next year. Hopefully the Twins can still trade Rincon and get some spare parts for him, though this medical concern may render that impossible.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Going for the Sweep
After going 3-10 in their previous thirteen games before this series, it has been nice to see the Twins take the first two games of this series as they move closer to (hopefully) finishing the season over .500. Today's game will be a match-up between Matt Garza (3-6, 3.93) and Vicente Padilla (6-9, 5.77). Padilla only recently managed to get his ERA down under 6.00, so hopefully the Twins' offense will have a good day. Garza, meanwhile, has struggled a bit lately, having not pitched six innings in a game since August 14th, while giving up 25 runs (19 earned), 36 hits and 13 walks in 22 1/3 innings over those five starts. His ERA on the season remains under 4.00 though, as a testament to his incredible start to the season.
On another note, Justin Morneau has continued his huge second-half slump by going 0-14 over the last four games. After going 2-3 in a game against the Royals on July 30th, Morneau's line for the year stood at .300/.367/.580. Since then, he has hit to the tune of a .214 batting average and .329 slugging percentage. I don't know what has been wrong with Morneau in the second half, but two home runs in a month and a half and an OPS more than 100 points worse than Nick Punto's in September certainly is not the type of production that we all expect from him (of course, Morneau didn't have an OPS of .365 in August).
On another note, Justin Morneau has continued his huge second-half slump by going 0-14 over the last four games. After going 2-3 in a game against the Royals on July 30th, Morneau's line for the year stood at .300/.367/.580. Since then, he has hit to the tune of a .214 batting average and .329 slugging percentage. I don't know what has been wrong with Morneau in the second half, but two home runs in a month and a half and an OPS more than 100 points worse than Nick Punto's in September certainly is not the type of production that we all expect from him (of course, Morneau didn't have an OPS of .365 in August).
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