The big news out of Minnesota is, of course, that Carlos Gomez was traded for J.J. Hardy. Gomez was a personal favorite of mine, and I even sponsored him on Baseball-Reference, so I'm sad to see him go on that level. On the level of what's best for the Twins as a baseball team, I'm very happy to see them acquire J.J. Hardy. I'm sure you've already read extensively about what he's a good pickup, so I won't go into detail. While this does mean that Delmon Young will be playing full-time in the outfield, I think it's still a positive because of the great defense that Hardy brings to the shortstop position and the offensive potential he has. For a position that has been a huge headache over the past few years, that's a very nice combination.
The other news, which is far less surprising, is that the Twins exercised Michael Cuddyer's extension for 2010 and 2011. He'll make $19 million over the two seasons and confirms the Twins' outfield in their inaugural season in Target Field will, in all likelihood, be Cuddyer-Denard Span-Young.
Showing posts with label carlos gomez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label carlos gomez. Show all posts
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Friday, July 31, 2009
Proud sponsor of Carlos Gomez!
I am happy to announce that Twins on Twins is now the sponsor of Carlos Gomez's page at Baseball-Reference.com! From now until August 4th of next year (yeah, I thought it'd be exactly one year too), we will proudly display our website on his page.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
GM Analysis: Trades
On September 14, 2007, Twin #1 made the inaugural post on this blog. About 12 hours earlier, Terry Ryan had announced his resignation from the general manager position that he held since the early 1990s. The Twins announced that his successor would be his former right-hand man, assistant GM Bill Smith. In his first offseason, Smith guided the Twins through tough situations with Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. The team finished his first season at the helm in a tie for first place, but missed the playoffs when they lost the memorable one-game playoff against the White Sox. The following winter was much quieter than his first, with the biggest move being the signing of Joe Crede in late February. With the trade deadline fast approaching, I thought now would be a good time to take a more detailed look at Smith's (mostly underwhelming) work thus far.
November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.
November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.
January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.
August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.
So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.
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November 13, 2007: Traded PTBNL (Doug Deeds) for Craig Monroe.
The trade in this case was not bad, as the now 28 year old Deeds was at the time and still is a longshot to be a contributor to a major league team. However, the acquisition of Monroe in an effort to increase the Twins' righthanded power was misguided. At the time I thought Monroe could be a good, albeit overpriced, bat off the bench. He certainly turned out to be overpriced, but unfortunately he was not good either. He produced -0.6 WAR in only 179 plate appearances before being designated for assignment on August 1st. This was not a disastrous move, but paying $3.8 million for that kind of production was certainly not a good one.
November 28, 2007: Traded Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
This trade has pretty much been a disaster for Smith. At the time, Young was being called by some the next Frank Robinson and Smith was being praised for finally taking a risk and trading some pitching for hitting. Since then, though, everyone has found out that trading for Young does not really count as trading for hitting. Or defense. Or any other measurable baseball skill. Young doesn't walk or hit for power, all while playing atrocious defense in a corner outfield spot. Add it all up, and he's been worth a staggering -$7.4 million to the Twins in his year and a half with the team, and he hasn't shown any signs of improvement either. After a career year between AA and AAA, Pridie has fallen back to earth in his time in the Twins' system. He has gotten a couple of calls to the Twins, but has pretty much been a nonfactor in the trade with 6 plate appearances in 11 games. At this point, it seems that's his future with the Twins: AAA player ready to be called upon when they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Harris is the one player the Twins acquired in this trade that has actually provided positive value. He hasn't produced the way he did for Tampa in 2007 (.341 wOBA, 2.1 WAR), but he's been a serviceable middle infielder for the past couple seasons. The players the Twins traded haven't been as unsuccessful. Bartlett was already a valuable player because of his defense at short, and this season he has .912 OPS for the Rays (flukey, yes, but he's still done it). Garza has not yet become the ace that he was expected to, but he has still been a productive pitcher for the Rays, throwing over 300 innings with about a 4.2 FIP so far for his new team. Morlan was taken in the Rule V draft, but was eventually returned to the Rays and is in his 2nd season at AA. All 6 of the players involved in this trade will be under team control through at least 2011.
January 29, 2008: Traded Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.
Obviously, there were a lot of factors that went into trading the 2 time Cy Young Award winner, with his pending free agency after the season being the main one. Santana had his worst season as a full time Twins' starter in 2008, but was still a +4.6 win pitcher. In his first season with the Mets, he almost duplicated that season with a +4.8 win season and he's on pace for a similar season again this year. Those are far cries from his three straight +7 win seasons for the Twins from 2004-2006, but it's still enough to make him worth his contract. Gomez, mainly because of his excellent defense, has been a net positive for the Twins, but he hasn't shown as much improvement as hoped for at the plate or on the basepaths. His 2009 statistics are very similar to 2008 thus far, but he has dropped his O-Swing% by about 25%. Humber and Mulvey have both had cups of coffee in the big leagues, with Mulvey being the latest attempt to fix the bullpen. Mulvey has a 3.64 FIP in AAA this year after posting a 4.06 FIP last year, and he still has a shot to be a decent starting pitcher. On the other hand, time is running out for Humber, who is no longer on the 40 man roster and has had a FIP around 4.9 for Rochester the past 2 seasons. The last piece in the deal, Guerra, was supposed to be a potential ace. He was recently promoted to AA, but not really based on his performance. His fastball is still only around 87-88 MPH and his strikeout rate has decreased while his walk rate has increased since his 2007 season with the Mets high A affiliate.
August 25, 2008: Traded Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
This was Smith's attempt to fix the bullpen last season after failing to address it prior to the non-waiver trading deadline. Guardado turned out not to be the fix the Twins were looking for. His ERA overstated the problems that Everyday Eddie had (4.42 FIP), but he was not the reliable late-inning arm the Twins were expecting, as Ron Gardenhire ceded those duties to Jose Mijares by the end of September. Hamburger is now 22 and pitching in single A for the Rangers. He has posted a respectable 4.01 FIP in 46.2 innings out of the bullpen this season. He could make the majors someday, but is not a top prospect and still has a ways to go.
So, there you have it. Not exactly an impressive resume, huh? Maybe we should hope that Smith doesn't make a trade in the next week.
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Monday, May 18, 2009
Yankee Stadium: Unkind
With the loss last night, the Twins are now 3 for their last 26 at Yankee Stadium. That's really annoying because the games against the Yankees are about the only ones I get to watch on TV, so I usually wind up watching a bunch of clunkers. This series, despite the four losses, was not bad, and the Twins were quite unlucky to come away with zero wins. The Yankees won the four games by a combined 5 runs, and the first 3 of them were in walk-off style.
Monday's game was another tough loss, as the Twins battled back from an early hole to bring the go-ahead run to the plate in the ninth inning. After Glen Perkins was unable to throw effectively at all, R.A. Dickey replaced him and performed admirably, which afforded the Twins the opportunity to mount a comeback. He threw 4 1/3 scoreless innings, and was followed by Luis Ayala, Craig Breslow, and Jesse Crain. All told, the bullpen gave up only one run on Mark Teixeira's second homer in 7 1/3 innings.
Before Perkins imploded, the Twins had already taken a 2-0 lead on RBI singles by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Morneau would go on to collect four hits, including two doubles, and Denard Span hit his second home run of the year. Span also picked up an RBI single on a soft liner that Derek Jeter terribly misjudged. I'll take any chance to mock Jeter's extremely overrated fielding but this time it was completely deserved.
Carlos Gomez had himself a nice game, going 2-3 with a hit by pitch and a walk. So many times I'd seen Gomez come up way overanxious in close and late situations, but in this game he worked a 7-pitch walk with 2 outs in the ninth inning. It was very impressive to see him lay off pitches in that high pressure situation, especially when it stood in stark contrast to his overagressiveness in the seventh inning when the bases were loaded. Mike Redmond, though, followed up with a ground out in his pinch-hitting appearance for Nick Punto to end the game. By the way, I definitely agreed with the decision to bring Redmond in to pinch-hit, but it was unfortunate that he was the best option.
No matter how you look at it, a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees is always tough to live down, but the close games the Twins played made it both harder to stomach and more encouraging. Hopefully they can put it together for an entire game as they move to Chicago to face the other team I hate, the White Sox.
Monday's game was another tough loss, as the Twins battled back from an early hole to bring the go-ahead run to the plate in the ninth inning. After Glen Perkins was unable to throw effectively at all, R.A. Dickey replaced him and performed admirably, which afforded the Twins the opportunity to mount a comeback. He threw 4 1/3 scoreless innings, and was followed by Luis Ayala, Craig Breslow, and Jesse Crain. All told, the bullpen gave up only one run on Mark Teixeira's second homer in 7 1/3 innings.
Before Perkins imploded, the Twins had already taken a 2-0 lead on RBI singles by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Morneau would go on to collect four hits, including two doubles, and Denard Span hit his second home run of the year. Span also picked up an RBI single on a soft liner that Derek Jeter terribly misjudged. I'll take any chance to mock Jeter's extremely overrated fielding but this time it was completely deserved.
Carlos Gomez had himself a nice game, going 2-3 with a hit by pitch and a walk. So many times I'd seen Gomez come up way overanxious in close and late situations, but in this game he worked a 7-pitch walk with 2 outs in the ninth inning. It was very impressive to see him lay off pitches in that high pressure situation, especially when it stood in stark contrast to his overagressiveness in the seventh inning when the bases were loaded. Mike Redmond, though, followed up with a ground out in his pinch-hitting appearance for Nick Punto to end the game. By the way, I definitely agreed with the decision to bring Redmond in to pinch-hit, but it was unfortunate that he was the best option.
No matter how you look at it, a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees is always tough to live down, but the close games the Twins played made it both harder to stomach and more encouraging. Hopefully they can put it together for an entire game as they move to Chicago to face the other team I hate, the White Sox.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
An extra half-inning? No problem.
At last, Francisco Liriano had an effective start. You could argue that his first start was pretty good (he only gave up 4 hits in 7 innings, but did allow 4 runs), but this was definitely a good one. He lost it a little bit towards the end, as he allowed 7 of his 9 baserunners after the start of the fifth inning, but the overall line was very solid. I thought Ron Gardenhire made a good decision to take him out after allowing two consecutive singles in the seventh. Certainly, it was tempting to leave him out there to get those nice, even seven innings, and he only needed one more out, but it was the right decision. I wasn't sure about bringing Matt Guerrier in, but hey, it worked out. Jose Mijares followed that by striking out the side, which gave Joe Nathan a save opportunity (finally!). Unfortunately, he allowed a lead-off home run to Ben Zobrist, and then gave us a scare by allowing two more baserunners. Despite the game-tying homer, that would be the last frame the Twins would pitch.
Even though Liriano could no longer pick up the W, that didn't mean the Twins couldn't, as the offense wasted no time in getting that run back. Singles by Jose Morales and Denard Span and a pinch-walk by Brendan Harris loaded the bases with one out for Justin Morneau. Unsurprisingly, Morneau ended the game then and there, though not in the expected fashion. Facing a 5-man infield (how often do you see that?), Morneau beat out the relay throw to first on a potential double-play ball to allow the winning run to score. After starting the game with a two-run homer in the first, Morneau added a third RBI to his tally to avoid extra innings.
On a negative note, Jose Morales allowed another three stolen bases and yet again did not throw out any runners. This is an obvious con to him being on the roster instead of Mike Redmond (if, as I suggested, he goes on the DL at some point), in addition to his MLB-leading 4 passed balls (he's also second among catchers with 2 errors). At the Seth Speaks live game chat, there was a discussion about the possibility of keeping three catchers and sending down Carlos Gomez or Brian Buscher. Personally, at this point, I think that may be exactly what Gomez needs, but if the Twins were willing to do that, I would have thought they'd have done it last year. As Seth pointed out, if he stays there for five or six weeks, that would have the added benefit of pushing back the first year he'd be eligible for arbitration (and subsequently free agency).
With the victory, the Twins are now 4-0 in one-run games. They're the only team that has yet to lose such a game, while the Rockies are the only team that has yet to win one (they're 0-4). The Twins still sit in fourth place in the Central, but are just 1.5 games out of first here in the early-going.
Even though Liriano could no longer pick up the W, that didn't mean the Twins couldn't, as the offense wasted no time in getting that run back. Singles by Jose Morales and Denard Span and a pinch-walk by Brendan Harris loaded the bases with one out for Justin Morneau. Unsurprisingly, Morneau ended the game then and there, though not in the expected fashion. Facing a 5-man infield (how often do you see that?), Morneau beat out the relay throw to first on a potential double-play ball to allow the winning run to score. After starting the game with a two-run homer in the first, Morneau added a third RBI to his tally to avoid extra innings.
On a negative note, Jose Morales allowed another three stolen bases and yet again did not throw out any runners. This is an obvious con to him being on the roster instead of Mike Redmond (if, as I suggested, he goes on the DL at some point), in addition to his MLB-leading 4 passed balls (he's also second among catchers with 2 errors). At the Seth Speaks live game chat, there was a discussion about the possibility of keeping three catchers and sending down Carlos Gomez or Brian Buscher. Personally, at this point, I think that may be exactly what Gomez needs, but if the Twins were willing to do that, I would have thought they'd have done it last year. As Seth pointed out, if he stays there for five or six weeks, that would have the added benefit of pushing back the first year he'd be eligible for arbitration (and subsequently free agency).
With the victory, the Twins are now 4-0 in one-run games. They're the only team that has yet to lose such a game, while the Rockies are the only team that has yet to win one (they're 0-4). The Twins still sit in fourth place in the Central, but are just 1.5 games out of first here in the early-going.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Carlos Gomez's New Approach
Coming into the 2009 season, there was a lot of chatter about Carlos Gomez's new approach at the plate. Gomez himself told the media that he had dedicated himself in the off-season to taking more pitches. This was a change that I, and many others, were excited about, as one of Gomez's biggest problems at the plate last season was his over-eagerness and unwillingness to take pitches. His O-Swing % (the percentage of pitches out of the strike zone swung at) was 36.8 %, 11.4 percentage points above the league average. It was also the 7th highest in the majors of the 213 players with at least 400 plate appearances. His walk rate of 4.2% in 2008 was the 13th lowest in the majors, and only Kevin Kouzmanoff had a worse BB:K ratio than Gomez's 0.18 last season. And, of course, his .296 OBP, part of an underwhelming overall line of .258/.296/.360, ranked in the bottom ten.
However, Gomez's talk over the off-season of starting off batting practice sessions by just watching 50 pitches go by brought hope that the 2009 season would bring a new approach. Nearly three weeks into the season, though, it seems on the surface that nothing has changed: his O-Swing% is 34.5, walk rate 5.0%, BB:K ratio 0.20, and OBP .250. All in all, an overall line of .211/.250/.316 does not show any improvement from last season. However, underneath these similarities, there is a difference in Gomez's approach--it's just not clear whether it's a good one. Previous to this season, his overall Swing % (the percentage of pitches swung at) was well above the league average, but thus far in 2009 it has fallen 8 percentage points to right around league average. Obviously, since he's been swinging at only marginally fewer balls, he must be swinging at significantly fewer strikes. Sure enough, his Z-Swing% (the percentage of pitches in strike zone swung at), which in 2007 and 2008 was around the league average of 66%, is at 55.4% so far.
Last year, Gomez's approach was to swing at everything. This year, it seems that his new approach is to swing at nothing. It doesn't seem that he's had any measurable increase in ability to recognize pitches, as he's swinging at just as many balls and actually making contact 15% less of the time on them. What's really changed about his approach is that's he's indiscriminately letting pitches go by, even though many of these new takes are on pitches within the zone. Of course, this could just be noise in a small sample size, but it's not exactly encouraging data to start the season. Gomez is one of my favorite Twins and his defense gives him at least one valuable skill (unlike swing-happy teammate Delmon Young), but so far this season he has not shown the much-talked about improvement at the plate.
However, Gomez's talk over the off-season of starting off batting practice sessions by just watching 50 pitches go by brought hope that the 2009 season would bring a new approach. Nearly three weeks into the season, though, it seems on the surface that nothing has changed: his O-Swing% is 34.5, walk rate 5.0%, BB:K ratio 0.20, and OBP .250. All in all, an overall line of .211/.250/.316 does not show any improvement from last season. However, underneath these similarities, there is a difference in Gomez's approach--it's just not clear whether it's a good one. Previous to this season, his overall Swing % (the percentage of pitches swung at) was well above the league average, but thus far in 2009 it has fallen 8 percentage points to right around league average. Obviously, since he's been swinging at only marginally fewer balls, he must be swinging at significantly fewer strikes. Sure enough, his Z-Swing% (the percentage of pitches in strike zone swung at), which in 2007 and 2008 was around the league average of 66%, is at 55.4% so far.
Last year, Gomez's approach was to swing at everything. This year, it seems that his new approach is to swing at nothing. It doesn't seem that he's had any measurable increase in ability to recognize pitches, as he's swinging at just as many balls and actually making contact 15% less of the time on them. What's really changed about his approach is that's he's indiscriminately letting pitches go by, even though many of these new takes are on pitches within the zone. Of course, this could just be noise in a small sample size, but it's not exactly encouraging data to start the season. Gomez is one of my favorite Twins and his defense gives him at least one valuable skill (unlike swing-happy teammate Delmon Young), but so far this season he has not shown the much-talked about improvement at the plate.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Carlos Gomez: 13 SB
Carlos Gomez stole two bases last night to give him 13 on the season before being carted off after getting hit in the head. The only updates I've seen have just said that he was OK afterwards, but I'm not sure if he's expected to miss any games. Anyways, I have a few days before my next final, so I found some time to waste today and I used it to compile some baserunning stats about Gomez.
I gathered the pitch-by-pitch data (from baseballreference.com) for all the times that Gomez has been on base thus far and compiled some statistics on it. I did this all by hand, so of course it could be a little inaccurate, but I did the best I could.
Gomez has been on 1st base 21 times this year with 2nd base open. Here's the breakdown of what has happened:
Steals 2nd base: 11 (52.4%)
Ball in play: 8 (38.1%)
Caught stealing 2nd base: 1 (4.8%)
Balk: 1 (4.8%)
Since two of those balls in play were first-pitch sac bunts, which means Gomez had no chance to steal, they shouldn't really count when trying to measure his aggressiveness. Using this data, we can see that Gomez has tried to steal 2nd 67% (12/18) of the times he's been on first with 2nd open (discounting the bunts and the balk). Something that I attempted to calculate as well was the attention paid to Gomez by the pitcher. In his 21 times on first base with 2nd open, there have been 26 throws over to first, 3 pitchouts, and the 1 balk. In total, pitchers threw 32 of 63 pitches (50.8%) for strikes while Gomez was on first. That's a low percentage, but it's way too small a sample size to actually say anything about whether he could have an affect on the pitcher's concentration, especially when the pitchouts are taken out and the strike percentage rises to 53.3%. In those 63 pitches, Gomez stole 11 bases, got caught once, and was running on a foul ball or ball in play 4 times. Obviously, some of these could be hit and runs, but since there is no way for me to know that, I'll just assume they were all steal attempts. In that case, he has been running on 16 of the 63 pitches thrown while he's on first base, which is 25.4%. If I had something to compare that to, it might actually mean something, but for now I'll just have to say that it seems very high to me.
As could be expected, Gomez has been much less active once he gets to second base. Here's what's happened the 14 times that he has been on 2nd base with no one on third (keep in mind that many of these occurred as a result of him stealing 2nd):
Ball in play: 12 (85.7%)
Steals 3rd base: 2 (14.3%)
Caught stealing 3rd base: 0 (0.0%)
As you can see, he is much less active. In addition, there have only been 3 throws over to 2nd base. I think the best way to compare pickoff throws is per pitch that Gomez is on base, in which the ratio is 0.41 throws/pitch for first base and only 0.04 (3/78) for second base. There haven't been any pitchouts with Gomez at 2nd either, and the strike percentage is slightly higher at 56.4%. Gomez did run once on a foul ball and once on a ball in play, which pushes his running percentage per pitch up to 6.4%, still much lower than 1st base.
I gathered the pitch-by-pitch data (from baseballreference.com) for all the times that Gomez has been on base thus far and compiled some statistics on it. I did this all by hand, so of course it could be a little inaccurate, but I did the best I could.
Gomez has been on 1st base 21 times this year with 2nd base open. Here's the breakdown of what has happened:
Steals 2nd base: 11 (52.4%)
Ball in play: 8 (38.1%)
Caught stealing 2nd base: 1 (4.8%)
Balk: 1 (4.8%)
Since two of those balls in play were first-pitch sac bunts, which means Gomez had no chance to steal, they shouldn't really count when trying to measure his aggressiveness. Using this data, we can see that Gomez has tried to steal 2nd 67% (12/18) of the times he's been on first with 2nd open (discounting the bunts and the balk). Something that I attempted to calculate as well was the attention paid to Gomez by the pitcher. In his 21 times on first base with 2nd open, there have been 26 throws over to first, 3 pitchouts, and the 1 balk. In total, pitchers threw 32 of 63 pitches (50.8%) for strikes while Gomez was on first. That's a low percentage, but it's way too small a sample size to actually say anything about whether he could have an affect on the pitcher's concentration, especially when the pitchouts are taken out and the strike percentage rises to 53.3%. In those 63 pitches, Gomez stole 11 bases, got caught once, and was running on a foul ball or ball in play 4 times. Obviously, some of these could be hit and runs, but since there is no way for me to know that, I'll just assume they were all steal attempts. In that case, he has been running on 16 of the 63 pitches thrown while he's on first base, which is 25.4%. If I had something to compare that to, it might actually mean something, but for now I'll just have to say that it seems very high to me.
As could be expected, Gomez has been much less active once he gets to second base. Here's what's happened the 14 times that he has been on 2nd base with no one on third (keep in mind that many of these occurred as a result of him stealing 2nd):
Ball in play: 12 (85.7%)
Steals 3rd base: 2 (14.3%)
Caught stealing 3rd base: 0 (0.0%)
As you can see, he is much less active. In addition, there have only been 3 throws over to 2nd base. I think the best way to compare pickoff throws is per pitch that Gomez is on base, in which the ratio is 0.41 throws/pitch for first base and only 0.04 (3/78) for second base. There haven't been any pitchouts with Gomez at 2nd either, and the strike percentage is slightly higher at 56.4%. Gomez did run once on a foul ball and once on a ball in play, which pushes his running percentage per pitch up to 6.4%, still much lower than 1st base.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
What alien creature infiltrated Craig Monroe's body...
and suddenly turned its host into Minnesota's most important player? Really--how does Craig Monroe single-handedly provide the offense for the Twins in yesterday's game after doing close to nothing for the first three weeks of the season?
Well, however it happened, it sure happened at a good time. Monroe hit his first home run and added two more hits, along with three RBIs, in order to carry the offense. Just when everybody was calling for his head (OK, it wasn't that bad, but only because he hadn't been playing much and didn't have an opportunity to show off his suckiness), all of a sudden he is hitting .300. He's been under a lot of scrutiny since his signing, because of how the Twins overpaid, but maybe he should be given more of a chance. Or perhaps I'll change my mind when he plays next time and goes 0-5 with four strikeouts.
Oh, you say someone did do that yesterday? Carlos Gomez, you say? His batting average has plummeted all the way into the .230 range and he's not drawing walks or hitting for power really. How much are the Twins willing to watch him struggle? Obviously, there has to be some limit; if he were to hit .050 for the next month, he wouldn't stay in the majors. But the real question is, where exactly is this limit?
The bullpen was great in following Livan Hernandez. Joe Nathan moved to a perfect 7 for 7 in save opportunities. Jason Kubel had a very bloopy bloop single to center to drive in the game-winning run in the eighth inning. All in all, a solid win to get back to .500.
Well, however it happened, it sure happened at a good time. Monroe hit his first home run and added two more hits, along with three RBIs, in order to carry the offense. Just when everybody was calling for his head (OK, it wasn't that bad, but only because he hadn't been playing much and didn't have an opportunity to show off his suckiness), all of a sudden he is hitting .300. He's been under a lot of scrutiny since his signing, because of how the Twins overpaid, but maybe he should be given more of a chance. Or perhaps I'll change my mind when he plays next time and goes 0-5 with four strikeouts.
Oh, you say someone did do that yesterday? Carlos Gomez, you say? His batting average has plummeted all the way into the .230 range and he's not drawing walks or hitting for power really. How much are the Twins willing to watch him struggle? Obviously, there has to be some limit; if he were to hit .050 for the next month, he wouldn't stay in the majors. But the real question is, where exactly is this limit?
The bullpen was great in following Livan Hernandez. Joe Nathan moved to a perfect 7 for 7 in save opportunities. Jason Kubel had a very bloopy bloop single to center to drive in the game-winning run in the eighth inning. All in all, a solid win to get back to .500.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Statistical Predictions
Well, guesses really. But doesn't it sound a lot more official when I call them predictions? Or maybe I should call them projections. Yeah, that really sounds official. So these will be my statistical projections for the Twins players in 2008. You'll probably disagree with some, perhaps all, but I'll have fun looking back in October to see just how dumb I was those six months ago. Without further ado...
Joe Mauer: .307/.394/.482, 18 HR, 89 RBI, 11 SB
Justin Morneau: .288/.360/.553, 36 HR, 122 RBI, 1 SB
Brendan Harris: .272/.349/.406, 11 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB
Adam Everett: .250/.331/.369, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 6 SB
Mike Lamb: .266/.340/.418, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB
Michael Cuddyer: .281/.351/.441, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 7 SB
Carlos Gomez: .248/.317/.379, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 25 SB
Delmon Young: .295/.332/.509, 27 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB
Jason Kubel: .314/.382/.534, 26 HR, 98 RBI, 3 SB
In reality, I thought of these as I typed them, and it took me no more than fifteen minutes. So, there was no research done, not much thought put into it, just gut feelings. And I'm sure that I have a huge bias because of my Twins fandom, but what's wrong with being optimistic?
As a side note, I may do projections for pitchers but it's a lot more up in the air, and I don't want to embarrass myself too much.
Joe Mauer: .307/.394/.482, 18 HR, 89 RBI, 11 SB
Justin Morneau: .288/.360/.553, 36 HR, 122 RBI, 1 SB
Brendan Harris: .272/.349/.406, 11 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB
Adam Everett: .250/.331/.369, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 6 SB
Mike Lamb: .266/.340/.418, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB
Michael Cuddyer: .281/.351/.441, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 7 SB
Carlos Gomez: .248/.317/.379, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 25 SB
Delmon Young: .295/.332/.509, 27 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB
Jason Kubel: .314/.382/.534, 26 HR, 98 RBI, 3 SB
In reality, I thought of these as I typed them, and it took me no more than fifteen minutes. So, there was no research done, not much thought put into it, just gut feelings. And I'm sure that I have a huge bias because of my Twins fandom, but what's wrong with being optimistic?
As a side note, I may do projections for pitchers but it's a lot more up in the air, and I don't want to embarrass myself too much.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
On to Queens
It's finally over. And after all that waiting, it's very disappointing. The Twins have agreed to trade Johan Santana to the Mets for 4 of the Mets' prospects: OF Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber. No Fernando Martinez. No Mike Pelfrey. No Ryan Church. I really like Gomez and Guerra in this deal, but those last two pitchers do not seem special to me at all. On the bright side, at least he didn't go to the Yankees, but I can still go watch Johan pitch in Shea while wearing my Twins' #57 jersey. Anyways, possibly more to come later, if I can recover from the shock of the lack of quality coming to Minnesota. (To be clear, I'm not angry or one of thos epeople calling for Bill Smith's job, I'm just disappointed in the return for Santana.)
Friday, January 4, 2008
Mets Rumors
Well, it certainly has been a while. With little news over the holidays and a lot of holiday things going on, we didn't have a chance to make any posts. And I personally haven't written in probably two months, as Twin #2 took over the reigns because I got very busy with schoolwork. However, with that over, you can expect sporadic postings amounting to a few each week until the season draws nearer.
Today I wanted to re-visit the Johan Santana issue since it has been a while and even a rehashing of where it stands would be useful. I've read the general feeling around the league is that he will be traded and that Bill Smith knows he "needs" to trade him. And I think most of us believe now that he should be traded, so that is a good sign. The problem is that the offers just aren't all that scintillating at this point. The Red Sox and Yankees haven't changed their original offers; in fact, the only possible change it seems is the Yankees considering removing Phillip Hughes from the deal.
The one new piece or news (or more accurately, the new rumor) circulating is that the Mets would offer any four of their prospects in a deal for Santana. Throughout the whole process, the Mets have certainly seemed the most interested in Santana and the ones willing to give up the most for him. But again, there was a problem with this situation, it being that the Mets didn't have much to offer. Still, if this rumor is true, which is never easy to decifer, it could be tempting, especially because Santana would wind up in the NL.
Just to look at a possibility, it could be something like Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Martinez is an 18-year old prospect who finished last year in Double-A. Although his stats are by no means great, scouts are touting him as a huge prospect, while still raw. Gomez is further along, as he played in the majors last year, but does not have as high of a ceiling. He is still young too, at age 21, and is as fast as they come. He played only 36 games in Triple-A before being promoted to the big leagues. Gomez might be able to fill centerfield for the Twins this year, and I would definitely be willing to count on him filling it in 2009.
Guerra is almost a pitching version of Martinez. He is only 18, pitching in high-A, and has only average stats. He isn't touted as highly as Martinez but many believe he will be very good. Mulvey, although not a great prospect, is one of the Mets' best pitching prospects. He pitched just one game in Triple-A last year, though, so he would definitely not be ready to step in this year. This is the major hang-up on this deal: after trading Santana (in this deal) and Garza, I would like to see the Twins pick up a major league-ready arm. The Mets don't really have that to offer, whereas the Red Sox have Lester and the Yankees have Hughes.
So let's continue to play the waiting game.
Today I wanted to re-visit the Johan Santana issue since it has been a while and even a rehashing of where it stands would be useful. I've read the general feeling around the league is that he will be traded and that Bill Smith knows he "needs" to trade him. And I think most of us believe now that he should be traded, so that is a good sign. The problem is that the offers just aren't all that scintillating at this point. The Red Sox and Yankees haven't changed their original offers; in fact, the only possible change it seems is the Yankees considering removing Phillip Hughes from the deal.
The one new piece or news (or more accurately, the new rumor) circulating is that the Mets would offer any four of their prospects in a deal for Santana. Throughout the whole process, the Mets have certainly seemed the most interested in Santana and the ones willing to give up the most for him. But again, there was a problem with this situation, it being that the Mets didn't have much to offer. Still, if this rumor is true, which is never easy to decifer, it could be tempting, especially because Santana would wind up in the NL.
Just to look at a possibility, it could be something like Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Martinez is an 18-year old prospect who finished last year in Double-A. Although his stats are by no means great, scouts are touting him as a huge prospect, while still raw. Gomez is further along, as he played in the majors last year, but does not have as high of a ceiling. He is still young too, at age 21, and is as fast as they come. He played only 36 games in Triple-A before being promoted to the big leagues. Gomez might be able to fill centerfield for the Twins this year, and I would definitely be willing to count on him filling it in 2009.
Guerra is almost a pitching version of Martinez. He is only 18, pitching in high-A, and has only average stats. He isn't touted as highly as Martinez but many believe he will be very good. Mulvey, although not a great prospect, is one of the Mets' best pitching prospects. He pitched just one game in Triple-A last year, though, so he would definitely not be ready to step in this year. This is the major hang-up on this deal: after trading Santana (in this deal) and Garza, I would like to see the Twins pick up a major league-ready arm. The Mets don't really have that to offer, whereas the Red Sox have Lester and the Yankees have Hughes.
So let's continue to play the waiting game.
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